The Magpies have an interesting season ahead. To put it bluntly, I think they project as a mid-table team. If I was pushed to be specific, I would say I don’t think they will make finals, they will finish ninth.
With teams around the bottom half of the top eight and just outside the eight like Collingwood, injuries and the fixture will play an integral role in where they finish on the ladder.
However, the implications of missing or making the finals could be vast for this team.
Best 22
Backs: Tom Langdon, Nathan Brown, Marley Williams
Half-backs: Jackson Ramsay, Ben Reid, Jordan De Goey
Centre: Levi Greenwood, Taylor Adams, Steele Sidebottom
Half-forwards: Jack Crisp, Tyson Goldsack, Travis Varcoe
Forwards: Jamie Elliott, Travis Cloke, Jeremy Howe
Followers: Brodie Grundy, Scott Pendlebury, Adam Treloar
Interchange: Dane Swan, Tim Broomhead, Adam Oxley, Jarrod Witts
The make up of the best 22 I have constructed is interesting for a couple of reasons. Firstly, the team as a whole is still pretty young. This is especially true for the nine nominal midfielders of whom only Pendlebury and Swan could be considered veterans.
This bodes well for the future, and for Pendlebury’s hopes of playing in another flag before he retires.
Additionally the team is relatively small across the board. In the backline Nathan Brown will play full back and I have Reid playing centre half back. Certainly his best football has been as a defender and I believe his recent data still projects as being in Collingwood’s best 22.
Perhaps controversially I have not put Jack Frost in this defence. Although he does work reasonably well as a traditional purely defensive back I don’t think he generates enough offensively to push out Reid or Brown as the two key defenders.
The third tall in this line up then is Langdon, who probably plays more of a running half-back role than a third tall per se but at 190cm I think he can certainly fulfill this role and projects as being a more consistent ball-winner in that role than the ageing Alan Toovey.
I also have De Goey playing off half-back despite being classified by some sources as a mid/forward. To compensate I have Oxley on the bench who I found classified as a genuine midfielder but whom I know has played a bit off half-back.
In the forward line the Magpies are strong but again small. Cloke for mine just barely qualifies as in the best 22 in terms of overall value versus all positions, but he would probably have to get picked for structure and balance purposes even if he didn’t.
In the second key forward post I have Tyson Goldsack. I realize he is not a key forward in the real sense but he is too much better than the next option (Jesse White) to leave out, and the players who make up the forward line in the other roles are also among Collingwood’s best players.
Although a spine with Goldsack at centre half forward looks thin, Jamie Elliott and Jeremy Howe fill the small and third tall roles. Neither player is especially large physically but they are excellent aerial players and so this forward line should not lack in terms of contested marking presence.
Brodie Grundy and Jarrod Witts form a great young ruck duo and can also come in and out of the forward line to provide a strong physical presence if required.
Perhaps the players left out of this team, some of whom I have already mentioned, are as significant as the ones I included.
It would potentially be too exhaustive to go through each of those players individually but I would happily invite all those skeptical, disgruntled, bewildered and flat out angry Collingwood fans to tell me why I was wrong to leave them out.
Best midfielder: Scott Pendlebury
Should I even add anything else? There’s not much else to say. Pendlebury has only really had Swan as a rival for best player at the club for a long time now.
Typically the argument among fans has been between Swan as a volume ball-winner and Pendlebury as a more efficient if slightly less prolific possession gatherer. In 2015 they both averaged almost the same number of touches and in 2016 Pendlebury should surpass Swan.
It is worth noting also that while Pendlebury has a reputation as a classy or patient and clean ball user, he is a dominant tackler and clearance player meaning his inside work is as prolific as his outside work.
He is a top ten player in the league and should maintain a presence in the league’s top 50-100 players well into his 30s.
Best defender: Tom Langdon
At 21 years old my modeling suggests Langdon should improve in all major categories in 2016. He’s also 190cm and runs and generates offence well.
There are some candidates in the back line that others will no doubt place ahead of Langdon. Firstly, the two primary key defenders for 2016 should be Ben Reid and Nathan Reid with Jack Frost serving to back those two up. Reid at one time would certainly have taken the mantle for best defender at the club but injuries have probably ensured he will never reach the peak that might once have been expected.
Brown and Frost are serviceable but they simply do not do enough offensively to be considered ahead of Langdon. In the modern game the reality is defenders are responsible for more than just guarding an opponent. Due to the way the ball moves into the forward line and the way players are rotated through various positions, players who play exclusively defence will inevitably be exposed.
Alan Toovey is another player who people will think should be in this team. Physically he and Langdon are similar and as a tackler and spoiler Toovey is probably superior. Statistically however Toovey is in decline and he has never been as effective at winning the ball as Langdon is now.
Langdon projects as a player who can take five or six marks and collect the ball over 20 times a game, he also tackles more than three times a game and spoils the ball the same number of times.
