The start of the NBA season is just 19 days away. We’re so close to the start of Sacramento’s in-fighting, Robert Sacre’s bench celebrations, and Josh Smith’s immortal long step-back twos.
It’s going to be serene. And that’s just California.
Over the next three weeks we’ll be previewing every team in the league, breaking the conferences down into three parts: the cellar-dwellers, the middle class and the contenders. Why are we doing it this way? Because it’s God’s plan. And how are you going to stop God’s plan?
Thank you DeMarcus. We’ll see you at the end of the article. For now though, let’s start a little further south.
15. Los Angeles Lakers
Last season: 21-61, 14th in the West
Key arrivals: Roy Hibbert, D’Angelo Russell, Lou Williams
Key departures: Jeremy Lin, Carlos Boozer, Jordan Hill
Who likes bad shots? If you do, go west, young man. In Kobe Bryant, Lou Williams and Nick Young, the Lakers have a holy trinity of the NBA’s least efficient shot-takers. Last season Bryant and Young conspired to shoot 37 per cent and 36 per cent from the floor and Lou-Will wasn’t much better at 40 per cent. In other words, DeAndre Jordan has more hope of making free throws than these three have of making shots.
The Lakers are going to be terrible on defence. This is a fact. Beyond Roy Hibbert and maybe Brandon Bass, L.A. doesn’t have a single average defender who is going to play minutes. This team is going to regularly have Russell, Williams and Bryant on the floor at the same time, which is like frightening post-modern art from a defensive perspective. If Mo Williams or Corey Brewer are ever going to drop 50 again, it’ll be against these Lakers.
The more interesting question though is how on Earth does this team generate efficient offence? Russell and Julius Randle will be wayward through their growing pains. Swaggy P is Swaggy P and we’re three years removed from Bryant, now 37 (or as I like to say, two years older than Tayshaun Prince), being an effective offensive player. You’re in a bad place when your best source of buckets might be Lou Williams jacking with no conscience.
Add in the most antiquated coach in the league and the Lakers don’t have a prayer of sniffing the playoffs. There is talent though, and Roy Hibbert by himself should elevate last year’s 29th ranked defence.
2015-16 for the Lakers is ultimately about finding out who will be around in 2018-19. In Russell, Randle and Jordan Clarkson, the Lakers have three exciting young talents who will be their future. In the meantime, enjoy the firestorm of clanked mid-range jumpers Los Angeles.
Predicted record: 25-57
14. Portland Trailblazers
Last season: 51-31, sixth in the West
Key arrivals: Gerald Henderson, Mason Plumlee, Al-Farouq Aminu, Ed Davis
Key departures: LaMarcus Aldridge, Wesley Matthews, Nicolas Batum, Robin Lopez, Arron Afflalo
It’s hard to imagine a more violent and sudden rebuild in NBA history than what Portland went through this off-season. In February, the Blazers were legitimate title contenders and by March they were finished, staring into the abyss of NBA purgatory.
To their credit,the Blazers didn’t mess around in July – they’re not taking any half measures.
Eighty per cent of their starting line-up from last season is gone. This is Damian Lillard’s team now (sorry Meyers Leonard) and Portland’s ability to be competitive this year will live and die with his stardom.
In Noah Vonleh, CJ McCollum and Meyers Leonard, the Blazers have some interesting pieces, but there are just too many holes. When Gerald Henderson is your second best player, that’s a recipe for a top-five draft pick. Regardless, the Blazers are loaded with competent pros – guys like Ed Davis, Al-Farouq Aminu and Mason Plumlee – and they have a bona fide star in Lillard. That should be enough to make them ‘respectably terrible’ this season instead of ‘a blazing inferno of awfulness’.
Predicted record: 28-54
13. Denver Nuggets
Last season: 30-52, 12th in the West
Key arrivals: Emmanuel Mudiay
Key departures: Ty Lawson
After two years lost to the awkward mediocrity of the Brian Shaw non-era, the Nuggets finally have some direction. They have a new coach in Mike Malone and a new point guard to lead their future, with the fresh excitement of Emmanuel Mudiay replacing the murky troubles of Ty Lawson.
Perhaps most importantly, the Nuggets seem to have finally come to the realisation that it’s okay to be bad. Unlike in previous years, this off-season Denver didn’t lavish any bad contracts on free agents to paper over the cracks. JJ Hickson’s three year, $16 million contract is still on the books as negative reinforcement. Reminder: Hickson does nothing good on the basketball court.
