The poor old Dons.
With James Hird gone at the end of last season and John Worsfold appointed, some good recruits welcomed to the club via trade and free agency, two top six picks in the AFL draft, plus another couple in the top 30, things were looking up for Essendon.
Bomber fans were entitled to be using Taylor Swift’s Out of the Woods as their anthem through summer.
However, the Court of Arbitration for Sport was in no mood to “shake it off” when it came to the WADA appeal against the Essendon 34, handing down a suspension that will see 12 currently listed Bombers miss season 2016.
Tom Bellchambers, Travis Colyer, Dyson Heppell, Michael Hibberd, Heath Hocking Cale Hooker, Ben Howlett, Michael Hurley, David Myers, Tayte Pears, Brent Stanton, and captain Jobe Watson will all be on the sidelines.
By my reckoning, ten of the suspended 12 were going to be a part of Essendon’s best 22 this season, with seven of them being in their most important ten players.
Of course, the Dons were afforded the chance to sign up to ten previously AFL-listed players as top-ups, and they have taken that chance, using all 10 places.
Let’s have a look at the side they’ve been able to cobble together for this season:
| B: | Mark Baguley | Mitch Brown | James Gwilt | |
| HB: | Martin Gleeson | Nathan Grima | Courtenay Dempsey | |
| C: | Brendon Goddard | David Zaharakis | Jonathan Simpkin | |
| HF: | Ryan Crowley | Sam Grimley | Adam Cooney | |
| F: | Nick Kommer | Joe Daniher | Matthew Stokes | |
| Foll: | Matthew Leuenberger | Craig Bird | Zach Merrett | |
| Int: | Shaun McKernan | Orazio Fantasia | Darcy Parish | Aaron Francis |
| Em: | Shaun Edwards | Michael Hartley | James Kelly |
Now, this would not be the best side we’ve ever seen grace an AFL field, but it’s hardly the worst either.
The backline isn’t bad for what is sure to be a bottom four side, and there is at least some run there. Martin Gleeson will improve again, Courtenay Dempsey has set himself for a career-best season and James Gwilt will provide his share of heart attacks for Bomber fans, but all three at least all know how to run and carry the ball, which is important in an age where rebound from defence is so crucial.
Mitch Brown is back in the big leagues after a strong year at VFL level, and will perform soundly down back. Nathan Grima will be the best player down there if he can get his body right, sure to provide strength and purpose. Mark Baguley will play the lock-down role. All of these three can take a grab too.
Michael Hartley is ready to play senior football in a key defensive post if he gets his chance, and Matt Dea is a top-up player that is a handy back-up, having played 31 games at Richmond. He was always half a step behind AFL level, but his courage is unquestioned. Ultimately, the backline is limited but balanced.
The midfield was going to be a problem area for the Dons at full strength, and now they’ve lost prime movers like Watson, Heppell and Stanton, plus the speed of Colyer. The lack of A-grade talent is going to be exposed over the course of a long year.
Brendon Goddard will shoulder huge responsibility as the best and most experienced player, particularly with the captaincy on his shoulders. He needs support from David Zaharakis, whose career hasn’t gone the places that most thought or hoped it would. Zach Merrett is the other Bomber with some class, and is capable of entering the upper echelon of players throughout this season. He’s the one to watch.
A host of players who made their name at other clubs will provide the most robust support for the above trio – ex-Dog and one time Brownlow medallist Adam Cooney, ex-Swan Craig Bird, ex-Docker Ryan Crowley, ex-Hawk Jonothan Simpkin, and ex-Cats Matthew Stokes and James Kelly, along with a ruck division led by ex-Lion Matthew Leuenberger and ex-Dee Mark Jamar.
That’s a lot of exes. We know which side they’d choose in a game of noughts and crosses.
Most of these players are unlikely to play every game, given age, limited preparations or historical injury concerns, but they’ll provide some ballast through the year. Essendon’s list management strategy through this crisis hasn’t been for everyone (including myself), but we can see where they’re coming from.
Despite all of their limitations, the biggest problem when we look at the Bombers this year is the glaring lack of avenues to goal.
Of the players available to them, only Joe Daniher kicked more than 10 goals at AFL level last year. It’s not a recipe for success.
But Daniher continues to grow as a footballer, and while his stats from 2015 look remarkably similar to 2014, he was playing in a far worse side. Four times he kicked three or more goals last season, including bags of five and six and Essendon won each time. He’s going to become the player the good judges thought he would be.
Shaun McKernan and Sam Grimley will battle valiantly to provide Daniher with some tall support, and a host of younger players will have to rotate through with the likes of Stokes and Cooney to provide the ground-level pressure in the forward half, and try to manufacture the odd goal.
The forward line has been ugly for some time anyway, but now it’s going to struggle to post a winning score, and it’s not as if the midfield will be pumping it in to begin with.
The Bombers averaged just shy of 72 points a game last season. For context, Carlton, they of the horrible, coach-sacking year, averaged a tick over 69. The Dons are going to go backwards from their number, and if they can average 60 points a game it should be seen as a success.
It seems every year now there’s talk of a team that will go winless, and many are thinking Essendon are that club. History says it just doesn’t happen.
They’ll set themselves for the winnable games, and pinch a few along the way. The better sides may start resting players against them later in the season, which may open the door as well.
Yes, there are going to be some thumpings, and the year will be long, but a three- or four-win season is within their grasp.
