Season 2016 is shaping to be as open as a 7-11 on Christmas trading hours. The current occupants of the top eight look set to be the same who will contend finals football come the spring and most remarkably all eight look to be genuine contenders for a grand final appearance.
There is no clear breakaway group of three or four clearly better sides. Usually, there’s the up and coming side who will be just happy to play in September, or the team on the decline only a year or two away from a potential rebuild.
But for the current top eight, everything is to play for, there is no remotely obvious premiership favourite, and we the fans are all the better for it.
Let’s go through this sensational situation by outlining why each of the eight clubs can win the flag this year, but also crucially why they might fall short.
Why they can
They have turned 10-1 at the halfway mark and winning form is good form. This is a side largely unchanged from the team who last year snuck into the finals with only three more wins than the side has already this year.
Their backline looks robust and awfully cohesive and the midfield is blue-collar and made for September. On any dry track, and September often is, the aerial threat of Jarrad Waite, Drew Petrie and Ben Brown could not just be a match-winner but a flag-winner.
Why they can’t
They have only defeated the Bulldogs and Crows of the current top eight, so their form is based on beating the teams they should, not so much the teams they’ll need to come September. The Roos are a great contested side and are fluent in transition but when the going gets tough in a final and it opens right up you fancy some of the other contenders to hurt them.
Why they can
The current favourite with the bookies, the Bloods have defeated three current top eight sides in GWS, Hawthorn and most recently North Melbourne, only slipping up to Adelaide marginally interstate.
Buddy Franklin looks to be very close to career best form and their midfield is arguably no worse than the premiership side of 2012. Further, the coach has done a wonderful job injecting youth while registering only two losses to the halfway mark, another sign of a very driven and successful unit.
Why they can’t
Their backline looks vulnerable. Richmond showed, perhaps on an off night, that you can score against the Swans if you get it down there quick, and the fellow finalists have the cattle and class in the midfield to potentially exploit that.
Franklin has looked unstoppable so far kicking 41 goals but should a side be able to stop his scoreboard influence you’re already, on average, four goals closer to Sydney than you otherwise would have been. Their small forwards are very young, it’s a tough ask to contribute to a winning finals score for such inexperience.
Why they can
When they have played their best this year it’s looked better than anyone else. Comprehensive winners over Hawthorn, they have defeated the most current top eight sides to this point of the season, also toppling GWS, West Coast and Adelaide. Unlike Sydney, whose backline looks ageing and in need of impending rejuvenation, the Cats have avoided that issue with the form of Harry Taylor and Corey Enright looking stellar and Lachie Henderson and Tom Ruggles looking fine new additions.
The forward line has all the personnel a coaching group could ever ask for and did we mention Patrick Dangerfield yet? The combination of Dangerfield and Joel Selwood in the guts, beautifully supported by the improving Mitch Duncan, Cameron Guthrie and Josh Caddy is capable of winning multiple finals. Plus Zac Smith was a genuine steal in the off-season.
Why they can’t
Why did they lose to Collingwood and Geelong? Were they found out? Are there kinks in the armour? Will the gelling of this new side take time and endure great highs and sometimes unfortunate lows?
Are they too reliant on Dangerfield? Can you exploit Andrew Mackie and Jimmy Bartel as defenders if you move the ball quickly? Are they too injury prone to show their full potential in 2016?
The short answer is that you could answer maybe to all of these questions, and it’s because of those question marks that you can’t be 100 per cent sure about their finish.
Why they can
This is Hawthorn. They won the last three premierships and played in the last four grand finals. It would have been the last five grand finals had Luke Ball not snapped a beauty from the pocket to sneak the Pies into the 2011 big dance.
Hawthorn just know what to do when the grass gets greener, the days get longer and the sunshine comes back after a winter hibernation. They have too many premiership players on that list and other than Sydney and Geelong no-one else can come close to that sort of pedigree.
Why they can’t
It’s got to end soon and there are enough signs to suggest it’s imminent. James Sicily is young but can he be as influential without David Hale and now Jarryd Roughead? Probably not.
The older blokes are still playing well but these Hawks have almost played an extra season of football with finals appearances the last four years. It’s a much bigger output compared to the Giants or Dogs, and that extra work in the legs for such experienced players will take its toll at some point.
Their form thus far hasn’t been great, in arguably three or four games they should have or could have very easily lost.
