Welcome to another week of The Roar’s AFL expert tips! Round 9 is another big week of footy and it doesn’t get any bigger than Hawthorn and Sydney at the MCG on Friday night.
In what looks like the match of the round these two sides, who have met in the grand final twice in the last four years, will go head to head with both looking to push their case as premiership contenders in 2016.
The Swans are coming off a heartbreaker one-point loss to the Richmond Tigers last week while the Hawks despite boasting a solid 6-2 record haven’t been in great form and have the lowest percentage in the top eight.
Whichever of the two wins here will gain an important scalp and raise their position in the view of the competition, but the loser will continue to have questions asked of them – so there’s a lot on the line.
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It’s a game that could go either way but my tip is that the Swans will take the win. Last week would’ve provided a bit of a reality check for them and I suspect they will bounce back strong.
The other game this week to feature two top eight teams is that between GWS and the Western Bulldogs, and I’m tipping the Giants to get the win here.
The Dogs are still missing some key players in the backline, add in a few key suspensions and the fact the Dogs are on the road and I think the Giants are deserving favourites.
Fremantle and Richmond looked just a few weeks ago like a good chance for the Dockers to get their first win but after the Tigers’ thrilling victory last week, it feels like they’re probably the better chance here. One of these teams wants to win, and one doesn’t – so that should make this pretty easy to pick.
Port Adelaide and West Coast provides an interesting contest, with both teams failing to deliver on expectations so far this season and both yet to beat a team inside the top eight. The Eagles haven’t won a game away from home so far this season but I will tip them to break that hoodoo here… without a great deal of confidence.
North Melbourne and Carlton have the greatest cumulative winning streaks of any match-up this week, with the Roos having eight on the trot and the Blues four. Make no mistake, this is a serious danger game for undefeated North, but I expect the mounting injuries to Carlton’s ruck department will give Todd Goldstein and North Melbourne a decisive advantage.
The other four games in the round look relatively straight forward. Collingwood will come up against Geelong with a lot of confidence but should be outclassed, Melbourne should bounce back from their loss to the Bulldogs for a win over Brisbane, and so should the Saints when they host Essendon.
The no-hopers of the round are Gold Coast who look likely to be missing Gary Ablett when they host Adelaide. The Crows will be keen to get a win on the board after two disappointing losses in a row, while the Suns have lost their last three games by a combined 284 points. The Crows are, without a doubt, my Lock of the Week.
Michael di Fabrizio
The fact that there are so many apparent certainties this week doesn’t make the tough ones any easier, and that starts with the Friday night clash between Hawthorn and Sydney.
The Swans stumbled in their first MCG appearance of the season last week and you’d expect them to have some response in them.
The Hawks haven’t been doing too much wrong this year, given their two losses have come to sides that are genuinely firing at the moment (Geelong and GWS). That’s a description you wouldn’t bestow on the Swans at this very point in time.
One area where the Tigers got on top last week was in the tackles, laying 19 more. With Hawthorn ranking as the competition’s top tacklers, the Swans can expect similar frustrations when they’ve got the ball this week.
While I think Buddy Franklin’s form can’t be overlooked, we saw last week that his work up forward alone won’t get a team over the line. It’s the Hawks for me.
In the other toss-ups, I’ve gone with Fremantle to break the drought against Richmond. Though winless to date, the Dockers aren’t the competition’s weakest team. They’re due.
GWS at home will prove too tough an ask for the Western Bulldogs.
BJ Conkey
Watching Jordan Lewis talk about his good mate ‘Roughy’ and his cancer setback was gut-wrenching this week. Lewis reiterated how, as tough as it was to focus on footy, it’s what Jarryd would want. The emotion will spill onto the MCG and you’d expect the Hawks to lift for their good mate. The Swans let the game slip against Richmond and that will still be haunting them when they take to the field on Friday.
Carlton’s streak has been fun to watch, but it surely must come to an end against North Melbourne. The Blues’ defence has held up surprisingly well this year, but so has the Kangaroos. It’s been so good in fact that the Kangas have only needed an average of 72 points per game for the last three to win.
