I am putting forward my predictions for each AFL side, starting with the Adelaide Crows.
My wins projection for the side is based on the fixture and my own mathematical modeling, and the structure of the team is based on the structure used by the Coaches All Australian Team for 2015 (which I talked about in a previous post).
Best midfielder – Scott Thompson
With Patrick Dangerfield gone the number one midfield duty returns to Scott Thompson.
As a tackler and clearance player his only peer on this side is Rory Sloane. Modeling suggests that this will be Thompson’s last season as a truly effective midfielder. He will drop off in a number of categories even in 2016 but can still be relied on for 25-plus handball heavy, inside possessions and five or so tackles a game.
Many Crows fans will bristle at the notion that Rory Sloane is not at the top of my list. My data suggests simply that Thompson is still likely, even at 33 years old, to do more of the important things that midfielders do than Sloane in 2016. This is a problem for the Crows, not because Thompson can’t still mix it with the best, but natural attrition suggests that 33-year-old inside midfielders get injured and miss games.
While there are a few players (Sloane definitely, Matt Crouch and maybe Brad Crouch) coming up to replace Thompson, they are at least one more season away from taking the mantle of most important inside midfielder at this club.
Best defender – Matthew Jaensch
In measuring the best defender, I’m including general defenders on the same list as key defenders. In part, this is because for most teams the best ‘key’ defender is obvious and one of only two or three on the list at all.
Matthew Jaensch’s career trajectory in each of the most important statistical categories projects him as top five per cent of the league by 2020. He is, however, coming off an injury and this therefore gives a little less certainty as to what can be expected in terms of his future output. Indeed, 2014 is the only season in which he has played every game.
Nevertheless, his future arc suggests we can expect above-average output in almost every category. If Jaensch can earn between 19-22 kick-centric possessions coming out of the backline, and stay injury-free, his future is bright.
Best forward – Tom Lynch
On paper, for the sake of structuring the team, I have Lynch as a second key forward, with Josh Jenkins on the bench as the second ruck.
In practice, Jenkins will play the second key forward predominantly, and Lynch will play either a high half forward or the ‘third tall’ role. This role is perhaps underrated and speaks to the traditional prevailing perspective of many AFL commentators – that is, we are prone to focus heavily on power forwards.
Certainly once upon a time the biggest marking forward was the most dangerous offensive weapon, and teams lived or died by their eventual goal tally. This is no longer the case.
It is also not the case that ‘third tall’ simply means ‘guy who would be the key forward if he was better’. Statistically, the two players are somewhat similar, although Lynch collects the ball at a higher rate. You may argue this is a function of how far up the ground he plays by comparison to Taylor Walker. My argument would be if Walker is capable of getting more of the ball simply by playing further away from goal, then why isn’t he doing that in the first place?
On the other hand, if Walker cannot or should not play further from goal given he’s 15 kilograms heavier and stronger than Lynch, maybe his role is suited to the goal square – then he relies on Lynch to bridge the ball between the midfield and the forward line.
In terms of projections for 2016, Lynch is only marginally ahead of Walker. He essentially lays tackles at a slightly more frequent rate and gets more of the ball. Nevertheless, he is expected to collect between 18 and 20 possessions as a medium-sized forward, lay a couple of tackles, and mark the ball only slightly less frequently than Walker.
This makes him the most valuable player overall in the Crows forward line for 2016.
Biggest strength: Rotation of general defender/midfielders
The Crows’ strongest area is their defensive end. Owing partly to their youth and partly to the high standard they have set early in their career, all the players in their best back six project as improving significantly or holding consistently through the next five years.
Jaensch, as mentioned, rates as potentially one the best running defenders in the league by 2020, and Jake Lever also projects as in the 90th percentile for all defenders on the basis of his 12 games played in 2015.
Kyle Cheney is an interesting piece in this structure also, I was surprised to find that he is only 26. He is often referred to as a ‘veteran presence’, and having played at three clubs the perception is that he is at the end of his career, when in reality he is coming into his prime. He can also play on bigger forwards if needed and so potentially gives flexibility to Daniel Talia and Lever if an opponent is beating them.
Additionally, Rory Laird and Paul Seedsman, although nominally listed as midfielders, tend to play in the back half of the ground, and so the depth of rotation for both general defender midfielders and key position backs is solid.
