We are now down to the final game of the season and what a grand final it promises to be. Hawthorn and the West Coast Eagles will do battle in the biggest match of the year at the MCG on Saturday afternoon.
The Hawks will aim to become the first team since the Brisbane Lions in 2001-3 to capture a hat-trick of flags, while the West Coast Eagles will attempt to win their fourth ever flag after previously winning in 1992, 1994 and 2006.
The impressive form shown by the Hawks and Eagles all year should make for an intriguing grand final, which for the first time since 2011 will pit the season’s two best attacking sides against each other.
Sam Mitchell shapes as the man the Eagles must stop if they are to have a chance of claiming its first premiership since 2006, while the Hawks will have their work cut out trying to shut down the trio of Josh Kennedy, Nic Naitanui and Matt Priddis, all of whom have played their hand for the westerners in 2015.
Here is your full guide to the 2015 AFL grand final.
Hawthorn versus West Coast Eagles
Saturday, October 3
2:30pm
Melbourne Cricket Ground
Results this season: Hawthorn 13.10 (88) defeated West Coast 11.8 (74) at Domain Stadium in Round 19; West Coast 14.12 (96) defeated Hawthorn 9.10 (64) at Domain Stadium in the second qualifying final.
After 205 matches and 820 quarters of football, only one match and four quarters remain in the season and it will be during those that this year’s premiers will be decided.
After a slow start to the season, whereby they divided their first eight games with four wins and four losses, many questioned whether the Hawks still had the desire to win a third consecutive premiership.
However, starting from Round 9, the Hawks would lose just twice more for the remainder of the regular season to finish in the top three for the fifth consecutive year and thus set up a qualifying final showdown against the Eagles in the west.
Again, their premiership credentials would come into question after they suffered a disastrous 32-point loss to the Eagles, during which they lost their leading goalkicker, Jack Gunston, with an ankle injury.
But just like they did earlier in the season, the Hawks would rebound to defeat the Adelaide Crows and Fremantle in their semi and preliminary finals by 74 and 27 points respectively.
Their recent premiership success and experience, and the likelihood that Gunston could return for the decider, will see them start favourites against a West Coast side that this season well and truly exceeded what was expected of them this year.
After finishing ninth and failing to beat a top-eight side last year, many did not give Adam Simpson’s men a chance of making the finals, let alone reach the grand final, this season.
They lost their reigning best and fairest Eric Mackenzie to a knee injury in the pre-season, and then lost Mitch Brown to the same injury in their Round 1 loss to the Western Bulldogs.
That, and a 30-point loss to Fremantle in the Western Derby on either side of a ten-goal performance by Josh Kennedy against Carlton at home, all but saw their chances written off.
Thrashings of the two expansion clubs (GWS and Gold Coast by 87 and 92 points respectively), on either side of a ten-point win over Port Adelaide at the Oval, did little to suggest that the Eagles would be serious contenders for the flag.
But as the season wore on, the Eagles would only get better and better. Led by their three most important players in Coleman Medallist Kennedy, ruckman Nic Naitanui and last year’s Brownlow Medallist Matt Priddis, the club would trip up just twice more en route to their first top-two finish since 2006.
Their 32-point defeat of the Hawks in the qualifying final saw them assume premiership favouritism, but after Alastair Clarkson’s men advanced to the grand final the hard way (having to defeat minor premiers Fremantle in Perth to do so), the two-time reigning premiers have once again reassumed that mantle.
Of the Eagles’ current squad, only Sharrod Wellingham, Sam Butler and ex-Hawk Xavier Ellis have played in a premiership side, let alone played in a grand final. Of that trio, only Butler remains from the club’s class of 2006 that defeated the Sydney Swans by a solitary point.
By contrast, from the Hawthorn side that defeated Fremantle in last Friday night’s preliminary final, only James Frawley and Billy Hartung are yet to play in a grand final. Ryan Schoenmakers is yet to feature in a premiership win, having previously been a part of the side that lost to the Swans in the 2012 decider.
It is this gulf in premiership experience that will see the Hawks start favourites in Saturday’s AFL grand final. While Alastair Clarkson’s men will be expected to mount the premiership dais for the third year in a row, all the Eagles can do is to put up the serious challenge the Swans didn’t last year.
