There’s a seminal line in the movie Moneyball: “We need 38 home runs, 120 RBIs and 47 doubles to replace.” Abuse of the English language aside, the brass at the Adelaide Crows likely reprised this phrase in October last year, except they had 21 goals, 165 clearances and 350 contested possessions to replace.
For those unfamiliar, Moneyball is the story of how the Oakland Athletics turned to economics and statistics as their competitive advantage in Major League Baseball, a sport where money can literally buy you a championship.
The scene occurs in a dank scouting room on one of the first days off the offseason, when the Athletics’ list management team are discussing how to replace Jason Giambi, their power hitter and first baseman, who had left the team to take up a lucrative offer with the New York Yankees. I love it.
The parallel with Adelaide’s situation ends right about there, but I’ve been looking for a chance to roll out a direct quote from this movie for some time…
So uhh, yes, to Adelaide. The Crows lost their best player – one of the top-five players in the league as far as I’m concerned – Patrick Dangerfield, to Geelong in last year’s offseason. Dangerfield was a restricted free agent, but the Crows and Cats both realised that getting it done the old school way was the way to go.
Dangerfield was important to the way Adelaide played football in the past few years – his versatility and power allowed the Crows to build a sledgehammer masquerading as a midfield. Led by Dangerfield’s 165 clearances – almost eight per game – the Crows were third in clearance differential and contested possession differential in the home-and-away season. The only other team to rank in the top four for both important indicators was Fremantle, who have Nat Fyfe, David Mundy and Lachie Neale roving to Aaron Sandilands.
But the group wasn’t at its peak, with the 2015 Crows listed as the eighth oldest and 11th most experienced squad in the league. The retirement of Brent Reilly and James Podsiadly means the Crows enter this year with just one 30-year-old on the list, the indefatigable Scott Thompson. If Dangerfield had stayed, the Crows would have improved upon their ignominious semi-final exit at the hands of the Hawks last year. Mark my words, the Crows were a rising football team.
That’s in the past now, and the Crows can’t dwell on it. Adelaide have 21 goals, 165 clearances and 350 contested possessions to replace.
A useful place to start is looking at the ins enabled by Dangerfield’s departure, because for the Crows, there were a lot.
Adelaide secured Geelong’s Round 1 (ninth) and Round 2 (28th) draft picks for Dangerfield, as well as second-year player Dean Gore, on a deal that was done on the first morning of the trade period. This gave them an incredible amount of football capital to play with, and nearly all of the trade period to use it. Adding those two extra top-30 picks meant the Crows could leverage their draft picks over both this year and next to bring in established talent. That’s exactly what they did.
Out went 2016’s second-round pick, Adelaide’s 2015 second-round pick and Geelong’s second-round pick (as well as single game sophomore Sam Kerridge), and in came Curtly Hampton (Greater Western Sydney), Paul Seedsman (Collingwood) and Troy Menzel (Carlton) respectively. The Crows then went to the draft with both their’s and Geelong’s first-round picks, taking highly rated Wayne Milera and Draft Bolter™ Tom Doedee at pick 11 and 17 respectively.
Let’s park the draftees for now, because they aren’t important to the story.
The Crows lost Dangerfield, and to replace him brought in Hampton, Seedsman and Menzel, and were gifted the untried Gore. Just for kicks, how close do we get to replacing Dangerfield’s three stats from above?
Dangerfield (2015): 21 goals, 165 clearances, 350 contested possessions.
Hampton + Seedsman + Menzel (2015): 17 goals, 21 clearances, 118 contested possessions.
And that’s not prorated, that’s Dangerfield’s line over 23 games versus the 31 games that the three others played last year. While he’s not irreplaceable – no individual is – number 32 is about as close to that superlative as we have in the league right now.
But guess what? It probably doesn’t matter.
The recruits won’t add what has been subtracted by Dangerfield’s departure, but they will provide the Crows with something they have been lacking in recent years: outside pace and a touch of class, to complement the exceptional inside midfield core.
