Internationals make Dragons a top-four prospect in 2016

By Walter Penninger / Roar Guru

At the beginning of 2015 I picked the Dragons to make the top eight and was ridiculed by the many who picked them for the wooden spoon.

Once again many are prepared to dismiss St George Illawarra’s chances next year, but I am calling a top-four finish from a team that could go all the way.

A lot will depend on how coach Paul McGregor handles his new squad, but few NRL coaches have the luxury of being able to pick a full team of international players, with a total of 18 internationals in the Dragons’ squad.

Gone is the soft pack.

Up front, Samoan internationals Leeson Ah Mau (111kg) and Mose Masoe (130kg) share the duties with New Zealand international Russell Packer (121kg) and English international Mike Cooper (103kg).

Crowd favourite George Rose is alas no longer warming the Dragons’ bench, and junior Rory O’Brien is off to the Eels.

In the backrow there’s Welsh international Tyson Frizell (108kg) and former Australian player, captain Ben Creagh (105kg) who are also capable of playing front row. Dragons regulars Jack De Belin and Joel Thompson look likely to fill the remaining backrow positions, leaving Samoan international Dunamis Lui, dual international (Tonga and New Zealand) Silivan Havili, and Irish international Tyrone McCarthy fighting for the remaining position on the bench.

Gone to Penrith, but not going to be missed, is Trent Merrin.

Mitch Rein (85kg) looks likely to be the main hooker, with Havili (104kg) a likely option for hooker and utility forward. Last year’s regular utility player, Heath L’Estrange, has retired.

Former Kiwis captain Benji Marshall and English international Gareth Widdop will be the halves, with local junior Drew Hutchison, Canberran Josh McCrone and former Storm player Kurt Mann possible replacements in case of injuries.

New Zealand international Jason Nightingale looks likely to fill one wing position, Samoan international Peter Mata’utia the other, with local junior Yaw Kiti Glymin likely to miss out. Gone to the Queensland Reds rugby union side is Fijian crowd-pleaser Eto Nabuli.

Competition is strong for the centre positions, with Mann (88kg) and Samoan international Tim Lafai (96kg) likely to force Dragons junior Euan Aitken (92kg) out, along with injured Dylan Farrell (102kg), Taane Milne (99kg), and Samoa and New Zealand representative Kalifa Faifai Loa (95kg).

Charly Runciman has gone to Widnes Vikings, but where McGregor could have justified a spot for former Titans centre James Roberts remains unclear.

The competition in the centres is likely to see Josh Dugan (102kg) remain at fullback, with returning lightweight Dragons junior Adam Quinlan (80kg) a likely replacement during Origin.

The Dragons halves have a competent backline and a strong forward pack to lead around the park in 2016. As such, I am tipping a top year for Benji and Widdop, along with Frizell in the second row, who will benefit from the stronger front row.

The Crowd Says:

2016-03-13T07:03:25+00:00

Wayne

Guest


Mary should get rid of all the girly haircuts as they are playing like big girls.What to hell is going on get rid of the non nursery guys who have no sense of what we are.this is embarrasing

2015-12-23T06:33:33+00:00

Dr Yes

Guest


Maloney's great in attack & goal kicking, but there's method to Uncle Nick's madness. He topped mistackles last year. Check Thaiday v Maloney in Origin. Pearce's role is organising, passing & long kicking, Maloney's was charging at gaps, popping balls if covered, and short kicking (incl bombs). The set moves (e.g. two lead runners + Cordner on sweep), usually have Pearce making 'the pass'. "If one believes that kicking the ball straight to the fullback every time is very good then yes" 'Good' relates to context of game and tactics. Say your team's fit with attacking flair = coach insists keeping ball in play. Say your team's under unbelievable defensive pressure = space + time bought from long kick becomes mandatory. But 55m kick might go 40m high and travel for 7 secs = Slater, Boyd or Coote will find that every time, trust me. Doesn't make it bad. Check this memorable game: http://live.nrlstats.com/matches/nrl/match24744.html Not bad finding fullback on goalline / corner or retreating fast so it took maybe 10m further to turn. Manly: backline (1-7) averaged 150m run *each*; 54% more total metres, 64% more time in opposing half. Surprisingly ineffective in Chooks quarter, but visibly knackered running 100-150m back and return per set. Roosters: 0 line breaks, 5 offloads, kick metres just under 1 km (Pearce just under 600m, Maloney 316m, plus some from Friend/Mortimer). Entire game carting ball off own line to the 20m, getting belted, then kicking for distance. Ever seen team kicking stats remotely as long? Different paths to GF after that one. BTW: Maloney kicked a 10m grubber for a try (so short), made 26 tackles but missed 5 & ineffective for 1, Pearce made 30 tackles, missed 0, ineffective 1.

