Caulfield Guineas day is upon us, the first of the five consecutive Saturdays of the biggest racing Melbourne, and Australia, has to offer.
The Caulfield Guineas for the boys, and Thousand Guineas for the girls, are only two of the four Group 1s on the day, and we’ll look at them tomorrow.
The other two are the Caulfield Stakes for the middle distance weight-for-age gallopers, and the Toorak Handicap for the milers.
The Caulfield Stakes has attracted the definition of a small but select field. Eight horses engaged, with seven of them rated between 112-116.
Entirely Platinum is the only horse falling below that rating spread, at a lowly 107, and even he has three Group 1 WFA placings to his credit. He’ll be the leader in this race, backing up from the Epsom, and it isn’t beyond his capability to steal the race as the despised outsider if he gets to run as he likes up front.
Kermadec is the Cox Plate favourite, and also has that honour in the Caulfield Stakes. He’s now a dual Group 1 winner, backing up his Doncaster win in the autumn with his first WFA victory in the George Main last start. He had been knocking on the door, and was always going to be the horse to beat in that race, but now has to bring his class to Caulfield for the first time.
Kermadec beat Royal Descent into second in the George Main, and we saw her measure right up down south in the Turnbull last Sunday. The Sydney form looks to hold the aces over the Vics at this stage, and he’s rightfully the one to beat.
Pornichet only just fell short of denying Kermadec in the George Main, and will appreciate the step up to 2000 metres, a distance range he’s unbeaten at in Australia, from three starts (including the 2150m Toowoomba Cup).
Our man Brisburgh Phil keeps telling me how much further he’ll improve on a good track, and he’ll certainly see that on Saturday. He’s primed and ready to make his mark, but I just wonder if the Mackinnon might be more his race, just that half a grade below the absolute best.
Fawkner is the horse the Sydneysiders will have the toughest time holding out. He’s finished in the quinella at his last six Group 1s when racing between the distances of 1600 to 2400 metres, winning three of them.
He’s a tough, consistent, classy animal, who always puts himself in the right spot. He’s generally a more devastating horse when off a freshen, rather than running every two weeks, and his Underwood Stakes second was fractionally disappointing, but he really started savaging the line once he overcame a fairly lengthy flat spot.
Mongolian Khan has been beaten less than two lengths in his two runs so far this campaign, in the Makybe Diva and Underwood. The Caulfield Cup is his grand final, and this should have him cherry ripe for it, where he’ll be a legitimate winning chance. He might just lack the tactical speed and sprint to win this though.
Contributer has been a disappointment down in Melbourne so far, after blazing a trail through the Sydney WFA races in the autumn. We keep hearing that he’ll take improvement, but he needs to find a few lengths off his Underwood run, and then some.
The globe-trotting Criterion is the interesting runner, first-up from a seven-week let-up after a plain England campaign.
His three Group 1 victories have all been on genuine rain affected ground, and his good track wins were all as a two-year-old. He is probably the WFA horse in the country on the wet, but just one of several very good ones we have on the dry.
Happy Trails is backing up from the Turnbull Stakes after never really seeing daylight in the straight there. He has a habit of finding trouble in his races, but then coming out the next start and surprising at longer odds.
He’s going as well as he ever has, and is yet another legitimate chance, in a race full of them.
Entirely Platinum should lead them up, from Pornichet, with Fawkner also sitting handy, probably being tracked by Kermadec. It’s going to be a great race.
Selections
1. Kermadec
2. Fawkner
3. Pornichet
4. Happy Trails
The Toorak looks to be a race of few chances, with the key players coming almost exclusively from the Rupert Clarke, which is traditional pathway.
Stratum Star won that race in gutsy fashion after a lovely ride from a wide barrier by Craig Williams. He’s the perfect blend of class, honesty and stoutness for handicap racing as a four-year-old, and it won’t surprise to see him mature into a genuine WFA horse eventually.
He can certainly do the Rupert Clarke and Toorak double, last achieved by his stablemate Trust In A Gust last year. He’ll sit a cosy fifth or sixth from Barrier 2, and won’t spend a penny with the extra weight he now has to carry.
