Put your house on it: Safe bets on the swimming at the Olympics

My bet is that nobody gives a tinker’s if you want to back a backstroker or have a flutter on the fencing, come the Rio Olympics later this year.

So here’s my two bob’s worth on what’s good value in Rio, at least in the pool. Not that I’ll be taking the plunge myself, either in the water or with the online markets, since we swimmers are generally tight with our money.

» VIEW THE OLYMPIC MEDAL TALLY HERE

Even if I were a betting man, I suspect I wouldn’t be bothered backing a slight favourite for a modest return, because if I wanted a few extra crumbs I could clock off work an hour later, without the risk.

No, I’m sure there are only two types of wager that would excite me. I’d either bet my house for a car, or my car for a house, so you can see why I don’t bet.

I once had the privilege of meeting the colourful racing character Eddie ‘The Fireman’ Birchley. He stank of eau de cologne, you could see your reflection in the points of his Florsheims, and he exuded the kind of bracing bonhomie only men who glory in living on the edge can exude.

Birchley only believed in backing favourites. Actually, hot, sizzling, favourites, and I still don’t know if this had anything to do with him being called ‘The Fireman’.

These were horses that couldn’t lose, but the odds were so short that you had to put your house on to win a car. You could say Birchley won a lot of cars. He might have crashed a couple eventually, but that’s another story.

In Rio there are very, very few such bets. The first is for American teenager Katie Ledecky to win the 800m freestyle. She is 12 or 13 seconds ahead of the world this year. Did I say nearly half a pool length? The field is a bit closer in the 400m, and if the bookie twisted my arm I might throw this in too. But I wouldn’t let him include the 200m, because the 100m girls sometimes paddle this far from shore and can put up quite a fight.

Regardless of how highly touted Australia’s gold medal chances are, none is nearly as ‘house worthy’ as Ledecky. Cameron McEvoy is the best in the world this year by almost a second in the 100m freestyle, but remember he is only a tenth or so better than James Magnussen’s best, and luckless James was a close second in London.

Likewise, Mitch Larkin, Emily Seebohm, Mack Horton, the Campbell girls, Cate and Bronte, and the 4x100m girls’ freestyle relay are all at the top of the current heap, but none is house worthy, though the relay must be knocking on the door.

A few months ago I would have rated the Hungarian ‘Iron Lady’ Katinka Hosszu duplex worthy in the 400m medley, but London gold medallist Ye Shiwen is showing recent glimpses of her old form.

As far as the swimming medal count goes, I would put my house on Australia winning at least two gold medals. Another free car. And because we could actually win as many as nine gold medals, I would put my car down to win a house for five golds.

Apart from Ledecky, there is a strange hush surrounding American swimming. Michael Phelps has been doing world top three times, but only the US trials in late June will show if he is really capable of adding to his gold stack.

South African Chad Le Clos has been closing in on Phelps’ 100m butterfly time and Hungarian Lazlo Czeh has been the form 200m butterfly performer. Online markets seem to be waiting for the US trials, because very few races are yet available.

As for me, no doubt after the Olympics I’ll be thinking I could have won the odd BMW if I’d gone over to sport’s dark side, but I wouldn’t have enjoyed the swimming at all. And neither would I recommend it to anyone else. The dark side, that is.