Are the Carolina Panthers really going to win the Super Bowl with Ted Ginn Jr as their number one wide receiver?
The Panthers have been the least heralded 17-1 team in NFL history, largely because nobody has believed in their skill position players.
Greg Olsen is a monster, but outside of his star tight end, Cam Newton has mainly succeeded with scraps to work with on offence.
Jonathan Stewart is fine but unexceptional at running back, a 5’10 ground and pounder who has topped 1000 yards just once in his career. Ginn is a journeyman cast-off who has changed teams four times, Devin Funchess is a rookie, and Jerricho Cotchery featured in Madden ’04.
Denver’s strongest hope for victory will come from the belief that their defence is so good and Carolina’s offence is so dependent on Newton, with only Olsen talented enough to bail him out, that they’ll be able to prevent the Panthers from putting up points.
The Broncos defence is the league’s best by a significant margin, whether you’re going by DVOA ranking or the eyeballs of any person who watched the AFC Championship game. Their offence is garbage that occasionally gets set on fire though, with the pungent fumes sailing through the air much faster than Peyton Manning’s tragic floating passes that die on the road to nowhere.
The Broncos finished the year with the league’s 25th ranked offence in DVOA, a ranking inflated by Brock Osweiler, who for all intents and purposes is a better quarterback than Manning in 2016. Before the five-time MVP was mercifully replaced by Osweiler against the Chiefs in Week 10, the Broncos had the league’s worst offence.
Denver isn’t going to be able to score against Carolina’s second-ranked defence. If they put up more than 14 points it will be a minor miracle. They couldn’t get anything going on the ground against the Patriots and it’s hard to see them having any more success against the Panthers. They’ll have to hope that the brilliance of Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders and Owen Daniels can keep the chains moving and Manning has a couple of pearlers in him like last week’s immaculately delivered second touchdown pass to Daniels.
But if Denver wins, it’s not going to be because Manning found the fountain of youth. He is what he is at this stage, which statistically is the worst starting quarterback in the NFL. Sunday in San Francisco will represent the biggest gap in quality between starting quarterbacks at the big dance since Manning himself went up against Rex Grossman in 2006.
We have over a year’s evidence to suggest that Manning has nothing left, but Denver just needs him to feign competence for one more week, as he did against Pittsburgh and New England. Denver needs to eke out 13 to 20 points against Carolina and then hope that its defence isn’t just the best in the league, but one of the greatest of all time.
What makes this Super Bowl fascinating is that after last week’s performance, it’s not unreasonable to think that Denver’s D might just have all-time greatness in them.
There have been some legendary defensive performances in the playoffs in the 21st century. These Broncos know that all too well, having been obliterated by Seattle’s ferocious defensive unit two years ago. The Ravens have had their share of transcendent defences, bludgeoning the Giants in 2000 and the Patriots in 2013. Wade Phillips’ Denver defence seems to be in that calibre. While the Broncos might only have 13 points in them, they might be able to hold the Panthers to 10.
Cam Newton might be the NFL’s best player, but that means little after the nightmare the Broncos defence put arguably the game’s best ever quarterback through last week. Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware lived in the New England backfield all day, treating the Patriot offensive linemen like turnstiles. It wasn’t entirely surprising – the Patriots have a bad offensive line, ranking 18th in the league for pass protection. Worryingly for Carolina, the Panthers are even worse, ranking 21st.
Playing in the putrid NFC South, Carolina had an easy schedule but they’ve still come up against a top-ten defence five times this season. The results: 31 and 27 points against Seattle, 49 against Arizona, 37 against Green Bay and 24 against Houston. Aside from their lone loss, a 20-13 defeat against Atlanta where Carolina had nothing tangible to play for, the Panthers haven’t been kept below 20 points all season. That doesn’t bode well for the Broncos, who will have few discernible avenues to 20 on Sunday.
Denver will have to hope that its defence is historically great to the point of being the outlier that can contain Carolina. They should be confident in stopping Stewart on the ground, and if they can restrict Olsen then Newton will have few other places to turn. Denver got inside Brady’s head with their ferocious pressure last week and they should be even more confident getting inside Newton’s, playing in his first ever Super Bowl.
