I haven’t ever seen a side get destroyed as badly in a single off-season as the Roosters did since last October.
Their side went from stacked to, well, just above-average.
After finishing the 2015 season as the minor premiers for the third year straight, the Roosters were eliminated in the qualifying final for the second season in a row.
At that point they were heading into 2016 without Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and James Maloney, thanks to salary cap issues. Then in the space of about a month everything hit the fan.
First, the club decided to offload Michael Jennings, one of the better centres in the game, to give themselves some cap space. While this weakened the squad a little, Jennings’ replacement, Dale Copley, is certainly a first grader.
Then Mitchell Pearce did the whole dog thing, which means he is likely to sit out the season – well, if the NRL had any backbone he would sit out the season anyway. This is the guy’s second offence, and he made the game look stupid, so I am writing this preview running on the assumption that he is gone for the season.
This had the Roosters heading into the 2016 season with an inexperienced halves pairing of Jayden Nikorima and Jackson Hastings, but at least they still had a ridiculous forward pack. However, then Boyd Cordner got injured for an indefinite period of time, and it was announced that Jared Waerea-Hargreaves would be out for about ten weeks.
And that was that, the Roosters went from an automatic top-four side to one that could end up outside the eight. And that isn’t even mentioning the Shaun Kenny-Dowall trial.
Normally I only post one list, predicting who would get picked where if there are no injuries. However this time I will post the list predicted a few months ago versus the one going to line up Round 1.
Predicted Round 1 team as of October 2015
1. Blake Ferguson
2. Anthony Tupou
3. Michael Jennings
4. Shaun Kenny-Dowall
5. Joe Burgess
6. Jackson Hastings
7. Mitchell Pearce
8. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves
9. Jake Friend
10. Dylan Napa
11. Boyd Cordner
12. Aidan Guerra
13. Sio Siua Taukeiaho
14. Isaac Liu
15. Kane Evans
16. Mitchell Aubusson
17. Sam Moa
Predicted Round 1 team as of February 2016
1. Blake Ferguson
2. Daniel Tupou
3. Dale Copley
4. Shaun Kenny-Dowall
5. Joe Burgess
6. Jayden Nikorima
7. Jackson Hastings
8. Sam Moa
9. Jake Friend
10. Dylan Napa
11. Mitchell Aubusson
12. Aidan Guerra
13. Sio Siua Taukeiaho
14. Isaac Liu
15. Kane Evans
16. Ian Henderson
17. Vincent Leuluai
Strengths
Despite the loss of Jennings, the centres are still very good. Copley is young but was one of the best players in the 2014 Broncos side, and is touted as a future Origin star. He may be a downgrade from Jennings, but is still a young player with a lot of promise and a long career ahead of him.
Kenny-Dowall may have thrown one of the worst passes of all time in the 2015 finals series, but he is a dangerous, fast player, capable of ripping through edge defences and playing on both the wing and in the centres. He is quality, a New Zealand representative mainstay, and will be for years to come.
Friend is one of the best dummyhalves in that game. With the rest of the spine around him untested in their positions, Friend will be the main man for the Roosters, but he can handle himself. Widely expected to be the next Queensland hooker once Cameron Smith leaves, Friend steers the Roosters around the park expertly in attack and holds them together solidly in defence. His kicking and attacking game will be invaluable, especially when they are close to the try line. Friend is going to have to learn to be an 80-minute hooker because Ian Henderson is… We’ll get to that later.
Hastings played out of his skin in the back half of 2015, in fact he was playing better than Pearce. His partnership with Maloney was part of the reason the Roosters had such a powerful run into the finals. His kicking game was on point, his linking game was amazing, and he played well in general. The big question is, can he keep up that form as a dominant half?
Then we get to the big boppers. Even without two of its best players, this pack is littered with talent, power, speed and most importantly variation. Sam Moa is a complete wrecking ball with the ball in hands, charging into the defensive line with no fear. Dylan Napa is essentially a thug on the field, he looks and acts like he is just out there to hurt people with his ridiculous hits in both attack and defence. Kane Evans’ game has been growing since his debut, and he looks set for a breakout season.
Mitchell Aubusson is one of the most underrated players in the game, and may be one of the best utility players going. He can play at centre, dummy half, five-eighth and in his primary position the second row. He is just an all-around solid player.
Aiden Guerra is an incredibly talented second-rower, while Sio Siua Taukeiaho was a talented and capable replacement for Sonny Bill Williams, making a huge impact from debuted. In the most stacked forward pack in the comp, he managed to force his way from the bench to the starting side in the space of one season, very impressive.
Then there are the two who turn this forward pack from pretty-damn-good to god-tier.
Waerea-Hargreaves is one of the best forwards in the business. On multiple occasions last year he single handily changed the momentum of games with his attacking runs. Cordner won the 2013 Dally M Second Rower of the Year, and is just talented in general. Once those two come in, I can see the Roosters’ winning percentage increase significantly.