Adelaide have ranked second last or last for the share of their possessions coming in uncontested situations in three of the past four seasons, and were ranked 15th in uncontested possession differential last year.
Much of that is scheme-oriented: the Crows like to throw their weight around and play direct, sacrificing the kick-mark side of the game that has emerged at places like Hawthorn and West Coast in recent years. They won the outside battle on just seven occasions last year, winning all seven games. Perhaps there’s something there?
Here’s where the new recruits come in. All three of the established AFL players coming in will allow the Crows to become more balanced in the way they attack: Hampton is pure run, Seedsman played as a running half back flanker in his time at Collingwood, and Menzel’s presence in the forward line will allow rising speed machine Charlie Cameron to spend more time through the middle of the ground.
It should benefit Adelaide’s attack, too. Champion Data’s AFL Prospectus shows the Crows were ranked second in scoring from centre bounce situations, and sixth from scores launched in their forward half of the ground (outside of the 50 metre arc). They found it much harder to score from defensive midfield (12th) and defensive 50 (tenth) possession gains, which I would largely put down to this unbalanced mode of possession as well as their propensity to push the ball into their half of the ground by brute force.
Hampton and Seedsman will also bring balance to Adelaide’s defensive set up, which is populated by plenty of bonafide stoppers, but lacks the rebounding threat most other sides pose. This will force their opposition to be more cognisant of the attacking potential of their defensive half in a way that they haven’t had to in the past. That may mean Adelaide’s ability to score from their defensive half remains the weakest part of their attack, but it should reduce the offensive potency of their opponents.
That’s all great. But the Crows will still be minus the clearances and contested possessions Dangerfield was able to earn at will. Or will they?
Rory Sloane is the best Robin doppelganger in football. The AFL’s official player ratings – which use a fancy algorithm to assign the contribution that a player makes to his team’s score/his team’s role in stopping the opposition scoring – has Sloane ranked as the league’s fifth most influential player, a level he maintained for all of the 2015 season after breaking into the top ten in 2014.
Over his career, Sloane’s work was doubtlessly made easier than it would otherwise be by the presence of Dangerfield (who is ranked third on this list). The problem is, we don’t have a good handle on what Sloane can do as Adelaide’s Batman: he hasn’t played a game that Dangerfield hasn’t played in since Round 18, 2013. At that point, Sloane was an elite player (ranked 27th overall), and ended up winning Adelaide’s best and fairest, but he was in his fourth full year of football, at the age of 23. He was just emerging into the player he has become.
Like Dangerfield, and really any other elite player, Sloane is a unique beast. He is perhaps harder at the contest than his old teammate, but has a stronger outside game by way of disposal. Early in his career, Sloane played a large portion of his game time on the Adelaide wings, with his inside game developing in line with his physical development. Where Dangerfield outclasses him is busting tackles and splitting packs: Sloane’s slighter frame (183 centimetres and 83 kilograms, versus Dangerfield’s 189 centimetres and 92 kilograms) makes him a less threatening proposition as a ground-ball get machine.
His partner in crime in 2016 will be the evergreen Thompson, who is a slightly inferior version of West Coast’s Matt Priddis. Together, the two will shift up a spot on the whiteboard in their opposition’s planning meetings, with the omnipresence of Dangerfield no longer there to shield them from consideration as a tagging target.
So Adelaide have lost the 21 goals, 135 clearances and 350 contested possessions of Dangerfield – and they won’t get them back. But for 2016, and beyond, it just might work out for them.
Macca
Guest
Nick - All I am saying is that Kerridge looks good enough to make the trade a win for the blues - Menzel might be the better player but the BLues got Kerridge 4 GWS players and a better first round draft pick for him - Kerridge doesn't need to be better than Menzel for the trade to be a win for the blues. As for jumping of Menzel - we didn't jump off him when he got traded - we jumped off him when he stopped trying last year.