This makes him as dangerous offensively as defensively and his size and speed means he can play on a variety of opponents.
Best forward: Travis Varcoe
Varcoe is an interesting player. I think there’s a perception that he’s over the hill but he will turn 28 during the season, which actually puts him right in the prime of his career. This prime will probably not last much longer, but he should get credit for coming to a new club and having a very good 2015 season.
My projections suggest that he should essentially maintain this form in 2016 and then decline thereafter. This means he will collect around 18 touches a game, take four or five marks and very importantly lay just over four tackles a game.
The Collingwood forward line is for all intents and purposes a fairly strong unit, Jamie Elliott in particular is a strong candidate for the role of best forward at the club. I expect Elliott will improve in 2016, he will no doubt mark in the forward line at a higher rate than Varcoe as well.
In fact you will probably find that Elliot kicks more goals but as an all-round presence – defensively and offensively – I think Varcoe is superior. Moreover I don’t think Elliot wins the ball enough to be a threat as a high half-forward midfield conduit as well as closer to goal – but he will eventually, and projects long term as an outstanding player.
Other candidates in this part of the field are obviously Cloke and newly traded Jeremy Howe. Cloke statistically is in decline albeit still a very effective contested mark and is coming from a once-elite peak.
He is a necessary complement in this forward line because of the type of player he is but is no longer the most effective player in it.
Howe is a curious case. He has a lot of potential and could hurt opposition defences in a variety of ways. It is difficult to project his form though, as he has played as a defender in recent years. In that role he projected as a roughly top 50 defender in the league, which is fairly unremarkable.
As a forward I know many have suggested they want him to replicate the type of role that Jack Gunston performs at Hawthorn. I think however this lofty expectation is probably unrealistic and supporters should expect more along the lines of someone like Andrejis Everitt with a bigger leap.
Biggest strength: Midfield youth and depth
The midfield at Collingwood is virtually as good as it gets. Swan and Pendlebury, despite being at the wrong end of their careers are still truly elite. Sidebottom and Taylor Adams are different in style but both young and provide quality outside and inside respectively.
Add to this mix the unexpected improvement of Jack Crisp, the fact that players like Oxley and D eGoey have been given senior experience, Levi Greenwood was not at full strength in 2015 and the improving ruck combination, and you have the blueprint for long term midfield dominance.
All of this is separate from the trading coupe that has seen the club recruit Adam Treloar. In Treloar the club has managed to find the rare combination of inside/outside class as well as get a young player with senior experience.
Add in finally James Aish as a top 10 draft pick yet to demonstrate his potential and you have to conclude that Collingwood not only have a strong 2016 midfield but a midfield group that looks like it has a long and bright future.
Biggest weakness: Key defensive depth
Since losing Lachlan Keeffe to suspension a lot of pressure now goes onto Reid, Brown and Frost to stay fit and play key defensive roles. Goldsack is often thrown back but probably lacks the size to play on key forwards.
There are players in the VFL who might improve and make a case for themselves however as far as demonstrated quality and experience there are simply not many options at the club for specific key defensive positions.
Brown in particular has done this for the club for a long time now and is among the most reliable key defenders in the league, however injury is always a concern and there is greater pressure on him than perhaps ever before to ensure he is available every week.
Likely wins: 10-12.
Tricky
Guest
It's more a skill thing than style of play - which the jury is out on btw - but clearly Buckley's game plan is not varied and it's like he's hoping for basic skill improvement to justify his game style "rigidity" - all will be well if we kick straight mentality, at least it looks that way from the other side of the fence. Teams like Hawthorn, Sydney, WC, North and even Freo seem to "adjust" their game style depending on opposition, conditions, venue etc. certainly more than Collingwood - not just shuffle personnel to suit the opposition and hope for 75+ % efficiency. This is why there are disgruntled faithful with Buckley, opposition fans don't look that far in and probably can't see the - seemingly- lack of game style flexibility.
Nick Croker
Roar Guru
No doubt mate I hear you. It is especially frustrating when a team looks like they've got the hard stuff covered but don't seem to be able to execute the fundamental skills of the game. On Cloke I do actually think he's in decline but that is a relative term. He has been a very good forward and in an era where traditional key forwards have become less important he has managed to show off the traditional skills of that position (near enough to unmatched as a contested marker - Nick Riewoldt in my opinion is probably his only peer in that regard) and this is not to mention that he's actually demonstrated outstanding endurance and athleticism which is a non-traditional skill for blokes 6'5" and over. I think you're right that poor disposal from mids fundamentally hurts his game but I would argue that it's partly strategy. The game I alluded to against the Tigers late in the year there were so many occasions where the team shovelled a kick out from a pack around the corner and just floated it up high to the forwards and Richmond were just waiting for it and then 2, 3, 4 guys shared it amongst themselves and ran it out at will. I suppose we are saying the same thing my query is just - is that happening because players are poor kicks or because they are a) not spreading from contests well enough to be in a position to use the ball better and b) not neutralising the loose defender. I guess then my focus goes to 'how do you neutralise that spare defender if you're going to allow it?' - and that's where I like Goldsack, Varcoe even Elliot when he's switched on can create pressure in the forward line. Of course perhaps I'm thinking too hard about it. Just get some guys who kick better and it's probably solved like you say. Has there been any progress on cloning Pendlebury.... ?
