Footscray: Sneaky '16 premiership?

By popular demand I’ve jumped ahead to preview the Western Bulldogs – Footscray for the sake of keeping with the alphabetical order.

This side projects as worthy of a top-four finish. The overwhelming majority of players are at an age where their trajectory can comfortably be predicted as trending upwards.

Mitch Wallis, Jack Macrae, Luke Dahlhaus, Marcus Bontempelli and Lachlan Hunter are 23 or younger and collected more than 20 possessions a game in 2015. This places each of those players on a career trajectory two standard deviations above average for their age group.

If those players maintained their expected output, the Bulldogs would have five midfielders in the top-40 players in the league by 2020.

In a previous article I rated their midfield (the nine first-choice players to play midfield, excluding the ruckman) as the 11th best in the league. Although certain selection criteria were arguably responsible for this overall ranking, what is evident is that the Bulldogs share, along with Greater Western Sydney, the youngest and fastest improving midfield in the league.

Best 22
Backs Easton Wood Jordan Roughead Jason Johannisen
Half Backs Matthew Boyd Joel Hamling Matthew Suckling
Centre Koby Stevens Liam Picken Marcus Bontempelli
Half Forwards Luke Dahlhaus Jack Redpath Clay Smith
Forwards Toby McLean Tom Campbell Jake Stringer
Followers Will Minson Mitch Wallis Jack Macrae
Interchange Lachlan Hunter Lin Jong Shane Biggs
Robert Murphy

The fear in 2016 will be that this young side overperformed in 2015, and therefore a regression is inevitable in 2016 (see Port Adelaide 2014-2015).

Injury will be the telling feature in this regard, and is hard to predict. Nevertheless, key players from the Bulldogs 2015 side should continue their development. Certainly what we can say from a modeling point of view is that there is less certainty and greater volatility when players are at the beginning of their career.

Having said that, there is also a much larger sample set of data from which to analyse players at the beginning of their career, meaning that although long-term trajectory may have less certainty, we can be confident predicting short-term fluctuations.

To this end it is reasonable, barring injury, to be confident the players under 24 on this list will continue trend upwards.

The corollary to this youth, the experienced players, is also worth mentioning. Although there are few ‘old stagers’ on this list overall, those who remain are the perfect experienced foils for a young list.

Dale Morris, Robert Murphy and Matthew Boyd should theoretically be in decline from a modeling perspective, however all three continue to maintain form, and provide steady assistance to the likes of Jason Johannisen, Jordan Roughead, Easton Wood and Joel Hamling in a backline that always seems undersized but still performs well.

Murphy and Boyd are in as good form now as ever, this is especially noteworthy in the case of Boyd who has made the shift from the midfield to predominantly half back with ease. Add a quality ball user in Matthew Suckling and the Dogs’ defensive unit is among the best in terms of ability to win their own ball and dispose of it effectively.

It might be dangerous to expect too many players on the wrong side of 30 to maintain their most recent form, modeling suggests they should drop off, however the mix is balanced enough to offset this potential decline with emerging young players.

There is at least one notable exclusion to the best 22, and a couple of curious ins.

Tom Liberatore is clearly in the best 22 when fit, and on 2014 form would rate near enough to the best player in the midfield. His exclusion is only a result of my criteria for selection, which was based on assessing and weighting for 2015 data. His potential return to form poses a positive dilemma for the Bulldogs – who to leave out?

As far as inclusions are concerned, many readers will dismiss Will Minson. For readers familiar with my RPV analysis, this is my projection comparison for Minson and Tom Campbell

You could also make the argument for maybe Roughead, Redpath or some combination of any of the four names I have mentioned. The problem is each of those players are decent but none stand out as an obvious choice for the number 1 ruck role.

Including Minson takes pressure off the other players mentioned, who are suited better to key defensive roles (Roughead) or key forward roles (Redpath and Campbell). In the forward line playing two genuine bigs in Redpath and Campbell also allows Stinger to play third tall, and this structure would be especially beneficial for his game.

I have Clay Smith in the side because the few games he manages to play each season still project him as in the best 22. I’m not exactly sure how much longer he is out, but I assume he’s still a way off. My replacement in this instance would be Mitch Honeychurch.

Biggest strength: Young, promising midfield
As I’ve already mentioned there is a deep, versatile mix of players in this midfield. It seems unnecessary to list every one, but since Matthew Boyd moved to a defensive role the Bulldogs’ nominal midfield is made up of players under 24 years old, with the exception of Liam Picken. The midfield is therefore steeply trending upward and exhibits a broad complementary skill set.

Bontempelli looks the complete package in terms of physical versatility and skill set, Picken can tag, Liberatore, Wallis and Macrae seem to do their best work on the inside, while players like Hunte, Koby Stevens and Dahlhaus can hurt teams with speed on the outside.

Of this young group, five will likely be in the best 40 midfielders in 2020 – a figure that will only realistically be matched by Gold Coast or GWS, who as we know had massive draft concessions to corner available young talent.

Biggest weakness: Ruckman
While Minson is still a decent AFL player he is on the other side of the hill as far as his projected statistical output. Additionally, the players who have held down the ruck role for the club recently do not seem to be obvious first choices for the position.

The player who ends up as the permanent ruck may well get the role by default. That is, if Campbell can be effective as a forward and Roughead plays his best football as a key defender, then the only true ruck man left on the list is, in fact, Minson.