Nick Croker
Roar Guru
If your argument is simply 'Kerridge looks like he works harder than Menzel' - then you won't get too much disagreement from anyone I don' think. Just think the jury is still out as to whether or not Kerridge is unequivocally a bette player than Menzel - but don't let me tamp your enthusiasm mate. Personally I've never been big on Menzel and if I had to make a definitive prediction I'd say he wont be on a list in 3 years - but hey that's just my hot take! As an aside though isn't it interesting how quickly Blues fans jump off? Menzel who? That D grade SANFL player? Don't let the door hit you on the way out...... ;-)
Macca
Guest
Ryan - "The intensity of a luke warm shower" - so a bit harder than the intensity Menzel played with last year! I did say it was only a NAB cup game but it showed more than "he can find the ball" it showed he is willing to work hard, he layed plenty of tackles and to quote TomC form last night - he ran and ran and ran. Given Murphy and Cripps will slot back in above him - "he can find the ball" and is willing to work is a pretty good resume for the 4th or 5th midfielder. At the very least it must give you some pause for thought.
Ryan Buckland
Expert
The Hawks were also playing with the intensity of a lukewarm shower, Macca. Be wary of reading much more than 'he can find the ball' into it.
Macca
Guest
Nick - I was expecting the argument they aren't playing the same role and I would suggest that it is offset significantly by the fact that Menzel didn't score a goal in the 3 games I mentioned (in fact he scored just 1 goal in his last 6 games with the Blues) - so he wasn't offering anything as a forward and he wasn't having an impact when he pushed into the midfield. "If the Crows stick Menzel in the guts and he’s rubbish then you have a like for like comparison" which goes to my point from earlier - Menzel wanted to push into the midfield at Carlton (and did have some runs through there) but his work rate wasn't up to it and now the Crows have said he simply isn't fit enough to go through the midfield (I would suggest that makes him rubbish at it), Kerridge is highly professional - Menzel has a questionable work ethic. "Menzel will be behind Betts and Charlie Cameron for a spot in the team" I'd agree with this. My over riding point is that Ryan (and others) claimed the blues had a bad trade period while the Crows had a good one and a lot of the criticism revolved around the blues trade for Menzel - now we see that Kerridge looks like a quality player (and he came with 4 players from GWS and an upgrade on the blues first round pick they got from Henderson) and Menzel looks limited and in a battle with Betts and Cameron (and possibly even Milera) simply to get in the side - the trade looks better than people suggest.
Nick Croker
Roar Guru
They are basically different players though right Macca? At this stage everyone sees Menzel as a proper small forward whereas Kerridge has always been mid-fwd and last night played as a genuine inside mid. There's never any guarantee that a player changing position will be outstanding in that new role (I'm thinking a season ago when Collingwood tried to turn Jarryd Blair into a midfielder) but going from mid-fwd to more time on the inside is bound to give a stats boost. Plus you'd hardly call last nights game full-on competitive. I agree Kerridge looked good but given his limited opportunity in 2015 and the new position he was always going to have greater scope for improvement. If the Crows stick Menzel in the guts and he's rubbish then you have a like for like comparison but as it is Menzel will be behind Betts and Charlie Cameron for a spot in the team and even if those two were injured I'd argue there are midfielders that Adelaide might rotate through through the forward line before he necessarily gets a chance.
Macca
Guest
I know it's just a NAB cup game but this is worth thinking about - last night Sam Kerridge had 28 disposals (17 contested) 6 tackles and 6 clearances (might be slightly wrong on the clearances and tackles as I can't find the stats this morning and am working from memory) by comparison in Troy Menzels last 3 games combined for the blues (against Melbourne, GWS and Hawthorn) he had 26 possessions (9 contested), 5 tackles, 0 clearances and 0 goals.
Culsh
Guest
We are a better balanced team in 2016 than we were in 2015. Not necessarily a better team, but better balanced. I am predicting a slight regression this year before a strong 2017-20. Only Scott Thompson to retire during that time and if you ask Crows fans, it is a real debate as to whether he actually makes us a better team or not (noting that two of our best performances last year were rounds 1 and 2 while Thommo was out with a hamstring injury).
