Is the Carlton rebuild a miracle or a mirage?

An honest article from a Carlton supporter. As rare as hen's teeth. But oh so on-the-money.

Mirage

I too was critical of Carlton and had many doubts but I am a happy supporter. Not because we have had three wins on the trot (that certainly helps) but because we give it a go, and the team and coach are on the same page. I feel the culture of the club is changing from one of buying success to one of let's be serious about a rebuild. I want to see Carlton drop this big four 16 premierships crap that has held us back for years. I want to see a Carlton who is honest about who and where they are, and I am starting to see that. I don't care if we are in the bottom four for a few years as I want Carlton to learn patience. I would love to look back in years to come and said we did it the hard way; patiently working our way up from the bottom to hopefully achieve the ultimate success. Instead of peering over the fence at our three cousins and saying they got Malthouse so we should get him, or they sack coaches and eat their own so we should, we should look down the road to St Kilda or the Bulldogs and learn the art of patient rebuilding. I think we are finally doing that and it is exciting.

Well said Hal - prior to the season the argument could be made the blues weren't going to be much good, I didn't agree with the level of negativity but at least the argument could be made, as the evidence rolls in week after week it makes it impossible to stick to the pre-season mis-conceptions.

I must admit I doubted Carlton would win a game at the start of the season yet I have seen the improvement as the season progresses.Their structure is so much better than last year. Their endeavor at the football can't be questioned and I like the way they hunt in packs. They have a long way to go but they have turned the good ship Carlton around and are heading in the right direction under Bolton.

I sadly hadn't had a chance to change my tips last week (due to heading off for a long weekend on the Friday) - I'd noted the ins and outs and Carlton just looked much more organised in my mind compared to Collingwood. On one of the radio stations one of the Collingwood players spoke about how on the ground Carlton seemed more organised with greater on field leadership, about where to go, how to maintain the structures etc. So - against Essendon and Collingwood they have managed to look better and Freo was perhaps just sad for a Freo team totally deflated the week before after they'd thrown everything they had at North in the hope of kick starting their year. So - Carlton against Port this week have the chance again to appear more organised. However - I doubt they can sustain it - in reality they outlasted Essendon, and held on against a wasteful Collingwood in the last term last week. The mirage is no mirage - it's real - against these opposition Carlton can sustain it. They now have something very elusive - confidence - and perhaps developing a thirst and hunger and expectation for the win. However - Port should be too good this week (by about a goal a qtr) and next week North should get the job done (by about 6 goals). But confidence is a funny bed partner.

Mattyb - " I’m not budging and neither are you." See this is the issue - we have alternate positions - to support my position I have presented stats, demonstrated that the blues have exceeded your expectations in terms of wins, shown they have improved their percentage and pointed to media consensus - to support your view you have pointed to your view. And when you get to the point where you can't even admit that Weitering has been impressive enough to fit your "jumped out" criteria (let alone anyone else) it becomes pretty clear "your view" has absolutely no credibility. As I said your are entitled to your opinion - but your opinion is not equal to mine. Also think on this - perhaps if you were more willing to budge and accept things such as stats and media views you might actually learn something

Havnt said any harsh words regarding Carlton Macca. Said Weitering looks promising but I thought that about Georgiadis once to. I wouldn't actually be expecting much improvement as such this year. I think Bolton is currently teaching a fair amount about defence,will move into free flowing football when he thinks their ready. I think that's good,I think improvement can come quickly when all the element have been taught. No improvement yet for me unfortunately but certainly not going backwards. I'm sure many people think they have improved,some even genuinely,go discuss it with them if it means so much for you to hear. I'm not budging and neither are you. I have my thoughts on Carltons improvement,it's not that important though I don't even barrack for them. If I supported Carlton I'd assume I would be getting more enjoyment from them this year as I'm sure you are and I think that's great.

"No players have jumped out sorry Macca. Weitering looks promising,fair way to go,no jumping has occurred to me." I think that comment pretty neatly sums up the issue - it isn't the blues ability that is the problem - it is the ability of the observer. You might want to think about whether it is actually the media and the stats the don't make sense or just you.

