Saturday sure things: CF Orr Stakes day

Group 1 racing for 2016 kicks off this Saturday at Caulfield, with the CF Orr Stakes (1400m) highlighting a bumper nine-race card.

In the feature race, Rising Romance looks tremendous overs at the $34 mark. She is a classy mare who ran a ripping race first-up last time at this track and distance in the Memsie, behind Boban.

While she didn’t really set the world on fire subsequently, she didn’t have a great deal of luck on a couple of occasions. A recent Flemington jump out was encouraging and despite drawing wide, she is definitely worth an each-way ticket at that price.

The main threats are Lucky Hussler, who has race fitness, and Mourinho, who was a real eye-catcher first up in the Australia Stakes (1200m).

In terms of other feature races on the program, the best is Azkadellia in the last, the Bellmaine Stakes (1200m). Really been taken by her at the trials and jump outs, and her last two runs were arguably the best of the Spring. She’s my early Doncaster tip, and she can return a winner.

While all that happens at Caulfield, Cox Plate hero Winx kicks off her 2016 campaign in the feature race at Randwick, the Group 2 Apollo Stakes (1400m).

From what I have seen at the trials and her exhibition gallop last Saturday, she looks to have really furnished out and got stronger, which is a scary proposition for her rivals. She is around the $1.50 mark, but there are a couple of negatives with her to make that price look a touch risky.

I am interested to see how the Hayes-Dabernig runner Dibayani resumes. He looked the part in a recent Randwick trial, and it may well be that he is suited to racing clockwise. He looks the better option from a betting perspective on an each-way basis.

Best bet of the day
Morphettville Parks Race 5, Number 10 Tidy Prophet

I have been on this mare’s back this prep, and she has been unlucky in just about every start. Forget she went around last time out at Flemington, given she was racing in the inferior ground. Returns to Adelaide now, and will love the step up to 1950m. The other big key is the booking of Matty Neilson, who rides the mare well. With luck from the tricky gate, she should just about take care of this bunch.

Trial watch
Caulfield Race 3, Number 2 Concealer

This Tony McEvoy-trained filly won impressively on debut down the straight at Flemington on Cup Day at surprisingly good odds.

Had a jump out at Flemington last Friday and couldn’t have gone any better, with a sharp time in comparison to other trials that morning. Looks as though she’ll get good cover from the gate, so surprising she is $8 or thereabouts.