Seasons greetings - Super Rugby season, that is!

By Rugby Fixation / Roar Guru

As we wind down and celebrate the year that was, I can’t help but feel jolly. Not because of the festive season – that’s fine and all, but no – I’m jolly because each day that passes is a day closer to the start of Super Rugby!

As an avid Wallabies supporter and all-round rugby lover, the inclusion of the Kings (South Africa), Jaguares (Argentina) and Sunwolves (Japan) has made me all the more excited for the commencement of the 2016 season.

It’d be foolish to say this new format doesn’t have flaws. Certain teams don’t play each other throughout the season, some teams will miss out on facing entire continents even, but I’m looking at this new system with an overdose of optimism.

The format banter can wait though, I’m here to discuss how the Australian teams will fare, after analysing their off-season transfers.

Brumbies
Place at end of 2015 regular season: sixth

Projected finish in Australian conference: first

Players in: Albert Anae (Treviso), Tomas Cubelli (Belgrano), Nick Jooste (Perth Spirit), Andrew Smith (Montpellier), Aidan Toua (Agen)

Players out: JP Smith (Stormers), Siliva Siliva (Rebels), Fotu Auelua (released), Sean Doyle (Munster), Nic White (Montpellier), Rodney Iona (UC Vikings), Jesse Mogg (Montpellier)

Extended playing squad: Robbie Abel, Joe Powell and Michael Wells

The Brumbies again have a formidable forward pack, have extended their depth, and the bulk of their players are further battle-hardened due to the Canberra Vikings’ impressive performance in this year’s NRC. The inclusion of zippy Argentinian scrumhalf Tomas Cubelli is also cause for celebration.

The key to improvement is making the backline more dangerous and attacking. This is made easier with Aidan Toua, James Dargaville and Nigel Ah Wong showing they have what it takes to make a stamp on the competition.

Potential XV for opening game
1. Scott Sio
2. Stephen Moore
3. Ben Alexander
4. Sam Carter
5. Rory Arnold
6. Scott Fardy
7. David Pocock
8. Jarrad Butler
9. Tomas Cubelli
10. Matt Toomua
11. Joe Tomane
12. Christian Lealifano
13. Tevita Kuridrani
14. Henry Speight
15. Aidan Toua

Force
Place at end of 2015 regular season: 15th

Projected finish in Australian conference: fourth

Players in: Richie Arnold, Peter Grant (La Rochelle), Ben Tapuai (Reds), Jono Lance (Waratahs), Semisi Masirewa (Manawatu)

Players out: Wilhelm Steenkamp (Brive), Sam Wykes (Coca Cola West Red Sparks), Justin Turner (Associates), Sias Ebersohn (Cheetahs), Zack Holmes (La Rochelle), Pat Dellit (released), Nick Cummins (Coca Cola West Red Sparks), Mitchell Scott (Tasman), Akihito Yamada (Sunwolves)

Extended playing squad: Kane Koteka, Brad Lacey, Ammon Matuauto, Guy Millar, Tom Sexton

Nowhere to go but up, right? This year the Force failed to continue the momentum of an outstanding 2014 season, slumping back to claim the wooden spoon, with their season highlight being two wins from two games over the Waratahs.

Sadly, a lot of the locks in the squad have departed, but the acquisition of Richie Arnold will pay dividends and aid the lineout, while players like Adam Coleman and Steve Mafi smash their way through rucks and tackles. With Sias Ebersohn leaving, the door has been opened for Peter Grant, Luke Burton and Jono Lance to contend for the 10 jersey and rejuvenate a poor attack.

The strength of this team still lies in the forward pack, but if the backline, refreshed with some new faces, lives up to its potential then Michael Foley’s men are in with a shot.