Stats that matter
* This will be Hawthorn’s 19th grand final (12-6), while for the Eagles this will be their sixth (3-2).
* Hawthorn will be aiming for their 13th premiership, which would see them move to outright fourth overall on the premiership tally, behind only Carlton, Essendon (16 flags each) and Collingwood (15).
* West Coast, appearing in its first grand final in the post Chris Judd-Ben Cousins era, will be aiming for its fourth premiership. Its most recent flag came in 2006 when they defeated the Sydney Swans by just one point in the grand final.
* This will be only their second grand final meeting, and first since 1991.
* This is the first time since 2006 in which a grand final is a repeat of a qualifying final from the same finals series (Sydney and West Coast).
* This is the first 2 versus 3 grand final since 2005 (Sydney defeated West Coast).
* Up to six players could become four-time Hawthorn premiership players if they win on Saturday: Luke Hodge, Jarryd Roughead, Jordan Lewis, Sam Mitchell, Grant Birchall and Cyril Rioli.
* Hawthorn will be aiming to become the first team since the Brisbane Lions in 2001-2-3 to win a hat-trick of flags.
* West Coast will seek to join the likes of the Adelaide Crows (1996-7) and Geelong Cats (2006-7) in winning a flag after missing the finals the previous year.
* Sam Butler remains the only survivor from West Coast’s 2006 premiership winning side. He can join Drew Banfield (1994 and 2006) as the only dual West Coast premiership winning players if the Eagles win on Saturday.
* Hawthorn has only ever lost once (to the Sydney Swans, in 2012) to an interstate club in a grand final. That also remains the most recent instance in which an interstate team beat a Victorian team in the grand final.
* This is the fourth consecutive year in which an interstate team has appeared against a Victorian team in the grand final.
The verdict
Given Hawthorn and West Coast were the two best scoring sides during the regular season, don’t be surprised if a shootout eventuates, especially between the two leading goalkickers for their respective sides, Jack Gunston and Josh Kennedy.
Gunston and Sam Mitchell will be among the two players the Hawks will need to rely on if they are to join the Brisbane Lions (2001-3), Melbourne (1955-7) and Collingwood (1927-30) in winning at least three flags in succession.
Conversely, the Eagles’ hopes will hinge on who I have regularly identified as their three most important players: Kennedy, Naitanui and Priddis.
Kennedy’s 75 regular season goals saw him become just the second Eagle after Scott Cummings in 1999 to win the Coleman Medal, while ruckman Nic Naitanui and last year’s Brownlow Medallist Matt Priddis have been the reasons for the Eagles’ surge this year.
The Eagles were able to beat the Hawks without Priddis in the qualifying final but it will be a whole new ball game this Saturday afternoon, and the Hawks will have their hands full in trying to shut down the aforementioned Eagles trio.
While I think Adam Simpson’s men will put up a good challenge, given the season they had when they were written off by many at the start of the year, I still expect the Hawks to create history and win a third consecutive flag on Saturday afternoon.
Predictions
Match: Hawthorn by 15 points
Norm Smith Medal: Sam Mitchell (if Hawthorn wins), Matt Priddis (if West Coast wins).
Most goals: Josh Kennedy
Most disposals: Sam Mitchell
LM
Guest
The three consecutive performances stat is also wrong: rounds 15, 16, and 17 hawks defeated freo, sydney, and carlton by 72, 89, and 138 respectively. And as we now know, they backed up that string of big wins in the semi, prelim, and grand final.