Disposition will be the hardest horse to beat, meeting Stratum Star 1.5 kilograms better for the narrow defeat last start. He’s a good horse, and will also get a nice run in transit sitting midfield from gate seven.
Lucky Hussler, the toppie, is still looking for a way out in the Rupert Clarke, and went to the line basically untested, but only finishing a length and a half from the above quinella. He meets them both better at the weights for it, and is a major player also drawn to get a beautiful run.
Strawberry Boy is something of a distance specialist in weaker races than this, albeit often carrying weight in doing so. He’ll keep the rest honest, but might just find a few too good for him again, especially as he’s likely to have some company up front.
Hi World wasn’t quite up to WFA racing, and is coming in off a Memsie, Makybe Diva, Underwood formline, where he was beaten in all three races by a combined six-and-a-half lengths. That reads very, very well for a horse dropping back to 54.5 kilograms in a handicap, especially one paying around the $15 mark.
He’s the one to beat of the on-pace brigade, and his chances may be tempo related.
Noble Protector was flying against the mares in the autumn, but was as plain as could be first up in the Let’s Elope. She’s had a month between since that run, with a trial in between, and could be a chance if she recaptures the form from last campaign, but I’d need to see it before backing her at single-figures odds against the boys in this class.
A horse like Jacquinot Bay is probably the best genuine bolter in the race. Akavoroun and Abidewithme also have some claims at healthy, double-figure odds.
The tempo should be strong, with a few genuine speed horses engaged, and those racing just off it will get first crack, but the backmarkers will likely have the last look at them, and it will be just whether they have the class to get there to beat them all.
Selections
1. Disposition
2. Stratum Star
3. Lucky Hussler
4. Hi World (the one to beat if the race is run at a moderate tempo)
johny bulldog
Guest
Go the hussler! Orrr yeah!
Cameron Rose
Expert
Definitely some word about him at odds Doc. That sort of race. If it's not one of the top few chances, then eight or nine can win it I reckon.
Cameron Rose
Expert
I'm wary of him, but gee that was a weak race he was in last start. Can certainly win, but my money won't be on him!
johny bulldog
Guest
Stick with kermadec cam!,glad ur still up doing form'any love for bondeiger?
Cameron Rose
Expert
I genuinely think every horse has a winning chance. I've seen worse horses than Entirely Platinum stroll away with this kind of race while the others are all watching each other.
BrisburghPhil
Roar Guru
Gee thanks for that mention Cam, pressures on, but I'm very happy to take the $6 about him against Kermadec who is yet to go to 2000m and yet to beat Pornichet on a dry track. Of course the race doesn't end there!
The Doctor
Guest
No love for Hopfgarten at big odds? I thought he was a real black booker out of the Rupert Clarke. A clear run and he's right on the heels of the top 3 in that race. Up to his best distance here and should sit much closer off the inside gate. Trackwork reports said he was the star worker on Tuesday at Flemington.
andrew
Guest
2 – I love it is worth a look for exacta punters or those taking a skinny tri. She flies fresh, luckless in her only fresh loss, so stable have to ‘use’ the fresh to adv. She was nomed for race 10, but they didn’t accept, a sign she is going well perhaps. Already group 1 placed and form via griante suggest to me she atleast capable of running 2nd ahead of shiraz who has been up a long time and alpha miss. 3 – harlem river is a good filly resuming who hasn’t run bad in career date. Expensive yearling and stable would be keen to get a group win next to her name and they have picked a really good race to resume in. seems a target race too, given she has had the two trails. When heavily trialled gais horses typically race well fresh, her latter trial being against open grade horses. Im pretty keen. 4 – lots of pots and lays on many of the horses here, but not the bowler for mine who has put in two solid 1200m runs and now gets to 1400m in a very winnable race from ideal draw on preferred dry ground. Goes super well for Zahra, form around him this distance range in mode of silverball, atlantis dream, kenjorwood, jacquinot bay, is a few lengths above these. Maps for an ideal run just off the speed doing no work up the hill. Won 5 races this year, all in town. Last 3 1400m runs are win over kenjorwood, 3rd in magic millions cup (strawberry boy was 2nd) and win at flem over paddys gem (giving it 4.5kgs). im struggling to find a negative. As for rivals. A quick comment. Rugged cross = winning form on wet ground. Good value concussion plates first time = pass. Richies vibe, streets away, eximius, pago rock = older unreliable horses very poor winning strikes rates in last few years. Mecir could improve, but bowler beat it last time easy enough. Tristrams sun has a chance and goes in early quad down in weights off good 1st up run. Amavtio goes in early quad on class factor alone. I think the bowler could be heavily backed and the $4 was good enough for me. 5 – amralah deserves to be fave and quite clearly. Happy to