2016 NRL preview series: Sydney Roosters

With 14 teams completed we are very much in the home stretch of the NRL preview series now with only last year’s top-four finishers remaining. Today we look at the Roosters, a team for whom a preliminary final exit was actually a disappointment.

2015 in review – Minor premiership and out
Everything you need to know about the incredible run the Roosters have enjoyed over the last three seasons can be explained by the fact that the team was rightly disappointed to be eliminated in the preliminary final after capturing a third consecutive minor premiership.

The Roosters were superb virtually all season, with only a four-game losing streak in April blemishing an otherwise excellent season. In fact once they righted the ship after those early losses, the team did not lose back-to-back games again until they were disappointingly eliminated from the finals in straight sets.

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Few teams would have cause to be so dissatisfied with a season such as that but for the Roosters it represents a missed opportunity as the salary cap begins to bite on a squad that was truly remarkable for the last three years.

Offseason story – Australia Day
The salacious details have been well reported so there is no need to explore them any further here. However the ramifications of Mitchell Pearce’s poor decision making have well and truly overshadowed the team’s preparations for the season.

With his halves partner James Maloney departing, Pearce was supposed to be the mentoring figure for up and coming half Jackson Hastings while the team also incorporated an inexperienced fullback in Blake Ferguson. Now Hastings and offseason recruit Jayden Nikorima, who was impressive in his Roosters debut in the World Club Challenge, will have to develop an all new combination on the fly.

At the time of writing Pearce’s punishment is yet to be decided, but it goes without saying that the longer he is out of the game the harder it becomes for the Roosters to succeed.

Roster management

2016 Gains: Joe Burgess, Dale Copley, Mitchell Frei, Ian Henderson, Jayden Nikorima

2016 Losses: Michael Jennings, James Maloney, Suaia Matagi, Matt McIlwrick, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck

Earlier in this preview series I remarked on the excellent recruitment of the Warriors, Eels and Sharks and sadly for the Roosters they represent a significant part of the other side of the equation for each of those teams.

Losing James Maloney, a deeply underrated, if defensively challenged, half to the Sharks was a nasty body blow. But losing Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, a player they had groomed as Anthony Minichello’s replacement for a number of years, was a Mike Tyson right hook. Both players were outstanding in 2015 and their departure along with the absence of Pearce represents a significant fracture in the team’s spine.

As if losing their five-eighth and fullback wasn’t enough the team also lost NSW Origin centre Michael Jennings, apparently because they could no longer fit him under the salary cap while also retaining other key players. This came as a tremendous surprise to many Roosters haters who have always assumed that the team was somehow immune to salary cap pressures (not a view I subscribe to for the record).

Regardless of the reason why Jennings departed for the Eels he will be a big loss to the team and while the player they brought in as cover, Dale Copley, is a fine player one does not simply replace an Origin centre overnight.

In addition to Copley the team has also brought in Jayden Nikorima and well regarded English winger Joe Burgess who will both immediately join the first choice starting line up along with Mitchell Frei and Ian Henderson. The club will be hoping these two quickly revert to backup roles.

Likely lineup
1. Blake Ferguson
2. Joe Burgess
3. Dale Copley
4. Shaun Kenny-Dowall
5. Daniel Tupou
6. Jayden Nikorima
7. Jackson Hastings
8. Kane Evans
9. Jake Friend
10. Dylan Napa
11. Mitch Aubusson
12. Aidan Guerra
13. Isaac Liu.

14. Ian Henderson
15. Sio Siua Taukeiaho
16. Kane Evans
17. Vincent Leiluai

The first thing to say is that the above will likely be the team that starts the season but the forward pack in particular is far from full strength. The Roosters will definitely start the season without the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juggernaut_(comics)juggernaut Jared Warea-Hargreaves and are also likely to be missing NSW Origin representative Boyd Cordner. Both will return to the starting line-up eventually, and assuming both can make their return at full strength this will again be a forward pack to be afraid of.

Earlier this week I dubbed the Bulldogs’ forward pack the best in the competition but boy oh boy is this mob close. Rugby league is a collision sport and few teams bring more aggression to the collision than the Roosters.

Whether it is Warea-Hargreaves, who changed the result of several games with his second-half stints in 2015, to young bench tyros like Kane Evans and Sio Siua Taukeiaho no team has the depth of hard-running power, eight through 17, that the Roosters possess when at full strength. Indeed they are the only team for whom the absence of Warea-Hargreaves and Cordner is remotely manageable.

The backline may be diminished but the forward pack has lost little once those two return.

But about that backline: sad face.

Start with fullback where Tuivasa-Sheck was extraordinary in 2015 leading the competition in both metres gained per game and tackle breaks while scoring 12 tries and creating another ten. To say he will be missed is an understatement.

Tuivasa-Sheck’s replacement at least initially will be former Raider, Shark and rooftop drinker Blake Ferguson. Though a potent ball runner it remains to be seen if Ferguson has the positional sense and poise to play at fullback. However if he does adjust quickly to the mental requirements of the role he certainly has all the physical tools to be a very good fullback.

Beyond Ferguson the team also has ridiculously promising junior Latrell Mitchell who, like Nikorima, impressed at the World Club Challenge.

In the halves the likely combination to start the season will see Jackson Hastings paired with Nikorima. Hastings, who played mostly off the bench in 2015, also made five appearances at halfback and did not look out of place. Though originally slated to start 2015 as the left side half and play a complementary role to Mitchell Pearce, Hastings will now likely need to take on an expanded role in Pearce’s likely absence.

This is a huge ask of a player who has more years on this good green earth than he does NRL games experience. For all the criticism of Pearce at State of Origin level the reason he gets selected for NSW is because he is an excellent NRL halfback with a strong kicking and passing game and rock solid defence. Even if Hastings and Nikorima excel one does not simply replace 200 games of NRL experience.

Player to watch – Jake Friend
When three out of four players in a team’s spine are no longer available the focus naturally shifts to the remaining member of that quartet. With Tuivasa-Sheck, Maloney and Pearce all unavailable Jake Friend will need to take on more responsibility for the Roosters in 2016.

After outstanding seasons in 2013 and 2014 (until he got injured in the preliminary final loss to the Rabbitohs) Friend began 2015 on the injured list and had a solid but not spectacular season. His try and line break assists dropped from 2014 to 2015 and while he ran the ball fractionally more, he actually made less metres overall.

However Friend clearly has the ability to be an elite hooker, and indeed probably was one of the best hookers in the game in 2013 and 2014. With a forward pack that starts the season undermanned, and a very inexperienced halves, pairing much will depend on whether Friend can raise his game while Hastings, Nikorima and Ferguson find their feet.

Predicted finish – Fringe of the eight
When the team was only losing Tuivasa-Sheck and Maloney I still had them making the top four. I reasoned that the forwards were too good and the backs had too much class overall to not see this team win almost as many games as 2015.

When they were losing Tuivasa-Sheck, Maloney and Jennings I had them making the eight but not quite locked into the top four. Copley is a fine player but Jennings is not an Origin centre by accident.

But with Pearce out indefinitely, Cordner out to start the season, Warea-Hargreaves to possibly miss the whole first half of the year and those other three players gone it is hard not to put this team in a scrap just to make the eight.

To be abundantly clear putting them in the fringe of the eight tier still reflects my belief that the Roosters are a very good team and could well make the eight or even the top four. However with all the obstacles they will now need to overcome it is more likely that they will be battling away with teams like the Raiders, Sea Eagles, Panthers and Eels for the sixth to 11th spots.