With Minnesota’s victory over the Green Bay Packers in Sunday Night Football, the 12 teams to qualify for the NFL playoffs and their seeds have been finalised.
Denver will unexpectedly hold the number one seed in the AFC. Carolina will unsurprisingly hold the number one seed in the NFC.
In previous years the two teams holding the number one seeds in their respective conference have appeared near certainties for the Super Bowl. This year, however, it appears as though at least ten teams can go all the way.
The two that we can scratch off the list of Super Bowl contenders are Washington and Houston.
For the ten contenders a combination of health, luck and rising to the occasion will determine who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy and who bows out in straight sets. Thus, the alarm bells are ringing for the Bengals who will not see Andy Dalton return to play until the divisional round at the earliest, if they get there.
The team the Bengals will face in the wild card is their fierce divisional rival the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers defeated Cincinnati just four games ago and it was in this match that Dalton broke his thumb. AJ McCarron has certainly improved since he was thrown into the game midway through the second quarter but this will still be a major challenge for the Alabama graduate.
The Steelers are not without their own injury troubles, although they have adapted quite well throughout the season. Whenever they make the playoffs, the Steelers are a dangerous team to face. Despite the fact that they needed the Jets to lose on the final day of the season just to qualify, the Steelers are a threat once again.
The team possesses the most efficient offence in the NFL and if Ben Roethlisberger catches fire, they will be very difficult to stop. Pittsburgh does possess a league-average defence, but McCarron will struggle to match Roethlisberger if his defence can’t give him some help.
The other wildcard team in the AFC is the Kansas City Chiefs, a team that started the season 1-5 before winning ten straight games to close out the season. The Chiefs are potentially the most dangerous team in the AFC. They should have no troubles whatsoever with the Texans and a trip to Denver or Foxborough in week two will make for a mouthwatering clash.
Speaking of Denver and New England, both teams will be able to put their feet up and enjoy a week of rest and recuperation after earning a first-round bye. Despite this, neither team will spend the team worry free. Denver has a quarterback situation to figure out, yet again. New England has a massive injury toll, including concerns around Tom Brady’s ankle.
For Denver it would make very little sense to go back to Brock Osweiler after benching him for a now healthy Peyton Manning. The problem for Denver is that so far this season Manning has only played well after taking at least a week off. That means he should be OK for the divisional round, but if his team wins that match, he will likely struggle in the conference championship match. I would suggest sharing the role between both quarterbacks but history suggests that sharing the starting job never ends well.
Thankfully for Broncos fans, the team possesses the best defence in the NFL. The much-vaunted linebacker corps, led by Von Miller, puts fear in the mind of every opposing quarterback who faces Denver.
The secondary is able to defend most receivers in the league one on one; the few exceptions include the likes of Calvin Johnson and Rob Gronkowski. If Manning or Osweiler are able to protect the football and convert red zones drives into touchdowns, not field goals, Denver has the potential to win the Super Bowl. If we see early season Manning during the Playoffs, the Broncos will have no chance of winning, no matter how good the defence plays.
This Broncos team is desperate to finally win a Super Bowl but a lot has to go right if they are going to do so.
Like the Broncos, the Patriots have been an intriguing team to follow this season. They started the season on fire, dropped two in a row in the middle, recovered and looked like near certainties for the number one seed as Denver faltered before losing their final two games of the season.
The Patriots troubles started when their team started to look more like a hospital ward than a football side. Injuries and mystery illnesses crippled both sides of the ball. Tom Brady lost his favourite targets, star linebackers missed time.
The offensive line was crippled by injuries and the secondary was not able to escape the injury bug. Finally, and most concerning, Brady himself went down injured against the Dolphins. He has two weeks to recover and won’t miss the Patriots first playoff match, but it is still a worry the Patriots would rather do without.
At risk of sounding like a broken record, the Patriots have the talent to win the Super Bowl and defend their title. Despite losing the number one seed and their shocking injury run, the Patriots are favourites to win the AFC. This is rightfully so, they are by far the best team in the conference and if their defence can do their job; Brady and the offence will do theirs.
Over in the NFC, the Vikings may have actually made a big mistake by defeating the Packers in the final game of the regular season. Their reward for winning the NFC North is a clash with the hottest team in football, the two-time defending NFC Champions and most likely the number one team in DVOA for the fourth straight year.
Yes, the Seattle Seahawks.
The Seahawks are led by quarterback Russell Wilson, who set a single-season Seattle record for both passing yards and touchdown throws in season 2015. The team has won eight of their last ten matches and Wilson has looked near unstoppable during that time. They had a slip up last weekend against St. Louis but the Vikings should still be very concerned, especially after what Seattle did to the Cardinals this weekend.
Speaking of the Cardinals, Arizona will spend the week nursing their bruises after a 36-6 home drubbing at the hands of the aforementioned Seahawks. Despite this, the Cardinals will likely finish in second in DVOA and are a very dangerous team. Arizona will not face Seattle until the Conference Championship game, if they both get there, and will benefit from better match-ups with the other NFC playoff teams. They have beaten both the Packers and Vikings over the past month, including a convincing 38-8 victory over Green Bay.