dismiss the form from the messy black tomahawk race here 2 weeks back. None of them would have been remotely competitive in the turnball like amralah was. Is a 2400m uk winner of lord van percy (who ran very well in much stronger edition of this race in 2014) so no worries with the trip. There is a break in the weight scale here, but I think its justified and deserved. Bohemian lilly very well found for mine, not much depth to race it ran in last start that finished behind it. Get the feeling sertorious and prince of penzance might just be one run away from striking top form. Bondegier showed improvement last time, but it was an awfully weak race at level weights and did get beat by gloryland who is a rating 66 horse, but concede he could keep building. Amralah a clear top pick for mine. 6 – no need to comment, my views on fawkener well documented and known. Id say it’s a good sign that in his ‘flat’ run he got beat a nose in a G1. Last 2 years hasn’t run a bad race if you take out 3200m hcp run and 1200m WFA runs (which you are entitled to when doing form a for a 2000m WFA race). In fact, his other form is caul cup win, craiglee win, yalumba win and beaten a nose/head in craiglee (to dissident), cox plate (Adelaide) and mourinho (last start). Shocked if he doesn’t run top 3. Accept this is a stronger edition of race than he won last year. I will be backing him the win, but you will get $1.90 the place on the NSW tote I reckon and this is great booster for multis 7 – im with lucky hussler who ran super to hucklebuck in firm track this trip in emirates last year in fast run race and this has been a good race for topweights in recent times and he meets several better at weights from last run when obv had no luck and had something to give, but confidence levels dropping from this point onwards. This is a big field, but I don’t think its wide leg for quad players. The obvious should prevail with Rupert clark formline to rightly be trusted. Just the obvious 3 for me here, might even play a quinella boxing disposition, stratum star and lucky hussler (I understand hi world runs cran sun, but he would have been 4th and in the quad if he lines up here) 8 – no firm view. Really struggling here. Its all about the price for press statement. Im cant load up against him, but I don’t have the ticker to make a leap of faith into him at $2.50 or so. 9 – only slightly more refined here, with the prelude throwing up more questions than answers. Pasadena girl just on top as she has had prep where they can build slowly into this race and bring her on slowly to peak on the day and goes in 3rd up and ran as well them last time and gets weight swing and is G1 winner at trip with top jockey from good draw. Miss gunpoweder and jameka go in the quad and my next picks, both have geuien winning claims.. A bit against stay with me who is 1:2 head to head with Pasadena and was flat to end of race last time with Pasadena running past it and has weight swing, you can make excuses, but I have to try and narrow it down somewhere. 10- no firm view, but as always, I will be against politeness ADL 1 - Mullinger lane strikes a very weak race and has good recent winning form this prep, beaten last time, but was dropping back from 1600m to 1400m. now back to 1600m suits better – and this is weaker race too. 2 – lucky lucky competitive last time, running best last 600m in a race dominated up front by horses who are contesting the Toorak. And this is a very weak race. Poor 2nd up record on paper, but you go through the runs they are in stronger grade (syd sat grade) and the runs were all good (for this), claiming kid won for me evoy last sat and perhaps he might just be too good for them. Def prepared to risk temps volours and letmedowngently whom im happy to be against. 3 – I usually like the stokes horses but comphende is not one of his better one and unders. Jose wales beat a field of walkers and form from that race is terrible. Magnus knight is promising horse who was too good for NT racing and was a big run in SA debut last start in a race where there was a big gap to the 3rd horse, think he is very good value at $6. 5 – perpetual bliss gets an easy lead from inside draw on limit weight and showed good improvement 2nd up and can be expected to continue to improve and is good ew value in a race where the form is quite intertwined around into the mist (handy mc evoy 4yo mare) 7 – colonel custer is bred to stay (savabeel being son on zabeel and metropolitan the dam being group winner and he looks like he races that way, kept fresh for this, this is one stokes/tourner combo I am keen on. Interesting prep 5 weeks between runs and up to 1800m, but im trusting stokes knows what he is doing. 8 – best value of the day comes up here in master sommeilier at $21 for hayes. Hong kong import who was competitive over there and strikes a modest bunch here with some of the key chances drawn wide and/or with claiming kids on top. Good win first up in BM70 in vic, then floundedered in wet track, back to dry with big weight drop from good draw. More an $8 chance, not $21. Sun Mrs President ran well 1st up at MV, rises to 1400m here in a BM70 and is already a BM70 winner. Best: Harlem River, The Bowler, Fawkner, Amralah. Best Multi: Harlem River, The Bowler, Fawkner all to place.