Biggest weakness: Ruck depth
It is important to note that the weakness here is ‘depth’ not the ruck itself. Sam Jacobs is perfect for this team as a tap ruckman who plays almost the entire game around the ground in the ruck.
However, in the event of injury to Jacobs, Jenkins becomes the first ruck or maybe Luke Lowden or Reily O’Brien come up from the SANFL. If this happens those players may play out of their skin and fill the gap, but that should not be expected.
The Crows are already relying heavily on an ageing Scott Thompson, Rory Sloane and Matt Crouch to give them ascendancy at stoppages. This in turn relies heavily on Jacobs’ ability to win first possession in the ruck. Without this, the Crows could start to give a lot back to the opposition from stoppage situations.
Unlike some teams in the league, the Crows do not have a balanced ruck rotation. Normally this doesn’t matter, because Jacobs is so good at doing it by himself, so fingers crossed injury does not befall his season.
Best 22 average output
Adelaide – 14.12.96, opponent 11.13.79
An average output of 96 versus 79 would be an outstanding return, however this is only in the event of the best 22 playing every week for 22 weeks.
The best 22 this team can field projects overall as among the weakest four or five ‘best 22′ teams in the league. In this sense then, they are relying on other teams playing well below standard to pinch extra wins.
Moreover, their fixture sees them play strong teams like West Coast, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, North Melbourne and Geelong twice – and at least three of those teams will be in the top eight, which makes for a tricky draw.
Given their vulnerability to injury in the ruck and the relative youth of their list, there are few games you could pencil in as straightforward for Adelaide.
I am predicting a bottom-six finish, ranging from as few as five wins and as many as eight.
Best 22
Backs: Kyle Cheney, Daniel Talia, Matthew Jaensch
Half backs: Brodie Smith, Jake Lever, Ricky Henderson
Centre: Mitchell Grigg, Matt Crouch, Cam Ellis-Yolmen
Half Forwards: Richard Douglas, Tom Lynch, Eddie Betts
Forwards: David Mackay, Taylor Walker, Jake Kelly
Followers: Sam Jacobs, Scott Thompson, Rory Sloane
Interchange: Nathan van Berlo, Rory Laird, Paul Seedsman, Josh Jenkins
Just had to look at a couple of your past opinions on the AFC to better understand your latest piece about the Dangerfield trade. Appear you have been and most likely always will be a crow basher.
Nick Croker
Roar Guru
Took me a while to get to this but cheers mate - patience is a virtue. I believe you are a crows fan yes? I knew this team would make everyone yell at me but I had to write it up based on my results otherwise I'd just be copying everyone else predictions. Incidentally if you ignore the structure I've gone with - move Jenkins to CHF, Lynch to a flank, Betts to the pocket and drop McKay for Charlie Cameron to start on the bench what else would you do different so say B: Cheney Talia Jaensch HB: B Smith Lever Henderson C: Grigg M Crouch Ellis Yolmen HF Douglas Jenkins Betts F Cameron Walker Lynch FOLL Jacobs Thompson Sloane INT Van Berlo Laird Seedsman Kelly That team looks more like what people have proposed and the only diff is Cameron for McKay and some position shuffling - but I tried to explain my reasons for that - guys who plyed last year Luke Brown, Atkins, Hartigan, Lyons, Menzel coming over from Carlton - I personally don't believe those guys should be picked first and I'd be interested (and surprised) if anyone else really thought those guys deserve to be picked far ahead of anyone I've listed. Also I do think you're susceptible to falling away if Jacobs gets injured. Doesn't he need to be replaced by Luke Lowden if he goes down? Surely we would all agree that's a fair drop off?
Nick Croker
Roar Guru
And and just to clarify - I don't pick them to win 11 games because I wouldn't just expect that they will beat all the teams that finished outside the 8 last year. I believe the Crows will comfortably be better than Carlton, Essendon and Brisbane in 2016 (im fairly certain they play those guys just once each) but after that who do you pencil them in to beat for certain? You may have said Gold Coast or GWS in the past but to be honest I expect they will both get better. Melbourne and StKilda are teams they should probably beat but I wouldn't call it a lock. After that who? Port? Freo? WC? Hawthorn? Geelong (jeez i bet you crows fans would LOVE that!)? Anyway I am legitimately curious on your thoughts because I don't believe Adelaide are a poor list but I am not convinced that they are that strong relative to the rest of the competition. Their first month is North in melb, Port, Richmond in melb and the Swans in Adelaide - you would not be completely surprised if they lost all of those games. And I know no one likes my team but the trend for the most part in the AFL is to play a bit smaller, a bit more mobile and flexible and I think the team I have here is exactly that - mobile and flexible with lots of players who can share midfield duties which is pretty crucial. Also just to highlight a point I made in the article but no one has expanded on - what DOES happen if Jacobs gets injured? Surely that would be a disaster for the Crows? Luke Lowden is the back up I suppose but does anyone really think they make the finals with Lowden playing much?
