Following their surprising victory in Super Bowl 50, the Denver Broncos are facing a number of questions that will determine whether they stay on top or fall back to earth in the 2016 NFL season.
Can they keep the defence together?
The dominant play of the Broncos defence was unquestionably the biggest factor towards their success this season.
The unit led by Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware was phenomenal all year, leading the league in defensive efficiency since Week 1 and peaking with two terrifying performances that were enough to give any quarterback a nervous breakdown.
Super Bowl MVP Miller’s first strip-sack of Cam Newton not only resulted in the game’s first touchdown, but also succeeded in making one of the strongest, most athletic quarterbacks alive resemble a high-school student who had accidentally stumbled on to the field.
Miller is a legit star, however he is also a free agent and will demand a contract of over $100 million. There is no way the Broncos will let him get away, even if it means utilising the one-year franchise tag that all teams can designate to a single player each season.
Paying big money to Miller has a ripple effect down the rest of the roster. Other notable free agents on the Denver defence include Malik Jackson, Brandon Marshall and Danny Trevathan. Including the playoffs, the trio combined for 216 tackles and seven sacks this season. All three are under the age of 26 and entering their primes, with Jackson in particular emerging as a true force on this all-world defensive line.
In recent times, Super Bowl winners such as Seattle and Baltimore have had trouble keeping all the pieces of their championship defences together due to the financial squeeze that affects many great teams. For Denver, the need to avoid any drop off in the quality of their defence is especially important given what is happening on the other side of the ball.
Who plays quarterback?
Speculation about Peyton Manning’s future has overshadowed all other NFL-related topics to the point where the first post-Super Bowl interviews were a breathless rush to coax Peyton into announcing his retirement on-air.
Despite his coy side-stepping of all prompts thus far, it seems highly likely that Manning will at some point soon announce that he has indeed played his last game in the NFL. What seems even more certain is that the five-time MVP has played his last game for the Broncos.
Manning’s contract will pay him over $20 million next year should he choose to continue his career. Denver general manager John Elway will surely balk at paying that kind of money to a soon-to-be 40-year-old quarterback whose play in the Super Bowl could be generously described as just competent enough to avoid losing.
Releasing or trading Manning would pave the way for backup Brock Osweiler, who many would argue outplayed Peyton in the seven games he started this season. However, what seems like a logical succession plan is muddied by the fact that Osweiler is also a free agent.
In a league that is perennially desperate for quarterbacks who show any sign of being above average, Osweiler is bound to draw interest from rival teams, with the Cleveland Browns already throwing themselves into the mix. The Broncos defence has shown that they’re capable of overcoming mediocre offensive play, but losing two quarterbacks familiar with the Denver playbook would hurt.
How much luck can one team have?
To win a championship in any sport you have to be lucky. In the case of the 2015-16 Denver Broncos, it’s fair to say they fulfilled this criteria.
NFL games can often come down to the bounce of a ball, a penalty at the wrong time, or a kick that misses by an inch. Despite what some pundits may spout about the ‘clutch gene’ or ‘knowing how to win the close games’, the reality is that most close games are decided on random twists of fate.
This season Denver won an NFL-record 11 games by seven points or less. Not included in that list is the Super Bowl, which was also within seven points until CJ Anderson’s game-sealing touchdown with three minutes left in the game.
The NFL’s Pythagorean formula, which predicts the number of games a team should win based on points scored and allowed, indicates that the Broncos have the second-highest differential in the league between actual and predicted games won.
Studies have shown that sheer regression to the mean will often cause teams that significantly overachieve their expected win total to suffer a reduction in wins the following season.
However, if Denver can retain Miller and their other key defensive cogs, while getting average play from the offence, who’s to say they can’t beat the odds and surprise the world again?
pete bloor
Guest
As for moon I can't give any credibility to the cfl inclusion, determine the greatest nfl qb because he lit up an inferior league? Why not include high school stat's?
pete bloor
Guest
Brees never led the league in qbr and the stat's he out ranks are the counting stat's which is more a product of offensive design. Sorry but with some one going hey look at Marino v peers I can go I understand. But brees peak is covered by qbr and he didn't once top the league? Was he an awesome qb? Sure. But it's tough to say how on stat's you can put him in front of Peyton, better any/attempt, net td/int % and miles better qbr. If a guy never once ranked top of the league in something like qbr it's hard to say his stat's suggest he's the best of all time.
