Well that’s another Spring Carnival done and dusted. Overall, it was really a Carnival dominated in the majors by the favourites – except the big one.
No expert could have possibly tipped Prince Of Penzance in the Emirates Melbourne Cup (3200m), but I am sure that most punters would have had a smile on their face even though they lost.
Here is my look back at the 2015 Spring Racing Carnival.
Highlights
1. The Blue Army Dominates
On paper it looked as though Godolphin would dominate ‘Super Saturday’ at Randwick, but it doesn’t always pan out that way. Well on this afternoon it did with James McDonald and John O’Shea combining to win five of the nine races, including the Group 1 with Magic Hurricane in the Metropolitan (2400m). Could well be the first of many race meetings that Godolphin carves up.
2. Everyday I’m Buffering
Injury prompted question marks on whether Buffering should continue racing. Well with a bit of TLC and outstanding training from Robert Heathcoate, ‘Buff’ returned to racing in the Group 1 Moir Stakes (1000m) and despite copping serious heat on speed, he kicked on very strongly for a brave win, and in the process gave the track record a nudge.
This was one of the more remarkable wins of the Spring.
3. The Genius- Chris Waller
Where do you begin with this man? He has dominated Sydney racing for a number of years now, but he hadn’t really left his mark in Melbourne. Well that changed this Spring, starting off Preferment in the Turnbull (2000m), then Press Statement in the Caulfield Guineas (1600m).
Those Group 1 races are huge, but they could not compare to the champion horseman getting his first major when Winx scored the most dominant Cox Plate (2040m) win since Makybe Diva in 2005. Melbourne now knows who he is, and it won’t be long before he claims the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups.
4. The Glass Ceiling Is Broken
Rewind a couple of weeks back and racing was on the front and back page for the wrong reasons. The industry needed a good story and it got the best story possible when Michelle Payne became the first female jockey to claim the Emirates Melbourne Cup (3200m) on Prince Of Penzance.
Most punters would have lost money on the race, but I can speak for myself when I say I was beaming with joy about this underrated hoop claiming the greatest prize in Australian sport.
Lowlights
1. The sudden passing Of Tim Bell
The highest of highs to the lowest of lows in less than 24 hours. On the Tuesday we were celebrating the remarkable achievement of Michelle Payne, but when we woke up the following morning, we awoke to the news that Tim Bell had tragically lost his life in gut-wrenching circumstances.
It’s tough to swallow when a jockey has a fall and dies from injuries, but when it’s non-racing related, I think it’s tougher to swallow, especially for a young man who had the world at his feet and was destined for great things.
2. The Victorian tracks
Quite simply, it was a disgrace. The track that was dished up on Caulfield Cup was borderline pathetic, and pathetic would be generous to describe the Moonee Valley track on Cox Plate Day. And if those were pathetic, then what can you say for Derby Day and Cup Day? Just simply not good enough compared to Randwick where they had five meetings run in a month and it played superbly. Not good enough from the Vics.
3. The anti-racing brigade
Call them what you want, but it wouldn’t be a Carnival without them raising their heads. They delayed the start of the Melbourne Cup when they decided to tie themselves to the running rail before the Cup. With that delay, $1-2Million more was invested on the race. Cheers!
4. Red Cadeaux
Outside Black Caviar, he has been the most popular horse in Australia since the turn of the decade. It was very tough to see the old boy pull up abruptly, and it was touch and go for a few hours as to whether he will live, but thankfully all seems OK with the champ and he can enjoy retirement.
The Surprise Packet
Azkadellia
She’s come a long way in a short amount of time. Started off the prep with a 70 win at Ballarat and by the end of it she’s Group 1 placed. Should have won on Cox Plate Day, and with normal luck, she wins the Myer. As I said in my Derby Day review, I think she is a 2016 Cox Plate horse. She’s high class.
Aransan
Guest
The United States started at 20/1, did you rate him a 100/1 chance? That is the only way you could have PoP 250/1. If TUS was 20/1 then POP should have been no longer than 50/1 on their relative Mooney Valley Cup performances. A horse race cannot be predictable, there are so many variables to take into account -- otherwise we wouldn't need a betting market. I hope you were still able to feel good about the result even if you didn't win.
michael steel
Guest
II gave him a 250/1 chance. He won. Everyone got it wrong. It's called gambling, That's what we do.