Scuba
Guest
Dal Cielo the value in the guineas. Abidewithme drawn to get a better run this week, beating Set Square two back looks good form.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Some good analysis there Razzar. I'd be surprised if any of my top three didn't get their chance the way the race pans out. Stratum Star is so versatile, he can do it from anywhere, and he's the one getting out to great odds. I'll be having something on him. I doubt there's much between the Prelude colts, but you're right, Press Statement way too short for my money. I'll be backing the Kiwi personally.
Cameron Rose
Expert
In the top handful of chances for mine too, Johny. I don't really like backing top weights in handicaps, and I reckon Stratum Star is a better horse too, but good luck!
Razzar
Guest
The Toorak hcp with a big field looks a very difficult race. The speed will mostly come from out wide, that can cause problems with runners such as Disposition. He litterilly could be forced back a couple of extra pairs. Maybe 10th or twelfth, Lucky hussler and Stratom star could be dealt the same fate. As I see it, Luckey hussler is the weak link to run out the mile. Stratum may position the best of the three, and just out sprint Disposition. Luck in running obviously plays a part but Stratum looks to poissie best. I rate him a $4.50 chance. In the Guiness, the boys race, Last Bullet reads like a contender improving with racing, a clean get away, he can position himself for winding up as the mile should suit to a tee, Looks about 6/1 chance for mine. Press Statement is likely to be winding up behind somewhere, but he's no value. Dal Cielo is 3rd up and could have more upside. Good luck punters.
JOHNY BULLDOG
Roar Rookie
At work & just watched the replay of the Rupert Clarke a few times & Lucky Hussler was a great run-never got a crack but appears to be trucking behind them as you mentioned above Cam.Reckon I'll be getting on!
Cameron Rose
Expert
Thanks KV. I like your comment about the Moody sleepers, it will pay to be wary of his runners on the day. Disposition is the best "box ticker" in the race, he'll be awfully hard to beat. Interesting comment on Flamingo Star, he goes in my quaddie now!
kv joef
Roar Guru
top analysis cam. hope team-hawkes decide to make a race of it and put it to them with entirely platinum going solid. agree with your comments about pinochet ... wow! what a dress rehearsal for the cox. Moody could provide a few sleepers on sat. so your comments about hi world are on the mark. Been v.good but will be forced inbto the race from 13. Flamingo Star ran well in the Shannon and v. unWaller-like as he kept this international in blk-type company throughout his aust. campaigns. His Euro form is average even though he mixed it with Protectionist and Lucky Speed as a 3yr-old but Waller keeps giving him a shot. surely he must have shown someone something as Waller trains the best milers in the land to benchmark him. again a wide gate could negate his chances. not hard to see why you have settled on disposition should get a cushy throughout.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Thanks Johny, and it is a great time of year. Daylight savings is here, the weather has responded in kind, and the races are superb. Yeah, I must admit, I jumped on Preferment at the last minute myself, I couldn't get that awesome Hill Stakes run out of my mind, and a couple of Roar commenters were also keen. I'm glad I was swayed!
JOHNY BULLDOG
Roar Rookie
Great stuff Cam,with the footy now over gee its a great time of year with all these high class races coming up.I've got a bit of money in the kick thanks to Preferment,Winks & Magic Hurricane last week,can't wait to have a crack at them on Saturday-good luck & good punting mate.