“Lewis pole-axed”, “Hamilton feels ‘helpless’”, “Hamilton vows to ‘never give up’”.
Just three of the many headlines to bemoan Lewis Hamilton’s misfortune after power unit problems smote his hopes for pole in Russia. Woe is he.
Unlucky it certainly was, particularly after an identical problem struck down his Mercedes in China a fortnight earlier. Mercedes thought they had found and fixed the problem. Obviously, they hadn’t.
The ‘luckless Hamilton’ narrative was an attractive one – a triple world champion robbed of his ability to defend his title by the cruel hand of fate, his bubbly season-opening attitude giving way to his old monosyllabic self under the sheer weight of being unable to deliver natural justice.
Nico Rosberg cruising out front, perfectly managing his weekend, warranted only a mention when it involved questioning the value of his wins when the Rightful Victor was racing handicapped.
From there it was only a short jump for the lunatic fringes of the internet to accuse Mercedes of deliberately undermining their champion. The reason was left unannounced, other than ‘because obviously’.
The undertone is clear: Rosberg doesn’t deserve his lead, or at very least not all 43 points of it. But pause to consider the numbers and it’s obvious there’s more than the desertion of good fortune behind the yawning points chasm.
In Melbourne, there was no poor luck of which to speak. Hamilton topped every practice session and took pole in what was assumed to be a return to regular programming, but the Australian Grand Prix refused to stick to the script.
Hamilton executed a poor start under the new single-paddle clutch rules, designed to make getaways trickier. He was then subjected to some hard racing by Rosberg, who had leapt ahead of him – but even Hamilton acknowledged that it was fair, and it was, in any case, no more aggressive than some of the moves Hamilton had put past Rosberg in recent years.
The story was much the same in Bahrain, where the Briton again conceded pole position to his teammate – but this time he was punted by Valtteri Bottas at the first turn.
The Finn was in the wrong and later penalised for sending Hamilton tumbling to ninth on the first lap, and Hamilton spent the race recovering lost track position to finish 20 seconds behind an excellent Kimi Räikkönen and controlling Rosberg.
Hamilton can claim three points were lost after the unnecessary first-lap clash, but Rosberg was master of his destiny once in the lead.
The Chinese Grand Prix is the race for which the world champion can feel most aggrieved. An uncharacteristic power unit problem left him scrambling to recover a place in the top ten – never mind on the podium – on Sunday, but his efforts were frustrated by the first-turn melee.
A collision with Felipe Nasr tore off his front wing, damaging the floor. He fought back to seventh by the end of the race, three seconds behind a staunchly defensive Felipe Massa.
On a weekend Ferrari and Red Bull Racing were in fine form it is difficult to say a podium, much less a victory, would have been Hamilton’s by right, but third place would have been the minimum expectation – meaning a loss of nine points.
Which brings the championship to Russia, where Hamilton’s race and qualifying power unit travails have been well documented.
A solid start from P10 on the grid put him at fifth behind the safety car, and with the rudely competitive Mercedes at his fingertips, he was able to effortlessly recover second place shortly thereafter.
He was closing in on Rosberg in the middle of the race when his second power unit problem forced him to temper his pace – but Rosberg was also running a detuned car with his own power unit problems, so basing the result on a subsection of lap times is misleading. Second was a well-deserved result.
Hamilton lost points in Bahrain and China, and on these calculations the reigning world champion can lament the loss of 12 points from his title bid, which would leave the deficit at a still significant 31 points.
There is no evidence that it is by some cruel twist of destiny that Hamilton doesn’t find himself leading or more closely contesting the championship.
What instead is interesting is that he hasn’t won a race in six months – and if his reason for losing the concluding three races of 2015 was that he had already won the title, what’s behind these four straight defeats?
Instead, it might be time to recognise that Rosberg, like a number of drivers on this grid and those past, is capable of growth and development.
Meanwhile, Rosberg is driving more assuredly than he has in recent times, and with every win his confidence in the car grows.
So perhaps it’s time we consider the opening stanza of the season through the lens of Nico Rosberg being a worthy championship leader, rather than that of a forlorn Lewis Hamilton regretting the absence of Lady Luck.
We’ll see in Spain.
Follow @MichaelLamonato on Twitter during this weekend’s #SpanishGP.
anon
Guest
"You don’t seem to rate any driver. While Rosberg mightn’t have the defining killer instinct in a pack, there’s no way you can say he has a “scary lack of race craft”. Think back to as recently as the 2014 Russian Grand Prix, when he came from 20th to finish second. Yes, he had the fastest car, but ever passing move carries risk." Sorry, but Mercedes might have 2 seconds a lap on the field back then when the wick was turned up. He pitted at the end of the first lap (after locking up his tyres and flat spotting them while fighting with Hamilton), then was able to complete the race on essentially one set of tyres. With DRS and a massive advantage over the field it really takes little skill. This is simply not a strong era with a stand out driver like Schumacher at his peak. Hamilton at his peak couldn't put away Button, Alonso at his peak got matched by a rookie Hamilton, Raikkonen was built up then Massa beat him, Bottas can barely put away Massa, Vettel wins 4 championships gets destroyed by Ricciardo, Kvyat matches Ricciardo, now you have an 18 year old matching Ricciardo and driving as solidly as guys with 200 races of experience. Maybe if we go back to refueling and tyres that can be driven at the limit for virtually the entire race as in the Schumacher era we'll see the cream rise to the top again.
