The first four weeks of A-League football is enough to convince me there is an extremely high degree of probability the champion team will again be one of last season’s top two – Melbourne Victory and Sydney FC.
It is too early to say no other team can win, but of the other eight I would say the door is slightly ajar for Brisbane Roar and that while it isn’t shut on Melbourne City there is only peeking space available for them at this stage. =
I don’t see any other team as a genuine championship contender.
Newcastle Jets have made a bright start to the season under a confident new coach in Scott Miller and could easily go on to make the finals – after all, six of the 10 teams do – but there isn’t enough substance there for them to win it all.
Wellington Phoenix have some appeal under coach Ernie Merrick, but last season they fell at the final few hurdles even with Nathan Burns in the side. The overwhelming likelihood is that they won’t be able to match the likes of teams like Victory and Sydney at the death.
The current doubt over Wellington’s future as an A-League club beyond this season is an issue they could obviously do without as well.
Perth Glory have had a big turnover of players since the club was caught cheating the salary cap last season and this season’s version is not nearly as good. Glory play a reactive style of football as well that won’t be good enough when it comes to the crunch.
Western Sydney Wanderers have shown some encouraging signs early on, but their squad isn’t as good as the ones with which they started the club’s first seasons and finished beaten grand finalists each time. There aren’t any Shinji Onos or Aaron Mooys there.
Fair to say, Mooy wasn’t the same player at Wanderers as he is now at City, but he wasn’t used the same way. Mooy was predominantly a holding midfielder at Wanderers and is the midfield playmaker at City. Wanderers could do with him in that latter role now.
Central Coast Mariners simply aren’t good enough and are more concerned with going down all guns blazing, if that is the way it is going to be, by employing an all-out attacking style they hope will at least attract the fans.
Adelaide United are the major disappointments of the season so far. There doesn’t appear to be the same drive, the same enthusiasm under Guillermo Amor as coach that there was under Josep Gombau. Plus, they continue to lack a dominant front-man who regularly scores goals.
United have started shipping way too many goals early on. They are in trouble.
So back to the four chances, by my reckoning at least, and it is timely to talk about Victory because against Phoenix on Monday night they finally started to put it all together and really look like defending champions.
Victory were off the boil a bit during the first three rounds. Nothing too dramatic, but it wasn’t quite as intense and precise from them as we came to expect last season. It was much better, though, in their 3-0 win over Wellington.
Besart Berisha had missed a lot of chances through the first three rounds, scoring one goal during that time, but he was at his desperate and dynamic best to get a double against Phoenix.
Victory have far too good a roster to not be in the finish of this competition, as long as they want to be. Monday night said they want it.
Sydney FC coach Graham Arnold has concentrated on building a defence that is consistently difficult to break down. Last season, his team had the most clean sheets, with nine, but there were too many other games in which they conceded three or more goals.
One of those was the grand final, which Victory won 3-0.
Arnold coached a Mariners team that was defiant in defence when it won the 2012-13 season championship. It is his trademark to instil that quality in a side.
Sydney are conceding at half-a-goal per game early on. That is a very good sign.
Finally, to the two sides that could potentially interrupt a Victory-Sydney domination.
Brisbane have some issues in defence that they need to eliminate, but they have two excellent young forwards in Jamie Maclaren and Brandon Borrello who are clearly playing with the belief that they are going to score every time they get out there.
Combined with Corona and Thomas Broich in the creative department, Roar are the bowling-ball team of the competition. They can overcome a big mistake by nailing a few quick strikes.
Brisbane will have their downs, but appear likely to have many more ups. They are the type of team that will make the opposition uneasy because of their ability to hurt you not only with the run of play, but against it.
City need to learn hard and fast from their 3-2 loss at home to Newcastle on Friday, after being 2-0 up. That was extremely disappointing and too big a reminder of their frustratingly inconsistent ways of last season. If they do learn, they will push hard for a top-four spot.
But the history of the A-League under the current finals format says you must finish the regular season in the top two to go on and win the championship and that is where Victory and Sydney have the advantage, with strong playing rosters, big-game know-how and consistency under pressure.
The rest face the difficult challenge of trying to break that hold.