The Packers are a curious team. They looked unstoppable over the first six weeks of the season until Peyton Manning turned back the clock and torched the Packers defence for 340 yards in week eight. From that point on, the Packers have struggled. Including that Denver loss, the Packers finished the season 4-6, with losses against the playoff-bound Panthers, Cardinals and Vikings. Aaron Rodgers is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and you can never count out his team but based on current form, the Packers are not headed to Santa Clara.
Finally we come to the MVP-elect Cam Newton and his 15-1 Carolina Panthers. Newton is brash, he is confident and he does things his way. He doesn’t care what people think of him and he has delivered the performances on the field to back up all his antics.
While it hasn’t been Newton’s most successful year in terms of passing yards, he has thrown more touchdowns than ever before, fewer intercepts, been sacked fewer times and most importantly he has finally led a winning team. The Panthers have the defence to back up Newton’s talent and Luke Kuechly is a viable defensive player of the year contender.
Kuechly may have recorded just one sack this year but he is most dangerous when he is dropping back into coverage. He recorded four intercepts, forced two fumbles and defended ten passes, despite missing three games with a concussion.
The Panthers will be incredibly tough to beat, but Seattle should have beaten them in week six and it is highly likely that these two teams will face again in two weeks’ time. Additionally, both Seattle and Arizona are ranked higher than the Panthers in DVOA, this means that according to Football Outsiders if either of these two teams played Carolina, more often than not the Panthers would lose.
Should the Seahawks overcome Minnesota the divisional round match-up between Carolina and Seattle will likely determine the winner of this conference. It is bound to be an absolute cracker.
Nate
Guest
I dunno man, the Giants won with some pretty poor offence. Honestly not sure what the rankings were but they could not have been great.
pete bloor
Guest
though less rarely than bad offense :) Also the Steelers defense isn't that bad most superbowl winners in the last 9 years had worse... Problem for Denver is no team's won with their quality of offence.
Nate
Guest
And yes, sorry for dragging out an old cliche, but bad defences rarely win championships is probably more accurate than defence wins championships.
Nate
Guest
I'm not saying Denver is a lock, I don't think anyone is in the AFC. However, I think it's ridiculous to make statements about New England being the team to beat considering the finish they had. As for injuries, I'm sick of hearing about how banged up New England is while nobody acknowledges the same with Denver. This year at various times we have been without Ware, Stewart, Ward, Marshall, Travathan, Mathis, Manning and more, many of those for multiple games. Yet we still held our #1 defensive ranking despite the massive injury toll. I do acknowledge there have been some key injuries to NE, but Denver has consistently lost players all year too, especially on the defensive side of the ball.
no one in particular
Roar Guru
"Since the 89 season (when dvoa goes back to) 11 super bowl winners haven’t had top 10 defenses compared to only 7 without top 10 offences and slightly above half had better offensive ranks than defensive. " A great point that gets lost in lazy narrative. It's good defences that win SB's, but good offenses without a bad defence. The status of Ware will go a long way in deciding who wins the AFC
pete bloor
Guest
I'm a Denver fan Nate but we can't say the Pats stumbled to the finish line and not acknowledge that we lost 4 of our last 9 and only have one win by more than 1 possession. Our adjusted DVOA is horrible which meshes with the eye test that’s seen a lot of lucky escapes. Maybe lady luck continues but this is a 10-6 quality team masquerading as 1 seed. The "we all know defense wins championships"? If this is true then it’s proof that we should have no faith in our fellow man’s ability to think. Since the 89 season (when dvoa goes back to) 11 super bowl winners haven’t had top 10 defenses compared to only 7 without top 10 offences and slightly above half had better offensive ranks than defensive. Three actually had neither (Baltimore in the blackout, The helmet catch and the patriots before everyone hated them) The Steelers defensive DVOA is a marginal strength so their defense isn’t that horrible hell it’s ranked higher than 6 of the last 9 superbowl winners. Generally being good on an overall basis is what wins championships (20 of the 26 champs were top 5 combined) but lets not let that get in the way of throwing out a catchy phrase regardless of how accurate it is.
Steve
Guest
Not sure if you watched the Patriots at Denver game from earlier this season, but that can hardly be used as a yard stick for a possible AFC Championship game...the weather was crazy, Pats had a very banged up roster (likely to be much improved by the AFC Championship game should they make it that far) and Osweiler had the game of his life. I still think the Patriots are the favourites on the AFC side...just. The biggest problem from here will be managing their O line (which was shredded against Miami). KC are the smokey for mine on the AFC side. NFL looking much stronger though - right now the Panthers, Cards and Seahawks look more likely than anyone on the AFC side for mine.
Jack
Guest
Just remember, 15-1.
Nate
Guest
Really? The broken Patriots, who Denver have already beaten this year, and who have been stumbling toward the finish line, and have to go through Denver, are the team to beat? Denver is the #1 seed and deserves a little respect. If I had to pick a smokey from the AFC it would be the Steelers, but their defence is terrible and we all know defence wins championships.