Potential XV for opening game
1. Pekahou Cowan
2. Nathan Charles
3. Tetera Faulkner
4. Adam Coleman
5. Richie Arnold
6. Angus Cottrell
7. Matt Hodgson
8. Ben McCalman
9. Ryan Louwrens
10. Peter Grant
11. Dane Haylett-Petty
12. Kyle Godwin
13. Ben Tapuai
14. Luke Morahan
15. Jono Lance

Rebels
Place at end of 2015 regular season: tenth

Projected finish in Australian Conference: third

Players in: Ryan Cocker (Taranaki), Jamie Hagan (London Irish), James Hanson (Reds), Siliva Siliva (Brumbies), Culum Retallick (Blues), Adam Thompson (Reds), Reece Hodge (Manly)

Players out: Paul Alo-Emile (Stade Francais), Keita Inagaki (Sunwolves), Ben Whittaker (released), Cadeyrn Neville (Reds), Scott Higginbotham (NEC Green Rockets), Radike Samo (Queensland Country), Luke Burgess (Zebre), Tom Kingston (Sydney Stars), Telusa Veainu (Leicester), Bryce Hegarty (Toyota Industries Shuttles)

Extended playing squad: Paul Asquith, Harley Fox, Daniel Hawkins, Michael Snowden, Rob Leota and Sione Tuipulotu

Melbourne have fallen short of the finals since their inclusion in the competition, but have their best chance to rectify that situation in 2016.

A few impressive players have left the squad, particularly Paul Alo-Emile and Telusa Veainu, but their forward pack has been bolstered by a host of players, including Reds recruits James Hanson and Adam Thompson. Add some NRC players who’ve also shown glimpses of stardom in Australian Under-20s team, and the Rebels’ prospects are good – if they can retain the bulk of their young players.

My eyes will be on the development of the much-hyped halves pairing of Nic Stirzaker and Jack Debreczeni, but the whole team is exciting, and they are quickly becoming a lot of spectator’s second team.

Potential XV for opening game
1. Toby Smith
2. James Hanson
3. Laurie Weekes
4. Culum Retallick
5. Luke Jones
6. Adam Thompson
7. Sean McMahon
8. Lopeti Timani
9. Nic Stirzaker
10. Jack Debreczeni
11. Sefanaia Naivalu
12. Mitch Inman
13. Tamati Ellison
14. Dom Shipperly
15. Mike Harris

Reds
Place at end of 2015 regular season: 13th

Projected finish in Australian conference: fifth

Players in: Taniela Tupou (Queensland Country), Kane Douglas (Leinster), Ben Matwijow (Canterbury), Cadeyrn Neville (Rebels), Lukhan Tui (Queensland Country), James Tuttle (Queensland Country), Lagi Setu (Queensland Country), Junior Laloifi (Brisbane City), Eto Nabuli (NRL: St George Illawarra Dragons), Izaia Perese (Queensland Country), Ayumu Goromaru (Yamaha Jubilo)

Players out: James Hanson (Rebels), James Horwill (Harlequins), Marco Kotze (Agen), David McDuling (Sharks), Tom Murday (Agen), Ed O’Donoghue (released), Eddie Quirk (Sunwolves), Beau Robinson (released), Adam Thompson (Rebels), Will Genia (Stade Francais), Quade Cooper (Toulon), Sam Johnson (Glasgow Warriors), Ben Tapuai (Force), Tom Banks (Queensland Country), James O’Connor (released), Lachlan Turner (Toulon)

The Reds have the biggest case of turnstiles in the Australian conference, with lot of new faces – young ones for the most part too, which is great news. It’s the exodus of seasoned players, many with Test experience, that is the real hamper. Worsening the new-look Reds’ chances is that they’ll be missing Kane Douglas and James Slipper for large chunks of the season due to injury.

However, with a lot of young forwards in the squad, the tutelage of newly appointed forwards coach Brad Thorn will prove invaluable. How immediate his impact is will be vital for how the team performs, as this inexperienced group of backs will only fire off the back of forward dominance.

Potential, yes, but it’s hard to see the Reds jumping back to 2011 form just yet.

