Dockers' premiership window about to close

How long does a club’s premiership window stay open?

For Hawthorn it seems it will never close, but generally any given club’s period of contention is spoken about in terms of seasons – usually anywhere from between two to four.

Fremantle have been in contention now for three seasons, but although coming close are yet to taste premiership success.

After wasted opportunities cost them an inaugural flag in the 2013 decider, the Dockers finished fourth in 2014, and this season claimed their first minor premiership.

However over the last two years they have only managed to win one out of four post-season appearances. Bowing out in a semi-final against Port Adelaide in 2014, and defeated by eventual premiers Hawthorn in a preliminary final this season.

Both of those losses came at Domain Stadium, where the Dockers have proven to be almost unbeatable, having won 31 of 35 (or 88%), of games played there during the last three home-and-away seasons. In finals at the same ground that figure falls to 40 per cent.

Overall in the last three seasons the Dockers have played 73 games and won 52 of those at 71 per cent. In that same period they only won six of 16 games against teams that finished in the top four of each of those seasons, at 37 per cent.

The discrepancy is pronounced, and by far and away the most significant contributing factor is Fremantle’s inability to consistently outscore the best opposition of any given season.

They can keep their opponents’ totals down. Over the course of the last three home-and-away seasons the Dockers have been the number one defensive side in the AFL, having conceded 4638 points in that time. Sydney are the next best having let in 4730, and Hawthorn third with 5203.

Against all opposition during this period Fremantle have let in an average of 63 points per game, Sydney 71 and Hawthorn 78.

Their midfield is as good as any in the competition, with four time All Australian ruckman Aaron Sandilands feeding the likes of Brownlow Medallist Nat Fyfe, David Mundy, Stephen Hill, Michael Barlow and Lachie Neale.

In 2015 Fremantle were ranked first in the AFL for total hit outs, second in clearances and stoppages, third in disposal efficiency and fourth in contested possession and disposals. So they certainly get enough of the ball, and when they do use it better than most.

However despite their midfielders getting plenty of disposals, the Dockers ranked only seventh for total inside 50s this season, and a lowly 12th for marks inside 50.

For total points scored they were 11th in 2015, seventh last season and 12th in 2013. Conversely triple premiers Hawthorn were ranked first in each of those seasons, scoring 7433 points in total over the three compared to the Docker’s 5921 – or 23 points more per game.

Fremantle’s average score per game against all opposition in the regular season since 2013 is 89.7 points. Against teams that finished in the top four their average score per game falls to 77.6 points.

This season the Dockers kicked 293 goals to be ranked ninth in the AFL for goals scored. Last year they kicked 318 to be ranked fifth, as they were in 2013 after scoring 336 majors in the home and away season.

In total they kicked 947 goals from 66 games. Hawthorn, who were ranked first in each season for goals scored, kicked 1258 – a difference of 311, or 4.7 per game.

With the exception of the Dockers, every side who competed in a preliminary final in all three seasons were in the very top ranked teams in terms of goals kicked.

Put simply Fremantle do not get the ball inside their forward 50 enough, and when they do those entries are not turned into scoring opportunities nearly as often as they should be.

The addition of former Sun Harley Bennell will help. Bennell can play in the midfield or forward half and in either position should bring the ball inside 50 more frequently.

In an interrupted 2015 Bennell averaged 4.3 inside 50s, 0.9 goal assists and 0.7 goals per game, which stacks up very well in comparison to Brownlow Medallist Nat Fyfe, who averaged 4.3, 0.7 and 0.9 in the same statistical categories.

However while the former Western Australian may help with getting the ball inside the Docker’s forward 50, they still must convert those entries into opportunities.

At present, at least on the evidence of the season just passed, they simply do not have the personnel at the club to do so.

Skipper Matthew Pavlich has not yet made a decision on his future, but even if he does decide to go around in 2016 he cannot be expected to shoulder the burden of being the number one forward yet again.

Neither of the two preferred second ruckmen in Jonathon Griffin and Zac Clarke were able to cement themselves in the side this season. Clarke does though have five years on Griffin, who will be 30 by the time next season begins.

Clarke played 13 games and kicked six goals in 2015, while Griffin contributed seven in as many appearances. Although both did adequate jobs backing up Sandilands in the ruck, neither presented much of a threat to the opposition defence.

Of the four young talls the Dockers have in Jack Hannath (24), Mat Taberner (22), Michael Apeness (21), and Craig Moller (22), Taberner is the most accomplished with 28 games to his name. Seven more than the other three combined.

In only his third season of senior football, Taberner has shown steady improvement in each, playing 15 of his games this year. However he is not yet ready to be the number one tall forward in 2016 – even with another preseason under his belt.

Even should Pavlich decide to play next season Fremantle need a key forward. One that will command the best defender, at least the majority of the time.
The club has known this for a while now, and in previous years have tried to lure key position forwards including Collingwood’s Travis Cloke on big money deals. None have taken up the offers.

This year they have Greater Western Sydney’s Cam McCarthy on their radar, who has also expressed his desire to return home to WA.

However the Giants have categorically stated that under no circumstances will he be traded, and will be fulfilling the last two years of his contract.

Although of course that has been said before, and by the same football club.
It has been reported that as of Sunday evening Fremantle were still hopeful of the Giants softening their stance and have offered pick 22 in this year’s draft, and their 2016 first round selection.

The Dockers have stressed they will not be adding any players to the offer, despite rumours of a possible sweetener to the deal involving Michael Barlow or Lachie Weller. Meanwhile, the Giants are still maintaining their position on McCarthy.

Should that remain the case, Fremantle have also reportedly said if they cannot get McCarthy they will take their remaining selections to the national draft, and will not be targeting any other established players.

That would be a mistake. Even with limited draft picks to trade and an even scarcer supply of quality key forwards on offer, the likes of Levi Casboult and Aaron Black could possibly be available at a price the Dockers could afford.

Casboult in particular despite his suspect kicking for goal could be a good fit. Fremantle’s medium and small forwards need a big bodied forward to crash packs and at least bring the ball to ground.

It is unrealistic to expect Pavlich to be that type of player at his age, even if he does goes on, and Taberner is not mature enough yet to do the job. Casboult at 25 is still relatively young and could be that big bodied forward – and maybe more.

If Fremantle fail in their bid for McCarthy, and do as they have said and go to the draft with their remaining selections, an inaugural premiership in 2016 is even more unrealistic.

Generally any given club’s premiership window is spoken about in terms of seasons – usually anywhere from two to four.

For the Fremantle Dockers it could close in as little as four days.