Half of the 2016 AFL season is in the book, so with just 99 games of home-and-away football ahead, who is set to rise, and who is set to fall, as we stampede towards September?
This is a follow-up column to my annual look at the league by the numbers ahead of the season.
As a reminder, what we’re doing here is putting on our Spock ears and being cold and calculating – and perhaps a little callous at various points.
The numbers presented in the tables below are the unspoken truths of professional Australian rules football; you can only outperform the math for so long.
So without delay, here is a look at the teams set to rise, and the teams set to fall, in the second half of 2016, by the numbers.
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Pythagorean wins
First cab off the rank is my old favourite: Pythagorean wins. These numbers look at what would happen if a team were to be assigned wins based solely on its offensive and defensive abilities. It is an excellent indicator of whether teams are on short-run bursts or are more sustainably ‘good’.
With that in mind, look away now Carlton and North Melbourne fans.
| Wins | Pythag wins | Difference | |
| Adelaide | 7.0 | 8.1 | -1.1 |
| Brisbane | 1.0 | 1.1 | -0.1 |
| Carlton | 6.0 | 3.6 | 2.4 |
| Collingwood | 4.0 | 3.7 | 0.3 |
| Essendon | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| Fremantle | 1.0 | 2.5 | -1.5 |
| Geelong | 8.0 | 8.8 | -0.8 |
| Gold Coast | 3.0 | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| GWS | 7.0 | 8.5 | -1.5 |
| Hawthorn | 8.0 | 6.3 | 1.7 |
| Melbourne | 5.0 | 5.9 | -0.9 |
| North Melbourne | 10.0 | 8.3 | 1.7 |
| Port Adelaide | 5.0 | 6.6 | -1.6 |
| Richmond | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 |
| StKilda | 4.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 |
| Sydney | 9.0 | 9.1 | -0.1 |
| WCE | 7.0 | 8.4 | -1.4 |
| Western Bulldogs | 8.0 | 8.3 | -0.3 |
North Melbourne knockers, here is the number you’ve been looking for. Sort of.
The Roos have outperformed their Pythagorean expected wins tally by 1.7 wins so far this year – a 10-1 record would likely be an 8-3 record if the season was played over and over and over again. The good news though, is that despite their outperformance, North have still managed to accumulate the fifth-most Pythagorean wins in the first 11 games of the year.
Another team that has outperformed is Hawthorn, who have only earned themselves 6.3 wins to start the year – 1.7 more than their 8-3 record. This is an unfamiliar position for the Hawks, who last year underperformed their tally by 3.4 despite a 16-6 record. Indeed, they actually sit ninth on the total Pythagorean wins leader board, with Port Adelaide (currently ninth on the league ladder) inside the top eight. Should Hawks fans be starting to get a little nervous about their team’s chances?
There’s a common reason the Hawks and Roos have managed to outperform their Pythagorean wins so far, though, which we’ll get to in a moment.
Another team that has significantly outperformed is Gold Coast, whose 3-0, 0-8 start is more in keeping with a team that should be on between one and two wins (1.7) for the year. Projected forward, it suggests the Suns might not win a game for the rest of 2016. Ouch.
But the biggest outperformer of all are my dear friends at Carlton, who are a whopping 2.4 wins above their Pythagorean total in the first 11 rounds of the year. Their 6-5 record would be something closer to 4-7, or even as low as 3-8, if we replayed the first half of 2016 again.
Still, Carlton are the 12th best team in the league on this metric, which is significantly better than they were almost universally predicted to be this season. It does point to a difficult second half of the year for them, and doubly so given their schedule gets a bit tougher too.
I’m planning on spending plenty of time with the Blues next week, to try and unpack what’s made them such a surprise packet to start the year. As Cam Rose and I discuss on this week’s Roar AFL Podcast, there are up to four finals-shaping games this weekend that’ll command attention.
There’s also been a number of underperformers, although almost all of them to a lesser extent than the four teams above have outperformed their potential in the first half of the year.
Chief among these are Port Adelaide, who’ve rediscovered their mojo and earned themselves a handy 6.6 Pythagorean wins to start the year. That’s 1.6 more than their actual win total of five, and is largely driven by their improvement over the last four weeks.