Potential XV for opening game
1. Pettowa Paraka
2. Saia Fainga’a
3. Greg Holmes
4. Rob Simmons
5. Cadeyrn Neville
6. Lolo Fakaosilea
7. Liam Gill
8. Hendrik Tui
9. Nick Frisby
10. Jake McIntyre
11. Junior Laloifi
12. Samu Kerevi
13. Karmichael Hunt
14. Chris Feauai-Sautia
15. Ayumu Goromaru

Waratahs
Place at end of 2015 regular season: second

Projected finish in Australian conference: second

Players in: Angus Ta’avao (Blues), Brad Wilkin (Reds development), Jim Stewart (Sydney Stars), Zac Guildford (Hawke’s Bay), Harry Jones (Sydney Stars), Reece Robinson (NRL: Parramatta Eels)

Players out: Michael Alaalatoa (Crusaders), Sekope Kepu (Bordeaux), Mitchell Chapman (retired), Tala Gray (Toulouse), Pat McCutcheon (Australia Sevens), Jacques Potgieter (Sharks), Wycliff Palu (Toyota Verblitz), Auvasa Faleali’I (Nevers), Brendon McKibbin (London Irish), Jono Lance (Force), Adam Ashley-Cooper (Bordeaux), Peter Betham (Leicester), Taqele Naiyaravoro (Glasgow Warriors), Ben Volavola (Crusaders)

Notably different to other Australian teams in 2016; instead of all eyes being on the players coming and going, the Waratahs will be embracing the succession of Darryl Gibson from assistant to head coach. How he handles the new job following Michael Cheika’s departure will determine how the Tahs fare in 2016.

The Waratahs have been hit hard with the loss of Jacques Potgieter, Sekope Kepu and Wycliff Palu in the forward pack, while nearly every winger in the squad except for Rob Horne has left.

Gibson has added two NRC players, an NRL player, and a talented but troubled All Black to the backline stocks; how these players rejig his team will shape their season.

The touted changes of Israel Folau to the centres and Kurtley Beale back to fullback could be crucial in the Waratahs claiming their second title in three seasons.

Potential XV for opening game
1. Benn Robinson
2. Tatafu Polota-Nau
3. Angus Ta’avao
4. Will Skelton
5. Dean Mumm
6. David Dennis
7. Michael Hooper
8. Brad Wilkin
9. Nick Phipps
10. Bernard Foley
11. Rob Horne
12. Kurtley Beale
13. Andrew Kellaway
14. Zac Guildford
15. Israel Folau

I’ve taken particular interest in how the five Australian teams might fare, not just against each other, but in a reformatted competition with the Jaguares, Kings and Sunwolves all eagerly awaiting to join the Super Rugby rank.

The greatest shame is that none of the Australian teams will get to face the Jaguares just yet, unless they should face each other in the finals. This of course should not deter anyone from getting into the spirit of looking ahead to your team’s chances next year. Any comments on how you think your team shall do and what starting XV you’d pick are most welcome.

I know ’tis the season to be jolly, but it’s the rugby season that I await more eagerly. Happy holidays!

The Crowd Says:

2015-12-31T07:11:27+00:00

Zero Gain

Guest


The Wallabies won and deserved to and the ABs won the final and deserved to, end of story.

2015-12-31T07:09:53+00:00

Zero Gain

Guest


Ha, ha, my life is far too good for this to hurt me...

2015-12-31T00:43:43+00:00

Wozza

Guest


TaylorMan, I do try to be consistent but do admit it can be harder when your team's involved. At the end of the day, it's still just a game of rugby, even a world cup final and there are far bigger issues in the world to get upset about than a bad refereeing call. Australia did suffer from poor decisions in 2008, both times by Alan Lewis, one of which being a non-called forward pass which gave the ABs the match winning try in the Hong Kong (I think) test and the other against Wales where Lewis was very inconsistent in Wales favour in game they came out on top. I wasn't happy, particularly the ABs game but what can you do. It;s not worth dwelling on. I'm curious what the other game you refer too where Oz won due to due to bad refereeing decisions and can only think it was the QF v Sth Africa in 2011. It was an interesting game that one. It's true that if Lawrence wasn't the ref SA probably would have won but on the other hand, even with Lawrence's terrible performance, SA had ample opportunities to win (JDV's forward pass with the line wide open, Steyn's missed kicks) and couldn't take them and winning rugby matches is all about taking your chances so you've got the odd scenario where SA were hard done by but didn't really deserve to win either.