The club might want to get games into Luke Goetz, I don’t know anything about him other than to say he is tall enough to ruck. More realistically, Campbell will probably play first ruck, Minson will not play, and the forward gap will be taken by someone like Tory Dickson.

This is not my first choice side, but because there doesn’t seem to be an obvious choice for the role, the team may experiment with different combinations.

Incidentally, all teams need to make stark choices about the type of ruck man who carries the role for the team. That is, teams either need a Max Gawn, Aaron Sandilands, Sam Jacobs, Todd Goldstein tap ruck, or a quicker, athletic ruck who can work around the ground in the vain of Stefan Martin or (in 2015) Mark Blicavs.

The Bulldogs don’t have a clear type in this regard, so whoever gets the job will have a difficult task week to week, adapting to either play more around the ground or to bang with the bigger players. I could envisage a ruckman who fulfills neither of these types falling into limbo, being out-rucked one week by Sandilands and outrun the next week by Martin.

Best mid: Mitch Wallis
Probably a controversial choice, because everybody loves Bontempelli, so let’s compare the two as far as 2016 projections are concerned.

There is not a lot in it, but you have to give the nod to Wallis.

It’s worth acknowledging that Bontempelli falls into this category of player who is physically so versatile and seemingly has every athletic box ticked. This type of specimen sometimes catches the public eye a little stronger than others.

I watched the Bulldogs play at Craigieburn this past weekend and walked past Mitch Wallis – you could mistake him for still being in high school. The point is simply that players who look like normal, fit people (Wallis) often don’t garner the same level of attention as people who look like Roger Ramjet (Bontempelli).

Don’t misconstrue – Bontempelli is a complete gun – but the work Wallis did in 2015 as a ball winner and clearance player was underrated.

Best defender: Matthew Boyd
I wanted to choose Jason Johannisen but had to be consistent with my methodology. Apologies to Johannisen and his fans, he is probably more of a legitimate defender, he is also for mine the next best defender after Boyd in 2016 and projects as one of the top five defensive players in the league by 2020.

Boyd, however, is nominally a general defender as of 2015, even though he will go to contests and play as a stoppage mid when the ball is in his area. We can debate whether or not Boyd is a true defender (he’s not really), but he provides the most value of players in their backline.

He projects as a 25-plus possession player to go along with 3.5 one percenters and 7.5 marks. This speaks to his ability to link up and spread from defence, as well as win his own ball, a feature which he has always demonstrated throughout his career.

Nor should Boyd’s move from midfield to defence be undersold. Transitioning to a completely different role gets talked about as a benign shift, particularly when a player does it so seamlessly. Boyd brings many of his contested inside skills to the back line, which is useful, but at the same time he has had to adjust his game to suit the requirements of a modern running defender.

Teams can talk about moving players to new positions but rarely do they have the skill to achieve this shift seamlessly and maintain the same type of form as Boyd.

Best forward: Jake Stringer
The forward line is studded with one shiny gem in Jake Stringer. On this site alone there has been discussion regarding the awe-inspiring skill set this individual possesses, so perhaps it is unnecessary to restate the consensus.

However he is averaging nearly 15 possessions, 2.7 tackles and 3.5 marks a game in his third season, which puts him rare statistical company. Regardless of whether or not he continues to produce the same goal kicking form, a player of his size capable of taking contested marks and outrunning bigger defenders allows the Bulldogs a type of flexibility and versatility that many teams would die for.

The coaches association named Stringer as a key forwards in their 2015 All Australian side, clearly he has the ability to play as a central key forward, but he could be most dangerous as a third option. This is reflected in my 22, which has Redpath and Campbell as the key forward options, as well as Minson as a ruck and resting forward.

The best mismatches could be exploited with two truly tall forwards taking the biggest defenders and then allowing Stringer to work over a smaller player. He obviously has the pace to do the opposite (work a big forward over by running the up the ground), but getting a height mismatch would allow Stringer to exploit his opponent closer to goal where he is extraordinarily dangerous.

I also have a lot of faith in the statistical output of Jack Redpath. In 2016 he projects as only racking up eight to ten touches a game, which is not uncommon for a key forward early in his career. He does however project as recording 2.5 one percenters, 2.5 tackles per game, and 4.5 marks in 2016, and improving on this out to 2020.

Although his possession tally is likely to be unremarkable, if he meets my projected expectations he will produce above standard in those aforementioned categories, which would make him uncommon if not exceptional for his age and position.

It is important for this Bulldogs side that a player like Redpath is comfortable and effective as a key forward who will not necessarily be the first-choice goal kicker with Stringer by his side. He does however project as being extremely capable as a foil who can out mark his opponent when required, and work hard for his size to create opportunities for more dynamic players like Stringer. My data suggest he can and will be this player.

Conclusion
The Bulldogs have the fourth-best list in the competition this year. I’m nervous saying it, because I have the memory of Port Adelaide 2015 warning me against getting too excited about teams that have had one good recent season, but this team could win as many as 18 games. I would predict between 15 and 18 wins.

They are young, balanced, improving and have a variety of talent on each part of the ground. If they beat the teams they can and should beat, they’ll finish fourth. Then they as good a chance for the flag as anyone.

A sneaky flag ‘before they’re ready’ – in the vain of Hawthorn 2008 – is not beyond the realm of possibility.