Six Nations preview: Eddie's England to pip Welsh in classic

I thought I would be brave this week and predict the outcome before the match.

In recent seasons Wales have adopted the mantle of England’s bogey team. In 2012, Scott Williams ripped a ball and scored the winning try at Twickenham. The next year, Grand Slam hopefuls England were torn to shreds by an inspired Wales.

And in last year’s World Cup, England were mugged by a moment of brilliance and humiliated by a moment of stupidity that ushered in the end of the Lancaster era.

This leads us to the new era. Eddie Jones has listed his priorities as putting some arrogance and aggression back into the England shirt, while trying to balance a back-line that has boundless potential.

This stands in contrast to the Warren Gatland era that remains as steady as a rock; a rock made up of outstanding defence, massive ball carriers and opportunistic but limited attack.

Both men have strong opinions so you would have been within your rights to expect some firecrackers in the build up to this game. Eddie Jones has instead taken his media hat off, avoided the pre-game hype-machine and has, so far, refrained from saying anything too inflammatory.

This has resulted in Warren Gatland lamenting the silence and celebrating his antipodean rival as “great” and “refreshing”, while instead questioning George Ford’s defence. The idea being that to attack Jones would reduce the pressure on the England players, but by attacking Ford’s defence it will play on the young man’s confidence and pit him directly against England’s current number 12.

With the return of Manu Tuilagi to the Test squad and Henry Slade soon to return from a broken leg, the candidates for the 12 shirt are swelling. Ford will be painfully aware that the in-form Premiership stand-off and bruising defensive player, Owen Farrell, is now directly auditioning for his shirt.

And I’m sure Gatland hopes that the internal pressure for his position and external pressure on his defensive technique may adversely affect Ford’s decision making skills; in turn forcing the young fly-half to over compensate for his perceived weaknesses.

This will manifest itself in the ball that is needlessly run from deep or a cut-out pass too far. Decisions of this nature will play directly into the hands of the Shawn Edwards defensive machine that gobbles up mistakes and spits out tries week in, week out.

But this is all a sideshow; the real battle will take place in five key areas: at prop, second row, the open-side, the backs (en-masse) and the subs.

Samson Lee versus Joe Marler
I’m not going to pretend that I understand all the intricacies of front-row play. In my playing days I was a flanker and occasional second rower, because of this my ears still retain their natural shape and I’m pretty happy about that.

But even to me it is clear that Marler, set against a technically accomplished tight-head, has a tendency to engage on the angle and give away penalties.

Added to that, his sometime-suspicious technique has been noted by the international refereeing community and if there are any problems in the scrum the referee will often look at his side first.

It may not always be Marler’s fault but, due to the difficulty of refereeing a scrum, the officials have been known to jump to conclusions based on reputation before.

Ultimately, as is the trend in modern rugby, this battle will come down to whoever gets on the good side of Craig Joubert and until the substitutes are introduced, I see the impressive Samson Lee edging it.

Alun Wyn Jones versus George Kruis
This will be the best competition on the park.

George Kruis, to some, is the surprise of the tournament. If Jones was looking for a ‘test animal’ I think he may have found one in this combative second row.

On the opposing side, Alun Wyn Jones is a proven Test animal with years of experience playing in big pressure games; he steals line outs, tackles relentlessly and consistently disrupts the opposition ruck, which would suggest he should edge this contest.

And that would be true if this was a fair fight, but it isn’t. It’s gang warfare and Kruis has the stronger support with (potentially) an even better second row, in Maro Itoje, packing down beside him.

Therefore, I see England becoming more dominant in this area as the game wears on.

Sam Warburton versus James Haskell
This is the area in which Wales have a clear advantage. Warburton is a leader, a poacher, a man-breaking tackler. He consistently makes the right decisions at the right time.

In contrast, Haskell gets yellow carded – a lot.

The Welshman will take this contest but despite popular opinion, winning the battle of the 7s doesn’t necessarily mean you will win the game.

So to the most significant contest on this list.

Welsh backs versus English backs
Rob Howley claimed midweek that Wales won’t be playing ‘champagne’ rugby was like me declaring I have no intention of dating Natalie Portman; it was never a possibility anyway.

And unfortunately for the Welsh fan of champagne rugby, Wales only have five attacking options at the moment and they’re all of the heavy stout variety.

In contrast, the England backline now looks fairly balanced; strength and ferocity with Farrell and Mike Brown is complimented by the guile and speed of Jack Nowell, Anthony Watson and Jonathan Joseph.

Added to this is a bench that contains the sheer power of Manu Tuilagi (although for a heterosexual man I spend far too much time worrying about his groin). There’s also the speed, running lines and siege canon boot of Elliot Daly; both ready to be used or not used depending on the game-situation.

The only aspect in Wales favour is, again, experience. This English back-line has not crackled into life quite how some supporters might have hoped before the tournament but there is a feeling of inevitability that one day they will.

This heavily contrasts a very experienced Welsh back-line, who rarely crackle but possess a tried and tested game-plan that they consistently carry out with devout commitment and ceaseless power.

And finally, the game decider.

Wales’s bench versus England’s bench
The modern game is 23 against 23 and traditionally in this fixture it is the team who can finish strongest that will win the contest; a factor that Eddie Jones will have taken note of.

The Welsh bench, barring Rhys Webb, is stocked with good players who just aren’t quite as good as the man they are replacing.

In contrast, each player on England’s bench offers something different to the man they replace. It is this part of the game where Jones will look to use the variety of his bench to finish Wales off; whether it’s through Mako Vunipola’s off-loading game, Jack Clifford’s pace, Manu Tuilagi’s bulk or Elliot Daly’s boot.

Ultimately, Wales are physically the toughest team in the tournament and Saturday the 12th will be Eddie Jones’s hardest day as the England coach so far.

Added to this, the collective patience of the English supporter was exhausted by the Lancaster regime so Jones will not have as much wiggle room should England lose another important game against Wales.

Therefore, his media silence becomes telling, suggesting he recognises how much is at stake for this young side so early in his tenure and to not give this contest the respect it deserves would damage the positive atmosphere he has so far created.

A prediction based on history would suggest if England are leading by more than a converted try with ten minutes to go then it’s theirs. If not, then look out for the English mistake and the Welsh celebrations.

However, I believe Eddie’s England will be able to take that step Lancaster’s England never managed.

Tip: England 24 Wales 13