2015-12-31T00:26:16+00:00

Wozza

Guest


Clarke, I haven't waffled. I've said several times I consider you bias because you wont acknowledge my argument because you don't like the emotive language I use. Discounting an argument because you have an issue with the way it was stated is, in my view bias. You may disagree which is fine but if understanding what I've said is beyond your limited comprehension there's nothing I can do about that, and given the way you've carried on, I couldn't really care less about your opinion. Seriously, you're not a child. Man up, take it on the chin and put your view forward in whatever manner you choose. You can even insult me. I'm a big boy - I can take it but lets face it we're here to debate issues but if your fragile sensibilities can't handle a few emotive words, maybe you should find somewhere else to play where people aren't so mean.

2015-12-30T23:53:01+00:00

stillmissit

Roar Guru


Thanks Mitch, Lot's very useful information here. My prediction for Australian convention is: 1) Brumbies (Least # changes and Larkham improving) 2) Rebels (Most improved over the last 2 seasons and I expect much more this year) 3) Waratahs (due to coach changes and reshuffles slowing down the start of the season) 4) Force 5) Reds Rebels and Tahs could interchange depending on how the Tahs start.

2015-12-30T20:21:47+00:00

Taylorman

Guest


Yes it's a good point Cuw and it depends which matches you refer too to rate them. In the World Cup SA lost by two points, Where Oz were clearly behind at the bell. Does that make them second? But then SA lost to Japan? And at home to Argie. Oz are the only side to beat the ABs this year and in their only meeting beat SA. Based on the year overall... for me... Oz are in fact a clear second with SA then Argie further back, the NH sides a distance back from the four.

2015-12-30T05:27:49+00:00

cuw

Guest


" Then in the subsequent 48-72 hours when it emerged that Joubert was probably incorrect in the decision. " there was no "PROBABLY". he was wrong and admitted it himself. IMO he shud have done the same after that Scot v OZ match; would have saved his dignity rather than IRB saying it :)

2015-12-30T05:15:52+00:00

cuw

Guest


@ Taylorman "My point is, Cuw, whether unnecessarily or not, is merely pointing out the first view I mention above, where you are expressing his or her right not to hold that view. " my comment was based on the below comment : "The Wallabies were excellent this year and were easily the 2nd best team. Right up until the WC final they were in with a shot of being the best team in the world for 2015. As it was they were close to the best team." it was merely stating the glorious uncertainties of sport - in this case one decision that changed the outcome on the last minute (just like the penalty that won the super cup for waratahs) AND the fact that the powers that be took pains to admit it was a mistake. no one gets 100% accuracy during any game/sport BUT there may be one or two which have an influence on the final outcome. it is also similar to the missed penalty kick by Beale against Lions, whihc could have won OZ the match and saved Deans' job :) the comment that OZ are easily the 2nd best is inaccurate, simply becoz had that decision gone for Scotland they would be somewhere from 3-8. that was my point. it does not matter to me who won. the argument was directed at the assertion that OZ are the clear 2nd best, which is wrong.

AUTHOR

2015-12-29T12:58:20+00:00

Rugby Fixation

Roar Guru


You're very welcome, thanks for the appreciation. Stay posted for the breakdown of the other conferences coming out in the next few days

2015-12-29T11:45:33+00:00

gbrizzy

Guest


Nice work Mitch thanks

2015-12-29T09:44:37+00:00

Taylorman

Guest


Fair comment Wozza, understood and a fair point of view, though I would expect the reaction to be consistent should the shoe be on the other foot in the future. Australia, luckily, have not suffered a loss through bad refereeing in the World Cup and as a fan of one of the three sides that have...oddly involving Oz as the winner in two of them, it will be interesting should that happen, though for all our sakes, I hope it never does.