jax
Guest
Whoever told you that was lying to you! I wrote the following a few days ago. If you want to know what really happened in the late 80's read on. I debunk the 'state side myth' and I also dispel the lie that WC had it easy. It was all made up and most people fell for it hook, line and sinker and almost 30 years later many are still in the dark about the origins of the AFL and the West Coast Eagles. 6-7 of the VFL clubs were technically bankrupt in 1986 and some others were close. The VFL was considering two options for their very survival. Merge clubs or expand. They chose to expand and collect license fees from interstate clubs to support ailing VFL clubs as that was the best revenue model that they could come up with and that is the AFL Commissions purpose to this very day (supporting VFL clubs, coveting the game for themselves and keeping their snouts in the trough to name a few). Here is a YouTube link to a Fox Footy Special of the conception and creation of the AFL and the role that the WCE played in it during those turbulent times including interviews with Ross Oakley, Richard Colless and John Worsfold just to name a few. It’s a great walk back down memory lane. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fm3SiTme-T0 Here’s the key take-aways from the show. * To appease the angry Victorian clubs the VFL significantly changed the original terms of the deal to the detriment of WC and for the benefit of the VFL and it’s clubs at the very last minute. * WC had to pay for their own travel and accommodation while the Victorian clubs would be subsidised. The Vic clubs may have had to travel a few times a year and they were paid to do it while WC traveled fortnightly (and more) but had to pay their own way. * The $4M license fee which was to be paid over 10 years was now due immediately with WC required to stump up the $4M in just 30 days. The VFL needed the money to buy the clubs votes - and some people try to tell me that backroom deals are a conspiracy. The AFL was borne out of a backroom via backhanders. That's me paraphrasing what Ross Oakley said in the video, watch it. * WC required another $6M to set up it’s infrastructure and pay its licensee fee to the WAFL so they actually needed $10M and quickly. * Five men, including Richard Colless dropped $1M of their own money down to start the WCE, not knowing if they’d ever see that money again. Colless said its the most expensive tie he's ever bought and that he has no regrets. There walks a truly great man (10 x Fitzpatrick and Gill), he should be on the Commission today but I digress. * The VFL then used the 5 mens money to coerce/bribe VFL clubs to accept the VFL's new revenue model (collecting license fees from interstate clubs to fund ailing VFL clubs) which is why the $4M was needed so urgently ($8M when you include Brisbane). Ross Oakley in the video states that a VFL Commissioner offered Fitzroy $666,000 for their vote and that the VFL got the vote and that vote broke a deadlock and WC and Brisbane were admitted into the VFL. Fitzroy officials were pulled to the side during an adjournment in the VFL club negotiations. Oakley’s words. Truth be told your VFL and it’s clubs very existence were saved by the benevolence and goodwill of 5 men from the West, watch the video. * WC’s list was reduced to 35 players while the Victorian clubs had 52 players and their own reserves side. WC got it’s first reserves side in 2014. * Victorian clubs recruited 17 of the best WAFL players after Oct 1st 1986 just weeks before the VFL clubs were due to vote on whether or not WC would be playing VFL in 1987. Richmond told Peter Wilson that they were going to be voting no and that the deal would not get done and to sign now or he’d be playing in the WAFL next year, Wilson signed. We lost a lot of great players like Bairstow, Winmar, Christian, Wilson, Starcevich, Spalding, Bewick and Mitchell in this manner during one final/dirty/unethical/late VFL raid on the WAFL's best remaining talent just weeks before WC joined the comp. Don't tell me that WC had a state-side, we were left with the scraps. Most of the state-side were playing for Victorian clubs and there were a lot more than 17 of them - that was just one recruiting raid. * WC had 160 days to find a coach, staff, grounds and create a team and club out of thin air and be ready to play in 160 days for the start of the 1987 season, that’s incredible when you think about it. * WC were only allowed to bring home one VFL player from each VFL club. Only 4 came home – Glendinning, Narkle, Turner and Annear. Only if they had WAFL experience, no pure bred Victorian players were allowed to be recruited by WC, it was one-way traffic for the benefit of Victorians. * Most of the ‘so-called WA state side’ that Victorians claim was the WC list were already playing for Victorian clubs long before WC could recruit any of them. WC’s original side was a strong WAFL side, a bunch of talented WA kids (unlike like GWS and GCS who chose from a national pool), 4 VFL players and a WAFL coach. * WAFL clubs hated WC and denied them access to their facilities. WC had to continuously switch training grounds using their cars as mobile change rooms. The grounds had bad lighting and one night Dean Turner ran into a star picket at full pace during a full contested drill and received 30 stitches in his thigh under a mosquito ridden flashlight in the car park according to John Worsfold, watch the video. * WC smashed the Bombers by 77 points in their first VFL pre-season game. They then beat Fitzroy by 23 points in the their 2nd pre-season