In the first of a series of team previews, the 18th placed team was broken down based on a number of key categories, and today we move up the ladder one rung and look at who will come 17th.
Last year’s wooden spooners, Carlton, come back in 2016 with a new coach, a number of new players and new hope.
The fix will not be quick, though, as this is arguably the least talented list in the AFL. That will not be the case in three to five years’ time, but as far as the present goes the Blues are definitely not coming anywhere but bottom two.
Best 22
B: Jacob Weitering, Michael Jamison, Lachie Plowman
HB: Sam Docherty, Sam Rowe, Zac Tuohy
C: Kade Simpson, Marc Murphy, Ed Curnow
HF: Sam Kerridge, Andrejs Everitt, Matthew Wright
F: Dale Thomas, Levi Casboult, Andrew Walker
R: Matthew Kreuzer, Patrick Cripps, Bryce Gibbs
I: Nick Graham, Blaine Boekhorst, Dennis Armfield, Kristian Jaksch
Forward line
Levi Casboult showed promise on occasions last season but his kicking is a crippling weakness that must be rectified in order for him to be an effective forward. Andrejs Everitt was a serviceable forward last season and will be challenged to play in a key position, something that may well be beyond him.
The small forwards are near-on non-existent and draftee Charlie Curnow and second-year player Clem Smith will be given every opportunity early should the side not generate enough scoring power.
Dale Thomas owes the club a huge amount and will play the high half-forward role while former Crows in Matthew Wright and Sam Kerridge will provide honest service and compete strongly.
2015’s worst forward line looks highly unlikely to improve on that rating in 2016.
Rating: 2/10
Backline
Number one draft pick Jacob Weitering seems destined to be a star and should be thrown into the deep end immediately. This young gun comes with huge wraps and on exposed underage form should slot nicely into the backline and play a key role.
Michael Jamison and Sam Rowe will do a job but offer very little to the Blues’ future plans so will be under pressure most weeks. Zac Tuohy had a breakout year in 2015 playing as a running defender, and at 26 should be entering his prime and pushing into the midfield to replace one of the current crop.
Sam Docherty, Kristian Jaksch and Lachie Plowman will feature heavily in Carlton’s future plans and will all be given ample opportunity to make these positions their own. Jaksch, in particular, has massive wraps on him and could be a jewel in the crown of this proud club.
Rating: 3/10
Midfield
Patrick Cripps. If you don’t know that name, you are not an AFL fan or are just ignorant. If it weren’t for Jesse Hogan, Cripps would have been a runaway winner of the NAB Rising Star and with good reason.
At 20 years, Cripps ranked in the top 15 in the AFL in contested possessions, clearances and handballs per game and did it all in a putrid team. We could see something truly spectacular from the young man from east Fremantle in 2016.
Marc Murphy and Bryce Gibbs are two of the more polarising players of this generation, wonderfully skilled and talented but two players who seem intent on cruising through underwhelming careers as opposed to doing everything in their powers to strive to be elite players. Having played almost 400 combined games, it is time for them to both deliver on their potential (in fairness, both need some luck with injury) and help Cripps do some of the heavy lifting.
Matthew Kreuzer will be the ruckman by default but will do well to keep journeyman Cameron Wood out of the side; no player in the league has promised so much and yet delivered so little, so let’s hope for Carlton fans that Kreuzer moves beyond being mediocre.
Riding shotgun alongside Cripps in the Blues engine room for the next decade will be Nick Graham, and if his debut season is anything to go by he will become a permanent figure in this midfield in 2016. The Blues had better hope he does, as otherwise they turn to the likes of Ed Curnow to play a key role.
Rating: 4/10
Fixture
Carlton might have plenty of reasons and excuses for being terrible in 2016, but the fixture is not one of them. This may be the best fixture in the AFL. They play just one top eight team from 2015 twice (Sydney Swans) and will get favourable match-ups with St Kilda, Essendon and Brisbane twice.
Not once do the Blues have consecutive six-day breaks and while they play four top eight teams in the first five weeks, that is countered by seven straight games in Victoria mid-season and a final month that figures games against four of the bottom six teams from 2015.