Waz
Guest
Bes, opta data is what you're looking for: http://www.a-league.com.au/article/sydney-fc-v-brisbane-roar--3-key-match-ups/1fq781xlf2wms1xykd0g0d95qw There's a drop down menu there that allows you to compare any teams stats to any teams stats (the one used us for SFC v Roar but you can select any two teams)
Waz
Guest
clayts - you should post more often. City = Franjic, Zullo, Hughes, Novillo, Koren injured Roar = DeVere, Steff, Theo, Henrique, Solorzano, Donachie injured. So granted, they are similar in length, and Novillo in particular is a game changer and any sudd would miss him (but the rest were all brought in with dubious injury records!). Where there is a huge difference though is here: City - stable coaching set up, club management, training facilities, finances, pre-season signings, big marketing budget, extensive back room staff. Roar - new coaches everywhere, temporary training facilities, off field disasters, last minute signings, shoe-string budget It amazes me that CFG haven't invested in a bigger name coach, the current one has all the resources, some injured granted, but continues to underwhelm.
Waz
Guest
Agree on point 2 but risky to make unnecessary changes given we will be forced in to at least two the following week. Petratos is going more for this team than he's been given credit for so I hope the only changes we make are on the bench which should now be Solo, Donachie, Lustica, Clut + GK
Waz
Guest
Totally agree - don't take this the wrong way (MV fans) but I think Victory are an egotistical club who need to be the best with on and off field success. Contrast that to SFC who say they are a big club, Victory ARE a big club; on the field domestically they've strived to overtake Roar (and don't we hear all about it) but the panicle achievment is now Wanderers win in the ACL and all other clubs can hold their manhood cheap until they match it - Victory have stated Asia is the next target commercially which can only happen with ACL success so I think they'll prioritise that over the Premiers Plate if need be, hence the SF comment.
Lionheart
Guest
VG
Midfielder
Guest
LH Jerks ...... Jets South Gosford Hackers .... SFC Piss Ants .... AU after there coach called ADL a piss ant town BT...MV ...Big Turds LT's ...MC.... little turds ie baby brother of MV SS,,, Nix ... Sheep Sh.....ers Red Necks ... Roar Inbreds ... Perth Drive Bys ...WSW
BES
Guest
More than happy to watch games and think on how a team could improve - no issue. I would be very interested in knowing what Brisbanes actual conversion rate is - as I commented on another site that I would not be surprised if it is not the best or near the best in the league already. If you have or can access these actual stats I would be more than interested and I may well be incorrect.
BES
Guest
Raises some possible interesting options for Aloisi. So long as Donachie has been able to train fully with the 1st team all week & we are not making any other changes to the back 5 - might be worth throwing him on alongside Bowles for 2 reasons: 1. Just to throw a spanner in the big whingers pre-game plans (GA) 2. To allow North to fully rest and get over any lingering issues if he is still carrying them. Might be tempted to throw Solorzano on instead of Petratos too - but then Petratos always seems to lift even further against his old club and there is a bit of a mind-game spinner to that move as well which I would be tempted to maintain (keeping Petratos starting I mean) I wonder will we see Hervas finally make a showing off the bench? To replace who though would be the big question.
Lionheart
Guest
Holy Bat fronds Batman, they've got a new tune in the palm trees Nice one Midfielder. Good tune too. I heard the Roar Den sing one at a preseason game, to Twisted Sister's We're not gonna' take it. 'We're not gonna' pay you'. fantastic news though, it's now outdated, at least we hope it is. Now, how about you explain those nick names of yours. Some I've seen, let me guess and correct me: Drive Bys = MV Jerks = SFC, but you put an alert on them so maybe you mean Roar SS - you give it away as Phoenix, but why SS? Militaristic they're not. Red Necks - usually reserved for us up north but I'm guessing WSW, more appropriate for MV though. South Gosford - you must mean Sydney, so who are the Jerks? BTs - stands for? AU LTs - Knights? Piss Ants - MCI Inbreds - has to Phoenix, but I'm thinking your own team of boys at Gosford. Better help out here Midfielder, before this is censored.