game. * WC was trailing by 31 points at 3/4 time in their VFL debut against the Tigers but came from behind to beat Richmond. WC was born and it took determination, guts, money and incredible execution just to get a team on the park that day, never mind win it from 5 goals down as 3/4 time. Over 30,000 fans attended that first game and WC was on its way. * WC finished 4th in just their 2nd season (1988) and Melbourne finished 5th. WC were forced to play Melbourne in an Elimination Final at Waverley going down by 2 points. WC had played the Dogs at the Western Oval the week before. Back to back travel after finishing higher that your opponent - that became a sad and unfair tactic used by the VFL to cull WC's success and it worked. WC would have won at home and who knows what would have happened next? * WC played it’s first GF in just its 5th season (1991) finishing on top of the ladder after smashing just about every team in the comp. WC was forced to play a home prelim and GF at Waverley. WC had to travel to Victoria 4 times in 5 weeks (don't talk to me about the Hawks piddly twice in 3 weeks schedule and that's not even factoring in the advance in sports science, rehab, travel effects etc that we know today). Yes, you won that flag but look at the hoops we had to jump through while you were protected by your good friends at VFL House every step of the way. * WC won it’s first flag in it’s 6th year (1992). GCS and GWS can’t do what WC did and they both had it had so much easier. We finished 4th in our 2nd season and it clearly wasn't a state-side now was it. * I could talk about being denied access to train on Victorian grounds before games, or the cold showers in the change-rooms because they cut the hot water off in the middle of winter, or turning the sprinklers on at grounds to make it muddy for WC but you've got the drift now I'm sure. That adversity made us what we are today and that's why we aren't scared of you. We've been up against it from the start and we're used to it but I'd love to know how many flags we would have won if we had the comparatively easy armchair ride that Hawthorn have enjoyed. Gloat about your flags, we know that some of them were won on the back of hog-tying your opponents and rigging things in favour of Victorian clubs, much like a bank robber. I would have preferred it if a new AFL comp had been formed with the VFL clubs stumping up the cash or merging and the power base de-centralised as we would have a much healthier competition today but that's another story. The video tells us that the model was faulty from the start and all we’ve done is put band-aids on it ever since.
Don Freo
Guest
We are just more compelling than all other sides. It doesn't happen to other sides. See, even you, with a GF this week still have your heart and mind awash with purple.
jax
Guest
People do all manner of strange things. Everyone knows that Freo fans are active with their comments. Write a big Freo headline and wait for the clicks. Freo fans love talking their chances up and some others love talking them down. It's a recipe for success.
jax
Guest
You've got me all excited now Eddy. May your good form continue. The three consecutive performances stat is interesting.
jax
Guest
The Hawks do know how to rise I'll give you that. Whichever teams wins will have earned it. Let's hope that we have a classic and WC wins.
EddyJ
Guest
My secret formula suggests that it will be a very close game – I have predicted all winners of the Grand Final since 1994, except for two (predicted Geelong in 1995 and Sydney in 2014, both were massacred by Carlton and Hawthorn, respectively – oh, and also missed the 2010 drawn Grand Final, although I did predict Collingwood to win, which they eventually did the week after), but it should be West Coast by a thin margin. If Hawthorn win, it will be a totally amazing victory, even greater than their 2014 win over Sydney. Two trips to Perth, three tough finals matches in three weeks, and a predicted hot day on Grand Final day (28°C). Teams that suffer a defeat in the Qualifying Final rarely make it to the Grand Final, with only Brisbane (2003), Sydney (2005) and West Coast (2006) managing to achieve this. All three won their Grand Finals, but only suffered narrow defeats in the Qualifying Finals (15 points, 4 points and 1 point, respectively). Hawthorn were flogged in their Qualifying Final – losing by 32 points, after a 50 point deficit at three-quarter time. Hawthorn were brilliant in the Semi and Preliminary Finals, but don't forget they've been inconsistent this year, and haven't strung together three outstanding performances in a row this season. Will West Coast just be satisfied to reach the Grand Final? No, I don't think so – West Coast to win in a close match, and will also create many more scoring shots than Hawthorn (by this, I mean that they will miss a lot of shots on goal, but still kick a score that will narrowly win the game).
Nifty
Roar Rookie
West coast will be up against it they've played at the MCG only once this year so you'd think with the local crowd and home ground advantage Hawks should be favourites , but West Coast have beaten Hawks and Freo exposed them a couple of weeks ago but couldn't finish off ,so I think the Hawks are very beatable West Coast need a good start and need to attack the ball like they did against them a few weeks ago , hoping it's a tight hard game with two attacking sides ,looking forward to it .Go Eagles
Don Freo
Guest
That's because everyone saw the game and knows what happened. The GF is between the 2nd best and 4th best sides.