Michael Lamonato
Expert
You don't seem to rate any driver. While Rosberg mightn't have the defining killer instinct in a pack, there's no way you can say he has a "scary lack of race craft". Think back to as recently as the 2014 Russian Grand Prix, when he came from 20th to finish second. Yes, he had the fastest car, but ever passing move carries risk. I think Schumacher was underrated in his return. Nowhere near his peak powers, sure, but underrated nonetheless, because people judged his overall form based on obvious rustiness. Rosberg, likewise, deserved more credit for taking it to him. Moreover, if you have two experienced drivers in the same underwhelming car, differences are less likely to be obvious. I think Button and Alonso last year are a good example of this. I think you're neglect to consider that drivers improve and develop over time. We can't judge Rosberg on his Williams performances forever, just like we quickly got over calling Sebastian Vettel the Crash Kid or Grosjean a first lap nutcase.
Michael Lamonato
Expert
I think Nico is definitely better than we give him credit for. I also think the pressure of competing for the world championship is greater than people expect, so while Hamilton has had his whole career fighting in a top team and was able to race for wins from his debut, Rosberg is only now learning how to deal with being the fastest man on the track. But there's only one way to find out!
anon
Guest
Rosberg is the third best German driver on the grid. He possesses a scary lack of race craft, he's never actually put a move on Hamilton while trailing him, when not out front in first or second place he can have trouble passing for position despite his enormous 1-2 second gap on his rivals in 2014 and 2015 (Hamilton slices through the field), and time and again he's made really bad rookie mistakes when Hamilton applies even the slightest pressure. My theory is that Hamilton just isn't that good. He's a great driver, one of the top drivers on the grid for sure, but not an all-time great. He's had great cars since he stepped into F1. He suffers the slightest bit of misfortune and he becomes sour and totally unsporting. Rosberg in his prime went 10-10 in qualifying in 2012 against a nearly 43-year-old Schumacher 10 years past his prime and on his way out of the sport. In races where both drivers finished Schumacher won 7-3 off the top of my head. That's not something to hang your hat on. Yet Rosberg accounted for Hamilton quite easily 11-8 in qualifying in 2014. This is after the British media for years scoffing at Vettel's poles saying Hamilton is the best driver over one lap. Rosberg put that to rest. Button, a driver who has been able to keep drives in F1 so long purely because he's a respectable Brit, outscored Hamilton 2010-12 when they were together at McLaren. This was after everyone in the media said it was a bad idea for Button to go to McLaren after winning the championship in 2009. Everyone thought he'd get blown away. Granted, Hamilton had more genuine pace, but Hamilton was and still is inconsistent. I don't rate Button and never have. All he had to do was beat an old Barrichello in 2009 to win a championship and he made a meal of that despite getting a big head start over his teammate. What I'm saying is Button and Rosberg are not top tier drivers, yet Hamilton has at times struggled against them. If Hamilton had real competition right now from drivers and teams other than his teammate who is the third best German driver on the grid, he simply wouldn't be up to it in his mental state. If Rosberg wins this year, the narrative pushed by the British media will be Hamilton had to win two of his championships against a world champion driver. They'll say Vettel only had to beat Webber (who easily beat a young Rosberg), Schumacher's teammates moved over for him and weren't allowed to compete, while Hamilton had to fight a WORLD CHAMPION. What a joke. Anyone who has followed F1 knows the score regarding Schumacher, but just wait. It will be repeated by the British media like it's fact. I'll be surprised if Hamilton doesn't come back and win this. In fact it will be a real stain on his career if he can't. Schumacher had a pretty horrific start to 2003 in a car that was equal in performance to the Williams and McLaren. Hamilton has merely ONE driver as competition, he's faster than him and they're in the exact same machinery. He will have an advantage over him at EVERY track, unlike if you're competing for the championship against a driver in another team (other team might have advantage at aero circuits or rear limited circuits, etc) He should beat him 16-3 in qualifying or something similar.
Mark Young
Roar Guru
I meant of course, very very good, just not GREAT!
Mark Young
Roar Guru
Hi Rodney, how good is the music at the start of Superlicense Podcast!
Mark Young
Roar Guru
Hi Michael, I have been enjoying listening to your podcasts recently! I think we have all programmed ourselves to treat Lewis as some sort of Racing Genius and Nico as a Number 2. Lewis Hamilton was outscored by Jenson Button while they raced together at McLaren. Nico Rosberg set fastest lap in his first ever race and was as fast as Schumi during the comeback Maybe, just maybe, Lewis is very very good, just not good and Nico is a whole lot better then what we give him credit for. I'm starting to get very excited about this season, because luck will turn and the gap will narrow. How I hope that we enter the final 3 races of the year with less then a race separating the two of them!
steve
Guest
That may be true, but Rosberg currently has the wood on Hamilton, what is it, 7 or 8 wins in a row going back to last season? Hamilton may have has some bad luck, but Rosberg is leading him for very good reason. He's clearly driving very well.
Rodney Gordon
Expert
His winning margins from the last couple of years have been substantial, albeit helped by double-points and a Rosberg retirement in Abu Dhabi.
Michael Lamonato
Expert
"Effectively the entire 2009 season is left" nails it — Hamilton only has to outscore Rosberg by three points a round to make up the difference.
Naveen Razik
Roar Pro
It was luckless Webber who transferred it to Luckless Alonso who looks like he's transferred it to luckless Hamilton. Although it might be Luckless Kyvat from now on. I'm not too fussed. 17 races left in the season. Effectively the entire 2009 F1 season is left. The status quo will change with the upgrades in spain.