2015-12-22T12:08:34+00:00

Burgs

Guest


They could put Dugan at fb in defence- he's one of the best defensive fullbacks in the game and a great kick returner- then shift him to right centre in attack where his big frame is very useful; Kurt Mann played plenty of 5/8 as a junior and has ball playing ability so he could play fb in attack. That way you get Dugans strengths as a fb but not his weaknesses.

2015-12-22T12:04:57+00:00

Burgs

Guest


Pearces long kicking game is very good?! If one believes that kicking the ball straight to the fullback every time is very good then yes. Easts will miss Maloney a hell of a lot next year- Pearce in particular will be expected to be the main man and he simply doesn't have it in him. In a couple of years he will go well again with Hastings the dominant half after gaining experience and SBW back making him look good as well. I think the biggest surprise packets this year will be Manly.

2015-12-22T11:57:57+00:00

Burgs

Guest


You have no idea if you don't rate Widdop a top line half.

2015-12-22T11:55:57+00:00

Burgs

Guest


*chief

2015-12-22T11:55:15+00:00

Burgs

Guest


Roosters will be much less competitive next year after losing RTS and choef playmaker Maloney; dogs aren't that special, either are Storm. People forget the Dragons were on track for a top 4 finish until copping a massive injury curse in the back half of the year. Top 6 specials.

2015-12-21T07:15:41+00:00

Charles NSW

Guest


Good comments Dragon 66! Fullback Mann Centres Dugan and Lafai Wingers Nightingale and Matai'Utai Halves Widdup and Marshall Hooker

2015-12-21T05:09:07+00:00

Dragon66

Guest


The things about the top 8 is not about the Dragons having to beat all the teams that are rated above them. It is about how many of them beat each other. So if the Dogs get beaten more often than not by the other top eight rated teams then they will struggle to make the semis. The Dragons have to win more games than they lose and they will definitely finish comfortably in the eight. ! That will be the challenge for them. Nothing else will matters. They now have a team capable of doing that. If we get Roberts he will be the cream on the cake, but it will be more about the team maintaining it's defensive steel, and finding the right combination of players to convert opportunities into points. Dugan is a no brainer as a centre, he scored something 10 trys in his short stint in 2014, but his one handed pass to Nightingale was also a feature of his game playing in the centre. Finding a quality attacking fullback will be the key to scoring points. Widdop, Mann or Quinlan are all options, and good ones. Dugan and Lafai will be as good as any other centre combination in the game, Nightingale and most likely Mata Utai will match it with the best wingers, but the halves are the key to success.

2015-12-21T01:30:54+00:00

Hez

Roar Rookie


Maloney has shifted south as well.

2015-12-20T22:14:55+00:00

Will Sinclair

Roar Guru


I'm not going to name names on here mate! I have no reason to doubt her word.

AUTHOR

2015-12-20T20:30:24+00:00

Walter Penninger

Roar Guru


You have got to beat teams on a consistent basis to get to the top 4, and that is based on commitment and defence primarially in the early part of the competition. Attack does not really play a factor until the later half of the year and the finals. The Dragons have a good halves combination which can guide them arround the park and a strong mobile pack with a couple of big guns and there is plenty of depth in all positions. I am only worried that the coach will not give the cutters players a chance to break into the team.

