If cricket is the national sport at this time of year, then selecting the Australian cricket team must run a very close second.
As sure as day follows night, any discussion or debate on selection options will at some point include a new team being named. I fully expect to happen again today.
On Monday, the national selection panel named the one-day squad for the three matches in New Zealand, kicking off the latest round.
Nathan Lyon’s white-ball development is again on hold, in favour of the very promising Adam Zampa, while Usman Khawaja has once more been unable to force his way into the squad, which averaged more than 53 runs per wicket across the five games against India.
Over the weekend, during the final ODI in Sydney, and the Big Bash League Final in Melbourne, I got to thinking about just how tough it’s going to be to make the Australian squad for the ICC World Twenty20 in India, to be held in March and April.
Simply put, there’s going to be some very unlucky Australian batsmen.
The NSP named a 17-man squad for the three T20Is against India, starting tonight in Adelaide. The series heads to Melbourne on Friday, and concludes in Sydney on Sunday.
Joining skipper Aaron Finch – and I’ll admit surprise that he’s held onto the T20 captaincy – on the batting front are Travis Head, Chris Lynn, Shaun Marsh, Glenn Maxwell, Steven Smith, David Warner and Shane Watson. That’s eight genuine batting options even without wicketkeeper Matthew Wade, and bowling allrounder James Faulkner.
For the WT20, squads will be restricted to 15. So two more players – I’d presume one batsman and one bowler – have to drop out of this initial squad. So not only are players already unlucky to miss out, but more will have to be dropped.
Initially, the two to make way in the current 17 will be Smith and Warner; at the time the T20 squad was named, it was announced “Steve Smith and David Warner will only feature in the first Twenty20… as they both prepare for the first ODI of the Tour of New Zealand that takes place in Auckland on 3 February.”
Furthermore, the NSP also told us that players currently outside the current T20 squad are still in the hunt to make the WT20 cut.
In naming the Twenty20 squad, national selector Rod Marsh explained, “sadly we could not find places for George Bailey and Mitchell Marsh in the Twenty20 international squad but for both of them, and for others who have missed out on places in that line-up, the door is certainly not closed for selection for the ICC World Twenty20.
“We know what both those players are capable of, and both have significant experience of playing Twenty20 cricket in India where the ICC World Twenty20 takes place, but we want them to continue to press their cases for inclusion while we take this opportunity to look at other contenders,” Marsh said.
Zampa was named in the ODI squad for New Zealand because it will “give us a chance to have a good look at [him] ahead of the ICC World T20.”
Khawaja was, along with left-arm quick Joel Paris at the time, advised by the NSP after the first three ODIs against India to “go back to [their BBL] clubs and demand we select them again through outstanding performances.”
Khawaja has certainly done that. Even if we ignore the sheer stupidity of commentary during the BBL Final on Sunday night, where he was described among other things as “arguably the best batsman in world cricket”, Khawaja can’t have done much more.
But from a selection point of view, 11 – or more – batting options simply won’t go into seven.
Mitchell Marsh will be the first casualty. His hundred in Sydney was well made, and exactly the sort of innings we’ve wanted to see from him all summer, but as an allrounder he doesn’t bring as much to the team as Maxwell or Faulkner. So now we’re down to ten.
At the other end of the scale, Smith, Warner, and Maxwell will all definitely go. So will Finch, I’d presume. Though I still question whether he’s a better captain than Smith, Finch is currently the No.1 ranked T20 batsman in the world, more than 200 points clear of Warner, the next best Australian.
So that leaves six batsmen competing for the final three spots.
Watson is ranked inside the top 20 T20 batsmen, inside the top 50 bowlers, and is third on the allrounder standings. All that, along with his vast IPL experience, will almost certainly see him picked for his international swansong.
So it’s now five into two: Shaun Marsh, Head, Lynn, Bailey, and Khawaja.
And from here I have only questions.
Is Marsh’s form this summer so commanding that his excellent IPL record can get him over the line?