Tricky
Guest
Thanks Nick, I guess what I'm eluding to is that this team played better than their list suggested in the first half of the year and disappointingly less so in the 2nd half. You've got to remember that this young team haven't spent the years together to gel and really know and play for each other like the young team of 07 to 11 or a current Hawthorn. And on Cloke, so many of our supporters bag him because it - looks like- he's lost form and maybe so but that is a (partly) result of poor delivery (or disposal efficiency) So in reality this team needs to be playing better than the list suggests (going at 70+% efficiency) - for the whole season - to make a path to finals. Even Bucks himself said they've got grunt covered (in part clearances as you suggest) but the fundamentals (skills) are not there yet. Therein I and other supporters ask why? Being paid footballers that should be covered - no arguments and therein lies the frustration of us the followers.
Nick Croker
Roar Guru
I guess the only thing is I'm not trying predict the team that will play but putting together my quantitative assessment of who I personally think the best 22 is. Champion Data didn't list DeGoey as an out and out midfielder so that's why I had him off half back but certainly there's flexibility with the group as a whole in terms of players who can play midfield. Aish is one those players too but I have him just outside the best 22 overall. He could easily come in for the next best midfielder- maybe Greenwood as you say - and it wouldnt make that much difference to the teams output overall.
Nick Croker
Roar Guru
I guess my feeling as I've said is just that Moore for all intents and purposes is not officially a lock for best 22. After all this is only his second season. Plus I've always liked the all around versatility that Goldsack brings to the team. Probably better suited for for a third tall role though. I mean I wouldn't be unhappy with Moore in the team and from 2017 onwards I'd say he'll be one of the better key forwards in the comp.
c
Guest
Matty Scharenburg should be in his 3rd year by now. Keeffe...I gues it's all a case of they planned for tall backs but nothing really ever goes to plan.
Jason
Guest
Best 22 Backs: Tom Langdon, Nathan Brown, Marley Williams Half-backs: Jackson Ramsay, Ben Reid, James Aish Centre: Jordan De Goey, Taylor Adams, Steele Sidebottom Half-forwards: Jack Crisp, Travis Cloke, Travis Varcoe Forwards: Jamie Elliott, Darcy Moore, Jeremy Howe Followers: Brodie Grundy, Scott Pendlebury, Adam Treloar Interchange: Dane Swan, Tim Broomhead, Tom Phillips, Jarrod Witts De Goey has spent all pre season training as a midfielder. This kid is basically a bigger, stronger version of Treloar with even more inside ability, and will become our second best midfielder behind Pendles pretty soon. The only reason he didn't play more midfield last year was lack of tank. This kid is 100% a midfielder. Aish on the other hand has been told to prepare to play defence. With his high footy IQ and kicking skills, I don't see how he doesn't slot in on that HBF in place of De Goey. Who should be in the midfield in place of Greenwood. We have enough hard ball winners with Treloar's addition and the likely continued development of players like Crisp, Adams and De Goey that we don't need the one dimensional Greenwood with his poor disposal in the team. He should be depth in case of injuries. Darcy Moore will be given an opportunity in the forward line. There's a pretty significant difference in this kids body right now compared to last season, not only is he much bigger, he's grown a few cms. If he does go out of the side, I fully expect to see Reid down forward assuming he is fit, and Brown and Frost or possibly Marsh holding down key back roles. Langdon, Aish, Williams and Ramsey can provide plenty of rebound. There's almost always one bolter new draftee that pushes his way into R1 contention via good NAB Cup performances. Phillips is my pick.
Paul
Guest
A fair assessment relative to the paramaters that were used. I would, however, make selections based a little bit more on untapped potential. On this basis, Moore and Cox are walk up starts. They would come in at the expense of Goldsack and Witts. Other than that, we're agreed.