No players have jumped out sorry Macca. Weitering looks promising,fair way to go,no jumping has occurred to me. Sorry,havnt seen what I'd call improvement,not interested in what the media say,don't read it or watch the childish programmes. Might see some improvement in the coming weeks on the back of confidence which is important. Big couple of weeks coming up for the Blues though. Improvement is certainly attainable.

Mattyb - so to summarise even by the measures you are happy with, the blues have exceeded your expectations in terms of wins for the full year well and truly before we even get to the half way mark, the "percentage" measure shows significant improvement and the blues have clearly had "players jump out and have me think,gee he looks alright." (Weitering if no one else) and yet you can't bring yourself to admit the blues have actually improved, you can only say "on the verge of showing some genuine improvement"? If we then throw in the clear statistical improvements and the unanimous media view the evidence is overwhelming.

Good point with percentage Macca. I also subscribe to this percentage theory but please don't twist this into me saying I'm a lover of statistical date,I just agree with you on your percentage call. Yes I think Carlton could be on the verge of showing some genuine improvement on the back of a couple of recent wins. Important couple of weeks coming up for the Blues to see if they can achieve it.

MAttyb - One further point, many people subscribe to the theory that percentage is the best way to judge a teams performance - the blues percentage in 2015 was 64.8% so far this year it is 79.6% - that would be an improvement would it not?

NOt being mischievous Mattyb - just pointing out the obvious - you refuse to believe that stats becuase you "use your eyes" but when asked to watch a game (ie use your eyes) from last year and compare it to this year you refuse to do that - you refuse to acknowledge any source of evidence that would clearly refute your opinion,I would point to numerous article to demonstrate the blues improvement but you have stated in previous conversations you don't rate the media. So as I say you form an opinion based on nothing and then ignore all evidence to the contrary. And before you say it yes everyone is entitled to their opinion but not every opinion is equal. Finally on the stats you do realise for these things to be stats they had to have happened - the blues actually had to take more marks inside 50 this year than last to see an increase, they actually had to lay more tackles, you would have actually seen that happen with your eyes - however your perception may not have allowed you to.

Macca,I think your being slightly mischievous there. I have clearly stated I observe football using my eyes which means that saying I won't use my eyes is incorrect. You are correct though that I don't hold statistical data in the modern game that highly. I have the utmost respect for those that do,people are entitled to follow the game in any fashion they see fit.

So you don't believe the stats and you won't use you eyes - so basically you formed an opinion based on nothing and no amount of evidence contrary to you opinion will change your mind. On the stats the paint a very clear picture that the blues are keeping control of the ball moer (less clangers more possessions) keeping the ball in their forward half more (more inside 50's and marks inside 50) and working harder defensively (less points against more tackles) - that is a very good reflection of what you would see, if you let yourself. On last years Brisbane game - I choose that one becuase it sticks in my memory the most - but watch any of the Matlhouse games or all of them, you will see the improvement.

Macca,I don't believe stats in the modern game are a reflection of what I see. Again I respect people who enjoy stats,I don't,and I am entitled to hold that view in regard to statistical data. And I'm not watching one game from last year in isolation to change my view,Carlton have a chance on the back of some confidence building victories to show some improvement in the coming rounds,which I think will be good for the club moving forward,that's my view,I might be one of only a few that hold that view but that is completely irrelevant. I am seeing improvement in Melbourne and St.Kilda and I see numerous teams going backwards,again just my view.

Don't mind Michael, Macca, he loves to dig the boot in when the Blues are concerned. Nothing we will ever do is worthy of merit in Michael's eyes, so just don't feed the troll.

mattyb - the stats are a reflection of what you see and again if you just want to look, watch last years Brisbane game.

Thanks Macca but I'm not a huge stats person,but I do have respect for the accountant types who love to pour over them,I just use my eyes,I watch football to relax. Like I've said,I think Carlton have set themselves up nicely to improve. You think they have already improved and that's great and holds far more value than what I think because you support them while I support a different club. We all have different meters in which we judge and compare and again in my view Carlton are in the position to start showing some improvement. Once the improvement comes hopefully it will continue and with that the ceiling for improvement lifted to an adequate level.