A-League crowds drop substantially in Round 9

Fuss - You surely know by now I do not speculate on "forecasting" which is a totally different science from "statistical analysis". Statistical analysis can be used in forecsasting for sure but in a straight out forecast the range of variables is much too high to not have at least a + or - figure included in your forecast. Let me explian to the uninitiated to stats or forecasting. With 5 games to be played this weekend featuring home teams Adelaide (average this season so far)10,682, Roar (average this season so far) 11,935,,WSW (average this season so far )13,151,Perth (average this season so far) 7616, Jets (average this season so far) 11,345. the first thing to be noted is that all those averages are showing a "downward trend", However let us assume that they all meet their average in this week's games The aggregate average attendance is calculated by adding the home gates & dividing them by 5 The calculation is thus 54,729 divided by 5 = 10,946. Now because that figure is lower than the aggregate average at game 44 which was 12,471 it would mean that the agg.av. at game 49 would drop to 12,315. That is a downward trend. Cheers jb. ps One of the variables mentioned could be Roar playing a home game in Cairns.

jb I've set up a simple spreadsheet for the forecasts. We already have 4-5 data points for most teams (Perth only has 3, SydFC has 6) and for the unplayed matches I've inputted forecasts based mainly on past performance. For the home matches yet to be played, here are my inputs * ADL: 10k average * BRI: 12k * CCM: 8k * MCY: 8k (apart from 2 derbies @25k each) * MVFC: 23k (apart from 2 matches at Etihad @30k each playing WSW & SydFC) * NEW: 10k * PER: 7k * SYD: 14k (apart from 1 derby @40k) * WEL: 8k (this may need to be revised upwards since WEL has averaged 12.2k since the threat of expulsion) * WSW: 14k (apart from 1 derby @19k) When we crunch these numbers - i.e. actual data & forecasts (above) - we find the season average will be 12.3k. If you think any of my forecasts for individual clubs are excessive, please let me know. PS: I should also add CCM has a 'home' match scheduled to be played in Geelong. It should pull a crowd of 20k. At this stage I've not included that figure in any of the calculations - for either MV or CCM

Fuss- My "apples with apples" comparison was simply based on the fact that Victory has only played 4 home games this season ,Sydney 5 (the 6th could have been affected by boycott). However the different criteria you mention could be regarded as factors that could put a "twist "on the figures but until we get more games played it is hard to speculate that those criteria are affecting season long figures. What you consistently choose to ignore in this discussion is that after 44 games in this current competition where have the "missing" 110,000 gone?.Now I know the boycotts have affected figures this last 2 weeks but 110,000-------, that's nearly 3 derby crowds at Victory's "big" Melbourne ground that have just been "removed " from the overall attendance figures this season. Surely your final sentence is made tongue in cheek. If I remember correctly your forecast for 135 games played would come in at 12,500. That figure after 44 games is 12,471, so if your calcs. are 'tracking beautifully" we can expect a huge upturn in attendances all around the country in coming weeks, a trend that has not occurred over the last 4 seasons. You may not believe me but I sincerely hope you are right. Cheers jb

"No. It would absolutely be expected that during a monumental time of crisis, when core fans are boycotting live games, existing subscribers would be *more* likely to tune in to watch those games." What are you on about? Existing subscribers DID tune in to watch the matches in the same numbers they do when the respective teams are playing away from home. An away match is equivalent to a 'home boycott' since few ALeague fans travel to most away matches. Last week end during the boycotts, the FoxSports viewing for the round averaged 61k, which happens to also be the season average for the 8 previous rounds when there has been no boycott. PS: WSW v BRI recorded 83k viewers on FoxSports. The 3 other WSW home matches this season (no boycotts) have averaged 62k. So that's 21k more FoxSp viewers during the boycott. Additionally, the opening round match WSW v BRI at the same venue got 71k. So, same opponent, same venue - with the boycott there were 12k more FoxSp viewers.

jb You rightly say "in your calculations always make sure you compare apples with apples" yet you conveniently ignore your own instruction. Last season after 4 home games MVFC had played: WSW, City & AUFC at Etihad; and NIX at AAMI Park This season after 4 home games MVFC played: City, NIX & AUFC at Etihad and CCM at AAMI Park CCM always attracts a smaller crowd than any other opponent. Additionally, this year, the CCM match was on Thursday night during the school week with kick-off at 8 p.m. If we look at 'apples with apples' comparison Derby: this year: 2.5k lower this season NIX: 1k higher this season AUFC: highest crowd for MVFC vs AUFC since 2008/09 season & 1.1k higher than last season My season average crowd predictions for this season are tracking beautifully, notwithstanding the boycotts.

No. It would absolutely be expected that during a monumental time of crisis, when core fans are boycotting live games, existing subscribers would be *more* likely to tune in to watch those games. That obviously didn't happen. So what we know, is that less subscribers are tuning in this year compared to previous years, even when interest and media coverage is at a season-high. For the 2 biggest clubs in Australia to be attracting 50k viewers nationally in the circumstances would be very worrying for Gallop & co.