smell the fear
Guest
they have a pretty good record
smell the fear
Guest
he was rated at 25/1 shot. the moonee valley cup is not much of a race normally. the win of POP has put me off ever betting again. its the first time a horse with no form (5th at ballarat) won in about 25 years
no one in particular
Roar Guru
People will continue to back the Japanese horses in the Cup, all the while they are the top of the weights
andrew
Guest
the alleged 'hard' track at caul which caused the complaining was on caul guineas day not cup day. certainly the moaning was all on guineas day. mind you, it wasnt too firm to upset politness who goes best on the wet and raced in the last race and of has run well since. and mong khan who backed up 7 days later to win caul cup. or prince of penzance who ran on guin day. i count 14 subsequent winners from guineas day and 11 from caul cup day. which include derby, oaks, melb cup, caul cup, myer, salinger, wakeful. as for caul cup day,funnilty enough, i have heard complaints that too many leaders won (andrioly, mahuta, vashka, vezaley). i agree, all 4 of these got easy leads. i will tell you another thing, 3 of these 4 races were 1400m races. 1400m race at caul at great for on-pacers given the contours of the track. i think your fair qualification of 'unless they walked in front' indicates that it was tempo related, which means the track is fine, and its up to the jockey to play dare or roll the dice as to what tempo they want to let the leader get away. i guess we will have to agree to disagree that it was borderline pathetic. i'd say caul was comfortably the fairest track all spring, esp given the volume of meetings it held from mid-aug to mid-oct.
Adam Page
Roar Guru
Leaders had no hope unless they walked in front eg Vezelay and a couple of others. Form out of that meeting looks very suspect looking back with a lot of subsequent failures. And the track was too hard, and that can be seen in the stewards report. Lot of horses didn't pull up 100% afterwards
Adam Page
Roar Guru
Concede he ran well, but I think Criterion was the unlucky runner. Had he got out at the same time as the winner, he wins. But as I said, sooner rather than later, an international will win the Cup at their Australian debut
Aransan
Guest
If you ignore the horses he knocked over.
Jason Cornell
Expert
Max Dynamite seemed to run ok - and probably should have won
andrew
Guest
adam - can you please elaborate further on why you think the track on caul cup was 'borderline pathetic'
Bondy
Guest
This was the first Spring Carnival that I can recall where nearly every meet was laden with track bias and still on the last day at Flemington it heavily favoured horses in the top 5 positions turning for home . Racing is becoming a turn off for genuine punters ,unfortunately ...
Adam Page
Roar Guru
On history, you are right Razzar. But I think that can be misleading. A lot of internationals have run ripping races without the run aka Red Cadaeaux in 2011, go back a few years to Mahler, Crime Scene and of course this year with Max Dynamite. It won't be long before another international repeats the deeds of Vintage Crop
Adam Page
Roar Guru
That's exactly right Aransan. Prince Of Penzance was clearly the better run at the Valley and it only took a Bowman special to beat him. I, like many, just ruled that form reference out because the depth was very thin.
Aransan
Guest
Good comment, but anyone who thought The United States was good value at 20/1 should have had a saver on Prince of Penzance at 100/1.
Razzar
Guest
Will the penny drop on our international challengers, that thier horse/s need a run here before contending the melb cup? Had that had happened, the result could very well be different. Congrats to the winner, but the track had an almighty say in who could win the Cup this year. Going so slow was part of it. But any hoop well back at the 1000, had no alternative but to hold nerve and not hook out into quicksand awaiting them beyond five wide. So let's hope this discraceful debarcle is never ever is served up to the punters again.
andrew
Guest
i agree the price difference was wrong. i thought USA was under the odds. more a $40 chance. PoP was about its right price.
Aransan
Guest
andrew, I am sure you have better knowledge than I have on the running of a race. With hindsight I can't see why Prince of Penzance was 100/1 when you consider that The United States was 20/1 when you look at their runs in the Moonee Valley Cup. PoP was meeting TUS 0.5kg worse for being beaten half a length, the relative barrier positions would have made up for the weight disadvantage. PoP started at $6 and TUS started at $3.60 in the MVC so they were rated similarly for that race. Why the odds difference in the Cup? Lloyd Williams versus Darren Weir? A female jockey? I know I am being wise after the event but perhaps there are lessons for the future and the market isn't as logical as we assume it to be.
andrew
Guest
aranasan. i think most experts knew that the rails was the place to be and knew he had drawn to secure a rails run, and this was factored into his price. i think what most experts didnt think was that the pace of the race would be so slow. usually on a rails biased track, you get faster run races, not slower (look at MV the week prior when they ran really fast times). this is logical as there is extra pressure to get across to the rails, creating more speed and pace, etc... the fact they ran home quicker last 400m splits and 200m splits in a melb cup compared to all the sprint races on the day is exteremyl rare, and dare i suggest never happened before. even in the shocking and green moon cups, which were also slow tempo, they still went a bit harder up front.
Aransan
Guest
The form of Prince of Penzance wasn't ridiculous going into the cup, he ran a good race against The United States at his previous start and that horse was given a chance in the Cup. I wonder what chance experts would have given the horse if they had known that there was a bias in favour of the rail taking into account that he drew barrier one and that the race would be slowly run. I didn't back him but his victory certainly owes a lot to Michelle Payne's knowledge of the horse and an expert ride. I always get the impression that Chris Waller's horses have done too much racing by the time the Cups come around, almost as though the Cups are an afterthought.