Predicted ladder spread: 16th-18th
Predicted finish: 18th
Best and fairest: Brendon Goddard
Leading goalkicker: Joe Daniher
All-Australian potential: None
Rising Star candidates: Darcy Parish, Aaron Francis
Aransan
Guest
Dad's Army will do OK, the older top-up players have done so many pre-seasons they don't need to build up their strength and endurance any further and they won't take long to establish their fitness base for the season. The younger top-up players are desperate to re-establish their careers. There is a lack of elite talent but the top-up players will help to create an environment and consistency that will greatly assist the development of the younger players on Essendon's list.
Don Freo
Guest
Adrian, Mitch Brown played very well in the VFL last season and, most likely, would have played very well in the AFL...if he was on a list. The quality of Geelong's team was the reason his career stalled. He is on a list now and he has made a very sound start. You can't do more than step up when you get a chance.
Don Freo
Guest
Losing Goddard would have an impact because he's really good. Losing Murphy, Gibbs or Kreuzer won't have much impact because THEY don't have much impact. So, yes Macca, losing Goddard would have a greater impact...just not for the reasons you believe.
Aransan
Guest
I don't think Sundays game meant very much at all from a result point of view. Worsfold's press conference after the game is fairly illuminating: http://www.essendonfc.com.au/video/2016-02-28/btv-john-worsfold-media-conference-february-28-2016 The challenge for both Carlton and Essendon this year is to provide the best possible environment for developing their young players. It is not sensible to just pump games into young players for the sake of it, they need to be part of a culture which is being as competitive as possible for as long as possible. Expect young players to be rotated in and out of the side, Weitering and Parish are likely to be two exceptions to that. Although the wooden spoon is attractive in terms of potential draft picks, any team that aims so low will do a great disservice to their young players.
Macca
Guest
PD - the blues were missing 10-12 of their best 22 as well and don't have any top up players at all. Before the game the bookies had the bombers as favorites and after the game Worsfold admitted that on paper the bombers were expected to win because they had the more experienced side. The blues at full strength this year aren't going to win too many games, why do you expect them to win with half a side and their best 4 players out? Do you also think it's a coincidence that the blues had just 21 rotations in the first half and Essendon got the big break in the back end of the second quarter? I think I and the back room boys are more aware of where our list is than you - just saying...
Anthony Maguire
Guest
Certainly. Don't think they amount to much (barring Gazza and Tom Lynch). Remind me in some ways of the Bad News Bears.
AR
Guest
It's not necessarily a dead-last 22, but it's the back end of the season that will get them. A rag tag bunch of fill-ins, some semi-retired, with half a pre-season's fitness, and nothing to play for, and guaranteed injuries...it'll get ugly towards the end.
KingKongBundy
Guest
I was looking at the fixtures the other night and think the bombers can win up to 8 games this year if there lucky. Does anyone think the bombers has a chance against gold coast in round one?
Pumping Dougie
Guest
Excellent - extend his contract. That lad has potential.
Rabaul
Guest
I agree with your assessment that Essendon will most likely finish 16-18. Could be a great tussle with Carlton for 18th. However, I think that there are a couple of other players that will push heavily to be included - Langford (was really good Sunday v Carlton) as were Tipunwuti, Jackson Merrett, Hartley and Michael, then there is Laverde who has been in great form and will play this week against Geelong. Of those in your team I think Kommer will struggle this year as he has missed 2 years through injury and some of the above named are ahead of him on current form. Although they were only playing Carlton last NAB game, this week against Geelong could be a better guide even though there will be 9 different names in the team as they rotate their players given it's only a 6 day break, but some pretty good inclusions (minus Stokes and Kelly).
Pumping Dougie
Guest
Macca, I guess you'll try to somehow dismiss Watson, Heppell, Hurley, Hooker, etc. because they are suspended. I assume that means you won't make any excuses if Carlton players get suspended this year. We all know NAB Cup games are Mickey Mouse, but losing to a club that has been decimated with 10-12 of their best players suspended and 6 of their relief players not yet fit enough for selection, is not a great way to start off your coaching career and build faith among your players, staff and supporters in your abilities. Bolton will shrug this off, but the backroom Carlton Boys will start whispering if Carlton lose to Essendon in the real deal, in round six. Just saying ...
Pumping Dougie
Guest
Perhaps that's Carlton's strategy with Liam Jones, Aransan. Hopefully they give him a contract extension.
macca
Guest
One of his better games for the blues PD!! ;)
Pumping Dougie
Guest
Not Justin Clarke - he's a highly talented, promising player for Brisbane (although he just got injured).
macca
Guest
PD - 10-12 of their best players available for this year? Could you name them? And the blues were missing 7 of their 4 best player, 7 of their guaranteed best 22, another 4 players who are on the fringe and would be n line to replace the 7 and only played 4 of their best 22 for a half a game each - so a bit more than their inside mids.
Anthony Maguire
Guest
You knew what he meant. I'll lay it on the line and say those two will be top 20 players of the comp in years to come.
Pumping Dougie
Guest
Macca, how did Liam Jones go?
Pumping Dougie
Guest
Tom M, did you really just say Essendon were only missing 2 or 3 of their best players? Try 10-12 of their best plus 6 of their top-up players. They fielded a VFL strength team. Oh but Macca says Carlton were missing their inside mids - I admit I overlooked that vitally relevant point. ?
Emre Kruse
Roar Rookie
He was also plagued with a shoulder injury throughout those years and was much younger, not to mention attempting to break into the third best side this century. I'd at least give him a couple of months before writing him off. Alternatively, we could all just sit back in our armchairs and laugh about how crap Chris Judd was in his last couple of seasons.
macca
Guest
Redb - "Even Essendon coach John Worsfold conceded after the match that on paper it could have been anticipated his side should win. "Looking at the youth versus experience you would have thought that Essendon should win the game"