We all enter a new season with certain preconceptions based on the form of the previous year, off-season additions and subtractions, and a bit of speculation.
But there comes a point in each season when it’s time to ditch those preconceptions and trust that what teams have shown us is who they really are.
For better or worse, Round 5 looks a lot like that time.
It started on Friday night, when the electric Adelaide Crows took the fight to defending champs in another outstanding game of footy, something that is fast becoming synonymous with the Crows.
Coming off three impressive wins, Adelaide fell agonisingly short against the Hawks, but lost no admirers. They look every bit a contender.
Things didn’t go so well for the Crows’ crosstown rivals on Saturday night. After being humiliated by the Giants in Round 4, the Power huffed and puffed all week, but couldn’t maintain the fight for long after a quarter-time scuffle that will see several Port players lighter in the pocket.
The Cats handed the Power their third loss by at least eight goals in four weeks. There’s no reason to think Ken Hinkley’s mob is anything more than mediocre.
Of course, the Dockers would kill for mediocre right now. Any hopes they had have turning their season around were destroyed yesterday when the plucky Blues made Fremantle the last winless team of the season.
The signs have been there for a month that the Dockers are a bad team, now they are impossible to ignore. How Ross Lyon handles the remaining 17 games will be fascinating.
Like Fremantle, the Tigers have been given the benefit of the doubt by some, but the disappointing form of the first month was franked at the MCG on Sunday night as Richmond proved no match for the improved Demons.
Trent Cotchin has faced plenty of criticism for his leadership this year, but the skipper can hold his head high after his 32-disposal, 20-contested possession performance against Melbourne.
The same can’t be said of star defender Alex Rance. Rance showed none of the qualities that earned him a place in the club’s leadership group when delivered a cowardly strike to a prone Jack Watts in the back of the head late in the loss. It was the action of a frustrated man, the kind of thing that happens late in the year when a player is fed up with the season. For Rance to do such a thing in Round 5 is indicative of the strife his club is in.
No such strife for the Demons, however. For the first time since 2011, Melbourne have won back-to-back games. Perhaps more significantly for the bigger picture though, their 129 points against Richmond meant it was the third-straight week they topped the ton – you have to go back to 2011 for the last time they did that, too.
The dour Demons of recent years appears no more. These Dees are still tenacious around the contest, but willing and able to whip the ball forward and hit the scoreboard – their ball movement is light years ahead of what it was eight months ago.
Just how good Melbourne are is yet to be seen, but apart from a tough-to-forgive slip-up against Essendon in Round 2, it seems pretty clear that the Demons are no longer a bad footy team – faint praise though that may be, it’s significant progress.
“Come at the king, you best not miss.” – Omar Little, The Wire
There’s more luck than we sometimes like to admit when it comes to deciding close games – a tricky bounce here, a dodgy decision there – but it’s more than just chance that has seen Hawthorn win three games in a row by three points.
So often tight matches are decided by mistakes rather than magic.
The Hawks are talented, mature, disciplined and confident – they don’t make many mistakes, particularly late.
Eventually they’ll lose a close one, but someone is going to have to beat them, because they’re unlikely to beat themselves.
Liam
Guest
"...a dodgy decision there..." A dodgy decision there, there and there; 3 wins. Gee, to be that lucky.
Michael Huston
Guest
I would also easily rule out Fremantle and Richmond. Fremantle have absolutely zero form to build on, compounded by injuries to their best players. Games against Hawthorn in Tasmania, Adelaide in Adelaide etc, plus history says Fremantle have got no chance. As for Richmond, they've been useless the entire time under Hardwick, but the evenness we speak of has meant they can't get away with being useless anymore.
John
Guest
Completely agree. When you look at the ladder, the only teams I can comfortably write off for September are Brisbane, St Kilda, Essendon and Carlton. Usually by round 5 you can easily eliminate 7-8 teams so this season is looking more competitive than most. Fremantle, Richmond, Collingwood and Port Adelaide have all had poor starts but all four have the ability to rebound. Melbourne are looking stronger than they have for many years and could thrive being under the radar. Adelaide are looking great whilst all the team currently in the 8 are looking good enough to make the 8. North Melbourne and the Dogs are both doing really well and I'm really looking forward to seeing them play on Friday Night. It's great to see so many teams being competitive. Even Carlton and Brisbane, who have been down the bottom for years are both more competitive than most would have thought
Adrian Polykandrites
Expert
It means to stamp something and make it official. Thanks for reading.
mattyb
Guest
Good question. A couple of people on here have become quite big on the dictionary in the past couple of weeks so this shall give them an opportunity to use it when actually asked and in context.
Michael Huston
Guest
All valid points, but again, this follows the media's trajectory of losers > winners. I certainly didn't have North Melbourne top of the ladder, and it is still early days and I don't expect them to finish first, but it's still impressive. Their forwards and midfields (who I've been critical of in the past) are all firing and their game-plan looks like it could seriously threaten a team like Hawthorn. I certainly didn't have Adelaide being such a formidable team. I knew they'd do well, because their list has always been solid the last few years, but I thought under a new coach they would take a while to get going. But that's two weeks in a row now they've looked arguably better than the two best teams of the last five years. That's a huge step-up for Adelaide, even if their ladder position doesn't reflect. I certainly didn't have Melbourne nearing the finals. I thought they'd improve and start winning the games they're supposed to win, but I didn't expect them to be able to become such a high-scoring team. Paul Roos has really done some great work to get this previously-scrappy team to adapt to a free-flowing, hard-running side with plenty of goal-scoring options. And even though I didn't expect Sydney to drop like so many, I certainly didn't expect them to come in to 2016 having rectified so many of their issues from last year and being so hard and tough and reliable across four quarters when they usually start the season so slow. They honestly haven't played one poor quarter of football this year. So credit to John Longmire and co for rejuvenating this team going into the start of the year. I know stories of sinking clubs and coaches inevitable doom are what the media thrives on, but it's a discredit to all the coaches and players who have worked hard to improve when they get overshadowed by perennial let-down stories.
Tony Tea
Guest
Serious question: what exactly does "franked" mean in the context of the Tigers' "disappointing form of the first month was franked at the MCG on Sunday night"? Dermott has said it about 300 times in recent weeks, but I looked it up at Dictionary.com and couldn't work it out.