Rating: 8/10
Coaching
In his time at Hawthorn, new Carlton coach Brendan Bolton was on the losing side just 29 times in five years. He will likely reach half that total by August this year, but Carlton have given him the remit to rebuild this side and he will have the patience and support of one of the AFL’s strongest clubs.
Bolton has already discussed culture and leadership and the need to overhaul both at Carlton, and he will quickly learn that as a coach you are only as good as the cattle you have available. Bolton will be best judged in three to five years but comes into the job with his eyes wide open and the freedom to put his stamp on this list.
Rating: 4/10
Summary
In Cripps, Graham, Weitering, Plowman, Jaksch and Doherty the Blues faithful will expect big things in 2019, not 2016. Just as well because even if these youngsters are better than advertised, a long rebuild is on the cards and the veterans and depth are just not there in what is currently the weakest list in the competition.
Predicted finish: 17th
Dan Sweet
Guest
Steve, I agree with most of your commentary. But in my view you are one tall forward and a ruckman short. Charlie Curnow is a tall not small forward (same height and 5kg short of Roughead and Tex Walker at the time of the draft). He is the player I am most excited about and hope he is the real deal. Agree with you and Macca that Graham is a quality young mid and will put some games together with a bit of luck. Cripps is almost untaggable due to brute strength and height but needs to improve disposal (fussy I know) to go to the elite level. Carlton only need one of the GWS 'rejects' to succeed for that to be a good deal. Interesting to see whether Gorrange, Phillips or Wood will be the back up ruck (I think Gorrange). Kreuzer is elite when up and going but agree he can only be rated average when you look at stats. Armfield wont play and I think Liam Sumner takes his spot. McKay, Cuningham and GlassMcCasker need time but I think Weitering and Curnow can make an impact. Don't write Liam Jones off just yet. But overall agree Carlton will be bottom two with hopefully another aggressive trade/draft period at the post season. The most interesting thing will be whether Murphy is captain again. Bolton has the opportunity to put his stamp on a club that's been dominated by 'down hill skiers' for way too long. Murphy, Gibbs and Thomas can all put up or pack up as far as I am concerned. Bound By Blue.......Dan
The Original Buzz
Guest
Looks like Essendon might just get the wooden spoon now. It is going to be a real battle for both ends of the ladder this year. Thanks again Essendon, for giving the Blues another lift up the ladder.
Paul D
Roar Guru
Yeah, I don’t think Carlton needed to throw many games or do much differently in the early 2000’s to finish where they did. Was a pretty ordinary side and they would have lost most games regardless.
Col from Brissie
Guest
What 15 metres is saying and andyl is that everyone says that Carlton tanked to get Murphy, Gibbs and Kreuzer but forget just how poor a team Carlton were after the salary cap penalties. I don't think he has accused Hawthorn of tanking but responding to Sportsfans comment about Murphy, Gibbs and Kreuzer being the original "tank kids". Whilst there will always be conjecture about the so called Kreuzer cup game like you I would like a list of the games that Carlton tanked in to acquire Murphy, Gibbs and Kreuzer when it was widely acknowledged that they were a bottom team.
andyl12
Guest
That's right 15 metres. Unless you can tell me which games Hawthorn tanked in, and why we went to the "trouble" of avoiding the wooden spoon when we were apparently tanking, your argument sinks in slop.
Paul W
Guest
Could create history by finishing 19th.
15 metres is needed for a mark
Guest
Carlton "tanking" for Gibbs &, Murphy? Do a bit of research next time you throw out such baseless clichés. Have you even looked at Carlton's 2005 squad? You tell me the most valuable player out of Barnaby French and Chris Bryan and you think that squad is capable of tanking? Have you realised that Carlton was banned from trading into higher draft picks in 2004? Do you have any idea of the scale of the penalties to a bottom team of 2002? And then you incorrectly state that tanking doesn't work...ok so how come Hawthorn has won all these premierships then? You are telling me they could have done without the priority pick of Roughead then? and Xavier Ellis (2008 premiership player and important in the 1st quarter of the G/final). Cliches and naivety can only get you so far until someone will pull you up on it. So Hawthorn didn't tank for priority picks but Carlton did..ok then tooth fairies rule.