Ian
Guest
Welcome back clayts
clayts
Guest
Rarely post here any more due to the very fact that aleague commentators just copy each other all the time so this thread got me interested. However, Melb City have a pretty extensive injury list too. 2 socceroo wingers in Zullo and Franjic, who are absolutley key to JvS' gameplan are both out and have yet to play a game. Aaron Hughes hasn't played a game yet and would surely be a walkup start in defence although Chapman has been more than good. Novillo who would be City's second best player behind Mooy hasn't played since dominating against the Phoenix in that rout in the FFA Cup tie either. There's 5 first XI players who are out. To a lesser extent, add to that Marquee man Koren, who didn't play against the Jets with injury either. Makes 6. More than half a side. I know JvS has a horrible winning record and excuses are running thin, but that is one hell of an injury list to absolutely key players all over the park. You mentioned the fact that you weren't aware of any other side with an injury list like the Roar's. I think City's is worse. That being said, I agree, (I'm a Roar supporter) Roar certainly have some of their better players to come back, particularly in defence, which let's face it, IS actually the main problem area if there is one at Roar. Adelaide really should have scored 1 or 2 goals on the weekend. The right team won, no doubt, but 3-0 flattered the Roar a little I think.
Midfielder
Guest
Another version I would say the more preferred version at this stage is this.. We've been around the HAL a couple of times or maybe more. We've won the SEAT!, and DID COMPETE On many an ASIAN SHORE . And though nobody rates us, NewCastle hates us, We don’t care and tell em right away. This is our HOME amongst the Palm-Tree's With lot's of Coast' - ies With a goal - or - two, from the yellow & blue" Waterview's out the front. Leaguies out the back And the Mightyyyy Marinnn - nerrrrrrrs!
Ian
Guest
Yes will come in handy in January.
Ian
Guest
How do you see MV getting to the semi finals Waz? I'm not saying a team can't but there are a lot of good teams in Asia. It isn't many times an Australian team, champion or otherwise made it to even the quarter finals
Midfielder
Guest
The Drive Bys for me are showing good signs and I think they could win the seat ... you heard it here first ... The Jerks also need watching... My Mariners are building a team of mainly kids if we can hold this side together next year but especially the year after we will go close to winning.. Back to this year The SS if they can get around the issues of a licence extension are also to be watched ...IMO the Red Necks, South Gosford FC [previously the Flying Circus], BT's, LT's, Piss Ants, are all in with a show even the inbred's .. The mighty Mariners are still in with a hope but alas a small one.... just for cheering everyone up over the last couple of weeks a member of the Mariners fans forum has created hhhhmmmm developed a new chant which for all the hard core ultra's out there will re-enforce our reputation of being nanny supporters but I personally love it ... still in development but as a draft at this stage... To the tune of John Williams ..."" Home among the Gum Trees""" the latest version We've been around the league a couple of times or maybe more. We've won the SEAT!, and did compete on many an foreign SHORE. Although nobody rates us, We're coming back for more, Let's sing it right away! This is our home among the palm trees, With lots of coasters A goal or two from the yellow and blue, With water out the front, The leagsie out the back, And the mighty Mariners!!! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uKQDgUKw1sw
Waz
Guest
Donachie and Solorzano both fit for Friday: http://mobile.news.com.au/sport/football/brisbane-roar-fitness-boost-ahead-of-sydney-fc-clash-with-jean-carlos-solorzano-tipped-to-return/story-fndm8jin-1227593775166?sv=b00d1f3e701581b8ee0642d41c91a124
Bob
Guest
There is truth in the statement there's lies, damned lies and then there's statistics though, with the interpretation of those statistics often problematic eg statistics credit Matt Mckay with one assist on Saturday but my eyes tell me he had two assists so at the very best statistical analysis is based on partial data making it suspect. It would be nice if the stats from those GPS devices they're all wearing now were released but they don't
Justin Thighm
Roar Guru
Asian Champions League could be the leveller. Would love to see MV or SFC do well in the ACL, but the further they progress, the more it will hurt their domestic campaign, like it did to the Wanderers. Very impressed with the Roar as well and without any ACL challenges and Aloisi's resurgence as a wiser manager, they will make a worthwhile challenge. Agree that MV, SFC and Roar will feature heavily in the finals, but I was very impressed with the Wanderers and expect them to be a big danger as well. Melb City won't make the top 4, unless they sack their manager sometime soon.
The artist formerly known as Punter
Guest
Dream on mate, you must come from Melbourne, you seem to have an inferior complex.
TheVolley
Guest
Agree with the quality of coaching. It is implied in my post as I pointed out City's lack of quality in that area. I should have said squad depth + coaching to be clear.