2015-12-29T07:35:29+00:00

ClarkeG

Roar Guru


To Wozza - Ok this has now gone past the silly stage. Whilst you have conceded on the second question it comes with a qualification of some reference to semantics. You have waffled around the first question again without directly answering it. Even at this point I might have debated the incidents to which you refer but then you again use emotive language – “we would have been robbed” – and furthermore you could not resist the crack at me in your last words and for those reasons I feel it not worth my while continuing our discussion. But you have acknowledged you are biased in this regard which is the question I raised at the beginning - exactly what you accused others of.

2015-12-29T06:04:46+00:00

Wozza

Guest


TM, if it was just the Scots I wouldn't have a problem but in my observations (you may disagree) it's not just the Scots and the non-Scots keep bringing it up to devalue Australia rather than because they feel so aggrieved. Surely as a kiwi you'd know devaluing Oz is a national pastime. With regards to your scenario, its not a good example because the win would have come down to McCaw's genius at reading the game rather than a reffing error so while I'd be peeved, I'd like to think I'd move on. With regards to reviewing past decisions, unless they were very close to the end and blatantly obvious what would be the point. As I said, a lot of Wallaby fans feel this decision is being used to diminish everything we've achieved and we're not gong to let that happen without pointing out that that wasn't the only bad decision. I genuinely feel for the Scots as this game probably meant more to them in the bigger picture, but for everyone else, you have to take the good with the bad even if it doesn't suit you.

2015-12-29T05:42:57+00:00

Wozza

Guest


Clarke, why does the way I frame my argument affect the validity of what I had to say? You wont acknowledge my argument because you didn't like the way I said it. That's my issue with you and if you look bias up in the dictionary, it might not be a classic example, but it's in the ball park and if you can't understand that I don't know what else to say. As for where you endlessly criticise Oz, you haven't in this thread but if you want to play semantics, its not something I directly accused you of but I do understand how you drew that conclusion so if it helps, put simply. Firstly, the charge of bias, you don't like the way I framed my argument so you wont acknowledge it is the reason I said that. Secondly, no you haven't endlessly ciriticised Oz As to why it would have been an injustice if Scotland had won, the same reason the Scots... feel so aggrieved. We would have been robbed 2 scoring opportunities in the last 5 minutes because of refereeing errors. Is that not an injustice, especially given for most of the match general opinion seems to be we were the better team. And, sure, I've displayed bias. You've constantly accused me of this and I've never denied it. As TM points out, in partisan sport, everyone has a bias except, it would seem, you

2015-12-29T05:41:28+00:00

taylorman

Roar Guru


Appreciate what you are saying but the fact is the Scots lost. Asking them and their supporters to look beyond tge last decision is as the victor probably asking a bit too much. Imagine this scenario in the world cup final. One minute to go and the ABs are a point up. Owens has made a couple of wayward decisions previously but oz are dominating the line and just need to get it to the left and they score. Mccaw comes from an obviously offside position on the refs blindside and causes Genia to knock it on. The Ws all see it and appeal to Owens, appeal for the TMO but Owens refuses, a try wasnt scored. ABs win the scrum and run it out after time, even though the Ws are still complaining. Now in the wash up, as an Oz fan how reasonable is it for you to be told 'Well look at the decision a couple of minutes ago' How likely are you going to want to review what happened before this last debacle and then front to discuss those decisions which at the time were not as relevant. What good do you think it will serve you as a fan? Yet here you are asking the Scots you do exactly that. My point is theyre not going to care and thats its unreasonable as the ultimate benefactor of the sum of all decisions to expect them too. Anyway, now we're effectively saying similar things. Lets hope these things dont repeat but someone seems to get the wrong end of the ref stick last few tourneys. Perhaps be thankful Oz have not lost a key match from poor reffing yet.