While the Dockers are struggling to kick points, the Tigers looked like they turned the corner against the Swans with 31 scoring shots. If the likes of Brett Deledio, Dustin Martin and Ben Griffiths can play as well as they did against Sydney, they’ll inflict yet another loss to Fremantle.
| Round 8 | BJ Conkey | Michael | Josh | The Crowd |
| HAW v SYD | HAW | HAW | SYD | HAW |
| COL v GEE | GEE | GEE | GEE | GEE |
| GCS v ADL | ADL | ADL | ADL | ADL |
| PA v WCE | WCE | WCE | WCE | WCE |
| NTM v CAR | NTM | NTM | NTM | NTM |
| FRE v RIC | RIC | FRE | RIC | RIC |
| MEL v BL | MEL | MEL | MEL | MEL |
| GWS v WB | WB | GWS | GWS | GWS |
| STK v ESS | STK | STK | STK | STK |
| Last round | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| Total | 51 | 50 | 49 | 49 |
big four sticks
Guest
Our trophy cabinet is bigger than yours.
true blue
Guest
I have teams I hate and teams I like but I just Comment on Carlton. Unfortunately Carlton have supporters like the Richmond ones. I was angered by Snapper's rant on Finey's final siren. As a life long Blues fan I deplore the arrogance that has be promoted by the ruling class robber barons who have ruled the roost at Carlton. Apart from Pratt, very few have a connection with the club or the district it represents. Many jumped on board because Carlton symbolised power and status. This arrogance is echoed by grass roots supporters like Snapper. He made untrue allegations about Waite. He claimed Waite left Carlton to play in a premiership and was a traitor because his dad Vin was a Carlton man. Waite wanted to stay and he wanted a two year contract extension. Carlton refused and Waite walked. The Carlton hierarchy made a mistake not Waite. He also attacked Henderson and claimed he was doing stuff all at Geelong. Henderson had had enough of the disunity and didn't want to be on a rudderless ship. I like where Carlton are now and we don't need arrogant supporters like Snapper rubbing 16 flags from long ago in everyone's faces. Carlton has finally learnt humility, humbleness, and patience. I tip North but at least we will give it our all.
hal
Guest
I am undecided on Footscray v GWs. My heart says Dogs but my head says GWS. I think most Victorians will be barracking for the Dogs. Those suspensions will hurt. It could be a very close game.
hal
Guest
...and this is why I hate Richmond because they are always one win away from the premiership. Tune into SEN and you will hear the yellow and black arrogance spewed out on the talk back cheared on by Mr Magoo himself. Geelong are in decline, according to Magoo, but a team that has done stuff all my entire life time is always on the brink of something great. Just wait to when they start losing again, their army will be demanding Hardwick's head. I heard a caller say the same thing on Finey's final siren in regards to Richmond putting everyone on notice. Is this their new arrogant slogan. That is the thing with these big four clubs, they always come up with some slogan that epitomizes their hubris. Richmond's must be: you are on notice. Maybe I will start believing when they beat Geelong. That being said I still tip Richmond to beat Freo, and it is highly possible that they could sneak into the eight come season's end. As I think they are a more credible team than the front runners from Alberton.
Thommo
Guest
Don't write of the Bullies yet. If their midfield get on top as I believe they will, the ball will stay in the Doggies forward line long enough for a winning score. If the dogs get beat in the midfield it won't be pretty
big four sticks
Guest
The only game that counts is Richmond v Fremantle. All other AFL clubs will be put on notice after this game as Richmond will start their charge into the finals. It is also interesting that the two teams us Richmond fans hate most are playing one another: Carlton and North. Let's hope they knock each other out. We don't think much of Essendoom either, so I tip the Saints. All other teams can get stuffed because Richmond are the greatest team of all, no apologies to the Cats.
hal
Guest
Hawthorn to get over the line against Sydney on the rebound. Geelong to knock over Collingwood. 88 points. Adelaide to blow away the witches hats. 100 points. Richmond to get two in a row against Freo. 12 points. Melbourne tip over Brisbane. 75 points. No excuses for St Kilda against Essendon. 20 points. North to have too much talent against an honest Carlton. 35 points. West Coast are better class of down hill skiers than Port and will ski away to the finish line. 14 points.