2016 Six Nations Championship preview: Ireland

Ireland have had a favourable fixture list in the Six Nations Championship for the last two years, with the weakest team – Scotland in 2014 and Italy in 2015 – up first, affording them every chance to build momentum.

This year, they play Wales in the Aviva Stadium first, which will be far from an easy task. The Welsh have had little in the way of success in this tournament in the last two years and their coach needs to win the Championship to guarantee that he gets the Lions job in 2017.

A well-taken try by Fourie Du Preez following some quick thinking on the part of Duane Vermuelen was the only difference between Warren Gatland’s team and South Africa in the quarter-final of the World Cup and if Rhys Webb, Jonathan Davies and Leigh Halfpenny had not been injured, Wales would have had every chance of beating the Springboks.

Scotland too experienced their own heartbreak at the World Cup when a questionable refereeing decision from Craig Joubert saw them miss out on the semi-finals.

They are still dreadful when it comes to defensive organisation and first-up tackling but their attacking play has come on in leaps and bounds under Vern Cotter, with potent strike-runners all across their back line. They know how to hang in games when they should be dead and buried and for years they have frustrated Irish teams.

Both of these teams will be seething and the prospect of getting a win over a wounded Ireland team will be all the motivation they need.

Ireland must also travel to Paris and London, which will be more challenging than in previous years, considering that both France and England have new head coaches. It is difficult not to have sympathy for Stuart Lancaster but during his four years in charge of England, they came up short in just about every big game.

Eddie Jones is a first-rate coach who has achieved success at every level of the game and he is fully-deserving of the praise he has received for his remarkable achievements with Japan at the World Cup. His appointment as England’s head coach means there will definitely be an improvement in the team’s performances. England have the added bonus of going into the tournament with their club sides being the form teams in the Champions Cup.

Now that France have a coach, they will be a different animal. Guy Novès and Philippe Saint-André are at opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of coaching ability and what they have achieved in the game and the Stade de France is nothing less than a cauldron when Les Bleus are on song. These developments mean that wins on the road are unlikely for Ireland in this year’s Championship.

Ireland have also been hit by an injury crisis recently that is more severe than anything they have experienced in several years. The front row is the worst affected area, with both starting props Cian Healy and Mike Ross ruled out for at least half of the tournament.

Jack McGrath is more than an able replacement at loosehead. He has been one of Ireland’s most consistent performers over the last two years, having started several big games in Healy’s absence. James Cronin has improved his game significantly and has come off the bench a number of times to shore up Munster’s scrum problems this season.

Marty Moore will miss the rest of the season due to a hamstring injury, meaning that both Tadhg Furlong and Nathan White will be in Ireland’s matchday 23. Furlong is an exceptional player when it comes to just about every aspect of tighthead prop play and will be Ireland’s starting No.3 when Ross retires.

For some reason, he is behind White in Joe Schmidt’s pecking order at this moment in time and it is hard to understand why. White’s technical proficiency in the scrum is nothing to write home about and his contributions around the park aren’t particularly noteworthy. He doesn’t make big tackles, he is not effective with ball in hand and his impact at the breakdown is minimal.

The second row is also a major concern for Ireland heading into this year’s tournament. Paul O’Connell’s international retirement means that Ireland will be without the greatest lock and one of the greatest captains that the country has ever produced. Most people talk about ‘manic aggression’ when referring to O’Connell but I think his most important contribution was elsewhere.

The quiet words that he had with players during breaks in play which guided his team through the final quarter of tough games were invaluable. Without him there to carry out this role, Ireland could end up on the wrong side of the scoreboard after 80 minutes in some big games.

To make matters worse, Ireland will also be without O’Connell’s heir apparent, Iain Henderson, after the Ulsterman suffered a hamstring tear against Edinburgh last December. These changes in personnel mean that Schmidt will likely start Donnacha Ryan and Devin Toner in the second row. This will in all probability leave Ireland underpowered in the engine room as Ryan and Toner are both loosehead locks. With so many starting players missing from their front five, Ireland will struggle to be competitive at tight.

Peter O’Mahony, too, is a massive loss. He has been one of the leaders in the team over the last two years. Although he is more of a No.8, CJ Stander’s form this season more than warrants a call-up to the Ireland squad and his outstanding ball-carrying abilities would be a useful addition to Ireland’s pack if given the chance to start at blindside.

Rhys Ruddock would also be an able replacement, having performed well against South Africa and Australia in November 2014 but O’Mahony’s contributions at lineout and ruck have been key to Ireland developing an edge in these areas.