Nicholas Mirarchi
Roar Guru
Dale Thomas needs to produce some form, I wouldn't be surprised if there is a hidden gem with the GWS recruits similar to how Anthony Miles turned out with Richmond.
Col from Brissie
Guest
Cripps is not going to be an easy tag. At 194 cm he would have most run with players covered for height and has come back in better condition than last year. If clubs want to tag Cripps and give Murphy and Gibbs a free run then I can see Murphy and Gibbs having very good seasons. Murphy averages 24 disposals a game and Gibbs 22 and I would say Murphy has been tagged for most of that time. I also cannot see how Dylan Buckley is not in the best 22.
Macca
Guest
Yep, in 4 years the blues best players will be Cripps24, Weitering 22, Mckay 22 and probably the number 1 or 2 pick the get this year. However they will still have at least Gibbs, Casboult and Kreuzer (possibly Murphy) as the mature players and th n the likes of Jaksch,Plowmans, Grham, Buckley, Docherty, Cunnigham etc in their prime plus another couple of younger first round draft picks. The blues list in 4 years will be in great shape for a premiership which is unlike the bombers now and in 4 years as right now their best players are all over 30 and they will lose as much talent out the door as they will bring in over the next 4 years
Macca
Guest
PaulD, but that isn't going to happen. And Cripps will be a third year player who now stands 194cm and returned to preseason in elite condition and hasn't put a foot wrong since if he does draw the tag it will be because of his exceptional ability and not Murphys failing, and it will allow Murphy to dominate games. If Gibbs can actually find his 2014 form again the blues midfield will pose some headaches
Paul D
Roar Guru
I tell you though, if someone like Cripps draws the main tag each week, a second year player, Gibbs and Murphy should hang their heads in shame.
Macca
Guest
PaulD, I was simply pointing exactly what you did, Murphy is still the best mid and if he isn't tagged the blues will have a much bigger chance of winning
Paul D
Roar Guru
Marc Murphy, clearly. Not that many teams will have difficulties beating Carlton, but why give their captain a chance to inspire the troops? Sit on him and squash his influence in the game, it's a ruthless business. Murphy remains their best midfielder too, I think he gets a lot of unfair stick. Yes, he's not a superstar, but he works hard in a badly beaten side and certainly doesn't shirk it. Gibbs is a passenger.
Steven Paice
Roar Guru
Paul, do you think opponents will tag Cripps, Gibbs or Murphy in 2016?
Slane
Guest
So the good news is that Carlton's best players won't be their best players in 4 years? Things are really looking up for the Blues now!
Paul D
Roar Guru
So you would like to see two number one draft picks running around without a hard tag because the opposition doesn't feel they're worth wasting time tagging on, because they're not enough threat? I don't see that as a positive at all. The moment those two produce anything decent they'll get a tag back on them anyway, opposition teams know Murphy and Gibbs struggle to shrug it off.
OJP
Guest
The midfield and coach ratings were a bit harsh otherwise The Blues rebuild will take at least 3 years. All I would like to see is the Blues get a whole season out of Daisy and Kreuzer! If not move them on! 15th doesn’t look unreasonable………..(Sadly)
Macca
Guest
Sports Fan, I agree the blues will finish bottom 4 and more than likely bottom 2 but they will go a hell of a lot better if Murphy and Gibbs go I untangged. If those to are allowed to run free Murphy will have a yea better than his 2011 all Australian and Gibbs will get back to his 2014 best which will go a long way towards the blues winning games
SportsFanGC
Roar Guru
Love the optimism Macca but there would be few, if any sides, that will be worried about the Blues next year. Ultimately getting game time into the kids and the new recruits gelling is what 2016 will be about and if another wooden spoon comes about then so be it. It just means another crack in the draft and trade periods.