Round 7 AFL tips and best bets

Last week wasn’t too bad. I tipped Greater Western Sydney as the value team of the round to get up, and did they do that or what?

Here are my tips for Round 7.

Hawthorn
I tipped them because they’re playing Richmond. The Hawks are going to be very, very unsociable this week after that embarrassing loss to GWS.

Young gun James Sicily has already played some great games for the Hawks so far. He’s just one more impressive game away from getting a Rising Star nod. Could it be this week? At 21-1 prior to this round starting, he’s way overs and worth a few dollars in anticipation of a solid game against the Tigers this Friday night.

If he gets the Rising Star nomination, he’ll come in by half. Let the bet ride or cash out to make a small, but tidy profit.

Collingwood
They’re the most disappointing team in the competition. I have false hopes each and every week. I don’t rate them as a bottom four side, yet they play half a game each week like that’s where they should be.

They’re capable of much better. This catch-up football has to stop. Newsflash: The game starts in the first quarter, not after halftime.

False hopes again? Yep, I’m tipping them (with no confidence) to halt the Blues’ winning streak at two in a row.

Geelong
At home, the Cats will be too good for West Coast. Despite the Eagles’ dominant win over Collingwood last week, they were on their home turf and they still looked shaky at times.

The Magpies got off to a dismal start, yet the Eagles allowed them to get back to within ten points, before putting their foot down and pulling away again late.

Once the Eagles pack their bags and fly the nest, they’re just not the same team. At home, the Cats will be too good. I’m on Geelong at the current line of -12.5, it’s a great bet!

Sydney
It was a hard slog in the wet against Brisbane last week, but this week the Swans are back at the SCG and playing Essendon.

If Sydney don’t win this one by 60-plus, they shouldn’t be thinking about finals footy. No excuses. None!

Franklin should kick ten goals. Young gun Callum Mills will be a hot favourite to prove why he deserves a Rising Star nod for round 7. He’s already come right in to 6-1. Likewise Tom Papley, who got the Rising Star nod in Round 5, is still showing 16-1. Top value for a player already nominated. George Hewett is also value at 67-1 having kicked three goals last weekend.

Gold Coast
After an embarrassing triple-digit loss to the Cats, the Suns are back at home and should win over Melbourne. The only reason I’m tipping the Suns is because they’re on their home deck, and Melbourne just stopped playing last week.

With seven goals, Jesse Hogan kicked almost half of Melbourne’s total score. Melbourne may have played half a game of footy, but the Suns didn’t play at all last week against Geelong. I have to pick one of them, so Gold Coast it is.

Adelaide
Etihad Stadium is the Dogs’ happy hunting ground, but with injuries creeping into the kennel, I see Adelaide getting this one. It’ll be close for most of the game.

A fast, tough, hopefully high-scoring contest, this is my game of the round.

GWS
The scoring machines of the competition! After absolutely smacking the Hawks last weekend, the Giants will be strutting their stuff at Domain Stadium against the win-less Fremantle Dockers.

This could get ugly for Freo, making for seven straight losses.

North Melbourne
Drew Petrie’s 300th game and the Kangaroos are on top of the ladder. A perfect start to the season. There’s lots to celebrate if you’re a Roos supporter!

North will have to work for this win. The Saints love Etihad and this one could be closer than people think. North should get over the line. That said, milestone games are notorious for being a jinx. Still, I’m sticking with North.

Port Adelaide
If an injury-ravaged Port Adelaide can beat Richmond away from home, they can certainly take care of Brisbane at Adelaide Oval.

No doubt, the Lions were gallant against the Swans last week, but the wet conditions evened the playing field. There was little skill involved. It was a hard slog for both teams. If conditions were dry, the Swans would have won by a decent margin.

Port Adelaide will be full of confidence after rolling the Tigers at the MCG. Brisbane just lost a close, hard game and they don’t travel well.

The Power to make it two in a row, despite their injuries.

Best Round 7 bets
Lowest scoring team of the week: Essendon – $2.50
Highest margin of the week: Sydney/Essendon – $2.25
Most goals: Lance Franklin – $3.25

Best multi-bet
Hawthorn -25
Collingwood H2H
Geelong -12.5
Sydney 40+
GWS H2H
Odds: $5.49

Rising Star watch: James Sicily (Hawthorn), Tom Papley (Sydney), Callum Mills (Sydney) and George Hewett (Sydney).