Nick Croker
Roar Guru
Yeh the likely output of the best 22 is relative to the other teams in the league - so a teams best 22 will have a high potential percentage IF they played their best 22 every game of the year. Obviously this wont happen due to injury or trying out younger players and so forth. So I dont actually predict that they will score 100 to 79 every week but this is what their best 22 would be worth if it was always available and played to its expected value. 11 teams that finished outside the top 8? Theres only 10 non finals teams for a start, and to your point I think some of those teams will rise and finish in the 8. Surely you would agree if you were picking any finals team from 2015 to fall it would be Adelaide - I am constantly amazed that people believe Dangerfield will propel Geelong not only into the finals but in contention for top 4 and somehow the loss will not effect Adelaide's ladder position - he's either value added/lost for the teams that gained/lost him or he's not gonna make a difference to either side right? He cant improve the team he goes to and have the club he left not be diminished? Adelaide haven't replaced him with anyone really and you can say what you want about players 'stepping up to fill the role' - whoever 'steps up' needs someone to take their role and so on. Jenkins is a 'second ruck' he might only do it for 10% of the game but he is the second ruck he just doesnt split the duty 50/50. And yes obviously he lines up in the forward line but I am working on a specific blueprint for the structure of the side - but if it pleases you put him in the forward line on field push Lynch to High Half Forward, Betts to the pocket and McKay to the bench. - i do realise this is how they will line up normally but as I say working on a specific structural blueprint. I appreciate your point of view but I honestly believe that goals are a product of the other things that happen on the field and that placing lots of stock in guys who kick heaps of goals is a bit flawed in the modern era. Yes set shot kicking is a specific skill and guys like Betts are more creative than other players but these are skills that I think have less unique value than they did in an era where you just booted it inside 50 and let forwards make their own luck. So winning 50/50 or 1 on 1 contests is certainly a good skill to have and as you point out, not something I'm accounting for, but players just get less opportunity in those type of situations than they did in the past and as such being able to get the ball, make space and use your team-mates is far more valuable than simply winning a 1 on 1 wrestle which is often negated by spare defenders.
Vocans
Guest
Yes, this is a make or break year or him. He has shown signs but only signs. He needs to be much more consistent and skilled if he wants to play in a team able to make the finals. Lever will likely be CHB for years to come if Harto doesn't make the grade. There are some big mobile guys in the mix who could fill the spot, but they're a long way off as yet. And most would not be seeing them in that light.
ben scott
Roar Rookie
Have u guys watched all of kyle hartigans games maybe he's a good bloke but he is a terrible afl player
Lamby
Roar Rookie
It is a nice hypothesis, but I am pretty sure it is wrong :-) I think it would make sense if you called the article 'Adelaide best 22 to pick for a fantasy league team', but not if you are picking the best 22 players. You bottom line is wrong. Carlton would be a MUCH better team with Taylor Walker playing CHF and he would get roughly the same amount of possessions. A LOT of what make Tex a great player is his ability to win in the 1-on-1 contests. Tex destroyed Rance last year when Adelaide played them and was a big reason why the beat Richmond. Same goes for Bets and Charlie Cameron. The ability to score goals (which you need to win games) from 50-50 contests is why Adelaide kicked so many goals. Adelaide do not play with 2 rucks. Jacobs rucks 80-90% of the game and Jenkins gives him a quick rest. Jenkins would still play full forward if Adelaide had another quality ruckman. You then state that Adelaide has a higher scoring output than average (14.12.96, opponent 11.13.79), but pick them to only win 5 games? This does not make sense. This would give them a 120% percentage - good enough for top 4! They play 11 teams who finished outside the top 8 next year - surely with that scoring rate your model should pick them to win 11 games?