Another factor that hinders Ireland’s chances of winning the tournament this year is the lack of form from their starting half-backs following the World Cup.

Conor Murray’s substandard performances may just be a reflection of Munster’s struggles in European competition but Ireland will need him firing on all cylinders in time for next Sunday. His box-kicking and decision-making are crucial for Ireland’s aerial game and if he doesn’t play to somewhere near his full potential, his team will lose a significant weapon from their armoury.

Johnny Sexton has found some degree of rhythm since December but he still doesn’t look anywhere near 100 per cent. His concussion problems have been well-documented in the media and several players, including Shontayne Hape, Jonathan Thomas, Kevin McLaughlin and Declan Fitzpatrick have retired from the game in recent times due to head trauma. Their accounts of the ill-effects of this type of injury have been terrifying.

Much of what Ireland have done over the last four years has revolved around Sexton and Ireland are a different team without him. At some point, though, one has to wonder what good it does the player or his team if he is constantly being rushed back into big games when he is not fully-fit.

Robbie Henshaw and Jared Payne have had limited game time since returning from their respective injuries, meaning that Schmidt may have to settle in a new centre partnership. Ireland are lucky in this regard as Stuart McCloskey has been a revelation in the 12 jersey for Ulster, while Garry Ringrose’s performances at 13 have been some of the only positives in Leinster’s abysmal season thus far.

The choice of midfielders is an area of Ireland’s game that was heavily criticised in the media leading up to and during the World Cup, with many believing that Schmidt had made the wrong decision to select Henshaw and Payne together in the centre.

Converting two full backs to centres was not ideal, but Schmidt made the most of the resources that were available to him at the time and both players performed better than they were given credit for. Henshaw was probably Ireland’s standout back throughout all of last year and Payne’s absence was the main reason why Ireland’s defensive alignment was so poor in their quarter-final defeat to Argentina in the World Cup.

There is a tendency with players of McCloskey’s size to run headfirst into contact every time they get the ball. However, he is a skilful player with good vision and footwork, and he always looks for space first. When he does take the contact, more often than not, he breaks the first tackle and gets his hands free to offload to a trailing support runner. It would be unfair to drop Henshaw – if he is fit to play – but there is very little else McCloskey can do to earn a place in Ireland’s starting XV.

The conservative nature of Ireland’s game plan was another talking point at the World Cup. There was no intention on Ireland’s part to offload the ball during or after contact which is understandable, considering that it is not something that Irish provincial teams have done regularly over the last two seasons, with the exception of Connacht, who supplied very few players to the national squad during that period.

When you have a player like McCloskey in your team who you know is going to take the contact on his own terms and look to get his hands free, it gives a coach scope to develop an offloading system around him. If he was to start for Ireland, it would allow them to look at expanding their game plan.

Ringrose’s skill levels are excellent for a player of his age and his pace and outside break have created tries when it seems like nothing is on. Certain quarters of the media have questioned the wisdom of throwing him in the deep end of international rugby, which is a reasonable concern. There is always a certain amount of risk that goes with moving someone up to a higher level of the game.

Many players struggle with the increase in pace and physicality but I haven’t yet seen this happen with Ringrose. I don’t see him getting dominated in contact, over-running support lines, knocking ball on or running out steam after 50 minutes. In fact, when Ringrose starts at 13 for Leinster, I see a player who always has time on the ball, a player who gives his back line so many more options in attack than the contact-magnet Ben Te’o.

What must also be taken into account is that Ireland don’t have too many options at 13. Henshaw has been injured for several weeks and may struggle to regain match fitness in time for the start of the tournament and Payne has been starting at full back for Ulster.

Bundee Aki and Francis Saili have started most of Connacht and Munster’s games this season at outside centre and neither player is Irish-qualified. Luke Marshall has been playing well at 13 for Ulster but he is an inside centre who has been moved one position out to accommodate McCloskey.

McCloskey and Ringrose are natural centres and if given half a chance together for Ireland, they could form a partnership that goes on for a decade. Schmidt has decided to err on the side of caution, leaving Ringrose out of his squad to gain more experience with Leinster.

An uncompromising fixture list, injuries to key players, and very few in-form players to select from make it difficult to be optimistic about Ireland’s chances of retaining the Six Nations title this year.

Schmidt has worked miracles with this Ireland team since taking charge but this season will prove to be the most challenging yet. A gruelling three-test tour of South Africa in June doesn’t do anything to help lift the gloom either.