How do club attendances compare with this time last year (as opposed to season figures) ? Surely that's the only relevant comparison.

FIUL - You are not alone in thinking "derby" games will sort out the problem of falling gates so let's look at an average and see how a derby gate affects it in one round of fixtures.. If we say the aggregate average figure across the league is sitting at 13,000 after 30 games If we play another round we find 4 games with averages around 9,000 and 1 with 25,000. That gives us a "round total" 61,000,but the average per game is 12,200 and when that is added to the overall aggregate average attendance ,because 12,200 is lower that the 13,000 we started with it must then lower the overall aggregate average for total attendance figure. Leaving out the recent rounds lets look at round 31 to 35 to get an average gate for the 5 matches. We got 51,515 attending so the average gate /match is10,300. Now if we do the same calculation for games 11 to 15 to get that same average per game (this group included a derby) We got 72,865 attending the 5 matches but the average per round was 14,573 (the derby gate was 40,530!!!) Now to use these figures,between Round 3 (game 11 to 15) and Round 7(game 35) the overall average attendance at all games had dropped from 14,792 per game to 13,089. So you see there was a drop in attendance before any boycott had an effect. Hope this all makes sense to you but these are actual figures not figments of my imagination. Cheers jb ps in your calculations always make sure you compare apples with apples. Last season after 4 home games Victory were averaging 30,345 per game. this season that same figure ls 26.174. Last season Sydney FC after 5 home games were averaging 23,404 per game ,this season that same figure is 19,729. jb

jb It depends on how long the boycotts last. Currently, 7 of the 10 ALeague clubs have home average crowds HIGHER than their season average for last season. Only AU, MCity & Perth are behind their previous season average. MelbCity have 2 home Derbies to play, so even if they average 7k for the remaining non-Derby matches MCity will finish with their 2nd highest ALeague season crowd. If MCity average 8k for the remaining non-Derby matches, they'll hit a record high season average attendance.

It's ridiculous for anyone to think Foxtel ratings would surge due to the boycott & exemplifies an unsophisticated approach to data analysis. Foxtel is a subscription-only product. So, unless the boycotts resulted in a surge in Foxtel subscriptions, only the simplest minds would think the boycott would result in a surge in ratings. Yes, ALeague ratings on FoxSp are down this year, in line with declines in FoxSp ratings for AFL. Additionally, this season the FoxSp ratings for ALeague have remained the most consistent over the opening 9 rounds than any previous season, with the average per round ranging from 59k (R1) to 63k. My gut feeling is that the ALeague is now being watched only by core ALeague fans. Event watchers are no longer interested (fine by me). If this hypothesis is correct, there will be no drop off when BBL starts. The ratings will continue to average 61k for each round.

Glad someone at Roar has finally noticed the drop off in crowds this season and ,forget the last round, for that only accelerated a figure that has been evident from Round 1 this season.Now those readers with some statistical analysis experience will tell you that is perfectly normal and they are right but at game 40, before the walkouts or boycotts, the aggregate crowd figure compared to last season had dropped by 106.000, or in laymen's terms, the average gate for the 40 games had dropped by 2,650 per match. Now before everyone writes in trashing these thoughts there are teams that have suffered less than others but if the HAL is taken as a whole the actions of the "active" support groups are only one of the problems facing the HAL management. jb ps After this round(44) that "drop" figure is now sitting at 110,000 so the "acceleration" is working out at around 1000 per game. jb .

Off topic but just had another AFL player on the turps threatening and abusing a woman story. Already the spin doctors are at it and the boys will be boys ethos is running thru it. I don't want to ruin a guy's career or take away what may keep him from bigger trouble but the obvious hypocrisy of giving a third or fourth chance to a 25 year old while saying first timer sixteen year old getting a bit over excited. should be shown no mercy is unfair. Where are the oh so public safety conscious Vic police?

aha. thats why the guy on the Radio said to boycott the finals.. because he said FFA ran those not the clubs and it would affect them financially.

To mattq, interestingly, it looks like TV ratings were down as well, which is probably not what people expected. CCM v MCY - 51k SFC v NJ - 51k (SBS) & 60k (Fox) Nix v MV - 55k WSW v BR - 83k AU v PG - 49k With BBL starting shortly, it's a critical time for the ALeague.

Crowds were down 100 000 compered to the same period last year and that was before the weekends round.

I wonder whether there was a good increase in tv ratings?

But if MV are always involved with getting the highest crowd, then surely it wouldnt matter where they played?

Pretty sure the match against Adelaide was in the NIX's home city. The match against MVFC was 700kms away from the NIX's home city.

More people went to watch Wellington vs Adelaide the week before

Wonder if the revenue to the clubs is affected. I imagine most of the empty seats have been payed for as memberships. Not a good look on TV but not an unusual look to me being a Melbourne City member.