Why they can
They look the best on paper. Paper doesn’t win anything but the balance and make-up of this side is the one you’d want to be on. They boast a backline with a mix of burgeoning talent and quality experience particularly Heath Shaw and Phil Davis, who should be in the All-Australian mix.
The forward line boasts a Coleman medal runner-up, one of the best up and coming contested marks in the country and a Norm Smith medallist who is as hungry as anything. But it’s their midfield, led by Shane Mumford, who’s as dominant as any big man, full of hard-running elite talent which is starting to fulfil its lofty potential.
Why they can’t
This club hasn’t even played a final yet let alone won any silverware. In the clutch moments of September, there are two things you don’t to be caught out with: inexperience and inconsistency. And the Giants are proponents of both. Until they can prove otherwise they are a shaky proposition at best.
Why they can
The loss of Dangerfield hasn’t been felt in the slightest. The continual emergence of Rory Sloane as a proper jet of the competition and Matt Crouch stepping up massively means the Crows have remained highly competitive.
The forward line could lay claim to being the best in the competition, Josh Jenkins is a far cry from the undervalued prospect Essendon let go, the captain is just starting to find some ominous form and the small brigade led by Eddie Betts is unstoppable. Well coached by first-year head honcho Don Pyke, they will win many at Adelaide Oval and they travel more than OK too.
Why they can’t
They need a lot to go right. Their first choice backline is fantastic with Daniel Talia, Rory Laird, Kyle Hartigan, Brodie Smith, but the depth to replace any of them exposes an Achilles heel. And sure, Rory Sloane, Brad Crouch, Scott Thompson and Rory Atkins have all found plenty of the ball this year, but they don’t run as far in the midfield as some of the other contenders. Contributions on the big stage need to be wide and varied, not restricted to a handful of players.
Why they can
A more exciting football side you will not see this year. All the ingredients suggest they shouldn’t mix – both their premier half-backs in Jason Johannisen and Robert Murphy, a still-green Tom Boyd, a sometimes makeshift forward line and a lot of no-names through the guts – yet it works so well.
Lachie Hunter is a Brownlow smokey and a soon-to-be household name, they possess the deepest engine room in the competition by a long way and if Luke Beveridge isn’t the best coach in the land now then he will be soon. He is extracting supreme performances out of his chargers.
Why they can’t
They’ve got a massive task. Wins over Adelaide and West Coast have been super and a narrow loss to Hawthorn aside, they have trounced a lot of non-finalists and their draw is soft on the way home. That will help secure a great finish but what this team needs is to be tested, it needs to prove that the key injuries and unorthodox line-up won’t find them unstuck come September when a fired up Hawthorn, Sydney or even Geelong awaits.
Why they can
If Hawthorn didn’t win it last year the Eagles were riding shotgun, and that’s not a bad place to start. The forward line is imposing, a delightful mix of talls, mediums and smalls, and the midfield is as deep as the Bulldogs’, feeding the ball down so often they are ominous again in 2016.
Last year they did it off the back of some massive injuries and so far their health is miles better, so their potential for greatness is only more attainable. They have significant finals experience under their belt too and should they sneak in then they are unbackable to go deep.
Why they can’t
The monkey on their back is the ability to win east of the Nullarbor. This year already they have been trounced by Sydney, Hawthorn, Geelong and the Bulldogs on the road, a poor record to say the least.
Moreover, they haven’t defeated anyone else of note yet. So halfway through the season, they have the poorest form against fellow top eight sides by a long way. They only play top eight sides again on the road twice more this season, the Giants in Sydney and the Crows in Adelaide. so any hope to redeem themselves in Melbourne won’t happen, and you feel that could be crucial.
mattyb
Guest
You keep putting this up everywhere lol. Don't worry about including 2014 as we would rarely win anywhere and we had a different coach. Would you agree though if WB can manage to beat PA it will confirm them as premiership favorites?
me too
Guest
No, you simply believed another poster - who was wrong. Port 100 bulldogs 62 at AO last year. 1 interstate win last year as the away team. 0 this year. 1 in 2014. 3 of last 11 if we include a home interstate win against the mighty gold coast.
andyl12
Guest
Gameofmarks, you have your sums wrong. If they lose to GWS and Adelaide they only have 3 other away wins to come! Personally I think they'll lose to one of either Carlton or Collingwood. That leaves them having to win all of their home games just to reach 15 wins. Enough said.
