The (far too early) 2016 AFL ladder

The dust has yet to settle on 2015 and there is a trade and draft period to come. But hey, why not take a look at what the ladder will look like in 2016.

The Hawks and Eagles proved that contenders do not need an elite attack or elite defence, but both. So who ticks both boxes and has the list profile to contend in an Olympic year?

Oh, and we take a look at the player with most at stake (either because they have under-delivered, should do more or are just expected to do more) and the one set to rise either through natural development or because they have that ‘something’.

First: West Coast
Saturday’s performance was an embarrassment. This young side must learn from the experience, with arguably only four players gaining a pass mark. More games at the MCG, the return of Eric McKenzie, the addition of Jack Redden and Lewis Jetta, power and skill in all areas and a hunger to right the wrongs of 2015 will see the Eagles go one better, defeating the Hawks in the process.

Either this will happen, or the scars will last and the Eagles will slide as the competition works a way around The Web.

Most at stake: Jack Darling.

Set to rise: Dom Sheed

Second: Hawthorn
How could you tip against Hawthorn, having run arguably the most difficult gauntlet of the modern era to take out their third straight flag? Well, now history has been made one would think that Luke Hodge, Sam Mitchell, Jordan Lewis and crew will start to regress due to both age and hunger.

The youth coming through is lacking, and the salary cap squeeze may start to take effect. If it doesn’t, and opposition coaches don’t recognise that Mitchell needs to be tagged, then we might be watching The Quad Squad.

Most at stake: Billy Hartung

Set to rise: Isaac Smith

Third: North Melbourne
Brad Scott has his fair share of critics, his obtrusive nature and short fuse meaning he deserves all the criticism he gets. What’s more, he might not even be the best coach in his family. But like him or not, consecutive preliminary finals is an amazing effort.

Their best players are their oldest, but natural improvement in the likes of Jack Ziebell and Ben Cunnington and the obligatory free-agent top-up gives the Roos a great chance to three-peat in the second last week of the season.

Most at stake: Majak Daw

Set to rise: Kayne Turner

Fourth: Port Adelaide
Their performance last this season was an aberration, just like their team song. The talent pool runs far too deep for this team to miss the finals and the list profile is cherry ripe for an assault on the flag.

If the ‘Dixon Risk’ pays off and Chad Wingard, the Gray brothers and Travis Boak continue their natural progression this is a team which will prove they are far more 2014 than 2015. The dark horse, provided Ken Hinkley can come up with a plan B.

Most at stake: Ken Hinkley

Set to rise: Robbie Gray

Fifth: Western Bulldogs
The darlings of 2015 will look to go one better, but their problems will remain and are likely to keep them from progressing deep into September. Rookie coach Luke Beveridge was a revelation, but this season’s soft draw will not be repeated.

Tom Liberatore is in essence a new recruit in the league’s best young midfield group, but the lack of an elite defence and ability to play away from the comforts of Etihad Stadium will remain a real concern. Will remain everyone’s second favourite team, but even Bob Murphy might lose his sense of humour unless they can become finals-ready.

Most at stake: Tom Liberatore

Set to rise: Jake Stringer

Sixth: Richmond
Logic says the Tigers will learn from losing three elimination finals in succession. Logic doesn’t take into account one thing – this is Richmond, and they are simply not tough enough, nor are their so-called stars up to it when the intensity rises.

There is far too much talent here to see the team drop away and they will promise oh so much, but another first-round exit looms. No-one deserves success more than the Tigers faithful, but just like the last 33 years they will have their hearts broken at the most inopportune time.

Most at stake: Damien Hardwick/Trent Cotchin

Set to rise: Anthony Miles

Seventh: Fremantle
One of the big sliders unless one of two things happens – Ross Lyon revolutionises his game style, or they can find a way to replace the two best players to ever wear the purple anchor. Luke McPharlin has retired, and while Matthew Pavlich is undecided he may do more damage staying around.

Nat Fyfe is a superstar, but can’t be in more than one place at once and the reported addition of Harley Bennell has Ryan Crowley excited but smacks of desperation at a club that needs an injection of skill. But at what cost? Far too many foot soldiers don the purple each week, leaving Lyon in an unenviable position. Can he change the gameplan to have a chance to succeed, when he doesn’t have the skill on the list?

Most at stake: Ross Lyon

Set to rise: Connor Blakely

Eighth: Sydney
While the AFL brains-trust tries to work how they can avoid seeing the decline of the teacher’s pet, the future of Lance Franklin seems uncertain and a number of key premiership players are in decline, or headed towards a recliner.

Adam Goodes, Rhyce Shaw, Jarryd McVeigh and Ted Richards are either nearing the end or already done, while the likes of Heath Grundy are ‘system’ players who rely on those around them being stars. Luke Parker, Josh Kennedy, Kieren Jack and Dan Hannebery will ensure the Bloods don’t slip totally out of relevance, but an elimination final beckons.

Most at stake: John Longmire

Set to rise: Isaac Heeney

Ninth: Collingwood
Can Nathan Buckley coach? We all know he is a first-class media performer but as for the coaching bit, well we are set to find out in 2016. Adam Treloar looks set to join a team stacked with top-end talent but far too inconsistent to be a contender.

