Don't write off the Cats in 2016

By Dale Hughes / Roar Rookie

It seems, for many, Geelong’s reign as a force is over, consigned to history as probably the second best team of the past ten years.

As Patrick Dangerfield edges closer and closer to a home at Kardinia Park, football fans on social media keep issuing barbs that he will not see a premiership at Geelong for at least five years.

One can’t help but think these predictions are premature, born out of hope that the Cats will experience a lengthy spell in the lower part of the ladder.

It’s interesting analysis, given that Geelong won 11 games this season despite fielding a list in transition. Rather than falling further down the ladder, it’s conceivable that Geelong could be ready to begin climbing once again.

Consider the midfield next year, presuming of course that Dangerfield arrives at the Cattery, and their grades.

Joel Selwood (A); Dangerfield (A); Steven Motlop (B+); Mitch Duncan (B+); Josh Caddy (B) and Cameron Guthrie (B).

Mark Blicavs and Rhys Stanley will share the ruck duties, and both players have proven that they can perform. Factor in also the fact that Jimmy Bartel can make cameos in the midfield, and it’s apparent that the Cats will be far from easybeats during 2016.

What about the forward line?

Tom Hawkins (B+); Mitch Clark (B); Nathan Vardy (B+); Daniel Menzel (B); Bartel (B+) and Josh Walker (C).

It is likely that Walker might go in a trade, possibly to Carlton in exchange for Henderson. The Cats will have a team of power forwards next year, and if Vardy and Clarke can remain on the park they will present headaches for opposition defenders.

It’s true that Hawkins experienced a difficult and often frustrating season in 2015, but too often he was forced to shoulder the load due to injuries. He is an A-grade forward on his day, and with more support around him he could easily notch up 70+ goals. If Daniel Menzel has a strong pre-season, then that B rating will fast be moving north.

Defenders? (Let’s assume Henderson comes across).

Corey Enright (A); Harry Taylor (A); Tom Lonergan (A); Andrew Mackie (B); Lachie Henderson (B+); Jake Kolodjashnij (C+) and Jed Bews (C+)

Kolodjashnij and Bews showed a bit in 2015, but obviously they’re not there yet. Enright is still playing brilliant floating football on the half-back line, while the addition of Henderson will provide valuable support for proven campaigners Taylor, Lonergan and Mackie.

It might be wishful thinking for Cats fans, but a quick look at the likely 2016 list reveals that there is still the right mix of top players and those with up-and-coming potential. It would be foolish to talk it up as a premiership list, but it is fair to argue that finals in 2016 is a likely possibility, with further success down the track.

The Geelong Football Club have made fools of naysayers in the past. It could just be that they will do so once again.

The Crowd Says:

2015-10-06T03:16:00+00:00

Charles Joseph

Guest


Curious that the OP left out Thurlow from the list of defenders. He was one of the big improvers of 2015. Well, "one of"... I supposed there weren't a heap of others. I note that Bews was still included, and hope that is reflected in the club's thinking. He went off the - or didn't quite come to the evidently impending - boil about mid-season. I'm not sure whether he had some confusion, or if it's the management, about the nature of his role - pure stopper, run-off inflicter of damage, a la Enright, or mainly the former and opportunistically the latter. That last, I suppose, is what the brains trust is hoping for, but it's not an easy playing style to perfect and make automatic. I hope they give him at least another year to work on it. I suspect the retention of CE is partly with a view to allowing space for that. On the question of A/B/C graders, my feeling is that currently what the whole team projects does not add up to the sum of its apparent parts... grades. I further suggest that that is partly due to the instability generated by the radical change which has occurred in "list management," that hideous term. There was Chainsaw Massacre 1, at end 2013 - the slaughter of the 32yo innocents; last year, Chainsaw Massacre 2 - " " " " 22yo "; now, so far, we have had another suicidal burst of CM1; "so far"... I note that the OP listed Henderson as a potential defender. I didn't know. I thought, probably forward. Possibly the thought is that Henderson could replace Lonergan in a year or so, or Mackie, if Blicavs has already been measured for the Lonergan shoes. Perhaps there's still hope of Josh Walker being retained. He made some modest improvement this year, despite having to function as Gapfilla. He will be playing at 23 next year. Even if he can't regularly force his way in among Vardy, Clarke and co,, and provided he has a patient and dedicated attitude, there is still the pssibility of six to eight years of high level service from JW. Well, I am old and grumpy. It seems to me that Geelong achieved its great era without any of this manure. There was of course that fellow from Richmond, the 203 cm ruckman, Ottens; then of course, that recycled tall tiger, Brad; and of course the one concerning whom Bomber warned the press: "All of you, all of you..." But apart from those, the Cats did it by development, not trades. Development and a lengendary culture. The term "culture" is still trotted out, out of inertia, but it's been thrown out with, if not the bathwater, then the Schroder, the Mitch Browm, the Hamling, the heaps of others. Talking of those last two: I thought it obvious towards the end of last year that, over the next 3 or 4, Lonergan, Rivers, Mackie and Taylor would become Blicavs, Brown, Hamling and Kolodjashniy. So, turf out Mitch Brown just as he's finally getting over his chronic injuries and give Footscray the gift of Hamling. Well, I suppose, a kind gesture to the Bullies, can't knock that. So then the Cats have to trade to fill the self-induced gap, and trade away the Walker segment of their culture and history. I suppose there might have occurred something like this back in the old rebuild - 2000 - 2003, but I was travelling then, a bit out of the loop. I don't know, still don't like it.

2015-10-02T05:05:55+00:00

Edgar Slosh

Roar Guru


Don't want to get everyone excited just yet

2015-10-01T20:47:41+00:00

Edgar Slosh

Roar Guru


Geelong have absolutely no depth left. They will struggle in the next 5 years, perhaps longer

2015-10-01T17:19:35+00:00

Tricky

Guest


You could add the Pies and make it 4 Anonymous

2015-10-01T14:21:34+00:00

Michael

Guest


Surely this isn't serious... Some of the grades that you have assigned to players are genuinely comical. Selwood a B??? Not only is he one of the very best in the AFL from the last five years, but he would be welcomed as the captain of just about every team in the AFL. However, after a below par season at least this criticism can be seen as somewhat justified. Duncan, on the other hand, who you have deemed not good enough to make the side, was out with a broken foot for most of the season and comments regarding him struggling to make the side are completely misguided. Duncan, who managed 2 incredible performances in rounds 5 and 6 before suffering from a broken foot has shown that he is very much a B+ player. Similarly, Guthrie and Caddy, the first of which is more than capable of successfully tagging the best players in the comp and the latter who has shown he has average 90 fantasy over the course of the season both are quite clearly not D grade players. Motlop's achievements this year have been marred by Geelong's average season, but in reality he is quite close to being deemed A grade and is arguably a player of Robbie Grays caliber. While your rating of Enright is quite right, Lonergan and Taylor have both showed that they are very much A grade defenders. More importantly, after an injury-plagued season in which a Geelong side undergoing its rebuilding phase still managed to be in finals contention, the idea that Geelong won't be in contention for the next 5 years is beyond me.With Blicavs, Gregson, Lang, Cockatoo, Caddy, Guthre, Motlop, Duncan, Vardy, Menzel, Stanley, Kolodjashnij and Thurlow yet to reach their prime it would be very hard to rule them out of finals contention. Of course, you may be correct and Geelong's lack of top draft picks may hinder them, but might I remind you that Geelong have only had 5 top 10 draft picks since 2000 (one of whom is still only 18 years old and still managed 3 premiershi[ps. While they are quite clearly lacking in this aspect and may struggle to recover from the losses of Johnson, Kelly and Stokes, it seems like "Geelong won't be playing finals in the next five years" seems to be a rather rash and misguided statement,

2015-10-01T06:11:55+00:00

Edgar Slosh

Roar Guru


He is an A in my book, but by himself this year he was a B. He doesnt have the help around him which is why I dropped him a ranking

2015-10-01T05:53:15+00:00

Anonymous

Roar Pro


The blinded optimism displayed in this article is quite startling, not the least the rating of the Geelong defenders which is abominable. I pretty much agree with all your ratings Edgar. However, I think your way of the mark with Selwood. In my view he’s still one of the absolute elites in the comp. I sure as hell would want him on my team.