Don Freo
Guest
They were highly competitive on Sunday even though they played spasmodically. A fit NicNat and McGovern will add to that competitive edge. They are ahead of Adelaide and GWS and well ahead of Hawthorn.
gameofmarks
Roar Guru
The Eagles play the Lions, Carlton, Collingwood, GWS and Adelaide away. On current form I would say they should win 4 of those and go down to GWS and Adelaide. They have 6 home games remaining against Adelaide, Essendon, North Melbourne, Melbourne, Freo and the Hawks. On current form I would say there are 3 definite wins in those, which puts them on 14 wins for the year. If they can win 2 games of the Adelaide, North Melbourne and Hawks games that puts them on 16 wins for the year and a definite Top 4 finish and probably a Top 2 finish. If they make the Top 4 or 2 they still don't deserve to win or for that matter play off in the GF. They are pretenders IMO, and I'm an Eagles fan. Too many front runners in their side that look good with a wet sail and the wind at their back.
Pumping Dougie
Guest
LOL. You posted these exact words on another article today and were quickly exposed by others as outlandishly, factually wrong.
me too
Guest
dogs are flat track bullies. awesome at home, but interstate they are meek puppies. won just two of their last eleven. been absolutely blessed with 8 games already at etihad. wont finish top two, so won't make the final.
Don Freo
Guest
Counting isn't really a forte. That loss on the weekend was a projected win in my predictor. The big top 2 question will be the game against the stormtrooping Purple People going for 12 straight and a finals berth. It might decide WC's top 2 chance.
Perry Bridge
Guest
#Don Freo - Do you realise we are 11 rounds in. 11 games to go. West Coast are on 7 wins currently. It'll be pretty hard to make that 19!!! To get 16 wins and a likely lock for the top 4 then need to win 9 of 11. Most dangerous away games:GWS, Adelaide Most dangerous home games:Adelaide, North, Hawthorn If they win the other 6 matches (away against Carlton might be a danger game and who knows what Collingwood will bring to the table by round 19 at the MCG) - then they may still need 3 of the above 'dangerous' games. It's doable but they can't afford to slip up - especially if they are pushing for top 2 and a home final first week.
andyl12
Guest
West Coast Eagles will lose at least 2 of their remaining away games, more likely 3. That puts them on seven losses and needing to win all their remaining home games (which include matches against Hawthorn, Adelaide and North) to have just a slight hope of making the top 4. Not surprisingly, I'm putting them in the 5-8 bracket and continuing the trend of Shellshocked Grand Final Losers not reaching the following year's prelim.
Perry Bridge
Guest
What I'm curious about as a North fan is Geelong (their home game at Etihad) and Hawthorn (North home game at Etihad) in these next 2 weeks. North have gained the upper hand on Geelong over the last 2 years. Dangerfield is good for them but they gave up a bit to get him and no Hawkins will hurt. Then North comes to Hawthorn at Etihad. Last year Hawthorn pulled away for a 10 goal win. In 2014 North won by 20 pts and in 2013 Hawthorn got North by 3 pts at the MCG and 2 goals late in the season at Etihad. The Roughead factor is a big one - he's always been hard for North to contain/match up on. At present - with Hodge and Roughead missing North will see this game as very much winnable if not expected. However - Gunston and Breust have caused North headaches in the past too. Hawthorn have been okay without being great but they talk about getting through to the bye and then launching from there. Both North and Hawks have 3 games to go before the bye.
Brian
Guest
Hawks have 2 expect to lose games (Sydney away, WCE away) 3 close games (NM twice, Port away) 6 should win games (Collingwood, Carlton, Essendon, GC home, Richmond, Melbourne). I would have use favorite in the 3 close games, so if we can get 9 from here even with the poor % we can get top 4. That's a big if but we come top 4 I'd say we will be favorites going in. Given the blanket you could throw over the top 8 it will probably come down to some luck and experience. That is why I still have the experienced four of Hawthorn, Sydney, Geelong & WCE ahead of NM, WB, GWS & Adelaide.
Don Freo
Guest
They are only "easy" draws after they have won the tough early draws.
Don Freo
Guest
It's a strange take on WC. They have played 6 or 7 of last year's top 8. They have only 2 current top 8 sides away to come. You say that's a bad thing. I say it is a formula for top 4...probably top 2. With 6 easily winnable away games to come, that gives them 7 away wins plus all their home wins. Playing the strong teams early, win or lose, gives them great momentum for the second half of the year. Can't see them missing top 2 with 17, 18 or 19 wins.
