The Caulfield Cup is always a key form reference for the race that stops a nation, but it’s been seven years since the last Melbourne Cup winner ran in it on their way through – Viewed in 2008.
Of course, not long before that in 2006, Delta Blues put the writing on the wall with a third place in the Caulfield Cup before memorably taking out the big one, and everyone can remember Makybe Diva putting in two magnificent Melbourne Cup trials on the way to her first two victories on the first Tuesday in November.
This year’s Caulfield Cup, won by Mongolian Khan, saw a number of horses stake their claim for Flemington in two weeks’ time.
Mongolian Khan was a worthy winner, given a winning ride by Opie Bosson, not having to spend a penny in the run. He was probably produced too soon to be in front rounding the home turn, which only added merit to his staying performance, being a sitting duck for the entire straight but out-toughing his rivals.
He’ll cop a weight penalty for the Melbourne Cup off the back of that run, but will still be hard to beat over 3200 metres, especially if he’s in a dog-fight at the clock tower.
Runner-up Trip To Paris was given a patient ride by Tommy Berry, cuddled away on fence near the tail of the field, and he only had to go around one horse, the failing Set Square, in his run to the line. He was grinding away at Mongolian Khan’s lead for the entire straight, but couldn’t quite get there.
Given his credentials are proven over 4000 metres, we already knew the Melbourne Cup trip wasn’t going to be a problem. Now we also know he has the turn of foot to be competitive on these shores, and the class to measure up. He’s going to be a major player.
Third place-getter Our Ivanhowe appreciated dropping down in weight into Saturday’s race, and can only have been further improved in what was only his third run this campaign. He didn’t have the class to go with Mongolian Khan in the straight after having a good run, and has never run over a two-mile trip before.
I’ll have others ahead of him in my Melbourne Cup selections, but he’s a solid top six or eight hope.
Gust of Wind ran a lovely fourth, albeit beaten by 3.75 lengths, but had a dream run and every chance. She jumped brilliantly and Chad Schofield decided to take up a handy position in a race that didn’t look to have huge speed on paper. She might have a sharper finish if ridden a bit colder next time.
Snow Sky was the most heavily backed international in the days leading up to the Cup, and was a little disappointing in finishing fifth.
Jockey Damien Oliver had him handy as expected, but then had Set Square and Magnapal falling into his lap when everyone else was making their move at the business end, and that was his race done. He simply didn’t have the sprint once he was in the clear, but still worked soundly to the line.
Snow Sky looks like a horse that needs to have the race run on his own terms if he’s going to be a winning chance.
Zac Purton was still sitting quietly on Japanese gun Fame Game, happy for him to be shuffled back to last, when Mongolian Khan hit the lead 350 metres from home. Those with suspicious minds were left to surmise that connections only had winning one race in mind for the horse… and it wasn’t the Caulfield Cup.
Fame Game savaged the line once clear, in a run that no-one missed, and was immediately installed as Melbourne Cup favourite off the back of it. Given the class of horse he is, and that he’s only going to be stronger over longer, it makes absolute sense.
The favourite won the Caulfield Cup, and there’s every chance the same will happen in the Melbourne Cup.
Who Shot Thebarman in seventh was another eye-catcher, making a long, wide sustained run from about the 600 metres, and not once shirking his task in the straight. He doesn’t really get around the home turn at Caulfield either, and appreciates Flemington as we know.
He ran third in the Melbourne Cup last year, and is going better this time around. He’s as tough and hardy as they come, but is he ever going to be quite good enough to beat them all at this level? A lock for a top six finish in the big one.
Hauraki looked like he was going to move into the race early in the straight, but only plugged away fairly to the line. Supporters were entitled to think he could have finished a couple of lengths closer given the run he had. It was a run that didn’t exactly scream 3200 metres, and he’s unlikely to be a threat.
None of the others did enough to recommend them as winning or place hopes if they head to the Melbourne Cup.
I think the Caulfield Cup form is going to prove a strong reference to the Melbourne Cup this year, and we can expect a few from the race to be in the first handful of horses home on the day.
At this point in time, if I had to pick the three best chances from what we saw on Saturday, you’d have to go with Fame Game, Trip to Paris and Who Shot Thebarman.
We’re still going to have a heap of different formlines heading in though, with the Geelong Cup to be run this week, the Cox Plate and Preferment not to be underestimated, several internationals to run sight unseen here, as well as the Lloyd Williams horse Amralah.
But did we see the Melbourne Cup winner run on Saturday? I reckon yes. What do you think?
BAZZA
Guest
what about Grand Marshal . Two starts past 2500 and both wins.