Trent Robinson has a great record in the regular season – he may have had a stacked side, but three minor premierships in three seasons is huge. People complain that he chokes in the finals, but no one was going to beat the Rabbitohs in 2014, or the Cowboys in 2015.
People need to remember that coming into 2013 the Roosters were not a highly rated side. He may have had a talented roster, but his coaching is primarily what got the Roosters the premiership, not the roster.
Weaknesses
Blake Ferguson is not a fullback. He may be a very good centre, but he will not have the positioning required of a fullback. Unfortunately however, he is the Roosters’ best option.
Latrell Mitchell is far too young to play fullback in first grade – his body would not be ready for the rigours. He may have played well in the World Club Challenge, but the English sides are essentially NSW Cup level.
Daniel Tupou is good at catching high balls, but that is about it. His game is far too one dimensional for a representative winger. Most of the other Roosters players that debuted in 2012-13 have evolved their game, Tupou just hasn’t. He is an average winger, and I see him being dropped sometime into next year.
Friend needs to become an 80-minute hooker as quickly as possible, because Henderson isn’t good enough. Matt McIlwrick was bad last year, but this guy will be horrible.
Then we get to the halves. Nikorima is a talented young player, but pairing him and Hastings together will be a disaster. They are both far too young and inexperienced to be successful. And while Kieran Foran and Daly Cherry-Evans played well together when inexperienced, for every Foran and DCE you have ten Luke Brooks and Mitchell Moses cases. One half needs some first-grade experience.
I am not a big fan of Pearce by any means, but losing him is why they aren’t a top-four side.
Expectations
If they remain relatively injury-free, the Roosters won’t miss the eight. Their forward pack is good even without Cordner and JWH, their backs are still serviceable, and their coach is excellent.
Even with an inexperienced spine, the Roosters are still a very good side. They might struggle a little early on, but with JWH and Cordner back, Hastings and Nikorima a little more familiar in first grade, and Friend finishing his transition into an 80-minute hooker, they will end the season red hot, and finish sixth.
Conclusion
The Roosters don’t have the side for a premiership, but they will be there come September.
Lachlan Bickley
Roar Guru
Friend played 80 minutes six times in 2014 and then seven times last year including his most recent game the preliminary final loss to the Broncos
Dr Yes
Guest
Rooster's have been up for 3 years. But they haven't just collapsed. They've planned for this year from about 2-3 years back. Salary cap means moneyball. Which means not paying $800k for a fullback or $600k for a centre. That's why they have 8 junior backs who are junior kangaroos or junior kiwis or england internationals or in NSW/Holden Cup team of year: Hastings, Nikorima, Burgess, Langi, Mitchell, Elliot, Slaimankhel, Manu. Some will be too green, some will be right up there. At the start of 2013 RTS, Tupou, Napa, Evans had half a dozen games between them - a few kicked on and they won the premiership. This year, they planned/decided not to renew 7 contracts and which players to chase & negotiate. Just saying, because "I haven’t ever seen a side get destroyed as badly" sounds as if all events happened from the outside upon the Roosters. RTS made his own decision. Injury & possible suspension certainly happened from outside - JWH 10 weeks + Cordner 10 weeks + Pearce 6 weeks? The pack is strong - once JWH and Cordner are back. Are there 4 better props in a team? The backs need to form. RTS was number 1 back for stats in 2015. Fergo was next Chook, with figures about 15% lower (i.e. tries, try assists, linebreaks, linebreak assists, plus metres). He'll have more opportunity to run & break tackles at fullback. RTS was brilliant and had great passing - but he did have the ball alot, and it did sometimes starved others. Maloney had great attack - his assists through the roof - but Hastings can play and can defend much better. BTW: "(Hastings) partnership with Maloney was part of the reason the Roosters had such a powerful run into the finals" - no, because Pearce was injured halfway through Round 25. Last year the Roosters won 6/12 at start of season and 12/12 at end. A big reason for semis losses was JWH & Pearce out injured. So it's not all gloom. A more challenging year, for sure. Hastings is an "85%" replacement for Maloney and Fergo is an "85%" replacement for RTS. But Copley doesn't directly replace Jennings - who could? They play much differently. And Bennett only played Copley in 9 games last year. 1 try & 1 linebreak - but he's better than that as 2014 stats show. Some of those juniors might pop up - including at centre and wing. Backline depth will be an issue. By semi time, and under Robinson, you know they'll gel. But they need JWH & Pearce for the semis.
East Bound & Down
Guest
I seem to remember a couple of young halves playing in a grand final as recently as last year . Halves need room to operate and that's what they'll get behind , probably the best go forward pack in the Comp . The comparison to Brooke's and Moses isn't really relevant as these two won't be behind a tigers pack getting belted 9 outta ten starts.
scoop
Guest
Year before last he was playing 80 minutes all the time.
