2016 NRL preview series: Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs

After a weekend full of NRL trial action we return today with the latest in our ongoing series of NRL team previews. Today we reach the Bulldogs, a team who have the largest forward pack in the game but insist on using their forwards as pseudo halfbacks and their halfback, well, not much in 2015.

2015 in Review – Big men passing
The Bulldogs were one of the most confounding teams in the NRL in 2015. With one of the largest forward packs in NRL history the team should have simply steamrolled the opposition. Which they did, some of the time. At other times though the team seemed obsessed with dink and dunk passing between their big men rather than simply owning the middle third.

FULL 2016 NRL PREVIEW SERIES

To be fair the dink and dunk strategy was still good enough to finish fifth on the ladder and take them to week two of the finals before they were annihilated by a second half surge from the minor premier Roosters.

In the end it was a somewhat lacklustre end to a somewhat lacklustre season, what Stringer Bell from the Wire might have called a 40 degree day.

Offseason story – On the centre-go-round
A relatively quiet offseason for the Bulldogs whose only notable piece of business over the summer was participating in the great centre-go-round of 2015 as seven elite, under-contract centres switched teams. For their part the Bulldogs released Tim Lafai to accommodate Will Hopoate, who of course began his career under Des Hasler at the Sea Eagles in 2010 before winning a premiership in 2011.

Roster management

2016 Gains: Brad Abbey, Craig Garvey, Will Hopoate

2016 Losses: Damien Cook, Herman Ese’ese, Trent Hodkinson, Antonio Kaufusi, Tim Lafai, Frank Pritchard, Corey Thompson

Hopoate is the main acquisition with highly-rated fullback prospect Brad Abbey unlikely to get a run unless there are injuries or State of Origin call-ups, and Craig Garvey from the Dragons expected to be a backup for Michael Lichaa.

But is Hopoate an actual upgrade on the man he is effectively replacing, Tim Lafai? The statistics suggest not really. When playing as a centre in 2015, Hopoate ran the ball for more metres than Lafai (125m per game compared to 79m) but aside from that was essentially on par with him.

The players recorded largely similar tries, assists, line breaks and line break assists but Hopoate was arguably the less dangerous player with fewer tackle breaks per game and almost no offloads. Hopoate has arguably the higher upside potential than Lafai but it remains a considerable gamble given the salary that Hopoate is reported to earn.

On the other side of the ledger in addition to Lafai, the team has lost two other first grade regulars in Trent Hodkinson and Frank Pritchard. While Pritchard was clearly at the tail end of his NRL career and was a clear candidate for a Super League golden handshake, allowing Hodkinson to walk is a far more interesting decision.

In essence it is as much about gambling on Moses Mbye as it is about Hodkinson himself. The club is reported to be so scarred by the 2004 decision to allow Johnathan Thurston, who turned out to be pretty good at rugby league, to leave that they simply couldn’t countenance allowing Mbye to similarly depart with the risk that he too could become a superstar for someone else.

Beyond those two the team is allowing a number of solid first grade backups to depart as well with Antonio Kaufusi, Corey Thompson, Damian Cook and Herman Ese’ese all featuring at least once in 2015. .

Likely Lineup
1. Brett Morris,
2. Curtis Rona,
3. Josh Morris,
4. Will Hopoate
5. Sam Perrett,
6. Josh Reynolds,
7. Moses Mbye,
8. James Graham
9. Michael Lichaa
10. Aiden Tolman
11. Josh Jackson
12. Tony Williams
13. Greg Eastwood

14. Sam Kasiano
15. David Klemmer
16. Shaun Lane
17. Tim Browne.

The outside backs essentially pick themselves with the only change to last year being Hopoate replacing Lafai. This is an experienced, talented backline and if the forwards and halves do their job there is little doubt that these five will shine.

So on to the forwards and with apologies to the Roosters and Cowboys, the Bulldogs are my vote for the strongest pack in the competition.

Start with their prop rotation, which is undoubtedly the best in the league. The rotation features two skilful, big minute props to start the game in Graham and Tolman and then backs those two up with the largest human outside the NFL on the planet in Sam Kasiano and a ferocious junkyard dog of a player in David Klemmer. No team comes close to bringing that much front row talent off the bench.