If Denver’s defensive line can dominate Carolina’s O-Line, the stellar secondary wraps a tight blanket over Carolina’s limited receivers, and the pressure and lack of open men rattles Newton, then Denver can win. They have a slight edge in special teams, ranking 14th in DVOA against Carolina’s 23rd ranked unit, and they’ll need that edge to manifest in favourable field position.
All these things are eminently possible. Denver’s defence is that good. They have karma on their side with the Manning fairytale narrative combined with the ugly stories about Carolina’s players attacking Odell Beckham Jr with a slew of anti-gay slurs. Thomas Davis will likely be playing at half strength if he plays at all, and Denver has experience on their side.
Manning has played in more big games than anyone aside from the guy his team just knocked out, and Denver has Super Bowl experience from just two years ago. They were embarrassed that day, but that could be liberating this time around. They have nothing to lose and they won’t be afraid. Carolina might be, and they have everything to lose.
And in saying all this…
Panthers by 10.
Conan McGlone
Roar Pro
Also, let's not forget, for all that can be said about Carolina's line. There's probably 20 offenses that I'd rather have than Denver's. Denver have the worst unit on the field.
Conan McGlone
Roar Pro
But I don't think their 4 man rush will do against the Panthers when the Panthers use 6 and 7 man blocking schemes. It's true that there's likely to be mismatches with Olsen/Stewart/Tolbert if they have to block a V.Miller, but their zone blocking scheme also means that the Broncos will need to temper their aggression or be caught out for big run games. I'm not saying the Broncos can't get pressure. It's Von Miller and Ware after all. What I'm saying is you can throw last week out the window because the New England patriots is almost a different sport to what Carolina put out there. Also Denver play their best coverage as man coverage - which means their corners and nickles get their backs turned to the line of scrimmage which creates opportunities for Cam. If they spy the quarterback, which they'll have to with Cam, it's going to open up opportunities for Olsen. Against NE the Denver defense was playing 11 v 10 because Brady is only a passer (not an insult). Against Carolina they have to play 11 v 11 because Cam is so multifaceted. It's apples and oranges and I think they're going to struggle. Also, even if Denver do shut down Cam, they have to produce on the other side of the ball, and I don't see Manning doing that against the Panthers defense which swarms to the ball and creates more points than any team in the league.
pete bloor
Guest
But something lost in that narrative is that the broncos having an effective 4 man rush means they are better placed to contain or spy without sacrificing pressure or coverage. Not sure that is something Newton will have seen a lot of (teams actually being able to execute that plan rather than just trying to execute) I'm a broncos fan for full disclosure and I'm hoping the Manning from the start of the year was the result of his injuries (the line the team is using but then coaches lie to the public:) Still I'd put my money behind the panthers if I had to bet, just not at under 1.50 in a game between two #1 seeds (even if Denver isn't the quality of a real #1) One bad dvoa stat for Denver , no team has ever won being even close this bad on offence
Conan McGlone
Roar Pro
It's not elite, but it's certainly better than the banged up offensive line that New England put out two weeks ago. A healthy New England is another story. Plus the narrative is more that it's going to be harder to do the same against Newton, which it will be. New England completely abandoned the run, and Denver were able to jam the NE receivers at the line, whilst also anticipating the snap count very well. The Panthers are a completely different beast. What worked against NE won't necessarily work against a power running team like Carolina.
steve
Guest
Just to be clear, i wasn't suggesting that the Carolina O line is elite. Just that it's better than the O line the Pats put on the field in the AFC Championship and that this couple with a coupls of other things (better run game and duel threat QB) make the super bowl a completely different prospect for the Denver defense. Let's not forget that as well as denver played on defense (at that was about as well as you can) they only just scrapped past New England. I don't think Carolina need a top 5 O line to win the Super Bowl...just one that's a bit better than New England.
James
Guest
and NFL.com has them ranked #1 in the post season http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?role=TM&offensiveStatisticCategory=OFFENSIVE_LINE&tabSeq=2 Denvers D-line will be providing constant pressure and the Oline will need to be great to keep cam's jursey cleanish, but to claim the panthers oline is worse then the patriots is incorrect.