Port have delivered the third-best Offensive Efficiency Rating in the league in the past four weeks, and their defence has tightened up significantly. Indeed, their total Efficiency Rating is third in the competition, behind West Coast – who funnily enough beat Port in this stretch – and Adelaide.
They’re behind the ledger now, though, and it’ll be tough to make it into September given they’ve already amassed six losses. Still, it’s not impossible, and a team that looked at risk of outright collapse six weeks into the year is looking far more steady at the halfway mark.
Fremantle, Greater Western Sydney and West Coast have all underperformed their Pyathagorean win total to start the year by a similar mark. The Dockers are still a bottom-four team on this measure, but they’re about a win better than the clear three worst sides in Essendon (0.9 Pythagorean wins), Brisbane (1.1) and Gold Coast (1.7). Greater Western Sydney and West Coast’s underperformance is almost certainly to do with their respective home-and-away records – both sides have run the slate at home, and been more middling when travelling.
Close wins and losses
There have been just 17 games decided by 12 points or less so far this year, which if maintained in the second half of the year would be the fewest (34) close games since at least the turn of the century (the point at which I cut most of my numbers off). Last year there were 43 games over the course of the season, and the year before that a remarkable 52 games – or more than a quarter of the season – were decided by two straight kicks or less.
That’s important, because it means that we’re potentially in for more of them in the second half of the year, and the fact there hasn’t been a lot of close games means the influence of this on a team’s record is somewhat limited.
As a reminder, almost every side in professional team sports around the world have a roughly 50-50 split of close wins and close losses over the long run; the AFL is no exception. So if a team is winning a heap of its close games, then the Angel of Mean Regression lurks just around the corner.
Who’s winning the close games so far this year?
| Close Wins | Close Games | Difference | |
| Adelaide | 1.0 | 3.0 | -0.5 |
| Brisbane | 0.0 | 1.0 | -0.5 |
| Carlton | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.5 |
| Collingwood | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| Essendon | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Fremantle | 0.0 | 1.0 | -0.5 |
| Geelong | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| Gold Coast | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| GWS | 0.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| Hawthorn | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 |
| Melbourne | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 |
| North Melbourne | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 |
| Port Adelaide | 0.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| Richmond | 2.0 | 3.0 | 0.5 |
| StKilda | 0.0 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| Sydney | 1.0 | 3.0 | -0.5 |
| WCE | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 |
| Western Bulldogs | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 |
The Hawks and North have won a disproportionate number of close games, each with a 100 per cent record in the three close encounters they’ve partaken in. As above, that goes a long way to explaining how they’ve outperformed their Pythagorean expected wins in their first 11.
You can’t take wins off the board, and so that both sides have managed to sneak home more frequently than you’d expect on average means they’ve banked those extra six points.
For the Hawks, that will come in handy as they chase a top-four spot – the last time they didn’t make the top four was 2010 – in their final 11 games. And for North, well it means that as they face what is by far the toughest schedule in the second half of the year, they’ve also got those extra couple of wins in their back pocket.
The rest of these numbers are quite bland. The Giants have lost both of their close games (both away from home, too), Gold Coast and Essendon are yet to play in a close game, and those freaking Geelong Cats have kept their impossible streak of close games alive – they’ve not lost a close one since Round 7, 2014 which is more than two years ago, people.
Hey, I said most teams can’t fight off the maths forever.
Blow out wins and losses
Teams that are able to consistently blow out their opponents – win games by the AFL average margin plus one standard deviation – tend to be the best teams. The same logic applies in reverse – if you regularly get the snot kicked out of you, you’re not very good at football on average, too.
For example, last year Hawthorn and West Coast had the most blowout wins, at six and five respectively, and failed to be blown out at all during the home-and-away season. By contrast, Brisbane and Carlton, who finished 17th and 18th, were blown out six times each, and didn’t smash anyone. The average over a full season is two of each per team.
