AFL off-season preview: Free agents

In the space of just three years, free agency has had a huge impact on player movement. We’ve seen big names like Brendon Goddard, Eddie Betts, Nick Dal Santo and of course Lance Franklin move clubs. This year will add to that list.

Yesterday, in my AFL off-season preview, I looked at the new AFL rules surrounding trading and the father-son and academy bidding system. Today, my attention turns to those players eligible to move clubs as free agents in 2015.

First, a quick refresher course on free agency. There are three types of free agents – restricted free agents, unrestricted free agents, and delisted free agents.

Restricted free agents are players who have been at their current club for at least eight years, are out of contract, and are inside the top 25 per cent highest-paid players at their club.

Unrestricted free agents are players who have either been at their current club for at least 10 years and are out of contract, or have been at their club for at least eight years and are out of contract but are not inside the top 25 per cent highest-paid players.

Delisted free agents are players who have been delisted by their club.

All free agents have the right to field offers from rival clubs, and if they wish to move to an opposition club that has made them an offer, can accept and begin the process of moving.

Unrestricted or delisted free agents do not have to take any further steps, they’re able to move directly to the club of their choice without their current club having any say.

Restricted free agents are a bit more complicated – once they accept an offer, their current club has a three-day period in which they can choose to match the terms of their rival contract.

If they do this, the player can then choose to either stay with their current club, seek a trade, or quit the club and go into the draft.

So far in the history of AFL free agency, no club has chosen to match the offer on a restricted free agent, with the prevailing belief being that if a player doesn’t want to be at the club, it’s better to just let them go.

That might change this year – more on that later.

Clubs who sign free agents get them, as the name suggests, for ‘free’. Aside from taking up a spot on their list and some room in their salary cap, they are not required to give up other players or draft picks in order to secure them, as they would have to in a trade.

Clubs who lose free agents are usually compensated with an additional draft pick in line with the length and value of the contract signed by the departing player, and the player’s age.

These compensation picks tend to be immediately after the club’s pick in a given round – the first round for valuable players, second and third rounds for less valuable players, depending on the AFL’s estimation.

This has led to discrepancies in the past, such as Melbourne being compensated with pick three for James Frawley, but Hawthorn only receiving pick 19 for Lance Franklin.

It’s worth noting that if a club loses a free agent to a rival club, but also signs one from another club in the same period, they don’t receive any compensation.

Carlton, for example, did not receive any compensation for losing Eddie Betts at the end of 2013, because they signed Dale Thomas from Collingwood that year, effectively cancelling out the need for compensation.

Anyway, enough of all that – let’s get to the meat of it. Who are the free agents this year? Are they staying or going, and if they’re going, where to?

The AFL’s worst-kept secret this year has been that Adelaide Crows star Patrick Dangerfield is on the move to Geelong, due to his desire to be closer to his family.

Adelaide have already confirmed that Dangerfield is seeking to exercise his right as a restricted free agent, and Dangerfield’s manager has confirmed that Geelong is the club he wants to go to.

However, this has the potential to be the first free agency move in history to be blocked. It’s believed Geelong will offer Dangerfield a deal worth about $800,000 per year over six years, which Adelaide can probably afford to match.

Of course, they’re not going to match the offer in the hopes of keeping Dangerfield, but instead to get better value for his departure than they will through free agency compensation.

The Crows’ first-round pick is 13, meaning they would most likely receive pick 14 in compensation, a pittance for a player of Dangerfield’s quality. By matching the offer they can force Geelong to make a trade for Dangerfield instead, which would likely involve the Cats’ pick 9 as a starting point, with haggling over further compensation.

Meanwhile, it’s rumoured that Collingwood and Melbourne are both preparing super-offers in excess of $1 million per year that Adelaide would be unable to match, in the event that negotiations with Geelong stall and Dangerfield considers other clubs.

My tip? Dangerfield will get to Geelong, but expect a few bumps along the road.

There are two other players in the league classified as restricted free agents.

Brisbane’s Matthew Leuenberger is a dead-set certainty to move clubs this year, as it has become apparent that he cannot thrive in the same team as the Lions’ preferred ruckman Stefan Martin.

Presumably any club interested in a ruckman would be keen on him, which means Sydney, Essendon, Geelong, Western Bulldogs and perhaps some others are all possible new homes for him.

However, he is said to have narrowed his decision down to either Sydney or Essendon, with a final call to be made soon.

Brisbane were initially hopeful of getting a first-round pick in compensation, as Melbourne did for James Frawley last year, but a second-round pick seems more likely.

West Coast’s Scott Selwood is also a restricted free agent, and his future is very much up in the air. There have been conflicting reports all season – some say he will join his brother Joel at Geelong, others that he wants to stay at West Coast.

It’s hard to say how this one will pan out. My thinking – and it is just my thinking – is that he wants to stay at West Coast, but isn’t guaranteed a best-22 spot or a lucrative contract there.

He will probably move clubs for greater playing security, and might even get a little push out the door from West Coast, who may prefer a potentially first-round compensation pick for him.

Geelong seems the likely destination if he does move – and wouldn’t he and Dangerfield be a big boost to their midfield – but don’t discount the possibility of another club throwing their hat in the ring.

In terms of unrestricted free agents, Hawthorn’s Matt Suckling is probably the most intriguing. Brisbane were rumoured to be pursuing him but have reportedly backed off, not wanting to damage any compensation they might receive for the departure of Leuenberger.

Suckling has struggled to maintain his spot in Hawthorn’s best 22 this season, and despite winning a second premiership with club on Saturday, may still look to move to a side where he would have better job security.

Where that might be isn’t yet clear, and the most likely outcome appears to be him re-signing with the Hawks.

Essendon’s Brent Stanton and Courtenay Dempsey are both unrestricted free agents, and are both reportedly weighing up their options after only being offered short-term deals by the Bombers.

Sydney have shown interest in recruiting Dempsey, while a suitor for Stanton is yet to emerge.

Brodie Martin, Jed Adcock, Steve Johnson, James Kelly, Mathew Stokes, Mark Jamar, Scott McMahon and Jarrad Grant have all been informed they are no longer required, and most intend to look for a new club.

Richmond have reportedly shown interest in Johnson, and there are rumours connecting Stokes to Carlton. Adcock has been vocal about wanting to play on, and I expect he will find a new club, though it isn’t yet clear which.

Also keep an eye on the likes of Tayte Pears, Paul Duffield, Dawson Simpson, Brendan Whitecross and Patrick McGinnity, who have not been cut or kept by their current clubs, but would all likely consider rival offers.

The remaining free agents – Dennis Armfield, Ryan Crowley, Matthew Pavlich and Michael Firrito – will likely either re-sign with their current clubs, or retire.

Full list of current free agents

Restricted free agents
Patrick Dangerfield (Adelaide), Matthew Leuenberger (Brisbane), Scott Selwood (West Coast).

Unrestricted free agents
Brodie Martin (Adelaide), Jed Adcock (Brisbane), Dennis Armfield (Carlton), Courtenay Dempsey, Tayte Pears, Brent Stanton (Essendon), Ryan Crowley, Paul Duffield, Matthew Pavlich (Fremantle), Steve Johnson, James Kelly, Dawson Simpson, Matthew Stokes (Geelong Cats), Matthew Suckling, Brendan Whitecross (Hawthorn), Mark Jamar (Melbourne), Michael Firrito, Scott McMahon (North Melbourne), Patrick McGinnity (West Coast), Jarrad Grant (Western Bulldogs).

Tomorrow: my focus turns to the players on the trade table in 2015, where they are going, and what kind of trades will get them there.