Noo
Guest
Interesting points there Ryan, but you've forgotten something, or more appropriately someone. Richard Douglas. Last year we not only didn't have Brad Crouch for the entire year, but Sloane only played 18 games (with a number of those in headgear because of a broken cheekbone) and Douglas played 16 games. Of interest I have found over the past couple of years is who the opposition chose to tag out of the Adelaide midfield, when they 'tag'. Most of the time it was Douglas they would put more effort into trying to stop.
Macca
Guest
It might TOmC - but early doors it looks liek it could eb the age old battle between high talent porr work ethic and average talent hgih work ethic and who gtes greater value (plus the plus got 4 other players and upgraded their first round pick form Geelong). Interesting -no?
Don Freo
Guest
Agree with almost all of that Ben. Considering Thompson's age, this Hawks trio is geriatric. The Hawks trio would drown against all the others, including Adelaide. Mitchell just free wheels outside around half back to receive 8 metre dinky kicks, Hodge is now an outside winger...and very slow. Lewis, without Mitchell and Hodge clearing the way for him, has become a weak second tier player. Lewis may no longer be in Hawthorn's best 22.
TomC
Roar Guru
Of course, it might just be that Carlton are easily impressed.
Macca
Guest
Interesting to see menzel is not yet fit enough to train with the midfield group while Kerridge is impressing everyone with his professionalism - it is a very interesting trade to judge indeed.
Ben
Guest
"Sloane-Thompson-Crouch; that’s still pretty damn good." It is? I'd say it looks very average. Sloane - respect him very much, but playing No.1 midfielder is harder than No.2, he will do well but not up there with the rest of the leagues No.1's. Thompson - is slowing down big time. Good player but limited on what he can do these days. Crouch - unproven. Most teams are going in with a proven No. 3. The fact he is listed in the starting inside core would be a concern. Let's stack up Sloane-Thompson-Crouch with others; Mitchell, Lewis, Hodge Fyfe, Mundy, Neale Kennedy, Hannebery, Parker Boak, Gray, Wines Selwood, Dangerfield, Guthrie Cotchin, Martin, Deledio Ablett, Swallow, Prestia Pendlebury, Treloar, Swan Priddus, Shuey, Masten Doesn't come close to these teams.
Vocans
Guest
The Crows have a fascinating list. A lot of potentially very good players salted with proven ones. As time goes on it will be harder and harder to separate out a permanent 22. It is that even. While the draw is the main hurdle for them this year, a lot will depend on coach, coaches and players gelling as a team. Just as well Walsh brought that team first mentality and it has stayed.
Vocans
Guest
Of course I was forgetting Otten who is nearing a return. He is a proven tall defender but lacks uninterrupted game time. I see Jaensch is on track to return. He was beginning to approach elite standard when he did his knee. With him and Henderson also on the mend the crows have plenty of rebounding defenders on the books, maybe as Macca points out, Collins rather than Doedee would have been the better choice. Even so, I like the look and feel of Doedee. He is an idiosyncratic type of player who might develop into one of those difficult to combat unorthodox ones like Fletcher. Kelly is down as a back but I'd see him as a possible bullocker in the midfield one day, especially after Thompson retires.
Macca
Guest
Kieran Collins instead of Doedee at pick 17 would have been the best option for a tall defender in my opinion
Vocans
Guest
I guess they thought speed was more important, and, as you say, who would you target with any likely success? The injury-plagued Sam Shaw appears to be fit, and Hartigan did improve as 2015 progressed. However, looking to build a side capable of making a GF, you need excellence in all key positions. I think Jenkins would make a great defender but he is unlikely to be leaving the forward line any time soon. Besides, who ever heard of a defender pinch hitting in ruck? There are some young options who are tall, mobile and/or strong, but they are young or have moved over recently from other sports. All of them are some time off AFL.
Don Freo
Guest
Yep win a Brownlow, second the year after... Will probably fall to 3rd best this season. Knockers of Priddis probably don't watch him. Thompson is in a lesser league.
Brendon the 1st
Guest
Your right on Priddis, the worst brownlow winner since Woewodin. Good player but yeah, I'd take Thompson in front of him any day of the week.