Are Head’s gentle off-breaks with a remarkable habit of getting wickets just an exclamation mark on top of his obvious batting talent and potential?
Is Lynn likely to be anywhere near as destructive in India when the ball isn’t coming on as well as it does at home?
Could Bailey’s lower-order experience, and his ability to manage the situation late in the innings, be invaluable?
And is Khawaja in such supreme form that you can’t ignore him any longer?
If like me you can answer ‘yes’ to all of those questions, then you’re getting the point. Compelling cases can be made to include any batsman, but that’s the easy bit.
Working out who misses the WT20 cut is where the selectors will earn their money.
Bovs
Guest
Ha ok poor example but the principle stands... I was going to use Head as the example but I think he genuinely deserves to be there anyway. Then I was going to use Patterson but then it would be another typical NSWman jumping the queue. Agar would've been a better example than Silk except he doesn't directly compare with Klinger because he's an allrounder.
Chris Vincent
Roar Pro
They are not 'very good' numbers. They are middling at best. And he doesn't tend to go at a high SR either. Have you looked at IPL numbers lately? Warner went berserk in the last tournament - 560 runs, 43 average, at 156 SR. But let's not let actual numbers get in the way of broad assertions.
Don Freo
Guest
They are very good numbers for T20. If every top 6 batsman averaged 30 or more, their team wins every game. Try again.
Chris Vincent
Roar Pro
Good squad, but I'd have Watson over Mitch Marsh
Chris Vincent
Roar Pro
Don, honestly your Shaun Marsh obsession is going to have to be backed up by stats at some point. Shaun was once the IPL 'king' - perhaps - but he hasn't averaged over 40 in that comp since 2011. His last four IPL season averages read 20 (2015), 35 (2014), 37 (2013) and 30 (2012). In that time, he's scored six 50's from 27 starts. David Warner, meanwhile, has averaged 43, 48, 31 and 36 in that time in the IPL with a vastly superior strike rate, with 18 50's and a century. Shaun has also failed in T20 internationals - averaging only 18. Aaron Finch, although with an inferior IPL record, has absolutely nailed his T20 internationals, averaging 40+ at 150+ SR.
IndianCricketFan
Guest
Thank you Brett! Finally someone is telling it like it is! The Australian cricket team has an embarrassment of riches and someone or the other is going to miss out. As for giving Khawaja his due, I think no one is denying his form but calling him that best batsman in the world, that's just an opinion and not a fact! This might be a bitter pill to swallow for some but it is the hard truth! Cheers Brett!
Don Freo
Guest
Handscomb doesn't get enough runs despite always looking good and he is actually worse than Wade with the gloves. Handscomb should only be spoken of as a batting prospect and he is a fair way down the list in that conversation. Those in conversation as the keeper should be Nevill and Whiteman...maybe Paine (3 proper keepers). Bancroft should not compromise his batting. Ludes and Dunk would do ok but Ludes is no better as a keeper and not as good a bat and Dunk is not any better as a batsman and nit in the same league as a keeper. NCN is the bowler we need to get fit.. and Starc, obviously. Paris is better value than The Dorffman.
Dan ced
Guest
Do you think Ludemans BBL strike rotation and runs would be looked upon favourably against Handscomb poor batting in BBL,and Ludeman being a better keeper? I also think Klinger could slot perfectly into George Baileys role in your squad. I also prefer Zampa over Boyce. I think they will take Tait but not play him much. I totally agree that Finch, Wade, and Faulkner (in current form) could be liabilities. Will Dorff be fit enough? Would love to see him in place of Laughlin (who is similar to Tye)
Dan ced
Guest
Don't feed the trolls Brett :) good article. If they would drop Finc, Khawaja would be first in, but they won't drop an incumbent that's still in decent form, only a Fringe player like S.Marsh. I want Ludeman, Klinger and Zampa in the team.. But they don't have much Indian experience. Oh well. I wouldn't cry if S.Marsh goes, he is in good form..but Wade is a moldy muffin right now. Horrid in all parts of his game. Why can't they seeeeeeee
Don Freo
Guest
In this case, you'd take Klinger because Silk is not up to it and hasn't been for a while. I'd take Head or Patterson or Agar...just not Silk.