Don Freo
Guest
WC by 35 to 45 points. Dom Sheed wins the Norm Smith...although it would be great to see NicNat do it for his mum. Mitchell, Hodge and Gibson all reported by Dalgleish but Stevic burns the paperwork. Clarkson punches Simpson at after game hand shake to pre-empt any possibility of condescension.
AB
Guest
Don, as much as it pains me to agree with you on anything, it is a sad indictment of The Roar that the discussion seems to be obsessed - in Grand Final week - with a team that won't even be there. It's verging on weird.
Don Freo
Guest
Fremantle have become the most interesting team in the AFL (141 comments) Don’t write Fremantle off yet (132 comments) 2015 AFL grand final preview (28 comments) Hawks unconcerned about grand final weather forecast (3 comments) It seems that Freo is all anyone wants to talk about. I'll bet Matt Stevic is kicking himself for backing the wrong horse now.
Doctor Rotcod
Guest
You are totally wrong about the state side comment. Jax has answered this well elsewhere. Remember that Hawthorn sued the Eagles for trying to recruit Buckenara and Paul Harding. Remember that it was still the VFL until 1990. Those premierships don't count in the AFL era,except in bragging rights among the Victorian sides. Remember that West Coast couldn't have the same size squad as every other side until 1990.They started with 35 as opposed to 52
Brian
Guest
You conveniently forget you actually entered with a state side in 1987. We've actually won 6 since then. Take out your state side you've won once against our more recent 3. As for my watching i dont have pre 88 to watch
AB
Guest
I think (and hope) the Hawks will win. More than any team in the modern era, they know how to lift for the big games. But West Coast have been the most consistent team this year, gave Hawthorn their biggest belting in two seasons (albeit that was only 32 points) and are in it up to their necks. May the best team win. As long as it's Hawthorn!!!
Doctor Rotcod
Guest
AFL only e.g. from 1990 onwards is the only legitimate measure of Premierships That's Leigh Matthews' opinion any way. As of today the Hawks have won 4 flags with Brisbane ,Geelong and the Eagles on 3 flags each As of next week, the umpiring being fair and the old dancing crew from Hawthorn not going out with a swing and a knees-up, the Eagles will have four as well. Hawthorn won't have the wrong stops (as if), the hostile crowd(huh), playing poorly (what?),the ground dimensions(get real!) or anything else to cling to. The (mostly) Victorian media seem to be saying that the reason that West Coast won't win is because they're not Hawthorn, that is 'battle-hardened',supremely skilled, know how to win etc.etc, Just remember that 2008 suggests otherwise The Eagles make fewer mistakes than the Hawks,give up fewer free kicks,handle travel and the heat just fine. We'll soon see how well the Hawks' heat chamber works. Hawthorn are not invincible The last two years are not a guide.An inaccurate Fremantle and an inadequate Sydney are not touchstones for this grand final Here's to the two best sides of 2015 making Australian Rules football great
Frank R
Roar Rookie
Problem is that there is only 1 Premiership side and that's the one that wins the GF. All other sides / teams that represented the club that year are not the Premiership Team.
Doctor Rotcod
Guest
We'll grant the Hawks a goal handicap seeing that the Hawks average winning margin is a tad over 10 goals and the Eagles AWM is a tad over 9 .But... considering that the Eagles' average winning margin over the Hawks this year is 32 points, I would say that the Eagles have the edge.About 4 goals sounds right. Just as long as Stevic doesn't give too many 7 metre kicks as legit all should be well
jax
Guest
I like it as well but we will meet a better Hawthorn this time around and it's on their home deck. I hope that both teams are on and we get a classic with WC winning. That would be a dream. It's not going to be as easy as it was last time I'm quite sure of it but we can win it.
jax
Guest
I hear you Anon and WC will go for it I am sure. If we miss out its not the end of e world. Port and Crows didn't make the grannie and there is a difference. Win, lose or draw the guys will draw enormous confidence from beating every team in the comp at least once and making the GF. You're right though, there is no guarantee that we'll get their again. It I do think we'll be hanging around for a while. Make hay while the sun shines as they say.