2015-12-29T05:07:01+00:00

Wozza

Guest


TM I agree that there are 2 points of view but I don't agree that every wrong decision is relevant. Far from it. If a certain decision had gone the other way, the whole complex of the game changes. The game is an entirely different entity so most of the time I don't consider wrong decisions to have a significant impact on the game. However, the closer the game gets to the end, the greater the impact wrong decisions have. All these wrong decisions happened after Scotland's last try less than five minutes from the end so at this point their impact becomes increasingly relevant. Had Australia scored from either of the 2 incorrect decisions, Scotland would have had 1 - 2 minutes to regain the lead. I consider this scenario highly unlikely and therefore the wrong decisions are very relevant. I guess my frustration arises from the fact that people who hold the pro Australia point of view do recognise that yes, their was a decision in Australia's favour in the last minute and because of that we won the game. On the other hand, people with the pro Scotland point of view don't even acknowledge Joubert's earlier errors and ever since have harped on that Australia shouldn't have won. The fact is, the errors were made, look at the footage and judge for yourself, they denied Australia 2 potential scoring opportunities and as they happened very late in the game after Scotland scored their last points, the chances of Scotland regaining the lead were, in my opinion, highly unlikely. I think the irritation I and a lot of other Australians have, is that in a year when our team made great strides, beating the ABs, winning the RC and being right in the hunt for the RWC crown until late in the game when the class of a very good NZ team stood out, our achievements are continually dismissed because of this decision which, as a holder of the pro Australian point of view I think is unfair, particularly as there is no acknowledgment of the earlier mistakes which, in my view, more than balance out the latter. As you say, we all have a bias, but if we're to discuss this incident rationally, lets put all the facts on the table, not conveniently exclude the one that don't suit us.

2015-12-29T02:49:46+00:00

ClarkeG

Roar Guru


Well no Wozza your comments are very much the issue. Again you fail to answer what you accuse me of. The questions were: - What have I written that could be deemed to be biased? Show me where I have endlessly criticised Aust. I can reasonably debate those incidents to which you refer but there is no point until you answer those two questions I put to you. Your comment elsewhere that “had they (Aust) lost it would have been a far greater injustice than the Scots feel they suffered “pretty much confirms you are biased in this regard. Why on earth would it have been deemed an injustice to any degree if Scotland had in fact won the match?

2015-12-29T01:45:53+00:00

Taylorman

Guest


My point being...that there are two perfectly valid views, and you decide whether you discuss either or not, but denying the other the right to hold that view just to 'feel better', or whatever reason, is probably unnecessary. I think that's one thing that should have been learned from both scenarios.

2015-12-29T01:38:56+00:00

Taylorman

Guest


Another example of this was the just as commonly discussed SXV final in 2014. Common consensus after the match was that McCaw finally 'got his dues' with the penalty awarded against him the last seconds. Then in the subsequent 48-72 hours when it emerged that Joubert was probably incorrect in the decision, ONLY then did people start looking at earlier decisions, such as the apparent missing of the try scorer in touch. People go 'looking' to justifying the situation only when it was required. No need to look beyond McCaws faux pas...I mean why would you need to. But the story changes when the final decision that directly impacts the final result. There's a 'need' to feel better about the win when the original reason has changed. Funny that.

2015-12-29T01:19:27+00:00

Taylorman

Guest


There are two views Wozza. One is that the decision that gave the penalty altered the outcome of the game, anything happening before it irrelevant in terms of the final result because unlike the last one, they didn't actually contribute to the final score as directly. The fact that they 'might have' in terms of this view Wozza, is irrelevant. The other view is the one the view that you hold. I.e. That all decisions made during the game are relevant in terms of the result. What we find is that one generally follows the view that supports the side they preferred to win. On the ROAR The common oz view is the latter view is more correct, where on NH sites I have seen, or fans that preferred Scotland to win, believe the former is the case. The point is, both views have merit, and if you are unable to accept that that is the case, then you are probably applying bias. I preferred Scotland to win because it would have meant a likely more game for NZ, should we face them in the final. So I also apply bias. But I also recognise that fact. So if you can't recognise that fact then you make the mistake of appearing to blame others of bias, where you are actually portraying that exact behaviour. My point is, Cuw, whether unnecessarily or not, is merely pointing out the first view I mention above, where you are expressing his or her right not to hold that view. That's the difference in the understanding of 'bias' here.

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