This team will be built around Emmanuel Mudiay, Jusuf Nurkic, whatever the likes of Gary Harris and Nikola Jokic can give them, plus their upcoming draft pick which is likely to be in the top half of the lottery (they have the right to trade picks with the Knicks. New York you may now light yourself on fire). In Wilson Chandler, Kenneth Faried and a seemingly rejuvenated Danilo Gallinari, the Nuggets have some veteran talent too who can also function as movable trade assets.
Denver is going to be bad this year but they’re also going to be a lot of fun. Mudiay will be wild and reckless (expect turnovers. Expect a lot of turnovers) but there will be plenty of highlights. Gallinari’s unconventional offence is a joy to watch, as is Faried’s hustle. And a Nurkic/Jokic Bosnian/Serbian big man tandem will be a delight.
Predicted record: 30-52
12. Minnesota Timberwolves
Last season: 16-66, last in the West
Key arrivals: Karl-Anthony Towns, Andre Miller
‘Key’ departures: Anthony Bennett, Chase Budinger
Finally, a little bit of basketball hope to warm up the freezing Twin Cities. The T’Wolves have the past two number one picks on their roster in Towns and Andrew Wiggins and both look to be the real deal. That’s the good news. The bad news is that the rest of the team is a mess.
If you were to look at every roster in the league, Minnesota’s is the one that makes the least sense. They have Karl-Anthony Towns and Gorgui Deng as the young future in the frontcourt, but they also have Nikola Pekovic on a $60 million contract and Kevin Garnett who is 60 years old, both of whom will eat away valuable minutes.
The backcourt and wing positions are a bizarre chaos of opposing ideals with the young excitement of Zach Lavine, Shabazz Muhammad and Andrew Wiggins countered by the presence of ageing veterans Kevin Martin, Andre Miller and Tayshaun Prince. And there’s poor brittle Ricky Rubio in the middle of all this mess. Oh, and Adreian Payne, Nemanja Bjelica, Tyus Jones and Damjan Rudez are also on this team, and will all want minutes.
Ultimately though, everything outside of Wiggins and Towns is just background noise. Those guys are the future. For now just enjoy the chaos of Zach Lavine throwing lob passes to Gorgui Dieng on one possession and then Andre Miller and Tayshaun Prince partying like it’s 1998 on the next one.
Predicted record: 30-52
11. Sacramento Kings
Last season: 29-53, 13th in the West
Key arrivals: Rajon Rondo, Marco Belinelli, Kosta Koufos, Willie Cauley-Stein
Key departures: Nik Stauskas, Derrick Williams
Has the NBA left Rajon Rondo behind? In a league obsessed with threes and getting to the rim, Rondo is incongruous to the setting. Rondo was the best player on a team that made the Finals in 2010, yet at just 29 when he should be in the middle of his prime, in free agency he could only fetch a one-year deal from the NBA’s most dysfunctional franchise.
It’s easy to write Rondo off as a has-been – it’s been three years and a torn ACL since he’s been ‘good’ – but there is some cause for hope. No-one has ever doubted Rondo’s motivation or his work ethic. He’s a basketball savant, and he always plays with a chip on his shoulder. Banished to the NBA nether region of Northern California, Rondo has plenty to prove. He’ll have some toys to play with too, working with DeMarcus Cousins, one of the league’s 10 best players, and Rudy Gay, a re-invented offensive weapon.
Everything dies in Sacramento though. This team and its ownership is a farcical catastrophe. Willy Cauley-Stein makes no sense on a team with Cousins and Kosta Koufos, giving them three centres who need playing time. The Kings do go nine-deep in real NBA players though, and that’ll be enough to keep them on the fringes of the playoff race if circumstances conspire to help them.
They’ll need Rondo to elevate them into the heart of the discussion though, and while it’s not incomprehensible to think the former championship Celtic and recent malcontent Mav has something left, it’s not something you can count on.
