Footy finals are almost finished, and spring racing is well and truly in the air. The Caulfield card is the best we’ve seen this season, by quite a margin, with the Underwood Stakes and Rupert Clarke Stakes the headline acts of the program.
Fawkner is the proven champion. He’s a dual Group 1 winner at the track, has drawn a cosy inside alley to get the run of the race, and will be awfully hard to topple.
Contributor was the sensation of the Sydney autumn, but was a first-up flop in the Feehan behind The Cleaner when he was plain through the line. His second-up record isn’t as good as his first-up stats, so he’s got it in front of him to turn his form around.
The Cleaner has come back as well as ever, and will give them all something to catch. He was just worn down by Mourinho first-up in the Lawrence, but bounced right back to defy all rivals in the Feehan in an impressive display. He’s a player here.
Mourinho was, along with Contributor, the disappointment of the Feehan, but has a winning record over 1800 metres at Caulfield, thanks to his victory over Happy Trails in the St George back in the autumn. He’s drawn to get his favoured box seat position.
Weary is racing well without winning this campaign, continuing to do his best work late and storming home from the tail. While he is mixing it with the best, winning these races does seem to be a bit beyond him, and he might need to be targeted towards easier assignments.
The new New Zealand four-year-olds, Mongolian Khan and Volkstok’n’barrell, can have a say. The former will be better for his good first-up run in the Makybe Diva, while the latter didn’t get his chance in the same race, and is capable of bouncing right back.
Sertorius has had an interrupted prep, and is a month between runs into the Underwood. He’s a good second-up horse, but this is a different kettle of fish. Dandino might well have won the Makybe Diva if he had clear running, and will be sure to be running on.
Dibayani is ticking over pleasingly as he heads towards the Caulfield Cup. Magicool doesn’t look cut out for WFA racing at this stage, particularly over distances short of 2000 metres. Hi World has produced two even runs, in the Memsie and the Makybe Diva, but lacks the touch of class required at this level.
Selections
1. Fawkner
2.The Cleaner
3.Dandino
4.Mongolian Khan
The Rupert Clarke Stakes has assembled a deep field in what should be a memorable edition of the race.
Disposition is the market-elect, a smart and progressive horse that is yet to run a bad race in his career. He returned from a spell in fine style with a win for new trainers the Freedman brothers, and Damien Oliver will get every chance to steer him home from barrier three.
Under the Louvre has been flying over the last 12 months, with two wins and five placings from eight starts in that time, including a Group 1 second and third. No horse finishes harder from the back of the field than he does, and his fast finish in the Bobbie Lewis had ‘Rupert Clarke winner’ written all over it.
Nothing from the Bobbie Lewis is going to finish in front of Under the Louvre, so you can rule out Lucky Hussler, Amorino, Rich Enuff and Gregers.
The Let’s Elope for the mares is another key form reference, and winner Amicus is the horse to follow out of it. Caulfield is a track she always races well at, being a Group 1 winner there to boot. Likely to go back from a wide gate, watch for her to be making a run with Under the Louvre.
Cosmic Endeavour is coming from the same race, but isn’t well weighted as a mare in this field.
Charmed Harmony is the 1400-metre specialist of the field, stringing together four wins in a row over the distance coming in. He’s racing against a bit more cream this time though, and is unlikely to get his own way in front as he has been doing.
Stratum Star is a serious racehorse, and comes in after a freshen, last seen running the closest of thirds in the Memsie Stakes behind Boban.
Dropping significantly in weight coming back to a handicap after almost winning at Group 1 WFA is usually a sound reason for thinking a horse will run well, and Stratum Star is no exception. He’s one of the three main chances in the race.
Strawberry Boy is an honest horse that is never far away, and he can be counted on to run well. Fast N Rocking has been running well under big weights, but 1400 metres is absolutely as far as he wants it, if that. This may not be his race, but he’ll be winning something this spring.