Nate
Guest
I see your argument against Moon but he threw the prettiest spiral I have ever seen. Add in his late start to the NFL and all the Canadian records and you could make a case for him too. He never had quality around him in the NFL except a couple of years with Moss and Carter, but even then the rest of the team wasn't great and he was old by that point. As for Brees, I think his record and stats speak for themselves. Just doing a quick check on career stats between Brady and Brees and Drew comes out on top in a number of categories. He was also on some pretty awful teams for a while and was a huge part (along with a hurricane) in turning that franchise around.
pete bloor
Guest
There was an article on espn I think where they looked at Manning and Brad's play off win loss and said okay now if we change two last gasp defensive reads by individual dbs they had nothing to do with (Moore inexplicably cutting under to go for the pick v the ravens and butlers intercept last year) and have their kickers records switched on game winning kicks.... They'd actually flip records.
pete bloor
Guest
For my true elite list I wouldn't have brees or moon. They are in the definite next tier for me with guys like Kelly, Warner, Steve young. Nothing wrong with being on list 1a. But every one on "my" list is a guy I'd be okay with if you said I think they are the best. I'm not okay with Warren moon being the best qb of all time
Patrick Effeney
Editor
There's an article in this.
Nate
Guest
4 coaches rather, not QBs. Too late to edit...
Nate
Guest
Oh, and that Favre guy
Nate
Guest
Agreed with your sentiment about top tier QBs Pete. Manning Brady Brees Montana Elway Marino Moon These are the ones that I had the pleasure to watch that will always be the top tier QBs to me. Some played with great teams, others not so, but all well and truly passed the eye test and were a pleasure to watch. I still get chills thinking of some of the AFC West matchups between Elway and Montana back in the day.
Nate
Guest
See I'm not sure between Peyton and Brady honestly. Sure Brady has won the rings but who's to say that he would have got those if not playing his whole career for one of the greatest coaches of the modern age. Hell, even Matt Cassell went 11-5 with that team when Brady was out. What else has Cassell ever done? Then there's Peyton, who was part of taking 4 different QBs to the Superbowl, and there was little doubt in anyone's mind that Peyton was both QB and OC for those teams. Remember, Brady's first ring (or two) came in a pretty similar way to Peyton's last one. Teams predicated on defense and a QB that didn't screw it up. Not saying Peyton is better, more that it's not the clear cut case many think it is.
pete bloor
Guest
Depends entirely who you ask. NFL is near impossible to pinpoint just how much was the player and just how much was the team and the coaching, it’s why the draft is a such an inexact science. Personally I’d take Manning over Brady if I had no more information about the team and coach but can easily see why others take other players. For instance if you say hey we’ve got a top 5 offensive line and a offensive maestro coach I take Brady over Manning. But really I’d say there is a “list” of top tier QB’s that successfully carried passing offences for several years and he’s on it and everyone's personal bias changes the order on that list. On the “was it a cool head”. Nope. Manning was god awful this year and even worse in the super bowl horrible this year. He was also horrible in the super bowl turning it over twice and posting a QBR of 10 (it is out of 100) in the game (Newton’s god awful catastrophe was rated higher at 16). It was defence (though both defenses were bloody good with the panthers holding the Bronco's to fewer yards) and special teams (only one team was good with Denver's punting unit out gaining the panthers by more than the panthers offence outgained the broncos) that decided the game.
Kris
Guest
I think its great that a team doesn't need to have an elite qb to win the big one. So many teams get fixated on finding their franchise qb, that they miss the other areas they can also win with. Sure getting an elite qb is probably the easiest path to contention, in a league with only 5 of those out of 32 teams you need to think differently. On statistics, Manning is the best. But if my life depended on it I would go with Brady. Montana was good, but they didn't lean on him nearly as much as the Patriots have on Brady over the last decade. He has carried the load for that team for so long and won super bowls all the way (for disclosure I'm a Broncos fan)
Keagan Ryan
Roar Guru
Behind Montana and Brady
Patrick Effeney
Editor
Interesting isn't it, how a gun QB isn't 100% necessary to win yourself the big dance. Is there anything to say about experience/cool head? Or was it all just defence? Not being massive on NFL, where does Peyton sit on the list of QBs in the League?