Predicted record: 34-48
really
Guest
I look forward to continuing to read your season preview articles. I guess we will discuss this later. but assuming Dallas' best case scenario. What is their ceiling? Even if DWill was on par with Chris Paul like he used to be Dallas just doesn't have the firepower to compete with the Spurs, Rockets, Thunder and Warriors. So in a borderline unrealistic best case scenario Dallas is the 5 seed and makes a 2nd round exit. They have no chance at winning this season. To quote Ricky Bobby. "If you're not first you're last" and to me the Dallas Mavericks would be better off being last. Having the chance to draft a franchise changing talent, letting guys like Mathews and Parsons fully recover then Trying to hit with a free agent next summer and then again in 2017 when the cap rises again. As for Dirk. What he does is up to him. he can either play. or sit out and wait till next year
Jay Croucher
Expert
I'll have some in depth Dallas analysis in Friday's column (spoiler alert: I've got them somewhere 6 through 10 in the West). Suffice to say they have a lot of questions, especially regarding the health of Matthews and Parsons. But I think they're a clear step above the dregs of the West. Dirk's gravity is still a recipe almost by itself for an above average offence and D-Will for all his shortcomings is still probably the best point guard the Mavericks have had since... Devin Harris in 2007?? The main thing though is Carlisle. He might be a top three coach in the league. After he took that garbage 2012-13 Mavs team to 41-41 with Dirk missing 30 games and starting the likes of OJ Mayo, Mike James, Chris Kaman, Darren Collison and Elton Brand a lot of the season, I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt. No way that guy loses 50 games in a season with a competent roster, which the Mavericks have. Solid points about the lottery protections. It's tough to imagine the Mavs tanking with Dirk still on the roster though, not sure they can do that to him. For better or worse, I think they'd rather gut their way to .500 and give up the #12 pick or whatever than bottom out and have Dirk retiring on a 25 win team.
really
Guest
With how the lottery is Constructed LA have little incentive to tank. Even if they were the worst team in the NBA (Unlikely since Philly and Brooklyn still count as NBA teams) They wouldn't have a 100% chance at keeping their pick. Dallas' pick being top 7 protected means if they have one of the 4 worst records in the league they have a 100% chance at keeping their own pick, but anywhere in the top 6 almost certainly guarantee them their pick as its unlikely that 2 teams outside the top 7 in the lottery would win a top 3 pick. Also I'm not sure why you are assuming health for Dallas. Parsons recently had microfracture surgery on his right knee. Wes mathews is returning from an Achillies injury. Dirk is old, and their bench is terrible.
astro
Guest
There's no chance Dallas end up with a worse record than teams like Minny, Portland and the Lakers. They're banged up at the moment, but healthy, a team of DWill, Wes Matthews, Parsons, Dirk and Zaza/Dalembert could be good. Certainly a lot better than the Lakers...The Lakers are a disaster. And if you think Dallas have an incentive to tank, then the Lakers have even more so, as they owe their pick to Philly (top 3 protected). As for "loaded at PG and SG"...Really??? PG maybe in 5 or 6 years, but currently they're inexperienced and completely unable to defend. And at SG, Kobe will jack up jumper after jumper, and vanish on defence. And I notice you didn't mention SF...a quick look at the ESPN depth chart shows Nick Young and someone named Anthony Brown as the two options at SF. Sounds promising!
really
Guest
Wouldn't just start Tyus Jones at PG. He's looked good in the preseason games they've played
really
Guest
WOW. I think you are massively overrating Dallas. They look terrible. They have an Aging roster, Chandler Parsons just had microfracture surgery, and Javale Mcgee is their best center. They also have an incentive to tank as they owe Boston their pick (top 7 protected) I've been struggling with how i'd rank these teams the past few days. for me personally it will be 15. Denver they look bad now and will be even worse when the fire sale that sends gallo and faried to better teams starts. Also Middiay is a rookie and won't help them win many games 14. Dallas for the reasons listed above 13. Sacramento. George Karl + Demarcus Cousins is a ticking time bomb. 12. Portland. They have looked much better this pre season then i thought. Lillard is still good at basketball 11. Minnesota will either be a really bad team or a fringe playoff team based on the development of their young guys. 11 seems like a smart hedge 10. Lakers. They are loaded at Pg and SG with Clarkson, Kobe, Lou Williams Nick young and D'Angelo Russell and they have a few solid C's in Hibbert and Black. but more importantly in the pre season they have looked like a team playing better then the sum of their parts. They won't play good defense but the Lakers seem to be a must watch league pass team.
astro
Guest
Think Lakers 2016 pick is top 3 protected only...if it falls outside top 3, then it goes it Philly? If that's right, surely its in the Lakers interest to stink this year.
Gavin Barker
Roar Pro
In theory, if Rondo can discover his playmaking groove you could throw a couple of shooters on the wings and form a lineup where one of the best passers in the game has the option of distributing to (arguably) the best centre in the NBA, or hitting an open man outside the arc. Granted, there are a hell of a lot of things that need to fall in to place for that to work, but it'd be fun to watch if it did.
