Ahh, the post-Round 1 meltdown. A frantic time of year for any AFL fan, as we tear our hair out suddenly deciding everything we thought in the pre-season was utterly and completely wrong.
Knee-jerk reactions are only natural, but we all should remember that one game isn’t enough to change the course of a season. Having said that, the opening round did allude us to some players and teams whose position we ought to maybe rethink.
First of all, what you probably shouldn’t read too much into.
Fyfe’s shocker
Fremantle were towelled up by the Western Bulldogs on Sunday, and boy, did it show on the stats sheet. Current Brownlow medallist Nat Fyfe was very quiet by his standards, only registering 15 possessions and struggling to have any impact on the game.
However, don’t let this dent your impression of the champ. He’s still the best player in the game and I’ll be very surprised if he has that unremarkable a game once more this year. I’m expecting him to come out all guns blazing against Gold Coast in Round 2. Have no doubts about this man’s ability.
The Colliwobbles
Perhaps the ugliest loss of the opening round belonged to Collingwood, who had to play just one day after another damning drugs scandal breaking in the news. On Saturday night they simply couldn’t match it with a slick Sydney outfit and were embarrassed.
There’s no doubt they were affected by events the day prior, and their efforts showed. They’re a proud club with an impressive list and I can’t see them getting beaten that badly again anytime soon.
Dane Swan is a massive loss, but they definitely have the midfield depth to cover him. Don’t write their finals aspirations off yet. Friday night against Richmond is absolutely massive.
High-scoring shenanigans
Only four teams kicked less than 12 goals in the first round, with nine teams topping 100. It was a delight to watch and a welcome change from defensive-minded tactics that have made football a sometimes-boring spectacle over recent years. Unfortunately, it won’t stay.
Coaches will find a way to shut down the quick, free-flowing football we all love, and scores will shrink as they do so. Enjoy it while it lasts.
New rules ruining everything
Players and supporters alike will take time to get used to two new rule interpretations: the cracking down on deliberate out-of-bounds and the ten metre protected zones. Like many others, I was throwing my arms up in disbelief at some decisions, but as always, we have to give the umpires and players time to adjust.
Before too long we’ll gain an understanding of how the game will be adjudicated, and we can go back to loving the umpires just as much as usual. Or not.
On the other hand, early headlines worth your attention.
New Blues are good Blues
Carlton impressed everyone on Thursday night. From the first bounce until the last siren this football team were competitive, brave and resilient. Their list is nowhere near finals quality yet, but what Brendan Bolton has seemingly already done is incredible.
Also worth noticing that almost every new recruit played very solid games. The list turnover so far gets a big tick. If they can keep up their attacking gameplan and off-the-ball pressure, brighter days will come far sooner than anticipated.
The kids are alright
There were some fantastic debut games over the round. It’s always great to see kids come in to this system and play well, but occasionally they leave a bigger impression than we could’ve hoped. Clayton Oliver, Jacob Weitering, Darcy Parish, George Hewett and Tom Papley in particular stood out as genuine contributors for their teams.
These guys are the future, and to look so comfortable in their earliest day on field is definitely worth getting excited about. Genuine talents.
Shinboner spirit
Do not let the lack of hype fool you, North Melbourne are a very real chance of winning the premiership this year. Their effort to come back against the Crows was gutsy, and all signs point to the old firm being very capable of playing elite football this season. They have the best ruckman in the game in Todd Goldstein, as well as a plethora of experienced, talented players all over the ground.
Their draw is quite favourable, and if they are as good as I think they are they will entrench themselves in the top four and become impossible to ignore come mid-year.
Hawthorn injury pain
If Hawthorn’s loss to Geelong yesterday showed us anything, it was just how important some of their key players are to the way they play. Jordan Roughead’s injury is possibly the most damaging in the AFL, as the Hawks have come to rely on the big man year after year, and at times looked lost without his presence.
With news that Luke Hodge is out for at least a month, questions will start to be asked of Hawthorn’s younger group, and I wouldn’t be surprised if a depleted Hawthorn side begins to wane.
Brad Hill and Liam Shiels are also very hard to replace. Games against West Coast and the Western Bulldogs lay ahead, and we could very well see the Hawks at 0-3.
Peppsy
Roar Guru
I'd say this is probably more down to the AFL wanting as many good, close games as possible to open the season. Also, Fremantle were the only minor premier of the past 3 to win their first game, but their percentage was so low that they didn't make the 8. So we could see the minor premier Be one of the losing teams or Melbourne.