2015-10-01T05:41:40+00:00

Anonymous

Roar Pro


I agree DB. If Hawks win they will inevitably be considered the best (you can’t deny three premierships in a row), but until that happens, I would still consider Geelong’s dominance on the competition much greater than Hawthorn’s.

2015-10-01T05:39:06+00:00

Anonymous

Roar Pro


There are only three teams you can put a line through for next season. Carlton, Essendon and Geelong. Once the powerhouses of the competition, now just peddling in mediocracy. Their fall may have taken longer than many thought, but believe me, it has begun. There’s no way they will be better than any of the teams that finished above them on the ladder next season and will most likely be overtaken by GWS, St Kilda and if they get their act together the Suns. There’s no doubting they were a formidable side (in my opinion their dominance was even greater then what we are seeing from Hawthorn) but the end has well and truly come.

2015-10-01T05:28:14+00:00

DB

Guest


Selwood a B? he is one of the top 5 players of the last 5 years. he is an A+

2015-10-01T05:24:24+00:00

DB

Guest


Why Geelong only the 2nd best side of the last 10 years? Hawthorn haven't won the GF yet.

2015-10-01T02:48:08+00:00

Edgar Slosh

Roar Guru


Lets have a real look at what Geelong look like. Next year they will finish around 10th-12th even with Dangerfield in the side. Tom Hawkins(B+); Mitch Clark (B); Nathan Vardy (B+); Daniel Menzel (B); Bartel (B+) and Josh Walker (C). Hawkins is a B-, Clark is an F. Vardy and Menzel have been injured for 3 years. 1 game doesnt make them a B. How about we try a C or D, Bartel is a C and Walker is a D Joel Selwood (A); Dangerfield (A); Steven Motlop (B+); Mitch Duncan (B+); Josh Caddy (B) and Cameron Guthrie (B). Selwood alone is a B, Dangerfield is an A because of the environment he is in now, Motlop is a C at best, Duncan can't get a game so how you have him at a B+ is anyones guess. According to his own coach he is more like a D. Caddy and Guthrie are also a D Corey Enright (A); Harry Taylor (A); Tom Lonergan (A); Andrew Mackie (B); Lachie Henderson (B+); Jake Kolodjashnij (C+) and Jed Bews (C+) Enright was an A about 3 years ago. He's more like a C- now, Taylor is a B- and Lonergan is a C. Henderson is a C and the last 2 thankfully you have right. Even your rucks look shaky. As for the depth, there is none. You have turned over 16 players in the last 2 years. Geelong won't be playing finals in the next 5 years. Enjoy Dangerfield, I can guarentee he won't be nearly as effective in a team near the bottom of the ladder Geelong are going to have to give up draft picks and a player for both Henderson and Dangerfield. You can say goodbye to your first round draft picks for the next 2 years and the second round draft pick for this year. That gives you a 3rd round pick around 50 which will bring nothing much to the club at that stage. Perhaps a project player.

2015-09-30T23:14:57+00:00

Wilson

Roar Guru


was almost going to say you are Crazy with that last line there WIG "there’s already too many other teams ahead of them with more upside and others like GC, St.Kilda & Melbourne" but I think you may well be right. Saint if the do get Carlisle I think they will push for the 8 next year. Melbourne i think will improve again. Cat I think need to work on the Defence line. as WIG say it is Dads army.

2015-09-30T22:45:39+00:00

WhereIsGene

Guest


They're gone mate. Making up the numbers. Their defense used to be their backbone and now its Dads Army back there. Their kids are mediocre and they still rely on their old farts to get them over the line most weeks. Assuming they get Dangerfield they'll be lucky to slip into 8th spot next year, there's already too many other teams ahead of them with more upside and others like GC, St.Kilda & Melbourne will go past the Cats next year.

2015-09-30T20:43:23+00:00

Edgar Slosh

Roar Guru


Yes, the author must be a geelong supporter to think his team, who have to give up the chance to recruit any talent for 2 years. is better than what it actually is.

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