2015-12-20T04:25:00+00:00

Dr Yes

Guest


Last year consensus on the Storm was identical. Lost prelim final without Slater. Bellamy's a freak, as are their 'top 4'. Kiwi contingent and juniors are deceptively strong. Might be a mini-dip for Chooks before SBW returns. But they've won 3 straight minor premierships, so might still make the 4. JWH, Moa, Evans, Friend, Corder, Guerra, Taukeiaho, Jennings, Ferguson, SKD, Aubusson would probably make any side and Hastings is on the up. Did lose JWH and Pearce for the finals with ligament injuries. Not sure any side can overcome such. Before that, JWH was steam-rolling, some calling him the form forward. They did come up against a red-hot Broncos side, so full credit to them, and so might have (probably would have?) still got the Roosters. Pearce has the best try assists and lb assists summed over past few years and his long kicking is v good. Short kicking, not so much. He finds the man when he kicks from deep to near opponent's line, but hey, physics says the longer the kick, the bigger the hang. Might play 5/8 where his speed and step come into play. How can that chooks roster not be above Dragons? RTS leaves a massive gap. His stats were: phenomenal hitups and metres gained, great 15 try assists (3rd at Chooks), and moderate 12 tries. His replacement, Fergusson: marginally more tries/game, half the metres/game and half the try assists/game. Will probably improve from fullback - if he's lucky, 75-80% of RTS stats? Joe Burgess scored 23 tries and made 13 try assists in super league and made England's top 13. Latrell Mitchell's very young, but his highlight reel should be seen. Agree that Souths have lost major talent - esp in T'eo, McQueen who were Qld stars in '14, plus Walker, Luke and Koroisau all on fire in their premiership year. No secret there's disharmony with coach MacGuire cracking the whip and outing naughty boys. Manly have an all-new pack, but the same backline -Foran +Walker. I rate Foran v highly as clubman and tough player, but Walker might bring some flair to five-eighth, and Stewart's long been second 5/8 more than fullback, so maybe their backline doesn't need to adapt much. Think the role of leadership group will be at least as much as Barrett. Both Trbojvic brothers are good. Dragons caused upsets earlier in the season (notably the Anzac day mega-storm with hail, a real slugfest). Were near top on defensive stats alone. Defense is the most important stat, but won't compensate an attack near bottom. The best sides peak in the second half of the season heading to all-or-nothing finals - but the Dragons had lesser form and were odd-man-out in the finals. Battle for top 4: Broncos, Cowboys, Chooks, Sharks, Sea Eagles Next best: Storm, Warriors, Dragons, Dogs, Raiders, Penrith, Parra, Souths

2015-12-19T23:13:05+00:00

Charles NSW

Guest


Any coach will tell you, concentrate on what you have to work with and the competition will take care of itself. What the Dragons have better than last year is their roster. Depending on how the coach structures his team he has the potential to mix it with the best of them There are a number of people like Walter Penninger and myself who are quietly confident that the Dragons will do well!

2015-12-19T04:26:39+00:00

Doug Graves

Guest


Have a look at the Dragons draw and you'll see why they have buckleys chance. I'd suggest based on the first half of the draw, the Dragons could easily rack up 8-10 losses and no I'm not exaggerating. They face the following: R1 vs Storm (away), R2 vs Sharks (away), R3 vs Rabbitohs (SCG, Neutral), R4 vs Panthers (home), R5 vs Cowboys (away) R6 vs Broncos (away), R7 vs Titans (away), R8 vs Roosters (Dragons home game at Roosters home ground), R9 vs Warriors (away), R10 vs Raiders (home), R11 vs Rabbitohs (away), R12 vs Cowboys (home), R13 BYE. Based on that draw I see the Dragons winning 3 games or maybe 4 (who are they gonna beat?) and their season will be over by round 13. Their second half of the season is only marginally easier as they get to play the Knights twice but still have to play the Dogs twice, face the Storm, Roosters, Sharks, Cowboys and Broncos again. So that's probably another 5+ losses there easily. Forget about top 4. I think a respectable season for the Dragons is to first avoid the spoon and then aim for 9-10 Wins and avoid the bottom 4.

2015-12-19T03:42:33+00:00

no one in particular

Roar Guru


Thurston, Cronk, Johnson, DCE, Hunt. That's the top 25% and therefore top line. I wouldn't disagree if you put Widdop in the 2nd or 3rd quartile

2015-12-18T13:53:54+00:00

Pat Malone

Guest


Every expert seems to say he is

2015-12-18T11:51:46+00:00

Charles NSW

Guest


Mark Gasnier came up with an idea to put Widdop in as fullback, he has played there before. Have Marshall at 5/8 and McCrone as 1/2 back.as he has played 1/2, 5/8 and hooker. This to me sounds an excellent move to start the season off with. Certainly Widdop would be an excellent choice at 5/8 and will give plenty of ball out wide.!

2015-12-18T06:52:29+00:00

Big Willy TBU

Guest


I congratulate Pacific Island internationals on representing their country. I look forward to a small number performing at a consistently high standard in the fastest, toughest competition in the world. Many will be in the same boat as the majority of all NRL players and play less than 50 games in their career. It doesn't logically translate to the Dragons winning more often than not.

2015-12-18T04:42:39+00:00

Waley

Guest


Simple fact is if Dugan plays fullback Dragons don't make the top 4. Unless they change their offensive moves trying to create 3 on 2 overlaps from block plays for a fullback who refuses to pass or simply can't pass. So many times last year the halves created a overlap fro him only to get tackled a meter from their try line. I don't know who they would put fullback instead of Dugan as he returns the ball so well.

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