Abidewithme deserves respect too, making a winning return in weaker grade, but she’s run into a tough race here, and an even tougher barrier.
This should be a truly run affair, setting the race up for every runner to have their chance.
Selections
1. Under the Louvre
2. Stratum Star
3. Disposition
4. Amicus
joe
Guest
Nice call on the trifecta prediction in the Rupert Clarke
kv joef
Roar Guru
Nice overview Cam. Reckon there is a bit of harshness concerning contributor. i have him very close to fawkner (1pt) and i haven't heard much wallowing and gnashing of teeth from Godolphin over his last run. i don't disagree with your appraisal of his effort, workmanlike at best but sometimes workmanlike is good. tomorrow will surely highlight his spring path allowing highland reel has gone into quarantine, so everyone has to be on their best behaviour. his 2nd-up form isnt too ordinary having accounted for Hartnell and He's Your Man in the Chipping Norton last autumn. Good to see McDonald back on him and back at the track where opened his aust. campaign successfully. hope the NZ'ers show a bit tomorrow to add spice to the spring. great days racing in both states.
andrew
Guest
Underwood stks. One my of fave meetings of the year. All the great racing without all the tossers in bright suits and crocodile tan shoes. Lots of form done, but tight on typing time today. Note some element of fluidty to form required during the meeting as some formlines will be enhanced or diminished through early results which is a factor. Good to have MV back on Friday nights. Unfortunately, I’m going to the show tonight, so with that in mind, simply didn’t bother doing any form. That said, I might need a winner to cover the exuberant costs or I’m starting sat morning about -$200 already. CAUL 1 – 3 main chances are the 4yo mares in 6, 11, 12 who raced against each other last autumn. Matajila has benefit one run back fitness wise, gets in the lightest, and blinkers go on first time. 2 – happy to be on firehouse rock ew, who is shaping well for this and suspect its been booked in for him, as opposed to an afternthought. Both runs this prep been good for differing reasons. But his 3rd up form is very good, winning at caul in a decent race last spring 3rd up and then running 3rd at caul to alpine eagle when 3rd up in autumn. Level weights obviously suit him very well, relative to ratings. In fact, his overall caul form is very good too. overall win rate a concern, but has had 7 runs in group races, and this is a weak race. Obv beat him Kansas sunflower last time who was ridden cold, but she has been a busy girl and at double the odds, on an ew basis firehouse will do me. Not sure why loved up is so short at $6…..cummings horse has a hope but wont get me 4th run into first prep travelling and first go anti-clockwise at $3. 3 – craftiness deserved fave, but getting in very tight now. im plump for quarterback ew, who was good first up, beating kuro home (both were unlucky, kuro more so) at WFA and meets it 3kgs better. Has a good 2nd up record, with 2 wins and 3rd to hucklebuck. initially trained to get out to a mile, but think they now worked out he is just best as a run on sprinter. Good caul form too. think he gets a race with strong tempo up front, and gate 10 perfect to sit 3 wide with cover and blend in out wide. Good ew chance at $12, possibly skew it more the place, or go a quin/duet with fave. Against Sabatini and kuro. 4 – no firm view. Cant back the toppy on form even up in trip and blinkers on, but concede it could win. The others are limited. Forced to bet, I would go at first sight to place (around $3) given its caul form is good with a 2nd to (then flying) December draw and our voodoo prince and dry track form is solid and james mc Donald a positive booking. 5 – cracking race. No firm view. A lot to learn. Barriers crucial at 1400m start, and this favours Pasadena girl significantly. 