What’s remarkable about this year is that a number of teams are already well on their way to eclipsing their full season marks from the year prior.
| Blow-out wins | Blow-out losses | |
| Adelaide | 2 | 0 |
| Brisbane | 0 | 5 |
| Carlton | 0 | 1 |
| Collingwood | 2 | 3 |
| Essendon | 0 | 5 |
| Fremantle | 1 | 1 |
| Geelong | 2 | 0 |
| Gold Coast | 1 | 5 |
| GWS | 3 | 0 |
| Hawthorn | 0 | 1 |
| Melbourne | 2 | 0 |
| North Melbourne | 2 | 0 |
| Port Adelaide | 3 | 1 |
| Richmond | 0 | 2 |
| StKilda | 0 | 2 |
| Sydney | 2 | 0 |
| WCE | 5 | 0 |
| Western Bulldogs | 1 | 0 |
You’re reading that right: Brisbane, Essendon and Gold Coast have already been blown out five times in their 11 games. West Coast, by contrast, have already blown their opponents out five times – in all but one of their games at Subiaco, they’ve beaten their opponent by ten goals or more.
The other team well on their way to a very strong year of demolition jobs are the Giants, who’ve destroyed three opponents (Hawthorn, Port Adelaide and Gold Coast) in the first half. Like the Eagles, they’ve all come at home, as have 23 of the 26 Mortal Kombat fatalities executed so far.
Schedule change
Finally, here’s a view on how each team’s run home looks at a high level. This table shows how a team’s average opponent Pythagorean win percentage from the first half of the year compares to the second half – it’s a way of showing how the strength of a slate looks on the run home, relative to what a team has seen up to this point.
It’s better than looking at actual wins and losses, for the same reason that Pythagorean win totals are better than actual wins when we’re projecting forwards.
So who has the best run home?
| First half | Second half | Difference | |
| Adelaide | 54.8% | 48.1% | -12.2% |
| Brisbane | 58.5% | 45.7% | -21.9% |
| Carlton | 44.6% | 48.2% | 8.0% |
| Collingwood | 48.7% | 53.4% | 9.8% |
| Essendon | 46.6% | 50.4% | 8.0% |
| Fremantle | 49.8% | 58.0% | 16.5% |
| Geelong | 47.4% | 48.4% | 2.1% |
| Gold Coast | 53.9% | 41.3% | -23.4% |
| GWS | 57.3% | 40.5% | -29.4% |
| Hawthorn | 55.3% | 49.2% | -10.9% |
| Melbourne | 42.6% | 51.3% | 20.5% |
| North Melbourne | 39.1% | 64.0% | 63.5% |
| Port Adelaide | 45.5% | 51.9% | 14.0% |
| Richmond | 52.5% | 48.0% | -8.6% |
| StKilda | 55.8% | 44.9% | -19.7% |
| Sydney | 44.3% | 53.8% | 21.4% |
| WCE | 44.9% | 47.1% | 4.9% |
| Western Bulldogs | 49.2% | 46.7% | -5.0% |
It’s the Giants, who play opponents with an average winning percentage of just 40.5 per cent – by far the lowest of the current top eight. Greater Western Sydney face Sydney this weekend – in what might be a match between the two best sides in the competition, more on that in a moment – but then they face the following:
Essendon (A)
Carlton (H)
Collingwood (H)
Brisbane (A)
Port Adelaide (A)
Richmond (H)
Gold Coast (A)
West Coast Eagles (H)
Fremantle (H)
North Melbourne (A)
Given North Melbourne will probably rest half of their side in Round 23, I mean, do they lose any of those games? Port Adelaide away looks tough again all of a sudden, but otherwise the Giants play against what are ostensibly seven of the eight worst sides in the competition.
Let’s give them all of those seven, and two points for each of the more difficult-to-call games against Sydney, Port Adelaide and North. That takes the Giants to 62 points, which given the evenness of this season at the pointy end is almost certainly enough for a top-four finish.
The Giants are coming, everyone.
North Melbourne, by contrast, can be expected to see a huge lift in their schedule difficulty in the second half of the year. The Roos played a schedule as powder-puff as the Giants have on the run home, but will face an average winning percentage of 64 per cent in their last 11. That’s gigantic. Fortunately, as we’ve learnt, North banking ten wins is going to help them hang on for dear life as regression kicks in.
