The much-anticipated return of Eagle Farm racecourse is finally upon us, headlined by the Queensland Oaks for three-year-old fillies. Unfortunately, the weather gods haven’t smiled on south-east Queensland, after an extremely long period of dry and idyllic weather.
The irony is, although it’s very annoying for racing officials, it perhaps highlights the fact that the track should have been ready some time ago, and poor weather can hardly be blamed for the length of the hiatus.
A large amount of rain has been forecast for Saturday in particular, but also Friday, and some had already fallen on Thursday. It might place the entire meeting in jeopardy, but if the meeting does go ahead the likelihood is racing well be on a heavy track.
In general when a new track has been laid it tends to favour on pace runners closer to the rail, and a wet surface is most likely going to make life even more difficult for horses to come from rearward and wide to win.
Making assumptions can be fraught with danger but that is what we have experienced in the past with the likes of Randwick and Flemington. It should pay dividends to watch the earlier races and study where the winners are coming from, keeping in mind that the tempo can also be influential.
The beauty of races at Eagle Farm at this time of year is that races are so often truly run, so if horses aren’t running on out wide in the straight off a genuine speed, you can safely assume that there is a track bias against them.
Looking for wet trackers isn’t exactly rocket science, though it’s generally pertinent to remember that those carrying the lightest weights are more suited when a track gets very wet. Conceding weight on wet tracks to lighter weighted horses can be more of a task than on drier surfaces.
I have perused the slow and heavy track form and breeding credentials of the vast majority of runners, and have tried to find some at value that could make an impact.
Race 1
The mother (dam) of Redouble won a race on debut in New Zealand on a heavy track by 7.5 lengths, and she did win up to 1600 metres in her career. Redouble has already won on a Slow 6 surface and appears classy enough to trouble the two favourites. $7.50 looks a decent price.
Race 2
Felines has already got very good form on wet tracks, and has six wins from nine at this distance. Her mother also won on a heavy track at Doomben during her career. She should run very well at a price of around $5.
Race 3
Maurus looks a good bet given his 2/2 record on heavy tracks coming off a career-best performance in the Doomben Cup. No fancy price but he should be very hard to beat.
Race 4
Sold For Song is 2/2 on wet tracks and I’m totally forgiving her last run where she didn’t have a lot of luck. The run prior when second to Takedown was quite simply breathtaking, and there was talk of a Stradbroke run before that race.
Kimberly Star has the best heavy track stats of any horse in the race so has to be given massive respect. Both these horses are short enough in the betting market at this stage and a bit hard to separate.
Race 5
Shades Of Bella comes off a win in Victoria. She ran third prior to that behind Voodoo Lad and Marwood on a heavy track and both those horses are very good on wet surfaces. $11 is nice enough price for her.
Frill Seeking is by a very good wet track sire in Sebring. Her mother Vietnam was pretty smart, and did win on a Heavy 10 track here over 1400 metres in her career. She is yet to strike a wet track but could be the surprise packet at better than $20.
Race 6 (QTC Cup)
One at value odds that almost certainly prefers wet ground is Sure And Fast. He can peak here third-up, and while he doesn’t have the class of a few of these that might not matter on a very wet surface.
Race 7 (Queensland Oaks)
A difficult race to assess with most of these very young fillies yet to run at 2400 metres on a very wet track. Two that have are Ambience and Chambaud, but neither managed to win the ATC Oaks, although running quite well.
I’m looking at Falkenberg running a bold race here given she is a full sister to Sebring, who won a Golden Slipper and a Sire Produce both on heavy tracks. She has had no luck lately and if she can run the distance she is a very good hope of winning.
Sebring Sally (by Sebring) ran a very good second, flying home late in the Doomben Roses after being three wide throughout and has won on a heavy track. $16 seems to be overly generous odds for her in this.
Race 8
Federal looks the one to beat with a heavy track win at 1400 metres and some good form around the Doomben 10000 winner Music Magnate. Electric Power should go well back on a wet track, and is by a super wet track sire in Mossman. He is twice the price of Federal, and although I’m a little concerned by the 1500 metres, he does have a provincial win at the distance, and his dam did place at 1800 metres.