EddyJ
Guest
Also, a good win in Round 1 can be a great springboard into the season, but ultimately doesn't mean that much. Like our greatest Prime Minister Julia Gillard said, 'it explains some things, but it doesn't explain everything'. North Melbourne last year recovered from a 77-point hiding in Round 1 2015 to make the final four. Hawthorn won the premiership in 1991 after an 86-point flogging in Round 1. Sydney made the Grand Final in 1996 after a 90-point loss in Round 1. It's a 22-round season, and just like a team can give its worst display for the year in the Grand Final (like West Coast in 2015, Sydney in 2014), it can also give it worst display for the year in Round 1. That's what teams like Fremantle and Collingwood would be hoping for. However, there are similarities for these two teams – both have key forwards that are out of form and ineffective (and probably played for a season too long) in Pavlich and Cloke, looked incredibly slow against younger rejuvinated teams. The Round 1 matches for Fremantle and Collingwood both had that 'it's going to be a long season' look about them but let's see what transpires in Round 2.
EddyJ
Guest
For stats minded people, since 1987, only two clubs that have had a percentage of 250 or more after Round 1, have missed the finals. But, it's only happened on 12 occasions. Of those 12, four have been premiers. The Swans are currently on 250%, Western Bulldogs are on 271%. Based on this, I'd say there's a high chance that these two will make the finals, and probably a good chance that one of them will be in the Grand Final. But, having said that, it doesn't guarantee anything – it's just material from the past, and offers a signpost for the future. Would be interesting to see a Swans v Bulldogs Grand Final.
Armadale Demon
Guest
I love the first two sentences of this article. Well said. As a St. Kilda fan, I want to believe game 1 of the season predicts at least something for the season. In this case, the Saints didn't look like dog meat for four quarters they way they have of late (just the last half of the last quarter). Hopefully the first three-quarters of round 1 for the Saints justifies my belief that they may win 7 games this year. But I'm terrible at predicting footy outcomes. Luckily gambling is illegal here in California.
Michael Huston
Guest
Richmond are the most unimposing team in the league. They're the one team Hawthorn and Sydney can go into each year knowing they'll lose to Richmond and still not take them seriously. I don't think a percentage win for them is going to mean anything.
Tricky
Guest
"Dane Swan is a massive loss, but they definitely have the midfield depth to cover him. Don’t write their finals aspirations off yet. Friday night against Richmond is absolutely massive." A/ You can't cover Dane Swan - you can replace his position but not of his quality. B/ Friday night is massive for Richmond anyway a percentage win for them and bottom of the ladder for us. C/ A & B are not a knee jerk reaction.
Shannon Russell
Roar Guru
My apologies! One game without him and I mess up his name. Must edit this - thanks for noticing!
Brendon the 1st
Guest
Collingwood being crap isn't knee-jerk, it's just the same as it was last season and the season before, the truth without the hype. Bottom six this season no worries.
Captain Captain
Roar Rookie
Almost choked on my wheaties moment. "Jordan Roughead’s injury is possibly the most damaging in the AFL". Jordan Roughead serious injury? Please let it not be so! Not after he dominated for the dogs in the ruck on Sunday. But then I realized we were talking about the other Hawks Roughead.
Samantha
Roar Rookie
Nope, just happy my side won and did so in a fairly decent way. I have my season pass/fail goals already set and they certainly cannot be accomplished in round 1.
Reccymech
Roar Rookie
Not trying to go against what I said before...but. There's always a but. You have probably got a smile on how your 'cats' performed. I'd be happy, (I ain't my team lost, miserably). Maybe your round 1 does a season make.
Samantha
Roar Rookie
Exactly right on Hendo, he did his job, which for me, is all I am looking for right now. I'll expect more later on but right now I just want him to get some continuity and confidence.
Macca
Guest
Didn't notice Henderson much but I suppose that just means he did his job - McCarthy looks a real find.
Samantha
Roar Rookie
Definitely happy, wasn't perfect but plenty to like and build on. Hendo did what needed to be done too, nothing to flashy, though that goal he slotted did come at a critical time, but solid. Also loved seeing little Lincoln McCarthy out there.
Macca
Guest
You'd have to be happy Samantha - Dangerfield and Smith are great pick ups for you - another high class game between the Hawks & Geelong.
Samantha
Roar Rookie
Agreed, but it sure does feel better being on the winning side.
Reccymech
Roar Rookie
Yup, Round 1 does not a season make.
Michael Huston
Guest
It can be tempting as a Swans supporter to play into the "we're back" mantra, but I'm realistic. I saw in round two last year the Swans bury Port Adelaide in what I can only describe as the best defensive game I've ever seen the Swans play. They then proceeded to spend the next twenty rounds slowly self-destructing and becoming more and more unrecognisable. But what I can safely assume is that the Swans CAN still play football very, very well. Whether they do it again this season or not is unknown, and I still firmly believe we'll miss out on a top four berth. But at least I can take solace in the fact that they at least know what they're capable of, and that their young kids can play. It's not a sign of results to come, but there's life at the Swans still.