A number cruncher is predicting a return to the glory days for Australia at the Rio Olympics, tipping a fourth-place finish on the overall medal tally.
Simon Gleave has been working the Olympic numbers for four years, putting them through a data-processing program as the head of analysis for US-based Gracenote, a sports and entertainment data provider.
» VIEW THE OLYMPIC MEDAL TALLY HERE
Gleave is picking the United States to top the table with 42 gold and 102 medals overall, with China second with 31 gold and 78 overall – the same order as London four years ago.
He has predicted Russia to finish third with 22, followed by Australia with 18, one ahead of Great Britain.
That would be a massive improvement on Australia’s 10th-place finish in London and match the placing in Athens in 2004 and Sydney in 2000, when the host country also finished fourth.
It’s one behind Australia’s best-ever finish of third, back at the 1956 Games in Melbourne.
Australian Olympic officials are more circumspect, eyeing a fifth-place finish.
Gleave listed a number of break-out athletes including American swimmer Michael Phelps, who would collect five more gold medals and a bronze, bringing his overall total to 28 with a career gold-medal haul of 23.
“In terms of medal-count and order, it’s going to be close to what we have,” said Gleave, who in 2012 – using a less sophisticated program – predicted within four medals the results of 16 of the top 20 teams.
Gleave will issue updates again in June, July and August, just days before the August 5 opening.
Punter
Guest
In Campbell sisters, Seebolm, Mckeon, McEvoy, Larkin and Horton, the Aussies have some seriously good swimmers. I think 5 golds is conservative, 8 is maybe wishful thinking but not beyond these swimmers.
jamesb
Guest
Gee James, that's a big ask for Australia to win 8 gold. I'll be comfortable in the 5-7 range. The team is capable of it. Can't wait for Rio. Begins 5th of August. Just three months to go.
jameswm
Roar Guru
What will Horton win? 1500 or 400? Isn't there a Chinese guy 5 seconds faster over 1500? I had Horton in "other". Ditto McKeon. McEvoy could win two golds the way he's going, and we could easily win both 4x1 frees. The Campbell sisters could go 2-2-0 even. Larkin won both golds last year and with he and Seebohm, I was being conservative if anything.
Punter
Guest
James, that's 8 golds, that is amazing & you have not included Horton or McKeon, especially Horton who I predict will win 1 gold for sure & gunning for 2. I too think we are entering a golden age in Australian swimming on the back of McEvoy, Campbell sister, Seebohm, larkin, Horton & McKeon (Emma). Watch out for Wombat, telling you anything can happen except Aussies winning gold.
jameswm
Roar Guru
Our swimmers are back I reckon. McEvoy - 1-1-0 Campbell sisters - 2-1-1 relays - 3-1-1 - our freestylers are fantastic and deep Seebohm - 1-1-0 Mitch Larkin - 1-1-0 Other - 0-2-2 Overall - 8-5-4, in swimming alone. Add walkers, Sally Pearson, hockey, women's basketball, sailing, and others. Are they predicting 12-13 gold?