Hopefully the rain doesn’t come but if it does let’s hope the damage to the new surface at this famous old racecourse is negligible. We have a lot to look forward to in the next couple of weeks including the Stradbroke Handicap, Queensland Derby and Brisbane Cup.
michael steel
Guest
Considering that heavy rain has been predicted all week, it seems odd that the QTC didn't take the option to switch to Doomben which they needed to do by Thursday. This amount of rain would not cause the cancellation of the Doomben meeting but who knows with a wet track. So if it does go ahead I like 2 roughies in the Oaks. Ashlee Marie D Gauci at 40/1 Zafiki ( no rider yet) at 40/1 and of the favourites Dawnie Perfect $8.50 ridden by K McEvoy barrier 22 As Christian Reith fan club president I've already backed Tap This at $26.00 fixed but it will probably blow out. Brisburgh Phil likes his race 1 ride in Redouble.
Tim
Guest
Also good to check if they have won on the track in the wet, some horse might handle, say a heavy rosehill but not a heavy at randwick.
BrisburghPhil
Roar Guru
Very true Nathan. Even a horse beaten 5-6 lengths on a Heavy track recently can win on similar going next start. Not sure if there are too many falling into that category tomorrow but once again value is key if you can find a few like that. I've left a few out that look pretty obvious tbh. Furnaces, Kaepernick, Target In Sight etc.
Nathan Absalom
Roar Guru
Again, nice preview and I'd like to add a my two cents to doing form on wet tracks. As you've mentioned, breeding is important but the other thing is to take the time to properly review wet track form. I often find that horses that have won a maiden and class one by half a length or less at short odds in the heavy come up unders because the form says unbeaten on heavy. Conversely, there can be massive value in horses that have been beaten by under a length in the heavy in higher class races, because on the surface their wet form doesn't read too well. Just because has 2 wins from 2 starts in the heavy does not necessarily make it a wet tracker, nor does 2 starts for 2 unplaced make a duffer. Heavy tracks can really reward the diligent analysts, in my view.
Don
Roar Rookie
Yeah you are probably right with my get in early on fixed strategy Phil. Deductions will kill me. I'm thinking if it goes ahead we may see races where we'd pencilled a horse at longish odds but by race day risk v reward has been taken away by scratchings. For us it usually then becomes a "trifecta / first 4 meet" rather than EW betting.
BrisburghPhil
Roar Guru
Yes Don I do think there is a higher likelihood of abandonement because it's a new track, but weather the authorities will state that I'm not too sure. If I were in charge I'd be very reluctant to go ahead, but then again one or two of these races need to be run. Getting in early on Fixed Odds? Personally I wouldn't do that because you will be up for hefty deductions. And I've been burnt so many times before ending up getting far inferior odds Fixed, to what I would have got Best Price on the day. Anticipating what horses get through the ground 2-3 days out can find some big overs, but if there are too many scratchings then even that strategy becomes redundant.
BrisburghPhil
Roar Guru
Not sure about Sunday Razz. Really have no idea what the plan is if they don't race tomorrow.QTC Cup is the main worry being a ballot free race for the Stradbroke. Realistically though probably only Kaepernick can win the Stradbroke out of that race and he might not need to start in the race to get a run. Re Target In Sight- A slight doubt above 1300m on a wet track I reckon, though he is one of the better chances and does actually get through the ground. I was on A Lotta Love last start @ $26+. Thought she had it at the 200m mark. This is obviously a lot easier.
Don
Roar Rookie
Do you think there is a higher likelihood of abandoning the meet because of the new surface should we get enough rain where normally it would run and be a Heavy 10? A big race day to put a new surface to the test and risk both safety and track reputation. One thing for sure. We will see plenty of scratchings so punters should get in soon on fixed odds today if they're picking some wet trackers at long odds. They won't be those odds later tonight / tomorrow.
Razzar
Guest
Yes Phil this meeting could well be in jeopardy. If say 40 odd mill of rain arrives by say 8 or 9am Saturday, the track will be a total bog, up to a 100 mill is actually predicted. Is a Sunday switch an option? I did like the QTC Cup. Not that sure now I'd rated Target in sight a 4/1 chance. Looks to have some class. But it looks a competitive field. Kaepernick is 2nd up with a good record. 13/2 chance Spill the beans should race handy , 9/1 chance Sure and Fast is honest enough to be a chance 9/1. Sandown race 6 A Lotta Love is very honest, will race handy, reads as winner 5/2 chance. Danestroem has a measure of quality . 10/1 chance. Liten Princessa is and up n comer, that should get nice cover in a race with good speed 10/1 chance. Nozomi in race 5 is ready for the mile should get nice run, fit now 7/2 chance. Good luck punters, and let's pray for No Rain.