Rabs
Guest
That's a good read KV. Just wondering how you deduce that the Herbert power pace wasn't up to the caulfield cup when times were the same? The different day theory is debunked by matching the 2 x 2000m races on same day coming out even. So I'm wondering if Amralah should be given a high pass mark similar to that of c cup runners? If so, he's the value! I suspect your tempo theory comparison between the 2 will be in the breakdowns if the early/mid/late sections & when the pace went on?
kv joef
Roar Guru
You are quite right identifying careful examination of races at certain times, particularly in a targeted prep as happens in the spring. EG Flemington has 3 major 2000m contests - Turnbull Stakes, MacKinnon Stakes and the Australian Cup. All genuine G1s. The median times for these races are ... Turnbull Stakes - 02:02.9 (002:01.5) MacKinnon Stakes - 02:02.3 (02:01.7) Australian Cup - 02:01.1 (01:59.9) ... the figure in (brackets) represents for argument sake = the average - one standard deviation giving a time-figure that only the very best performances should match or better. As you can see there is a solid variance / improvement as the spring progresses. Some might suggest this clearly identifies the fitness improvement of good horses heading towards their goal and can be used as a benchmark. EG the Turnbull is just outside the magic-month of fitness in regard to the Melb GFs. this year it ran on the 4/10 and the Mackinnon will be run on 1/11 a diff of 26 days. there seems an improvement in the median of 00.6sec (approx.3 lens). The Australian Cup in 1.8 sec faster than the Turnbull and 1.2sec faster than the Mackinnon - go figure. Here is a plain indicator this race is a GF. Horses come into this race peaked and ready for a battle and it shows. the Mackinnon shows fit horses that maybe have a little improvement or even horses that are about to slide in fitness. newbies have to be careful drawing assumptions ... EG the race tommorrow night (Manikato) ... it is pointless going back before 2006 as the nature of the race has changed (for the better). for the uninformed their is a lot of erroneous talk about bias when tempo/pressure was the culprit. to your question, Amralah's Herbert Power was very similar to to SStar's Coongy ... an even pace (i know this needs more explanation but later). The Caulfield Stakes on the same day was very similar to the Caulfield Cup - a testing pace. just a short note about the times in (brackets) above. in the Turnbull,during the last 20 years only 4 horses have passed this mark - and ... Elvstroem, Makybe Diva, Efficient and my big current big watch ... Preferment. so far a next start the high mark has provided a Caulfield Cup winner and 2 Melbourne Cup winners ... will Preferment let Team Turnbull down? for the record ... Mackinnon provided 3 horses that have bettered the high mark and that hasn't happened since 2004 - Grand Armee, Rogan Josh and All Our Mob. some may say this race has changed its character or because of the rejuvenation work done at Flemington ... but it hasn't seemed to effected the other races. Only one horse has bettered the high mark in the Aust. Cup ... yes it's that no-hoper mare again ... Maybe Diva :) there is other stuff too but maybe i'll condense these thoughts and some others into an article that can be fully dissected by the disbelievers :) .
Rabs
Guest
I'd never thought of looking at the median times over the last 30 years to find some sort of benchmark. Interesting! As another comparison to your stating how quick the caulfield cup overall time was, then have a look at the Herbert power breakdowns. I know it's a different day but there is also a direct comparison on the day to a 10f race which ran very similar to stratum star. So you must say that Amralah sits high based on his overall time then? Granted it was a different type of race in that the winner did take off early....
kv joef
Roar Guru
Agree Bondy and Razzar. Highland Reel will get a cosy too and Ryan won't have any dramas about upping the ante a long way out. he will want to bust Arod and a few other wannabes Complacent is a real chance along with about 7 others :) . Criterion might not get the cushy everyone expects but he deserves a strong liking. All i want to see from Preferment is him moving into open ground around the 800m and have an uninterrupted gallop home. He might even get on the back of Kermadec who is far from discounted in my book. Kermadec has the pedigree of a classic middle distance horse and barrier 10 will play into Bossy's hands. i was surprised Hugh went with Winx as i thought he would have wanted to protect his Cup horse but Nash will do OK. this race is a classic :) .
Razzar
Guest
I'm with bondy on the Criterion line, he was a little unlucky last year. But must say, I don't ithink Preferment is in the WfA class as the former. In fact I think Complacent at 2040 could even have an edge on preferment. But more form to do but Complacement will sit up near the speed. Probably 4th.
