The Roar
The Roar

Adrian Polykandrites

Expert

Joined February 2016

192k

Views

129

Published

173

Comments

Adrian loves to settle into an elevated seat looking down on the wing and regularly commutes between Docklands and the MCG. You can follow him on twitter at @adrian_poly where he complains too much about how poorly footy is broadcast on TV. He likes to rank things.

Published

Comments

I reckon the bye is overplayed in terms of its impact on the second week; the comp is just really even now. We had three of four losing qualifying finalists go out in straight sets in the two seasons before the bye.

Straight-sets exits await Geelong and Brisbane

Pick 3 is better than pick 8 and pick 3 is better than pick 18; it’s not really a matter of opinion.

The Crows must axe some of their favourite sons

It’s a fair question on Davis vs McGovern. McGovern had better defensive 1v1 numbers and got a bit more of the ball while also using it better in my view. It’s close though.

Who's set for All Australian honours?

Thanks for sharing your first-hand experience Tom. I was told by another Canberran that many turned out on the night specifically to be part of the experience – and probably left at half time because of said temperatures. I was at a Ballarat game last year, standing on the hill with the rain and wind smacking me in the face where it “felt like” minus-4.5, so perhaps I’m just a glutton for punishment.

The highs and lows of a long AFL season

Right you are, Sachit. Many thanks.

Essendon vs Hawthorn: Friday night forecast

Young teams usually stink. Sydney are young and they stink. I didn’t realise it was controversial to suggest the team on the bottom of the ladder was bad.

Sydney vs Essendon: Friday night forecast

Fair call. I should have written “strong-bodied” or “mature”. None of them are small, but not all “big” in this era of footy.

Port Adelaide vs North Melbourne: Friday night forecast

Great point about Beams, Peter. I shouldn’t have missed that. Perhaps I never stopped thinking of him as a Collingwood player.

Collingwood vs Geelong: Friday night forecast

Nowhere did I say or suggest that. It’s all well and good to disagree with people in these things – that’s half the fun – but five people who watch a lot of footy thought long and hard and independently rated Rance between 1 and 7. Maybe, just maybe, the bloke who’s anchored one of the best defensive units in footy over the past two seasons is a bit better than you give him credit for.

The Roar AFL Top 50 2019: 10-1

Probably because their equity ratings value long kicking, which McGovern is better at than Rance. You won’t get a bad word about McGovern from me. Those same ratings have McEvoy and Ryder half a dozen spots ahead of Cripps and Bontempelli; they’re imperfect.

The Roar AFL Top 50 2019: 10-1

More Alex Rance stats:
Alex Rance set new H&A records in 2018 for intercept possessions per game and total intercept possessions. His team was No.1 in the league for points from turnovers.

The Roar AFL Top 50 2019: 10-1

Fyfe might miss a few games. Mitchell will miss the entire season. The point of the exercise is to value guys for 2019 and for 2019 Mitchell has no value.

The Roar AFL Top 50 2019: 10-1

I can see the case for Gawn in the top five, though none of the five voters had him there.

The Roar's 2019 AFL Top 50: 20-11

I’d suggest you wait for the entire 50 to be revealed before slamming the exercise as a Victorian love-fest.

The Roar's 2019 AFL Top 50: 30-21

Low-quality shots are certainly somewhat to blame for the Dogs’ inaccuracy, but Robert’s numbers account for the expected outcome of each shot and the Dogs are still grossly underperforming.

Collingwood vs Western Bulldogs: Friday Night Forecast

Jesus. No. I’m talking about the 22 players from each side that played last week. The teams and their experience are at the link below if you care to educate yourself. I’m done trying.
https://www.afltables.com/afl/stats/games/2018/070820180421.html

Western Bulldogs vs Carlton: Friday Night Forecast

I know I should move on from this, but the Bulldogs had almost 500 games less experience than Fremantle in the game between the sides in round five and were on average more than a year younger. What point has been made?

Western Bulldogs vs Carlton: Friday Night Forecast

Come on mate, you literally said to me, “You are talking about the Freo squad. I am talking about the team named this week.”

Anyway, I didn’t come on here to argue about Freo’s list. I just wanted to clarify that the stats in the article were correct. Have a good one.

Western Bulldogs vs Carlton: Friday Night Forecast

Don, I’m not saying the Dockers aren’t young. I don’t think anyone is saying that. But the numbers you’re presenting aren’t true. Fair enough you’re counting 49-gamer Hamling as under 50 games, that makes 12 players with less than 50 games experience in the named team to face West Coast.

Hamling 49
McCarthy 45
Blakely 38
Tucker 34
Langdon 29
Pearce 26
Ryan 16
Brayshaw 5
Banfield 5
Cerra 4
Crowden 4
Duman 1

That’s 12 named players under 50 games before the bounce, eight under 30 and five under 10.

Western Bulldogs vs Carlton: Friday Night Forecast

The concerning part is that most of the guys in the 26-29 range – Jones, Lamb, Phillips, O’Shea, Mullett – aren’t much good. Ideally players at that age are in their prime and doing the heavy lifting.

I think the Blues are on the right path, but there’s still a lot of work to do to get the balance right.

Unfortunately, you can’t really rush development, those guys in the 18-21 range need games and time together.

Western Bulldogs vs Carlton: Friday Night Forecast

Don Freo, I’m talking about the teams named this week and as Freo are playing Sunday they have named a squad of 26, not yet their 22.

An average age of 22 would be incredibly young and very rare, you’d have to go back to the Giants in their second season to find a team that young.

Where are you getting your information from? The Dockers have 13 players in their 26 for Sunday with fewer than 50 games and that’s before they cut four players: https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/afl_team_selections#9567

Western Bulldogs vs Carlton: Friday Night Forecast

I assume you’re looking at the entire list, I’m talking about the team being put on the park.

Western Bulldogs vs Carlton: Friday Night Forecast

Fremantle an average age of 24 years and eight months and average games of 81.5, but that’s a squad of 26 so it’s likely to end up a little older and more experienced once it’s cut to 22. They were a little more than a year older on average than the Dogs in round 5 with 12 players with fewer than 50 games compared with the Dogs’ 11; Freo had four 150-gamers, the Dogs none.

Western Bulldogs vs Carlton: Friday Night Forecast

Unfortunately this was written before I knew Lynch was out. I wasn’t confident in my tip then and am even less so now. Crows are great at plugging holes but there comes a tipping point and Lynch might be it.

Essendon vs Adelaide: Friday night forecast

Can we get the complete list thus far at the bottom of the piece?

The Roar's 2018 AFL Top 50: 40-31