While the Pies may never get thrashed, their ability to defeat a top side is non-existent. Scott Pendlebury, Dayne Swan and Travis Cloke are a year older; the future lies with the likes of Steele Sidebottom, Jamie Elliott, Brodie Grundy, Adam Treloar, Jack Crisp, Nathan Brown, Jack Frost and Jesse White… well, the first seven in that list anyway!

Most at stake: Jamie Elliott

Set to rise: Levi Greenwood

10th: Essendon
John Worsfold comes on board hoping that Adam Hunter will walk through the doors at Windy Hill so he has a plan B. Cale Hooker might actually be a fair version of Hunter, while Michael Hurley and Dyson Heppell are on the verge of stardom and young gun Zach Merrett is the next big thing.

‘Woosha’ figures to get some leeway as he navigates through a tough time and prepares this side for a bright future, without any of the controversy or questionable supplement scandals of years past.

Most at stake: John Worsfold

Set to rise: Zach Merrett

11th: Adelaide
This year’s good news story, their top-end talent hides a serious deficiency deeper in the list. Their best midfielder has left, and their second-best is going on 34 years of age. The forward line is elite but the back line leaks far too many points, with too many players unwilling to play footy unless it is on their terms.

The new coach seems set to be on a hiding to nothing, and this year’s tragic events may tell on Taylor Walker, Rory Sloane, Sam Jacobs and Eddie Betts.

Most at stake: Mark Ricciutto

Set to rise: Rory Laird

12th: Geelong
Chris Scott must have felt like a reality TV star in his first season as coach, taking Geelong to a premiership despite having little idea on the caper of coaching in 2011. Fast-forward four years, and the results have gotten progressively worse each year. If this was Survivor, he may well have been voted off the island.

Some of the young talent is promising but the losses of James Kelly, Mathew Stokes and Steve Johnson rip the fabric away from such a proud, loyal club. How this list reacts to having a star like Patrick Dangerfield come in and take over as top dog remains to be seen; the gaping hole between the young and old threatens to be a significant issue that Scott Selwood and Lachie Henderson won’t fix.

Most at stake: Chris Scott

Set to rise: Cam Guthrie

13th: Greater Western Sydney
The Giants look set to lose Treloar, which will be a crippling blow, and Cam McCarthy which will just be a good business decision. There are early draft picks at every turn, but the likes of Jeremy Cameron, Dylan Shiel and Steven Coniglio have a long way to go before leading their side into September.

A putrid record against good teams, especially away from home, and an inability to consistently score means they are set for another season in the bottom half of the ladder.

Most at stake: Jeremy Cameron

Set to rise: Dylan Shiel

14th: St Kilda
The young talent on display at the Saints will stabilise in 2016 and six to eight wins looks likely again. Nick Riewoldt and Leigh Montagna are on their last legs but Jack Steven and David Armitage look poised to take the leap into the elite. Alan Richardson will be looking to eliminate the heavy defeats and model a side that can play at any venue and not just Etihad Stadium.

Most at stake: Tom Hickey

Set to rise: Jack Billings

15th: Melbourne
Paul Roos, he of the Jedi-mind trick, is on his way out the door. We are told on a weekly basis that the creakiness of that door is someone else’s fault, so Simon Goodwin is left holding the WD-40 and with a list that should be chock full of talent.

Given how poorly Melbourne has gone during the last decade, to place any confidence in the club’s recruiters would be folly. Luckily the Demons fans get to go and watch Jesse Hogan every week, at least until he returns home to Western Australia in a few years.

Most at stake: Jeremy Howe

Set to rise: Jesse Hogan

16th: Gold Coast
The culture of a footy club is non-negotiable, and the Suns made a statement as they were happy to let two of their three most talented players in Charlie Dixon and Harley Bennell walk. Gary Ablett is a year older and while Dion Prestia, David Swallow and Jaeger O’Meara look set to return and Aaron Hall and Tom Lynch are stars, 2016 is shaping as another tough development year. Rodney Eade may find himself with a media role by July.

Most at stake: Jaeger O’Meara

Set to rise: Aaron Hall

17th: Brisbane
The talent seems there, but no-one wants to stay at the Gabba. While James Aish has probably realised he has no currency and is best off staying, the decision to axe captain Jed Adcock seems strange. In Dayne Beams, Tom Rockliff, Pearce Hanley, Daniel Rich and Mitch Robinson the talent is definitely there, but Justin Leppitsch faces a challenge in getting the team to perform before the clock starts ticking on his coaching career.

Most at stake: James Aish

Set to rise: Lewis Taylor

18th: Carlton
Brendon Bolton walks into most low-pressure job in recent AFL memory. Going from Hawthorn to Carlton must be like playing a different sport, and he would recognise it will be a slow, long build. Despite having Patrick Cripps there is not much to look forward to on the horizon.

Matthew Kreuzer tried to leave but came grovelling back, and will now attempt to establish himself as an AFL player. Bryce Gibbs and Marc Murphy will toil away, but 2016 is set to be at least as bad as 2015 was. The form requesting a priority pick in 2015 should be stored away but kept close at hand, because it will be needed again in 12 months.

Most at stake: Matthew Kreuzer

Set to rise: Patrick Cripps