2015 Caulfield Guineas, Thousand Guineas: Preview, top tips

A huge day at Caulfield awaits us, with a spread of great racing throughout the day. Yesterday we looked at the Caulfield Stakes and Toorak Handicap, and today it’s the two main features – the Caulfield Guineas for the boys, and the Thousand Guineas for the girls.

Press Statement is all the rage, and why wouldn’t he be. All Sydney form is the hottest around right now, and at the peak of that is the Chris Waller and Hugh Bowman combination.

Press Statement is coming off a three-length walk in the park in the Stan Fox, following up from chasing home Exosphere in the Golden Rose and lead-ups. He put the runs on the board as a two-year-old, and has followed it up at three.

Behind him in that Stan Fox was Shards, who enjoyed a nice run but wasn’t in the same league, and Rageese, who went hard enough up front to set it up for those behind him. He can improve with a quieter ride to be a rough trifecta hope.

There doesn’t appear to be a whole lot between the Victorian colts, six of which came through the Guineas Prelude a fortnight ago.

Bon Aurum has been up longer than Stonehenge, but had enough talent to take advantage of being in the best spot during the race. Tulsa was the best closer, coming from last to almost take it out. Odyssey Moon was also excellent from well back, as was Last Bullet, both at big odds.

Ready For Victory has been an expensive horse for those backing him this time in, yet to salute despite being favoured each time. Much has been made of blinkers going on him, and he’s drawn to get a cosy run.

Snoopy is an honest type that can be relied upon to run well, but others appeal more as winning chances.

While the six Victorians all ran well in the Prelude, the best run belonged to the Kiwi colt Dal Cielo. He led them along at a fast enough clip for the backmarkers to storm from everywhere, yet he was only nailed in the shadows of the post. It was a huge performance, and augurs well if he can get the 1600-metre trip.

Sovereign Nation is the fresh horse on the scene for the Hayes and Dabernig training combination, taking out the Stutt Stakes at only his third start. Bassett is Peter Moody’s spruik horse, the second preparation in a row he’s hitting a 1600-metre Group 1 off only one 1100-metre lead-up. All of his form is strong.

Tarzino has been coming through the B-grade races, but continues to win well. Kentucky Flyer’s lumping big weights but running well with them in inferior grades. Lizard Island wasn’t far off Bon Aurum two starts back, and got the easy win he needed in maiden class last time.

Mr Individual won’t be the worst horse in the race if he gets a run. More Than Most probably will be.

The star Sydney colt should be too good for them, and with the Melbourne lot looking as even a bunch as there could be, it might pay to look at those outside them, or coming off irregular form lines.

Selections
1. Press Statement
2. Dal Cielo
3. Bassett
4. Sovereign Nation

The Thousand Guineas has assembled an even field, and would be similar to the Caulfield Guineas if you disregarded Press Statement.

The most disappointing aspect is that we’re not seeing any Sydney form in the race to mix things up a bit, with no filly backing up from the Flight Stakes last week.

Pasadena Girl is the only Group 1 winner in the field, and is vying for favouritism after two good runs this prep. The Tranquil Star, producing nine of the 11 runners here, was a messy affair where horses basically held their position to the line, but she worked home well once hooked out after racing in traffic for the most part.

Stay With Me is equal favourite at this stage, and is coming out of the same race. Dwayne Dunn might as well have sat backwards on her, for all the good he did facing the right direction. If you thought she was the real deal after her dominant win in the Atlantic Jewel Stakes two starts back, then it might pay to stick with her.

Miss Gunpowder led throughout the Tranquil Star, which meant she missed all the trouble, and ground away well in the straight. Maybe she’ll do it again, and who could underestimate anything from the Phil Stokes stable.

Jim Cassidy took off mid-race on Payroll, which worked out well for his filly, but caused all the carnage behind him. More power to him, but it made the race hard to rate. Payroll was good though, and is in the race.

Jameka had to do a little work early, and couldn’t catch the two in front of her as they entered the straight, but stuck to her task gamely. Super Cash had the cushiest run in the race, and persevered without looking a winning threat. Neither run screamed ‘Guineas winner’ though.

Sagaronne took off early from the tail, adding to the panic in the Tranquil Star, and simply wasn’t good enough to sustain a long five-wide run around the bend. She was beaten less than a length by Press Statement in a Group 1 up in Brisbane, so she’s still a chance.

Alaskan Rose went from having a nice run to finding all sorts of trouble once the Pumper made his move on Payroll, but suspicion lingers that she might just be a length or two behind the best in this class.

Badawiya won like a top notch filly in the Edward Manifold at Flemington last Sunday, and is a serious player if she can overcome the six-day back-up. If anything, she is probably a point of overs in current markers, and perhaps should even be favourite.

Take Pride bolted in the Champagne at the Valley, but must make the jump from 1200 metres to 1600 metres in two weeks. If she goes forward again, her presence may ensure a tempo where every horse gets their chance, which would be a welcome state of affairs.

This is certainly a race where you can back your judgement with some sort of confidence, and there are a number of runners that could spring a surprise at attractive odds.

Selections
1. Badawiya
2. Stay With Me
3. Pasadena Girl
4. Miss Gunpowder