Jay Croucher
Expert
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol The empirical DVOA data combined with Benoit's qualitative analysis (which is pretty solid) suggests that the Panthers have a middle of the road offensive line and will be at a serious disadvantage against Denver's D-Line.
James
Guest
constantly ranked top five in PFF. https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2016/01/20/pro-ranking-all-32-offensive-lines-this-season/ 2. Carolina Panthers (22nd last year) Pass-blocking rank: 4th Run-blocking rank: 6th Penalties rank: 7th on top of that they have pro bowl Center and Guard in Ryan Kalil and Trai Turner. diffidently not 21st ranked group.
Jay Croucher
Expert
I'm not entirely sure where this narrative has sprung from that the Panthers O-Line is elite and significantly better than New England's, at least in pass protection. They're certainly not top five in all categories. Per DVOA they rank 21st in the league in pass protection with a below average adjusted sack rate. The reason the bare stats look good is because Carolina barely passes the ball (27th in the league for pass attempts per game), but on a per play basis the offensive line is mediocre in pass protection (21st) and slightly above average in the run game (12th). As Andy Benoit details, a lot of Carolina's success with their offensive line has been a form of conceptual smoke and mirrors. He describes the battle between Carolina's O-Line and Denver's D-Line as the 'ultimate mismatch'. A good read for anyone who wants to get heavy nerdy into line play: http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2016/01/25/nfl-denver-broncos-carolina-panthers-super-bowl-50-ultimate-mismatch
Jay Croucher
Expert
Hopefully the great man himself didn't read it. Which, somehow I fathom, he probably did not. I'll be watching it in Buenos Aires mate, made sure I'd be in a city for the big game. The Patagonian mountains might be majestic but the WiFi connection in the region is not. Should be a ripper.
Steve
Guest
As others have already pointed out, the Panthers O Line is significantly better than the Pats. Additionally, this season Newton has been just at home passing from inside the pocket as he has been running the zone read and the Panthers have had good success with Stewart out of the back field also. A better O Line, more mobile QB and superior run game make this a very different match up for the Denver defence than the challenge in the AFC Championship Game. Should be a fascinating game, but as a neutral for the big game I don't expect it will be particularly close. I just can't see Denver keeping Carolina out of the end zone the way they did New England and don't think Denver has what it takes to keep up on offense.
Ryan Buckland
Expert
Oh Jay, this line, its just too perfect Their offence is garbage that occasionally gets set on fire though, with the pungent fumes sailing through the air much faster than Peyton Manning’s tragic floating passes that die on the road to nowhere. I'm really excited, should be a great game. Where are you watching? On a South American beach with decent wifi?
Conan McGlone
Roar Pro
I go into more detail here: http://www.theroar.com.au/2016/02/03/blueprints-success-super-bowl-50/ but Denver will have a lot more difficulty emulating last weeks success against the Panthers. Their line is much better than the Patriots, and they have a legitimate defense of their own. Plus Cam's athleticism and the use of the zone read will make it much harder for Denver's pass rush. If Denver wins they do so by keeping Cam in the pocket and making him try to win through the air. It's really a case of very good defense and good offense vs great defense and bad offense.
James
Guest
only two issues with this article. Panthers Oline is top 5 in all categories so so the trenches will be an excellent battle to watch. the other is the Kama/OBJ line. the giants angle is sensationalized rubbish where OBJ was clearly out to hurt/take out panther players during the game. btw the Panthers have there own fairytale player, Thomas Davis. He has had three ACL tears and is playing with a freaking broken arm. going to be a heck of a game.
Pete McAloney
Roar Pro
I just checked the odds and Panthers are $1.43 favourites, and rightly so, as your excellent article explains Jay. And yet... I am so very much hoping that the Sheriff can ride off into the sunset with one last victory. The performance by the D against the Pats was scary stuff. Who was the Broncos player who said he wanted to rub his nuts in Tom's face? Haha! You could see how shook up he was, and Tom is a very experienced and super-talented (kills me to admit it) QB. Cam is a wonderful QB and should win MVP easily. But there's a very real risk the big stage and the Bronco's ferocious D will completely throw him off, so that he throws off, sorry couldn't resist. And then Peyton can definitely pull out of the bag one last game's worth of excellence. I can dream!