Nick Croker
Roar Guru
Ha cheers mate that's good of you to say - as I say I'm taking a different approach to putting together these 22s. My bent is quantitative analysis - obviously I haven't revealed a lot of the actual numerical data that goes in to choosing the players, that's mostly just because I think it would be boring for people to read but then without 'seeing behind the curtain ' some people probably think I'm just choosing names out of hat. Having said that people are bound to disagree whether they have access to the way I'm crunching data or not. I want to be consistent in sticking by my quantitative analysis, not just because I think it makes sense and gives me an objective way to look at players but also because if I just abandoned it because it gave me a slightly off centre result (like Goldsack at CHF over Moore) then what would be the point of doing it at all? But as I say I want people to question it - it would be fairly boring if we all agreed - but certainly if people do disagree I would encourage them to tell me why because if I understand their rationale then who knows I might even be convinced I'm wrong ;-)
mattyb
Guest
Sammy has obviously overlooked or chosen to ignore the entire paragraph and four adjectives you took the time to write inviting any feedback from Collingwood supporters in regards to their thoughts on players who missed out. Your response is more than fair. Nick,these reviews of yours are certainly in-depth and thorough and make a wonderful change from some of the tedious and repetitive previews we are often given at this time of year. I very much look forward to the continuation of your series and congratulate and thank you for the large amounts of time and effort you have quite obviously put into your research and analysis.
Nick Croker
Roar Guru
I think you are right about the disposal efficiency but I would not necessarily chalk that up to the team having a bunch of players that are truly bad kicks. The few times I saw Collingwood play live last year - they lost for a start - but the way they seemed to play was to try and orchestrate a spare player up around the contest on the ball while letting the opposition play their spare in defence. This meant Collingwood won a fair bit of the ball and were competitive if not dominant in terms of clearances. Sometimes those clearances were rushed, guys like Taylor Adams do genuinely seem to poor average kicks for league football. But often times it was the case that they would win the ball and drive it long to Cloke or Moore who were double teamed and then outnumbered at ground level. There was a game late in the year where they were smashed by the Tigers where this was especially evident. Anyway all of this is to say that sometimes I thought the guy kicking the ball wasn't necessarily a terrible kick but was putting the ball into a situation where the opposition was more than likely to render his kick ineffective. So in summary my feeling is yes you're right they need to hit targets - especially in the forward line (around the ground kicking doesn't seem too bad) more often - but that if they are going to persist with a strategy where their key forwards are often outnumbered they will always have this problem with direct delivery to their forwards. Because Cloke - even though he has flaws - is still an outstanding one on one contested mark I think you either shift strategy to get him more one on one opportunities (probably means playing him further from goal) or you hope he can render situations where he's outnumbered neutral and then let smaller guys come in to play after you hold the ball in the forward line.
Nick Croker
Roar Guru
Ah jeez mate yeh bloody oath kiddin' me self! Great input.....
Nick Croker
Roar Guru
Haha well said Don - I think he looks good too, and because the next key position sized player with any experience is Jesse White he will play obviously - I just don't think this is the year that he's clearly best 22 and would like to see the Pies go small to see how that could create mismatches.
Sammy
Guest
You're kidding yourself mate. No Darcy Moore! Get with it!
Tricky
Guest
Nick, you forgot to mention the deplorable disposal efficiency that this team possesses. When they were top 4 in the first half of the season their disposal was very good somewhere in the 70+ % and Cloke was kicking more goals purely by weight of numbers (even though less than 50% conversion but then how many forwards with 60 + % conversion?) than he was in the last half of the season because of wait for it - good delivery or in other words good disposal efficiency. Sure not his 2010 -11 form but the numbers were better than good. Cloke is still a good forward but what makes him look bad are the blokes up the field with their high school footy type delivery and for the most part that would be your "as good as it gets midfield". Unfortunately this team needs to sustain a whole season of playing above themselves for any chance of finals.(read 70+ % disposal efficiency) I'm afraid my beloved Pies are not heading north of their current ladder position this year even though many have them around about the 8 and some even top 4 (Quote Rohan Connelly on 3AW : Age columnist). For the most part they're still too inexperienced to push the other hopefuls out of the 8- this might be the angry footy gods who are punishing Eddie for his potential dynasty dismantle.
Don Freo
Guest
I reckon that's a fair call Nick. I will suggest that Darcy Moore is already the second best tall forward to Cloke...maybe, by the end of the season, he'll be the best. Moore is a gun ...and a Victorian.
Nick Croker
Roar Guru
How about you guys tell me who the best fwd, mid and def are then? After all it's pretty easy to just say 'wrong' and walk off. I've obviously outlined my rationale so you know what I think - and do your best to actually back it up. Wait let me guess the best fwd is just the one that kicks the most goals.... ;-)
Wowee
Guest
truly rubbish. i give you credit for effort but this stuff is unreadable. best forward is varcoe? ludicrous.
Stephanie
Guest
I don't care what people say about Collingwood's prospects for 2016 providing it is rational and unbiased, but this opinion is flawed and unbalanced, and the best-22 is wrong.
Stephanie
Guest
I don't care what people say about Collingwood's prospects for 2016 providing it is rational and unbiased, but this opinion is flawed and unbalanced, and the best-22 is way off.