6 – no view. Understand why ready for victory is fave, but he is hardly a ‘crack colt’ (1 win 5 starts), rather possibly just the most consistent, or best of average bunch. Im still waiting for that ‘crack colt’ to leap out from the pack. Perhaps it will be sat. 7 – my posts on fawkner are excessive and require no duplication. So, focusing on race shape here only, we note the presence of the cleaner means its truly run. This gets a lot off the bit and chasing. Fawkner will not suffer from this. In fact, I hope ollie lets the cleaner slip away 3 lengths or so on the turn, rather than ride him hard and possibly be exposed last bit from another swooper. Impossible not to see fawkner getting anything but the gun run and sure to get off the rails given the cleaner wont fold it in at the 300m. not sure why contributor is $4, should be longer, was beaten fair and square by bagman and kenjorwood last time at WFA – imagine what fawkner would do to that duo !!. an obvious top selection. Reckon the heavy money will come again for him. $3.50 a very backable price. $1.70 the place is available in some dispatches and this is a ‘gift’. Staggered if he didn’t run top 3. Im backing him to win, but having many other bets from the day into him to place for that extra 70% of cream. 8 – keen under the louvre who was super run last time and loves a race where the tempo is strong. Preparation all geared around this race to peak. Astute stable. Doesn’t get 1600m, so this is not a stepping stone to Toorak. Not being geared to 1200m sprints. This is the grand final. And its all going like clockwork with ok first up run, and good 2nd up run, suggesting a peak 3rd up. proven this class. The barrier was the final straw – gate 6, simply perfect. Sits 4 or 5 pairs back off a hot speed, one off the rails….and explodes final 400m. great ew bet. Had a heavy parlay fawkner and it to both place at $3.80. but will back him to win also. disposition main and obv danger. For a big field, going skinny this leg of quad. 9 – looking down the bottom here. 9, 12, 13, 14 go in the quad. Happy to be against iggimacool and kenjorwood. No firm view though to split these 4. SYD 1 – have to back nazir with blinkers going on first time for this half to norzita after good 1st up win then torrid time 2nd up when up in trip carrying weight. Tougher race, but at $10 a few coins will be put on. 4 – flamboyant lass. 5 – vanburgh 8 – bold circle. ADL 2 – cocao doll was tipped by me a few weeks back, heavily backed then scr. I suggest you listen to the stokes interview on RSN website on Thursday where he basically calls this horse a group class filly and that she is coming to melb. Given her trial win (over subsequent 4l winner, who was competitive in melb in a good 3yo race on wed), this seems just like an easy kick off maiden win. Leading trainer and jockey combine. Plenty of races for her at caul coming up. not like price, hayes, moody, smerdon are taking anything over. Just the local SA horses to compete with. Im keen. he price is likely to only tumble. 3 – dropped was good last time, but im with éclair attack to make it an early double for stokes/tourner, not tourners best ride last time in small field. does conceded weight, but ill take my chances at $3.50. 4 – leonforte 5 – Brooklyn 7 – amiconi originale put in 2 super runs in ADL before being highly competitive in a very strong race in Vic last time, where staviva has since won again. Big drop in grade, but also drops in weight. Hopefully can come swooping home hard. SUN Coleraine 6 – Big Reel smashed them first up in same grade leading all the way. Draws gate 1 on a tight track. Only flop is on wet ground. Track will be watered with hurdle races, but if its not worse than a 5, they wont catch him (look for him at MV fri night in a 955 soon too). Best: Cocoa Doll, Fawkner, Amiconi Originale, Under the Louvre (ew).
Adam Page
Roar Guru
I can't see Disposition getting beat. Looking at them when they paraded in their respective races, Disposition had more improvement in him than Under The Louvre, and he was most impressive in winning. Looks a really good bet
Razzar
Guest
The Rupert Clark looks to have plenty of speed, and is Very likely to suit runners-on. Disposition won very softly last start, a good sit in this race will have him very hard to beat. Looks a 2/1 chance. Stratum Star competes at the highest of levels, laying in late possibly cost it victory last start. Very fit now and should be able to beat, all bar possibly disposition. Marked him 5/1 chance. Fortunately there are plenty of earlier races to view the general pattern of 'Heath' racing. Good luck punters.