As a proud supporter of Hawthorn since the mid-1970s, I’m seeking answers over a growing concern.
Throughout the ’70s, I recall hearing the scores on the ‘Around the grounds’ local radio coverage in Hobart. A couple of times I watched the Hawks on the telly in grand finals versus North Melbourne, resulting in five and three-goal victories respectively.
Each week the final score seemed, and in reality was, the only thing the fans and coaches cared about.
Fast forward to the present and the available statistics on players and teams during and after a game are getting out of control. Folk in the media and the coaches seem totally consumed by them. It’s doing my head in.
Then there’s the terminology being bandied around: defence, offence, D50, one percenters, intent, scoreboard pressure, corridor, execution (good grief!).
Don’t get me wrong, I love a new phrase as much as the next guy. But I remember ‘inside’ or ‘outside’ simply representing where you were on a given day in the school holidays.
But back to all this available data. The main category people commentate on is a thing called ‘contested possessions’ (CP), which forms the subject of my gripe.
Some say you can’t expect to win matches if you lose the CP count. One particular former North Melbourne enforcer swears by them. He put up a graphic the other day indicating that Hawthorn had lost the CP count three weeks in a row, which in his words “is a major concern”. Many other analysts share his opinion. I hope it’s not contagious?
Curiosity got the better of me so I did a bit of research on Hawthorn’s recent efforts in the area of CP. Regrettably as it turns out, as I too am rather concerned.
I concentrated on Hawthorn’s CP count for the seasons 2013 to 2015, figuring the past three years were as good a starting point as any.
Anyway, the results are now in. And Alastair Clarkson, you are on notice, sir!
After a commendable effort in 2013, when the Hawks won the CP count 17 times and only lost eight, things took a turn for the worse in 2014, winning the count on 14 occasions – losing an alarming 11 times! A worrying trend, perhaps?
By 2015 the rot truly had set in, winning the CP count 12 times while losing 14.
Honestly, I’m blowed if I know what Clarkson, the coaching staff, and the players were doing during 2013 to 2015 when the contested ball was there to be won – twiddling their thumbs, perhaps?
2016 is now turning into a disaster, as we’ve only won the CP count once in the first five rounds!
From Round 12, 2015, the CP tally stands at four wins and 15 losses. This past three years will be a case of ‘what might have been’ unless the Hawks address this crucial area of CP, immediately.
Hawthorn lost seven consecutive CP counts heading into last year’s grand final. The weeks leading up to the previous two grand finals were similarly disappointing, with the Hawks losing the CP six weeks in ten in 2014, and seven weeks out of 11 in 2013. Shocking grand final preparation. Wasted opportunities, wasted years!
How I long for the CP returns that the Hawks enjoyed in 2012, winning the count 14 weeks out of 15 leading into the grand final prior to lining up against the Swans. Now that’s the sort of momentum I want to see before a decider!
And don’t try and fob me off with the fact that since 2013 Hawthorn has won 26 of 37 games when losing the CP count. Winning isn’t everything – it’s contested possessions the fans demand!
Really, the seven 15-goal victories throughout the last three years are completely hollow, as the contested possession count was lost on every single occasion.
I mean, we were beaten soundly by 16 in the CP count that day we thrashed the Swans by 89 points during the 2013 semi-finals. I was left scratching my head! I’m amazed no-one from the media picked Clarkson up on this failure following the win!
In a nutshell, things are dire.
Please, someone tell me that I have nothing to worry about – that the CP isn’t all that it’s cracked up to be and you just need to worry about slotting the ball through the big sticks.
Because if that isn’t the case, and the Hawks are unable to stem the tide and stop regularly losing the CP count, the club will end up a laughing stock, with only premierships to show for its efforts.
Dean
Guest
Hubris, then a fall. How utterly predictable was Saturday's loss? The problem for Hawthorn in not winning contested ball is that they have a lot of outside players who rely on Mitchell, Lewis and Shiels feeding them the ball. Smith, Hill and Rioli are liabilities when things are going against the hawks and that's just the experienced guys. Hartung is a liability even when he gets the ball and worse without it. These floggings are going to continue as the hawks midfield slows and others speed up.
Ian_W
Guest
Hawthorn has been built around playing bruise-free finesse football. When this fails, when you need to play hard, accountable footy based around hard-ball gets, thats when contested possessions are needed ... and tend to be clocked up, because you arent quietly wandering 10 yards from the closest opponent to be hit on the chest with a bullet pass. Now, Hawthorn were good enough, and well drilled enough at milking frees, to get away with playing this style of bruise-free football. Were. Now, the rest of the league has caught up, and we need to fin d out if Hawthorn can win their own ball, as well as use it. Now is when contested ball becomes important - when a slow, aging Hawthorn side is up against it, and needs to put itself in position where their elite kicking skills matter.
Damian Rutledge
Roar Rookie
Will do - cheers ?