The going is also going to get tough for Fremantle, who’ve got another derby and match-ups against Geelong, Sydney, the Giants and the Dogs to come.
Speaking of the Dogs, their run home is looking quite nice, particularly in the final four weeks of the year (three games at Etihad, and North as their only top-eight match-up). They’ll be primed for an assault on the flag.
That’ll do for now. There’s plenty of information here, and we’ve only scratched the surface of it. Let’s continue the discussion in the comments.
To finish, I present to you the final strength of schedule ladder for the first half of the year. This table looks at how a team has performed, and adjusts their scoring and ability to stop sides scoring for the strength or otherwise of their opponents.
Where the unadjusted percentage ladder suggests there’s a logjam of teams with a percentage of between 125 – which is very good – and 135, when adjusted for schedule strength, there’s a clear leader.
| Straight percentage | Adjusted percentage | |
| GWS | 133.3% | 146.1% |
| Adelaide | 127.1% | 140.3% |
| Sydney | 146.5% | 136.7% |
| Geelong | 138.8% | 136.5% |
| Western Bulldogs | 132.0% | 131.4% |
| WCE | 133.0% | 129.4% |
| North Melbourne | 130.8% | 121.4% |
| Hawthorn | 108.9% | 120.9% |
| Port Adelaide | 111.7% | 113.0% |
| Melbourne | 105.1% | 101.7% |
| StKilda | 82.8% | 91.6% |
| Collingwood | 87.3% | 88.4% |
| Richmond | 81.8% | 87.0% |
| Carlton | 86.2% | 83.9% |
| Fremantle | 77.1% | 78.8% |
| Gold Coast | 69.6% | 67.8% |
| Brisbane | 62.4% | 59.7% |
| Essendon | 57.6% | 51.0% |
It means this weekend’s Sunday twilight game can be called a top-of-the-table clash, and the stakes are certainly worthy of that status. The Battle of the Bridge headlines a superb weekend of football, with plenty on the line across the weekend – both at the top and near the bottom.
What a way to start the second half of the season.
Sammy
Guest
@macca. adelaide has just put away one of the 2 games they were not predicted to win by beating west coast in perth. I suppose the hardest stats to refute are wins on the board against teams that are also in the top 8..do you think adelaide wont be favorites against north in a fortnight at adelaide oval or against west coast in adelaide later in the season. I think your hypothetical argument was a really poor one as you picked the wrong team to try an mount an argument against. Anyone can say that a win is possible against anyone..however to make an informed opinion as to why you think a result or set of results will happen you refer to relevant statistics such as offence, defence, teams played and where they are played etc etc. Adelaide's trend is upwards not downwards and the chances of them winning 14+ games is infinitely more than them not..based on all relevant statistics available. But hope on as hope is good..but i think..no..knowthatit wont be adelaide scrapping for 8th spot with carlton..end of
Macca
Guest
Sammy "you still think..in your words..that if Carlton beat Adelaide they are most certainly a possibility to take Adelaide’s place in the 8..that my friend is delusional." - "certainly a possibility"? really? do you know what the meaning of possibility is? If Carlton beat Adelaide there is absolutely uncategorically a possibility that Carlton will replace Adelaide in the finals - that possibility might be remote but it is still a possibility - a fact that you yourself agree with - " But hey I’ll give it to you that you could be right and all the cards fall the way you have stated" How is it delusional to state what is indisputable fact? "I have tried to inform you of Adelaide’s form in their run so far, their run home, the fact that they have scored more than anyone else and now play more lower ranked teams, have a top 8 defence etc etc " but this is what you fail to comprehend - you haven't offered any proff that it is impossible for Carlton to replace Adelaide - you have offered evidence as to why you believe it is unlikely but I agree with you it is unlikely - I am only arguing it IS possible - and until you can prove it is impossible I will always be right. "Oh and also you just told me not to look at bookmakers stats and you use one to try and make a point..the irony is amazing" Where exactly have I a) told you not to look at bookmakers "stats" and b) used one myself? The only stat I have used is from Champion data who is not a bookmaker!