Jay Croucher
Expert
Cheers Swampy. Agree that the T'Wolves are going to be a League Pass delight. Their problem is that Rubio gets injured for fun and if he goes down they're looking at Zach Lavine (not a point guard) or Andre Miller (not an NBA quality player at this point). Still though, there's so much potential for funky lineups. Rubio-Lavine-Wiggins-Towns-Dieng would be an athletic monster.
Jay Croucher
Expert
The answer Tony... is no. The whole organisation is a farce. You're dead right in saying that Cousins needs to be surrounded by shooters, which is why the Kings went out and signed... Rajon Rondo, the worst shooting point guard in basketball.
Swampy
Guest
Sorry badly phrased - I was asking if dope is legal then how can you ban someone for testing positive? It's like your workplace having a ban on alcohol and then coming to your house on Sunday morning, making you take a breatho and then sacking you for being drunk even though you are not at work...
Kevin dustby
Guest
Of course they can check the Broncos
Swampy
Guest
Great review. Can't wait for the next part. West has had dominance over the East for a long time but 4 of those 5 teams will really suck. Whilst Minnesota has a bizarre roster, when you just look at their starting 5 and two players off the bench they look really promising. If KAT has range like is suggested rubio will average 14 assist per game. And that's with his team shooting 27%! I'm League Passing the T-Wolves. Is there any coincidence that since Colorado legalized weed that the Nuggets have sucked? Seriously, if its legal in Denver then can any of their players be suspended for violating the NBA's drugs policy should they imbibe?
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
As for Denver, I love Gallo, but he needs to be fit. And I like what I've seen from Mudiay, but he's still going to be a rookie playing the hardest position for a youngster, and playing in the West he'll often be facing Paul, Curry, Parker, Lillard, etc. I think Denver could be surprisingly good, or horrible. And I'm leaning towards horrible. Meanwhile, the Lakers have had a sneakily solid off-season. Williams, Bass and Hibbert are a decent trio of signings, and throw in the young players, and I think the Lakers have enough talent to ensure they won't be terrible. The issue is they won't be good either, so they're actually right where you don't want to be: mediocre.
Jay Croucher
Expert
Great to have you on board Ryan, we've been expecting you. I think ESPN is probably sufficient, especially because they ramp up the coverage during the playoffs. League Pass is best for the NBA tragics like myself who get a perverse kick out of watching meaningless games between Minnesota and Charlotte.
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
What would I 'hope' to get out of Kobe? I'd love 22 points at 45%, 5 boards, 5 assists, at about 30-32 minutes per outing. But the crucial stat would be about 70 games. What I suspect we'll get is 26ppg @ 40%, playing 35+ minutes, and 45 games.
Tony Loedi
Roar Guru
Totally agree with the bigs in Sac-town. Cousins should be played at Center surrounded by shooters. Can anyone picture Vlade Divac as a successful GM?
Ryan Buckland
Expert
Really pumped for this season. After finding my feet in 2013 and 2014, I think I finally 'get' the NBA. Might even shell out for a League Pass, although there's probably enough games on ESPN to suit my viewing availability.
Jay Croucher
Expert
Having L.A. over Portland is fair. But Lillard is obviously better than any Laker and I think that the supporting pieces - Henderson, Leonard, McCollum, Aminu - might be a bit better than people expect. What kind of stat-line are you hoping to get out of Kobe this year, Ryan? Interesting that you group Denver in there with those two - I was actually thinking about bumping them ahead of Minnesota. I think the Nuggets have a fair bit more talent than L.A. or Portland. Faried, Gallinari and Chandler are all decent, Mudiay and Nurkic are super talented, and they've got guys like Foye, Nelson and Arthur who are pros that won't embarrass themselves. They won 30 games last year and I'm not sure they got any worse. I think the loss of Lawson is offset by the loss of Lawson in the locker room, a healthy, rejuvenated Gallo, a new coach who Faried doesn't hate, improvements from Nurkic and Harris, and the arrival of Mudiay.
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
If they stay healthy (a big 'if' considering Kobe's last two seasons), I think the Lakers will finish with a better record than Denver and Portland - their rosters have been gutted and contain very little talent. Mind you, it's all a bit academic thinking LA will finish above the Blazers and Nuggets. They're all going to suck.