What difference will the NRL's new interchange rules make?

With the NRL reducing interchanges from ten to eight per game in 2016, I decided to pull out my crystal ball and make my predictions as to what differences we will see this season.

Injuries
Todd Greenberg has claimed the reduction will reduce the risk of collision injuries during games.

NRL players are finely tuned machines, built to repeatedly produce as much force in as short a period of time as possible, such as during a tackle or sprint.

While there is bound to be some fluctuation of injuries from year to year, and there may well be fewer collision injuries this year, two fewer interchanges per match is not likely to take away from the overall impact of collisions.

Outside backs to become extra forwards
Outside backs have been making supporting runs for many years now, with players like Sam Perrett of the Bulldogs particularly adept at helping their forward packs get back in position and have a breather early in sets, especially after deep kicks by the opposition.

This year we will see many of the bigger outside backs, such as Semi Radradra and Jorge Taufua, being used as extra forwards more so than they were in 2015.

In order to preserve the strength and power of the forwards in the middle of the field while defending, many teams will use an outside back to take the final hit up of a set. This outside back is likely to be from the opposite side of the field to where the final attacking backline play of the set will be run, such as the left winger taking a hit up in the opponents’ 20-metre line on the fourth tackle before the ball is spread to the right on the fifth.

More attacking of markers
While the NRL claims the game will be more open with the new interchange limits, it could actually have the opposite effect. One tactic many teams will likely use to create a weak spot in defence is to run repeatedly at the same heavy forwards or outside backs, and then try to isolate that fatigued player by running a speedy half or hooker, such as Blake Austin or James Segeyaro, at them.

Almost every team already targets one player they believe to be of suspect fitness or mobility, and pound them by running straight at them when they are at marker or in the ‘A’ defender position. With the reduction in interchange this could be a more commonly used tactic, keeping the game closer instead of opening it up.

Later supersubs
Any supersub, whether a speedster like Ben Barba or a monster like Sam Kasiano, will likely be brought onto the field later in the game in order to take even greater advantage of fatigued players.

Teams will likely use the above tactic of pounding away at one player or area of the defensive line for most of a game, then put on their speedy and agile supersub to go around them, or a powerful impact forward to break through their tired defence, but later in the game than they used to. This could lead to plenty of exciting plays towards the end of matches.

How else you think the game will change? I’m sure there are plenty of other changes I have not yet considered.