NRL Thursday Night Forecast: Broncos vs Dragons

Welcome back to The Roar‘s NRL Thursday Night Forecast series. Despite the Rabbitohs valiant attempts to lose the game last week we remain perfect at tipping the result of the Thursday night game although sadly we are yet to hit on first try scorer.

Tonight it’s the top of the table Brisbane Broncos at home to the struggling St George Illawarra Dragons.

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It seems a strange thing to say for a team in first place, but the Broncos really haven’t played all that well yet with the exception of their excellent Good Friday performance against the North Queensland Cowboys.

The team has missed tackles at a much higher rate than 2015 – 26 per game compared to 21 – and is also making one extra error per contest. They are also slightly down on points per game and offloads.

What do all these statistics mean? Not terribly much for the time being. Brisbane have managed to do enough to win four of five games while dealing with several reshuffles in the backline and incorporating an all new right centre. The team is still grinding through the lower gears but for the time being it has, mostly, been enough.

For the Dragons however, the story is less encouraging. Not only is the team currently sitting in 14th – the manner of the losses that has been more troubling. With heavy losses against two top contenders in the Cronulla Sharks and Cowboys the team has looked outclassed against premier opposition.

After some rugged defence early on in Townsville the Dragons finally broke in the 25th minute and then sadly capitulated in the second half conceding four tries in a 29 minute period. St George will need to have an almighty comeback tonight to be any chance.

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTY, LIKE EVERY NRL GAME, IS LIVE ON FOXTEL

Team Sheet

Ahead of last week’s Thursday match saw both teams making a host of changes – both forced and unforced. However, this week we have two unchanged line-ups.

For the Broncos the choice to retain the same side is obvious. The team is top of the table with four wins and as mentioned still haven’t played especially well. Coach Wayne Bennett will run with this 17 for as long as he can.

For the Dragons, the decision to stick with the same 17 is a bit more contentious. After grinding well for 25 minutes against the Cowboys the team was blown away by the Premiers.

While the Dragons have struggled in attack, one player who is certainly not to blame is dummy half Mitch Rein. After a solid 2015 Rein has been outstanding to start the season and should arguably be among the front runners for the NSW hooker job.

He leads the league in dummy half runs by a considerable margin with his 31 darts – almost 50 per cent more than the next closest Cameron Smith (23). However, it is not simply the runs on which he ends up taking a tackle himself but also his relentless probing around the ruck that has made him so effective in 2015.

By taking a step or two towards the defensive line before passing Rein stalls the markers and gets his forwards on the front foot. What those forwards do, or more importantly don’t do, after they receive the ball is the focus of the next section.

One other interesting observation for the Dragons is that Jason Nightingale, who has long been stationed on the right wing for the Dragons, has in recent weeks played on the left edge alongside Euan Aitkin with Peter Mata’utia playing right wing outside Tim Lafai.

What to watch for

One of the things done in this section is look at what is going right for a team, particularly in attack to try to understand how and why a team is being successful. Unfortunately, when it comes to the Dragons there is not a lot to write about. In fact here’s an in-depth look at the Dragons attack:

Jokes aside the reality is that the Dragons have struggled badly to score points this season and it’s not a new phenomenon.

The team also struggled in attack in 2015 posting only 435 points for the season, or a little over 18 points per game. That made them the second worst attack in the competition with only the injury-ravaged Penrith side recording fewer points.

This trend has continued in 2016 with the team thus far scoring only 40 total points from five games. At eight points a game and with only six tries in all this is clearly cause for concern. This is by far the worst attack in the competition. In fact the next worst team is Parramatta Eels with 70 points, nearly double what the Dragons have scored.

While the lack of points may be the symptom, at least one of the causes is a lack of go-forward with the team making only 1315m per game. This is third lowest average in the comp ahead of only the Knights and Roosters – not the sort of company one wants to be in at the moment.

As with most things that go wrong for rugby league teams the problems start for the Dragons in the forward pack. For starters the team only possesses one player who has averaged over 100m per contest, the impressive Jack de Belin.

Only one team has fewer forward centurions but that is the second last Newcastle Knights. Even when we lower the cut off to 80m per contest the Dragons are again among the lowest with only four players averaging eighty plus with the other team again being the Knights.

Of course simple metres carried is far from the be all and end all of the value of a forward pack.

Factors like quick play the balls, second phase play and tackle breaks are all relevant. However, it is surely no coincidence that top teams such as the Cowboys (six over 100m and seven over 80m) and Broncos (three over 100m and five over 80m) are significantly stronger than the Dragons in this area.

Furthermore, the Dragons forwards aren’t especially good in those categories either. While the team does rank mid-pack in both raw tackle breaks (9th with 134) and offloads (8th with 50) those numbers are skewed towards the backs and halves rather than the forwards.

