A good chance for the Kiwis but Aussies will prevail

Having watched plenty of the Pakistan versus England series in the United Arab Emirates and been entertained – in a darkly comic fashion – by the old-school fare on display, I’m glad the Australian international summer is about to start.

Don’t get me wrong, I enjoy some good, old-fashioned attritional Test cricket as much as the next man who can’t quite bring himself to fully embrace the helter skelter of the Twenty20 merry-go-round, but I’ll be pleased to see some cricket that manages to get out of second gear.

And the Australians, a team with a nice big point to prove, and the New Zealanders, who if nothing else will attempt to play on the front foot, there are two teams to do just that.

Add to the melting pot a Gabba pitch that generally encourages a bit of speed with the ball and attacking intent with the bat and we could be in for a decent contest.

In a funny kind of way, it’s the reverse of last weekend’s rugby World Cup final. Australia will start as favourites given their record on home soil and in Brisbane in particular but their opponents, should they get their tactics right and follow them through, will more than fancy their chances of coming out on top.

With the modern-day approach to the longest format turning the draw into a collector’s item, two of the three Tests being staged on the quickest of the Australian surfaces – and the third an unpredictable lottery given the relevant factors – it is difficult to see how there will be anything but three results.

The Englishman in me will always revert to the caveat of poor weather possibly having an impact but there’s no need for pessimism so the prediction is 2-1 to the hosts – and here’s why.

In simple terms, Australia’s seam bowling is their trump card and the reason why they are priced at much shorter odds than the Blackcaps for both the first Test and the series.

Twelve months ago, with Michael Clarke, Chris Rogers and, dare one say it, Shane Watson in the top six, New Zealand would’ve been hard pushed to get any change out of the hosts. However, with the top order now taking on the appearance of a refitted shop there are chinks in the armour which can be exploited.

Joe Burns and Usman Khawaja, while good players, are very wet behind the ears, neither Mitchell Marsh or Peter Nevill are Test number sixes and Adam Voges is, late bloomer or not, entering the finishing straight.

Rebuilding happens to every side, that’s just the way it is, but even the most positive may have slight reservations about the Australians’ batting come Thursday morning, especially if the conditions favour swing which Trent Boult and Tim Southee are more than capable of exploiting.

But the defining match up will be between the two Mitchells, Johnson and Starc, and the Kiwi middle order of Kane Williamson, Ross Taylor and Brendon McCullum.

If the batting trio, all fine players in their contrasting styles, are allowed to dictate terms then the tourists will have an excellent chance to tip over the apple cart and the same goes for Johnson and Starc.

New Zealand’s success in the Test arena in recent times has been built around an ability to score heavily and do it in double quick time, a method that can only create opportunities to win if carried out successfully.

The Steve Waugh era Australians operated in a similar manner for the simple reason that they had the players capable of such a style and the Kiwis have been doing a fine job of emulation.

Should, however, numbers three to five struggle to get going then a bowling attack who have benefited from being able to search for wickets with little concern for how many they’re conceding will have to change tack.

And if they employ a four-man line-up, as they did in England not too long ago, a great deal of emphasis will fall on the shoulders of spinner Mark Craig.

If Australia can make full use of the bounce on offer in Brisbane and Perth then they can get on top of the game. Aggressive intent with the bat can work in such conditions if the bowling is awry but if the line is good it can go in the favour of the quicker bowlers and the difference in speeds between the opposing opening pairs is marked.

What is certain is this is a good test of where McCullum’s side are currently at. Few sides win in Australia and even though the side they will come up against are in a transitional phase, a defeat to their neighbours – on top of one to the oldest foe – would be hard to stomach.