Nick Croker
Roar Guru
Also I think I said in the article - maybe I left it out - that obviously Jenkins is the second key forward and plays at CHF mostly. But because he's the second Rick I started him in the bench to follow the format proposed by the coaches association which reserves a spot for the second Rick on the bench. And also to clarify with respect to leaving out nominal goal kickers. My feeling is that a goal is merely the product of a string of other inputs. Therefore I don't necessarily place a lot of weight in individual goal kickers particularly if they don't have a broader impact on the game. The real unit of performance, the thing that teams do which correlates with winning is get that ball. Other things matter too but possession is most important. So sometimes goal kickers are impactful but sometimes they're just the lucky recipient at the end of the chain. I think it's more important to evaluate the aspects of performance that produce goals rather than just look at who gets the goals because in many cases the fact that a player kicks a goal is just a function of where they stand positionally- not always, but often. Bottom line Taylor Walker doesn't kick many goals if he's on Carltons list (or some other team with an average midfield) and Levi Casboult probably kicks significantly more goals if you play him in a team with an awesome midfield like Hawthorn.
Nick Croker
Roar Guru
Take it up with Champion Data - they classify Kelly and McKay as 'General Forwards' which is based on the percentage of time they play in different parts of the ground. I think they both add greater all round value to the side than Charlie Cameron.
Nick Croker
Roar Guru
I only measured players who had played a game in 2015 so you could make a case for crouch easily, in fact I probably would have him in but I judged needed some senior games in 2015 to do the measure - I mean you could make a case for a bunch of first year guys too but I don't have access to their underage stats and don't have a quantifiable way to transfer TAC cup form to the AFL
M
Roar Rookie
Agreed with Lamby. Although I appreciate the effort in making the article the way you have collated the data has resulted in unusable conclusions whether it be for who is the best player/s or for fantasy purposes. This is also the second article in recent times on the roar regarding the crows list from an obvious non-crows fan. Perhaps stick to the teams you follow or do further research than purely the stats?
Buzz Killington
Guest
Agreed with Lamby above. I appreciate the effort gone into the article, however the way you are collating data is resulting in unusable information - whether it be to determine the best players or for fantasy purposes it is incorrect in both cases. This is the second team I have seen on here in recent times for the crows which has clearly been collated by someone not familiar with the crows side.
vocans
Guest
You didn't understand what I meant by 'significant' :( :(
Lamby
Roar Rookie
And Jake Kelly ahead of Jenkins up forward??? Josh kicked 46 goals last year - 14th in the AFL! You are mad. The Crows forward line for 2015: #2 (in the AFL) Betts 63 (goals) #4 Walker 59 goals #14 Jenkins 46 goals #38 Lynch 32 goals #44 Cameron 29 goals So 5 of the forward 6 in the top 50 goal scorers, 3 in top 15! Probably 3rd best in the league! And you left out 2 of the top goal scorers in the league??
Doc Disnick
Roar Guru
"That boot is significantly below the belt." Could be worse being just below the belt. :(
Vocans
Guest
Yep, there are a number of anomalies showing up in the figures, and the best 22 above is very unlikely to ever grace the field. Still, let's give Nick a go as he hones his craft :)
Vocans
Guest
That boot is significantly below the belt. And I hope you've got it out of your system!
Vocans
Guest
Nick, I understand the limitations of statistical analysis when it comes to things that are (a) not quantifiable, and (b) the measurements are of debatable reliability and apllicability. You're giving us what the numbers give us under the rigours of interprtation. Things like what it gives a team to have someone talking, directing, and saving the day on the last line all add up to subjective categories like leadership and morale. These ar eclearly notoriously difficult, if not impossible, to measure. With a player like Talia we might find some ways to quantify them. The number of spoils, particularly to advantage, say over the boundary, through the goals, to team mates, could be added to contested marks against, for example. This might start to measure some of these more subjective elements of a key defenders game. Of course, another crucial measure is goals against, weighted perhaps especially for key defenders on key forwards. Such a player does not need his players around him so much as the other way - they rely on him to step up on the last line and lead them in their apprenticeship. Rutten was a prime example, and he was also highly underrated, Cheers.
Lamby
Roar Rookie
And Laird made the 40 man All-Australian squad at back pocket!
Lamby
Roar Rookie
How does David Makay make the best 22? Charlie Cameron played almost every game in 2015 in a forward pocket and DM did not line up in the forward line once!