For example, of the Dragons 50 offloads only 18 have come from running forwards. For comparison, the Sharks have got 35 of their 56 offloads from forwards and the Eels have got 35 of their 64 from their pack. Those comparisons suggest that the Dragons forwards are contributing far less in that category.

Statistics like tackle breaks and offloads are critical because they reflect how threatening a player is and how many defenders he draws on any given run.

For instance front row forwards such as Jesse Bromwich, Ben Matulino and Junior Paulo all demand that the opposition get numbers to the tackle because otherwise you will pay via an offload. The Dragons have no prop who commands such close attention. The same goes for tackle breaking with a player like Andrew Fifita requiring much closer supervision than any Dragons forwards.

This lack of punch and second chance playmaking radiates outwards from the middle third of the field as teams are able to commit less to defending in tight and are thus able to more easily gobble up any play the Dragons try to run on the outside.

This is a fundamental challenge that undermines any attempt by the halves and backs to create scoring opportunities. Until the forwards develop more gravity in the middle of the field there simply won’t be enough space on the flanks for the smaller men to do anything.

With such a poor attack it would not be unreasonable to expect that the Dragons would be propping up the table and this is reflected in the team’s 14th place on the ladder at present. However, as with 2015 the team has managed to remain in touch with the eight via some excellent defensive efforts, recording wins with only eight and 14 points on the board against the Rabbitohs and Panthers respectively.

However, even here the team has had mixed results with three gritty defensive efforts offset by 30-2 and 36-0 shellackings. Overall the team is conceding a little over 20 points per game which while far from the worst in the league (that dishonour goes, once again, to the Knights) it’s clearly very bad news when paired with an offence that is generating only eight points per game.

More alarming is that 20 points per game also represents a drop off from 2015 when they held their opponents to a little over 17 points per game.

To make matters worse the team they play tonight has the second most running metres in the comp thus far, leads the league in line breaks, has the third most tackle breaks and has the second most try assists. In short they are a terrific attacking team and haven’t really got out of second gear yet.

The reality is then that if the Dragons can’t improve their attack and further solidify their defence, then they are going to struggle to compete whether it is tonight against the Broncos or in future games.

Meanwhile, for the Broncos the player to watch tonight is fullback Darius Boyd. Thus far in season 2016 it is fair to say that there is a consensus that halfback Ben Hunt has struggled to find his best form, with many attributing this to his unfortunate knock on during the 2015 grand final.

Regardless of the reasons behind Hunt’s lacklustre start to the season, Boyd has increased his attacking contribution, finding the ball-playing form that made him one of the best fullbacks in the competition in his days at the Dragons.

The following play – which should be quite familiar to any rugby league devotee – shows Boyd’s skill as a ballplayer in glorious detail.

As we pick up the play the Titans already have a problem with Boyd folding into the attacking line to create a four on three featuring Boyd himself in prime position to ball-play, second-rower Matt Gillett heading back towards left side half Greg Bird (number 1) and James Roberts and Jordan Kahu still sitting deep aligned to the Titans left edge defenders John olive and Nene Macdonald.

However, even with the numbers advantage, the play will still require deft playmaking to succeed. As we spin it on we can see that Matt Gillett has run through the line and in doing so held Greg Bird in the process. This has left Olive and Macdonald faced with a three on two and one of those is James Roberts.

Understandably given his stature, and his earlier performance in this game, winger Nene Macdonald has rushed in to help in defence on Roberts as we can see in the final image. However in a smart move, Boyd eschews a pass to Roberts and instead throws a magnificent cut-out ball to winger Jordan Kahu who glides in to score.

The Broncos already have attacking weapons all over the park but if Boyd is going to chime in like this on a regular basis the team is going to become extremely difficult to defend.

First try scorer tip – Corey Oates
As promised in the first Thursday Night Forecast ahead of the Broncos v Eels season opener, if we’re previewing the Broncos and Corey Oates is on the wing he’s the first try scorer pick.

Prediction – Broncos and how!
On paper, this is about as big of a mismatch as we have seen all season. We have a bedraggled Dragons team, on a short turnaround, entering the lair of a team that is top of the table.

If a mediocre day from the Broncos was enough to handle the (surprisingly good) Titans away, one can only imagine what they will have in store for the lacklustre Dragons. To make matters worse the Dragons are only halfway through a two week Queensland sojourn with a game on the Gold Coast in Round 7 before they head home (well to the SFS at least) to tackle the Roosters.

The draw has not been kind to the Dragons and the Broncos will be downright mean. This one could be over early.

Shoe in of the Week

What’s it going to take for people to stop revisiting that grand final knock on again and again? global pandemic? Or maybe something worse like Shane Warne saying or doing anything really. Just wait for it, as soon as Hunt makes and error or puts in a poor kick someone in the broadcast team is taking us back to October 2015. Guaranteed.