Bondy
Guest
kv There's an unusual amount of go forward horses in the Cox Plt this year, although not necessarily a speed ladened race but should bode well for Criterion just sitting of the pace and setting up nicely for Preferment form the back who's drawn nicely away from inside gates ...
kv joef
Roar Guru
interesting way to look at it Rabs ... and your reasoning is fair enough as you mentioned the point-to-point splits were similar for both races. for curious newbies, i look at it in a couple of ways ... race-speed and race-pressure. the median for the last 30 Caulfield Cups is 2:28.8. MKhan's time was 8th fastest in that period and 6 lens faster than the median. The 3 placegetters ran strongly to better the median. Gust of Wind came in on par. Concerning Stratum Star's race - the last 30 Coongy's median was 2:03.1 - all but Fenway and the lock-jawed Dibayani bettered the median. Begins to give an inkling that the race-pressure wasn't really testing but good all the same. SStar also ran 6lens better than the median and 6th fastest in the last 30. you will notice that the pace horses in the Coongy stayed up front (excepting Fenway who went wrong). The pace should rightly be described as even. of the pace horses in the CCup only Snow Sky and Gust of Wind held ground and the pace had good horses like Set Square, Royal Descent and Magnapal crack and finish near the tail and a second slower then the median. i dismantle the race on this general framework. i too am looking forward to the Cox for the reasons you've stated. we will get to see what Preferment will do under speed pressure. i think he will do quite well.
Rabs
Guest
I've had a look at the sectionals. Let's break the cup down in comparison to the Stratum Star 2000m race. I know it's hard to compare a race that was an extra 400m but : Stratum Star race first 800 1.26.54 last 600m 35.59 c cup 1.52.45 35.31.That's an extra 25.91 for the extra 400m of the cup (not real flash!). Trip to Paris for example 1.28.85 from start to the 1000m. Stratum Star from the start to the 600m 1.26.86 for the same distance covered. What does all this tell me? I don't think they went along real quick in the Caulfield cup. Which makes the race dangerous when claring runners in this as certainties for the Melbourne cup. Fame Game was entitled to come home quick bludging along out the back doing nothing in an average run race. I dare say the metres/second ratio will be a lot quicker in the cox plate with The Cleaner! What if Preferment or Hartnell run top 3 in a very fast run race compared to the Caulfield cup??
Franky
Guest
Look at Viewed CC run before he won, he ran into horses and ducked and weaved up the straight. Then won EASY in the big one. Grand Marshall got held up the last 200m,, would have been finishing just as well as Fame Game with clear running and clearly gets the trip
Georgina
Guest
1st and 2nd were great melbourne cup runs
michael steel
Guest
Just to be a bit lighthearted and to kill two birds with one stone. One of my punting mates has always said tongue in cheek, Glen Boss's best ride was his second on Makybe Diva by a lip n the Caulfield Cup to Elvestroem thus not getting a penalty. Maybe Zac should have had a chat with Bossy before the race. In reply to Gerry Collins article, those who complained about the watering of the track. She ran a time 3.19.18 which is pretty quick and the track was upgraded to good after the Cup.
Razzar
Guest
Scuba, the stewards have put Zac on-notice to ride the same as C Cup. He's not stupid, he won't risk a big fine or big time without his leg-over. Also Fame game loves racing between runners as they possibly fall back on him as he straightens, weaving and dodging.
razzar
Guest
Actually rabs, it Does happen, because jockeys have to make a living.
razzar
Guest
Its not out of line of the stewards. The connections have set the precedent, so the punter knows what riding style is adopted. Punters need confidence, confidence gone! Everything gone!
Scuba
Guest
Robert, there has been one international horse win the Cup without a leadup - Vintage Crop in 1993. Cam, agree with the query on Trip To Paris' run behind Max Dynamite, but Quest For More beat home Trip To Paris over 2 miles at that horse's second last start in Europe when he was beaten half a length (and so must have run ok that day). The start before he beat Max Dynamite over two miles. Still $41 to $51 available in some places for Quest For More for the Melbourne Cup, will shorten dramatically if he can win the Geelong Cup. Ed Dunlop is going to have the sentimental favourites going into the race for sure though - the opportunity to shed his bridesmaid tag in the Cup with either the ageless warrior Red Cadeaux or Trip To Paris with his remarkable owner Andy Gemmell.
Bondy
Guest
An important element to punting is evaluating prices of horses after they've run around , with Mongolian Khan he had them covered turning for home and astute punters knew they were in trouble if they weren't on him he's subsequently won comfortably by a half length taking off also to early , that effort suggests to me he should've ran around at about $ 5-4 or $ 6-4 . Do foreign horses give better prices for domestic horses who like Mongolian Khan was last weekend most definitely a " good thing " ? ...
Tomas Kelly
Roar Rookie
Spot on Justin.. I thought Grand Marshall ran a great MCup trial. The horse looked like he had hardly raced in the day-stalls afterwards. Fame Game looked much the same as well
Cameron Rose
Expert
Any time I see an 11 length result with credentialed horses, I have to assume something amiss with the trailing horse. Otherwise, we're saying Mongolian Khan would have won last years Melbourne Cup by 10 lengths! (ie - how far Protectionist was beaten on Saturday)
Cameron Rose
Expert
Huge watch on Preferment Bondy, I agree. He really could be one out of the box, and is a genuine staying talent. Yeah, Snow Sky was disappointing for mine. Once the race didn't pan out perfectly for him, he couldn't go with them.