Is Rafael Nadal back to his best?

The tennis world had become predictable. The big four, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray had become big three with Murray not fulfilling his promise.

Thereafter the big three too had become only the magnificent one, with Djokovic crushing everything in his path.

2015 had given us an year of frightening dominance as Djokovic won almost everything. His only opposition seemed to be an inconsistent Stan Wawrinka and an ageing Federer. Murray seemed lost. Rafa Nadal seemed to be injured and losing against unknown opposition with sad consistency.

It is in this context that Rafa winning at Monte Carlo and Barcelona 2016 is potentially extremely significant.

What has Rafa achieved by winning at Monte Carlo 2016
Rafa by winning Monte Carlo 2016 has now won 28 Masters and has equalled Novak Djokovic’s record. He equalled Roger Federer’s record of 66 outdoor titles.

He already had the incredible record of eight Monte Carlo wins in a row, which has not been done in any tournament by any player.

Now he added a ninth Monte Carlo trophy to his glittering collection of silverware. It was an extremely important win as it was his first Masters since 2014.

What has Rafa achieved by winning at Barcelona 2016
Rafa here too has his ninth title. He has also equalled Guillermo Vilas’s record of most clay court titles record of 49. Interestingly Rafa had actually broken that record when he won his 46th clay court title in Buenos Aires and ATP had acknowledged.

However later ATP came up with four titles of Vilas that were on clay but they thought were on hard courts or grass.

So the current tally is 49 each to Rafa and Vilas, Surely Rafa will easily cross this and be the first to win 50 clay court titles.

Rafa also now owns the record for maximum outdoor titles with 67, by crossing Federer’s 66, which he had equalled by winning at Monte Carlo

More importantly, Rafa has won the titles by defeating tough competitors along the way. At Monte Carlo, Wawrinka was in the way as early in the Quarter-finals and Murray in the semi-finals. He won against both of them and also defeated the dangerous Monfils in the finals What was heartening was that he fought back against both Murray and Monfils.

In Barcelona too there was an important win in the quarter finals versus Fognini who had defeated him twice last year, and once at Barcelona itself. In the final Rafa prevailing against Nishikori was significant since though Rafa is a eight-time Champion here, Nishi had won the recent two.

For Rafa, what was heartening is that the shots were there and so was the fighting spirit. He now has three top ten victories, in fact top six victories in the last ten days which will give him confidence

100 finals and golden quarter
This too is a landmark by itself. Monte Carlo was Rafa’s 100th Final and 68th Title. Barcelona triumph was his 101st Final and 69th title.

The months of April to June are the best ever for Rafa and can be called his golden quarter. Not surprisingly, half of his finals have come in the April-June Period from the European clay court season (Monte Carlo to Roland Garros).

The list of finals are ten at Monte Carlo, nine at Roland Garros, nine at Rome, nine at Barcelona and eight Hamburg/Madrid.

Only the clay Masters event has been taken into account and 2005 Madrid when it was a post USO event and 2015 Hamburg when it was an ATP500 event played in August have not been counted. For the full three months period (April-June), we can add four Miami finals (on hard courts), one Queen’s (grass) and one Stuttgart (grass) makes it 51 finals. So half of his finals have come between April-June period.

With this logic, we can look forward to a good show at Rome, Madrid and at Roland Garros. Wimbledon too starts in June. Shall we see a rejuvenated Rafa here too, where he hasn’t done well in the last few years?

Note of caution
At Monte Carlo, there was one important opponent whom Rafa did not face while lifting the trophy. Novak Djokovic had crashed out early. He did not play Barcelona.

This in no way takes away anything from Rafa’s triumph. However it is also pertinent that off late Djokovic has had the measure of Rafa with ten wins out of last 11 matches and six straight set wins in a row to lead their fascinating rivalry 25-23.

Who would have thought it would be 25-23 when it was 15-22 just three years back?

Therefore to be truly back, Rafa needs a couple of wins versus Djokovic and if he does so, then anything is once again possible for this most likeable of champions.

He will once again firmly be in the race to cross Federer’s 17 majors.