Bovs
Guest
In football, where most tournaments allow for a 23-man squad (for an 11-a-side game as with cricket) it's very common for nations to carry two or three "young guns" who are there as much to give them experience for future World Cups where they're likely to be the centre of attention as they are to actually feature in the tournament itself. We're not talking about taking Under-19 players here. We're more talking if say for cricket there was an 23 man squad and you get to picking your tenth or eleventh batsman... do you take Klinger because he is the tenth best batsman or do you take Jordan Silk because even though he might be further down the order of ability, he's far more likely to be playing in a World Cup in four years time? In a 15-man squad where everyone is likely to be used, you probably lean towards the one most likely to contribute here and now. With a bigger squad it's far less clear-cut.
ajaY
Guest
And how about funch,watson,head?
matth
Guest
Hopefully Tye will get a run in one of the next two games. Re Finch, he is a little unfairly done by here. His average and strike rate are both better than Warners, average by a fair way. He has the second highest average for T20 internationals (min 500 runs) behind Kholi. And he was the only one to stick around the other night.
matth
Guest
Well the only IPL form I noted was S Marsh over a long period. He is also a proven international class batsman (in the short forms). IPL may be useful here simply because the tournament is in India and the ability to play spin on those wickets will be crucial.
ChrisB
Guest
Now that is a good squad. Only question mark would be over Tait, but as a strike weapon, I suppose if he comes off......
ChrisB
Guest
We have still not learnt to correctly pick teams for T20 internationals. There's still too many big hitters picked and too many bits and piece players. The whole balance just seems wrong. I'm sorry to join the throng but Khawaja is a must for the T20 World Cup. You just can;t ignore his form in all formats this season. I think Lynn and Head (especially the former) will make good international players, but maybe keep them till after the tournament. I certainly wouldn't take both - but I would take both Khawaja and Bailey. The other big issues for mine are: The openers - Warner and Finch are too similar in all but ability, where Warner of course wins by a country mile. Finch should be a borderline selection, not the bl**dy captain The keeper - really anyone but Wade at this time would be an improvement. If they are determined to pick a batsman who can backstop, pick Handscomb or Bancroft who are better in both departments. The likes of Darren Berry must shake their head at how this bloke got to play as many tests as he did/has Picking the right bowlers - I know we've got a massive injury list, and are possibly resting and rotating, but it's hard to be convinced by any of those who played last night. Faulkner wasn't all that crash hot in the BBL really. Quite overrated for mine. And if you're going to experiment, why do it with Tait? Surely you'd try Tye or someone like that?
ChrisB
Guest
For an international tournament such as a world cup you shouldn't ever be taking anyone "for experience".
ChrisB
Guest
Surely making the sensible assumption that BBL form will not carry over to international games should also apply to IPL form?
Brett McKay
Expert
yeah, really good points Dingo. As The Runt mentioned above, the ability to turn over the strike in the middle overs is going as crucial in India as being bale to cope with the ball not coming on, and I think a few guys last night proved just how much they struggle in those situations. For the last two games now, I can see India playing very spin-heavy attacks, maybe even three in Sydney. And why wouldn't they! On your side, I still have a feeling Finch will go, almost in spite of his IPL record. Which then still probably means Bailey, Khawaja, and Shaun Marsh are fighting out for the last two spots. Watson can get bogged down by spin too, but I think he proved his worth with the ball well and truly last night. And I'm not sure about Tait. I don't know that he can have anything like the impact in India they think he can..
Brett McKay
Expert
It was pretty obvious, wasn't it Runt. Once Smith went, there was no ability to milk the ones and twos off the spinners, and as a result, everyone went down swinging. Maxwell will hopefully help that situation, if he's fit enough for Friday, but it does certainly boost the cases of guys like Bailey and Khawaja, who do have that degree of subtlety in their game..