Keith Sheldon
Roar Guru
Jake Friend is an 80 minute player that hasn't played an 80 minute game in his life, rightio.
scoop
Guest
The halves won't bomb, Jake Friend is already an 80 minute player, Daniel Tupou is far better than you think, Blake Ferguson should go ok and Latrell Mitchell is more than ready. Lot of young guns in the team which, mixed with the SOO and International experience of the others, makes the Roosters very dangerous. You just never know...
Keith Sheldon
Roar Guru
Young halves don't usually work, you just need to look back at history to see it. I like Robbo, I said in the article I think they got three minor premierships because of his coaching, not their roster. Tupou will get dropped for someone like Mitchell or Elliot, who I think are a lot more talented than him. He is a fine first grade winger, but not for a side with depth as good as they have. They won't make the GF this year. One more injury to a key player early in the year and they are done, if the halves bomb they are done. There are too many variables here for them to be GF material.
Keith Sheldon
Roar Guru
I say Ferguson isn't going to be a good fullback because he is a centre moving into fullback. I think these days you need your fullbacks to posses a decent ball playing game, it is why the Dragons are trying the ridiculous 'Mann to Fullback' move, because Dugan doesn't offer that spark in attack. The same will be true for Ferguson, he has had bugger all experience at fullback so I can't see him being a good one. As I said in the article I am assuming Mitchel Pearce will be gone the whole season, because he deserves to be. He was a moron who made the game look dumb again, he should be out for good this year to sort his stuff out. But you might have a point about JWH and Cordner. I think for young halves to shine you need a player or two that can take the playmaking pressure off of them. Foran and DCE worked because they had both Stewarts and Lyon who could provide support in last tackle plays. Apart from Nathan Friend I don't see any Roosters players who can do that for them, so I am cautious about them. Latrell Mitchell may be able to get a wing spot but he is not ready to be a first grade fullback.
East Bound & Down
Guest
Mmmm some quite confusing statements in this article . As pointed out Fergo may or may not succeed but the pudding hasn't even gone in the oven yet let alone been eaten . The halves combo is pretty much in the same position where I'm sure there will be times when the communication won't be great but youthful enthusiasm can also count for plenty . Robbo as a coach took a team from 13th to a premiership in one year and has three successive MP's on the board , gee your hard to please Keith if that doesn't count for quality. Tupou is as good as any other first grade winger , I'd agree that he's probably not SOO standard but to suggest he'll get dropped , I'm not sure how you come to that conclusion . Overall this will be a hard year for the Chooks and as pointed out by TB they will be hoping the injury gods have moved their focus elsewhere for a while. All things falling into place I'm sticking with my prediction of another GF appearance this year .
MAX
Guest
SKD not guilty. Play on.
Lachlan Bickley
Roar Guru
I'd second that thought about Ferguson and referring the Raiders is a good place to start because I think a good comparison may be 2010-2012 vintage Josh Dugan. Having watched a lot of Dugan in person in those years his positioning was terrible and he had very little ball playing (arguably still doesn't) and yet his ball running was so ferocious that it made up for it. Maybe Ferguson at fullback will work, maybe it won't but I won't be passing judgment for at least ten games
The Barry
Roar Guru
They'll definitely be hoping for no early season injuries. Eevery team does it tough with injuries but the Roosters are particularly vulnerable. On what basis do you say that Ferguson won't have the positioning required to be a good fullback? I would have thought that would be a call you can make only once you've seen someone in the position for a time. I remember him playing fullback at the Raiders. Don't remember his positioning but he was very good with his kick returns and support play. He'll make a few mistakes particularly early but I think he'll go well overall. Having JWH, Pearce and Cordner returning fresh in the first 10 rounds or so may end up being an advantage for the Roosters. I'm looking forward to seeing Hastings and Nikorima play and think it will be far from a disaster. Both of them are sublimely talented but play with such confidence. Nikorima's defence in the front line may be a concern. I can't wait to see Latrell Mitchell play at some stage this season. There's been a lot of hype for a while now about him and what I saw in the 9s and the WCC he's a mouth watering prospect. Even with all the players that have left or are injured / suspended the Roosters have a roster that a lot of other teams would kill for.
Tom Rock
Expert
I think 2016 will be the first time we will really get to see if Trent Robinson has the coaching chops he has long been awarded. The teams he has been given to coach over the past 3 years have been outstanding. Beyond belief in the 'salary cap' era. And he did very well with these teams, guiding them to 3 consecutive minor premierships. However I think even the much maligned John 'SuperCoach' Hopoate could have managed a top 8 finish with that lot. Robinson really needs to take charge of this team, and he has the perfect opportunity to truly put his stamp on the Roosters.