Damian Rutledge
Roar Rookie
Great comments - that all makes good sense, Michael... I'll even let the call on Spangher & Schoey through to the keeper! But yes, a very skillful side over the duration but not as dominant as say Cats of 2007 or even Bombers of 2000 who were never not going to win flag that year. Hawks certainly looked like mere mortals today though ? Wide open the race for the flag. Reckon you could nominate 5-6 to win it and still miss right now. Ta for feedback. Sorry I didn't see it earlier when you posted it. Damian
Damian Rutledge
Roar Rookie
Thanks Liam - kind words. Cheered me up a bit after the thumping at Spotless Stadium earlier today ☺ Unfortunately it wasn't just the CP Hawks were thrashed in so yes, we await the "Hawks are finished/cooked" headlines. Hunger is just not there at the moment. GWS will beat a lot of good sides this year though. Credit to them.
D Fitz
Roar Rookie
Damian, Congratulations on a good first topic and article that generated considerable discussion. Keep up the good work
DamianR
Guest
Ta for the encouragement! Appreciate it. This was my very first article after lurking on here for a few years and having many drafts in my head that I never finalised and posted, so it's good to actually complete one, post it and get a bit of debate going whilst engaging with a few Hawks fans + opposition ones.
Michael Huston
Guest
If I was a Hawthorn supporter, I wouldn't be upset at all if their best 22 went out and sat on their asses every week in the centre square. They've won the last three flags, even more amazing when you consider I still maintain they were at their absolute best around 2012/2013. It gets even MORE amazing when you consider they have had out and out spuds playing in their premiership teams, like Spangher and Schoenmakers. I have always said that Hawthorn have never been that crazily good to me, because in my eyes, they play at the level expected of professional footballers who are paid hundreds of thousands of dollars a year. Yeah they have a bit of star-power with the likes of Cyril Rioli, and they have uber-consistent performers such as Mitchell, Burgoyne, Birchall etc. But the one thing that's always given them an edge is the fact that they know how to kick the football. Simple things that seventeen other clubs occasionally falter with, Hawthorn rarely falter with. They are playing in an era where forwards don't know how to kick goals from directly in front, 30m out anymore, and where even handballs go astray now, let alone kicks (don't get Luke Darcy started on this though.) I think it may be why Hawthorn look a little more mortal this year. Not because they have declined in any way, shape or form, but because their opponents (at least Adelaide and the Bulldogs a few weeks back) don't routinely fumble the ball as much as in seasons past. Even Sydney, who are turnover merchants, have improved in this area and are reaping the rewards. I think it has decreased the gap between Hawthorn and the other clubs, it's just a shame it took so long for basic skills to be a priority for teams.
New York Hawk
Guest
They must be including the handball drills pre-game in those Richmond numbers.
New York Hawk
Guest
thank you Dean for pointing out how ludicrous Paul D's comment was.
New York Hawk
Guest
Here's one stat that Brisbane will always win comfortably - biggest salary cap free-kick for a premiership team in history. And amusingly you are occupying all three positions on the podium!
Pope Paul VII
Guest
Bingo! I don't think Kingy will bother explaining as he's still NM to the core. Unlike the other NM King. Old Duck still tips against NM, in these big games. love your work Damo.
Damian Rutledge
Roar Rookie
And right on cue, that weapon delivers a 166-151 win to the Doggies in the much-hyped Contested Possessions! Lead the CP count all night. Were never travelling like winners... all night. And just like that, the Doggies don't look top 4 material at all.
Kurt
Guest
It came completely out of the blue. How could you be expected to plan for such a black swan event, there's just no precedent. Plus it was 32 degrees and bright sunshine last year, conditions that a Perth based team just isn't used to. No doubt about it, that was what cost the Eagles the game in 2015, not key forwards fumbling chest marks when clear in the forward 50.
Dean
Guest
Hawthorn and West Coast played each other on 4 occasions in the space of about 8-10 rounds of football spanning from near the end of last years regular season and round 2 this year. 2 games at home, 2 Games away each. The result were Hawks winning 3/4. Hawks won by roughly from memory 15 points and lost by 35 points so that's a points difference of 20 Points at Subiaco with the bonus of 1 game been a win. West Coast played twice at the MCG and lost on both occasions by 46 points. That is a points difference of 92 points. Confirmed Hawks the better team with the venue not been the reason for the humiliating losses. End of debate... Your welcome.
Pope Paul VII
Guest
and begrudging congrats for 76 and 78. Dodgy Hodgey and Lewi are high on the hate list though, so they must be pretty good..
Dean
Guest
A Lions fan talking about advantages, that's rich. No ridiculous draft concessions, no merger with extended player roster, no inflated salary cap and there would be no Brisbane Lion Premierships.
Dean
Guest
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Spudweiser
Guest
Anyone mention how predictable and hypocritical you are? At every opportunity you point out the worn-out old tedious argument that Hawthorn has a distinct / unfair advantage with the GF being played at the G, but you conveniently forget the salary cap concessions, your pretty much guaranteed 11 wins at home during the year and generally being propped by the AFL, including being gifted the best coach in the game at the time.
Liam
Guest
Magnificent article. The reliance for most teams on contested possessions and clearances is different between teams, and most of the media is too foolish to realise that some statistics are more important for some sides than others. This firmly tongue in cheek comment on this is thoroughly what should be said when someone starts saying it's the end of the Hawks just because they start - or continue - to lose clearances.