Dean
Guest
Geelong and North have easy draws and Port's draw and recent form is favourable enough that they could tip somebody out of the 8. Richmond are also a danger if they can string their best games together which they have a tendency to do at the end of the season. Eagles and GWS have an easy enough draw so they'll stay in. Dogs and Crows are young sides, likely to tire and Hawthorn as well have started the season tired and will be plugging away to get to September.
Perry Bridge
Guest
The holy grail at present is to get to 16 wins to lock in a top 4 spot. North need 6 of 11. They have a relatively tough draw - however - that said, we'll know much move of their capacity to handle it over the next 2 weeks. Geelong and Hawthorn in successive weeks at Etihad. Win these 2 and the top 4 is wide open for North - lose them and a couple of much less friendlier games need to be won. On present form North really should win both these games. The irony of the "why they can't" assertion re finals is that North have won 4 finals in the last 2 years - 3 at the MCG and 1 at ANZ Stadium. The Giants on 7 wins in 6th have a bit of a dream run - once they get past Sydney this week. Their run home includes Essendon, hosting Carlton and Collingwood, a visit to Brisbane and to Gold Coast. Hosting Richmond and Freo. There could be 7 wins in that lot without too much trouble. The task of winning 9 of the last 11 to ensure top 4 will hinge on winning at least 2 (depending if any 'upset' losses) of the following (inc Syd this week): v Port (Away-Rnd18; v WCE (Home-R21) and a R23 date with North at Etihad. Can either West Coast or Adelaide win 9 of the next 11? West Coast travel concerns see them need to win the majority of these interstate trips: Brisbane; Carlton; Collingwood; GWS and Adelaide. So - yes, I could see them pick up 3 of those 5. The Eagles also take on Dockers, and then home games against: Adelaide; Essendon; North; Melbourne and Hawthorn. Can the Eagles win all 6 of these Subi matches? The Doggies are reasonably well positioned to have a crack at 8 of 11 to make 16 wins and top 4. A team like Geelong has to work to not let slip ups like their losses to Coll and Carl thwart them. Hawthorn haven't been entirely convincing and they come up against North twice, West Coast in Perth, Port in Adelaide and Sydney in Sydney. Can the Hawks do 8 from 11 to secure a top 4??
Jim
Guest
I certainly agree the Dogs appear to have the best defensive structure in the competition, but I'm not convinced they have the deepest midfield group out there - and that is ultimately where the battles will be won in September.
Jim
Guest
"Their backline looks vulnerable. Richmond showed, perhaps on an off night, that you can score against the Swans if you get it down there quick, and the fellow finalists have the cattle and class in the midfield to potentially exploit that." Interesting comment about Richmond beating Sydney. I was at the game, and it really wasn't that the Tigers were getting the ball in there quick, they spent plenty of time moving the ball sideways across midfield. Its just that they dominated midfield possession, and were delivering accurately into the forward line when they did go forward. That is where the Swans weakness is - the Swans regularly give up a lot of inside 50s, but like some of the other perennial contenders, are very good at defending whent he ball is bombed in and can get numbers to the fall of the ball. Where the weakness is is where teams can expose their defenders 1 on 1. Certainly the top 8 is not far off being a closed shop for this season, but there is a lot of potential for, as you identify, any of those 8 teams to go awfully close to winning the flag. Hawks are still clear favourites to me , but are not as far in front of the pack this year in my book.
Melbourne Lions FC
Guest
Will be the dogs for mine; bat the deepest in midfield (Bont, Hunter, Macrae, Libba, Wallis, Dalhouse, Stevens etc..) and they have the best defensive structures in the competition. When Johannisen comes back into that team, they will have the line breaker they have been missing since he and murphy went out which will help with their quicker ball movement out of defence. Only a matter of time before their fwd line gets on a roll as well.
I hate pies
Guest
It is indeed an exciting season at the top. The flipside to that, of course is that the bottom 4 sides have won only 6 games out of 44 (13.6%). When the bottom four are so inept there are quite often 3 or 4 games (almost half) that are completely lopsided. The standard of the bottom 4 teams is also quite often below AFL level. This is even worse when you only factor in the bottom 3 teams, who have won only 3 games between them out of 33 (9%).