Five talking points for Super Rugby Round 8

It’s another really interesting round of Super Rugby ahead of us this weekend, with a number of games of vital importance for both teams in the contest.

The Chiefs will remain on top of the table despite having the bye, which is certainly a fair reflection of their scintillating form over the first couple of months.

But below them, a number of key contenders go head to head, which is sure to deliver us a weekend of intriguing rugby. Here’s the talking points for Round 8:

The next real test for the Rebels?
The Waratahs in Sydney were a test for the Rebels, and the Hurricanes in Melbourne tonight is yet another one. And in truth, season 2016 is going to be full of tests for the Rebels.

I mentioned this yesterday in the tipping panel, that if the Rebels are going to genuinely take the next step toward a maiden finals berth, then this is exactly the sort of game they have to win consistently. All those teams around the Rebels on the table – currently the ‘Canes, Bulls, Sharks, Blues and Waratahs – are the teams the Rebels need to be consistently beating.

They lost to the Bulls in Round 2, so that chance is gone. The win over the Waratahs was important, not just for it being in Sydney, but that it also allowed the Rebels to open a gap and move up the table. A win over the Hurricanes won’t open a gap, but it will allow more table movement, quite possibly even displacing the ‘Canes in that final trans-Tasman wildcard spot.

Being able to name an unchanged side from that which beat the ‘Tahs is a nice bonus for Tony McGahan, and the bye will have allowed any niggles to be tended to. Nic Stirzaker didn’t see halftime in Sydney, but will be better for the run, and you get the feeling that if he and Jack Debreczini can win the battle of the halves with TJ Perenara and Beauden Barrett, that will go a long way toward deciding this game.

Equally, whoever of Debreczini and Barrett has the best night off the kicking tee will be crucial – both head into this match kicking at 68% success rates.

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‘Canes season on the line?
This seems like a funny thing to be asking of a team with a 4 and 2 record currently, but there is a bit of method to my madness. Diggercane, you’ll probably need to wipe off whatever you just spat all over your screen!

The ‘Canes are ‘seemingly’ back on track, with four straight wins under their belt, though the last three have involved putting 40+ points past the Jaguares, Kings, and Force.

But according to SANZAAR’s official stats, the Hurricanes are tackling with an 83% success rate, ranking them tenth overall. And the useful Vodacom Rugby app out of South Africa has them missing more than 18 tackles and making a similar number of handling errors per game, too.

Starting with the Rebels in Melbourne tonight, the Hurricanes then host the Chiefs next weekend, head to South Africa to play the Lions and Sharks, before returning home to host the Reds before the bye. They’ll then face the Highlanders before the June International window.

Now, you could make a decent case for the ‘Canes winning at least three of those six games to come, but you could just as easily make a case for them losing as many as four. And while 4 and 2 looks fine at the moment, how confident would Hurricanes’ types be feeling with a 6 and 6 record at the break?

The Beale/Folau show is on
It was mooted throughout the off-season, and the idea of Israel Folau playing at outside centre has been around for longer than that. At Super Rugby level at least, he’s done a lot of defending in the front line over the last 18 months or so. Now that he’s been named at 13, it’s going to be really interesting to see how it plays out – and indeed, whether it’s a one-off thing or an ongoing experiment.

There’s plenty of upside. It certainly gets Folau more ball, and that was generally a good thing when he played in the centres in his league days. Putting him straight off Beale only magnifies their combination, too, meaning the communication in defence between the Brumbies midfielders is going to be crucial.

But it’s not without risk. There won’t be anywhere near as much space for Folau to operate in, and even when playing fullback, teams have had success against the Waratahs when closing down Folau’s attacking space. It arguably puts more pressure on whoever will be defending inside Folau – Matt Carraro, probably – when Beale drops back. And as talented as Andrew Kellaway obviously is, there’s going to be a fair bit of pressure on him at the back in his starting debut, too.

Brumbies’ test of depth
Though they’re reasonably well equipped to cater for David Pocock’s suspension, the upsetting and shock retirement of Ita Vaea this week really changes the dynamic of the Brumbies’ forwards pack.

Jordan Smiler is a really handy backrower who I’ve got a lot of time for. He’s an excellent defender, and a strong ball-carrier, and he’s almost perfect off the bench in Super Rugby in that his flexibility allows him to cover all the loose forwards positions, and lock too, at a pinch.

But is he the Brumbies’ long-term solution at no.8? It’s something that probably won’t be answered on Saturday night, but will have to be answered before too long.

Jarrad Butler will become an option once Pocock returns; indeed, Pocock himself could become an option once he returns. But neither of them – and nor Smiler, really – offer anything like the wrecking ball carnage that Vaea often delivered with ball in hand. Vaea’s acceleration into contact often bought the Brumbies an extra metre or two over the gain line and with it, the ability to recycle quickly and move defensive lines backwards.

The sooner the Brumbies can replace that element of Vaea’s game, the healthier their forwards game and general attack will be.

Could a Lions win seal Africa 2?
Maybe not on its own, but a Lions win over the Stormers following a Sharks loss to the Blues in Auckland would create a gap within the conference of at least six points, and will certainly strengthen the Lions’ claims.

The next fortnight following sees the Lions play the Kings and then host the Hurricanes, while the Sharks’ New Zealand tour only gets tougher, heading to the Chiefs and then the Highlanders.

On current form, I can’t see how I’ll be tipping the Sharks for either of those games just as I haven’t this weekend (my own tipping form notwithstanding).

And when you consider that, it’s then not at all inconceivable that the Lions could win all three of the aforementioned games, too. So over the next three weeks, they could break out as far as 14 points – even more, with bonus points – ahead of the Sharks within the conference.

And that would take some catching.