The only question is how to maximise those four excellent front row forwards. With 160 minutes to share in the front row coach Des Hasler will need to balance the remarkable endurance of Tolman and Graham, who can both play 60 to 65 minutes with the impact of Kasiano and Klemmer, both of whom can operate effectively for 40 odd minutes in their own right. .

The back row is just as strong as the front with NSW representative Josh Jackson, Kiwi regular Greg Eastwood and former Australian player Tony Williams, who is probably the weakest of the starting players but retains the ability to be just flat out bigger, faster and more agile than anyone who might try to tackle him on the edge. Williams will however immediately face pressure to retain his starting spot from up and comer Shaun Lane who played very well in a handful of games in 2015 and looks likely to take a major leap in 2016.

One wonders whether the team genuinely needs to select a four forward bench as I have indicated here (and which reflects the general consensus on the team’s likely line-up) or if there is a case to inject a utility player with Tim Browne the obvious candidate to miss out. Young hooker Michael Lichaa impressed in his first season at the club, regularly playing 80 minutes however it could be argued that he might be more effective at 60 to 65 minutes than he is at 80.

Either way all those forwards are good for nought if the halves can’t do their job and in 2015 the consensus was that it was that which held the team back.

There is something of a contradiction at work here. While the team did score plenty of points at the same time there was a palpable sense that the halves couldn’t create scoring opportunities when they were needed. Indeed between them Reynolds, Hodkinson and Mbye recorded only 29 try assists combined, which is the same number that Johnathan Thurston had by himself.

But statistics don’t tell the whole story and a case can be made that the problem for the Bulldogs wasn’t a lack of quality but rather too many players, not enough positions. There is an old saying in the NFL that if you have two quarterbacks you really have no quarterback. It’s relevant here because in 2015 Des Hasler clearly had three players for two jobs and suffered from a Hamlet-esque inability to decide what to do about it.

Both Reynolds and Mbye were tried in different roles whether off the bench in Reynolds case or in the centres in Mbye’s. Neither of those moves worked particularly effectively and in the end it took a season-ending injury to Hodkinson to take the decision out of Hasler’s hands.

The good news on that front is that for better or worse Hodkinson has departed and the team is now very much in the hands of Mbye and Reynolds. So the next question is: can Mbye live up to the billing?

Player to watch – Michael Lichaa
While a lot of attention will be correctly paid to the halves, young hooker Michael Lichaa is also in line for a fascinating season.

A junior representative regular, Lichaa debuted for the Sharks in 2014, splitting his 15 appearances between the bench and starting hooker role. After playing no more than 60 minutes and never making more than 36 tackles during that debut season, Lichaa was then thrust into a far more demanding 80-minute role in 2015 for the Dogs. Not only did he stay on the field for the full 80 in the majority of his 21 games in 2015, he also significantly upped his defence, averaging nearly 45 tackles per game.

Indeed, by the end of the season Lichaa was probably a little underrated due to the out-of-this-world season from his predecessor, and replacement at the Sharks, Michael Ennis. Had Ennis slumped at the Sharks it is entirely possible that the narrative on Lichaa would have been that he was a young player performing very well in his first full season at a challenging position. However as it was he became simply Not Mick Ennis.

In 2016 those comparisons are likely to recede a little as Lichaa improves and as Ennis becomes a little less prolific, if only because the Sharks now have two genuine playmaking halves to take some of that burden from him.

As we’ve discussed the Bulldogs’ forward pack is outstanding and the backline is stacked to the proverbial with talent and as much as the halves are vital, Lichaa, who will touch the ball upwards of a hundred times a game, will have every opportunity to make an impact in 2016.

Predicted finish – Make the eight
With this squad on paper it is honestly hard to see how this team doesn’t make the top four and contends for a grand final appearance. But then again it’s virtually the same team as last year and that team backed into the finals, edged past the Dragons and went out with a whimper in the second week.

So in the end I’ve hedged and slotted them into one of the lower finals positions but if Mbye and Lichaa flourish and Reynolds gets back to his best then top four is well and truly on the cards.

Follow Lachlan on Twitter @mrsports83