sammy
Guest
@macca your whole argument is based on wild assumptions - not backed up by statistics, form or whatever. You say that If carlton beat Adelaide then there is certainly a possibility of Carlton taking Adelaide's spot in the 8... I have tried to inform you of Adelaide's form in their run so far, their run home, the fact that they have scored more than anyone else and now play more lower ranked teams, have a top 8 defence etc etc and you still think..in your words..that if Carlton beat Adelaide they are most certainly a possibility to take Adelaide's place in the 8..that my friend is delusional.. Oh and also you just told me not to look at bookmakers stats and you use one to try and make a point..the irony is amazing
Macca
Guest
Sammy - I don't need all the cards to fall my way to be right because I am not saying the blues WILL make the finals (this is where your lack of comprehension is hurting you) I am saying it is POSSIBLE which means I am right as soon as you say " you could be right". "but in reality there is as much chance of that happening as the sun rising in the west and setting in the east." Is there an 11% chance the earth will reverse its rotation!! That is serious you should warn someone!
sammy
Guest
@macca 'you really do struggle with comprehension don't you'....wow... Lamby was right - refer to his opening sentence in his post above. But hey I'll give it to you that you could be right and all the cards fall the way you have stated...but in reality there is as much chance of that happening as the sun rising in the west and setting in the east.
Macca
Guest
Sammy – ” I have been pointing out how far fetched your assumptions are.. backed it up with statistics, form, bookmakers calls and you still somehow want to live on a far fetched hypothetical.” You really do str uggle with comprehension don’t you – I have said I don’t expect the blues to make the finals, I have pointed to champion data saying the blues have an 11% chance – I am not for one moment saying this is a certainty or even a probability just a possibility – and IF the blues beat Adelaide it is most certainly a possibility. “Why not look at West Coast and make your same argu ments” I could make the exact same argu ments about West Coast – but it wasn’t me who raised Adelaide – it was Carl Spac kler – I just agreed it was a possibility.
Macca
Guest
Sammy - " I have been pointing out how far fetched your assumptions are.. backed it up with statistics, form, bookmakers calls and you still somehow want to live on a far fetched hypothetical." You really do struggle with comprehension don't you - I have said I don't expect the blues to make the finals, I have pointed to champion data saying the blues have an 11% chance - I am not for one moment saying this is a certainty or even a probability just a possibility - and IF the blues beat Adelaide it is most certainly a possibility. "Why not look at West Coast and make your same arguments" I could make the exact same arguments about West Coast - but it wasn't me who raised Adelaide - it was Carl Spackler - I just agreed it was a possibility.
sammy
Guest
@macca. I have been pointing out how far fetched your assumptions are.. backed it up with statistics, form, bookmakers calls and you still somehow want to live on a far fetched hypothetical. Why not look at West Coast and make your same arguments - considering their form outside of Perth is dismal or GWS. Or how about if Carlton drop the games they are not favorites in, they have more chance of finishing bottom 4 than anywhere near the top 8. I have said time and time again that Adelaide might lose those games you speak of, but form , statistics, home ground advantage when playing the tougher sides all point in a very different direction. So I would suggest you quit as it is looking very silly
Macca
Guest
FFS Sammy – are you deliberately trying to be a complete kn 0b? Is it really your argument that is isn’t possible for Adelaide to lose to North? Are you really saying that if Adelaide is in poor enough form to lose to the blues that they still could not possibly lose to North (regardless of whether they played just before or just after)? Are you really saying that if Adelaide lose to Carlton there is still no possibility of Carlton getting above Adelaide? I have said repeatedly I don’t expect Carlton to play finals and that I expect Adelaide will – but I am not denying the possibility – especially if the blues beat Adelaide. If you seriously can’t acknowledge that possibility you have serious issues. And for the record – those odds aren’t far enough apart 3 weeks out to make definitive statements about favouritism – they are favourites now but who knows by then anything is POSSIBLE!
Macca
Guest
3
sammy
Guest
@macca...let it go mate..let it go...and for the record, by the time Adelaide play carlton we will know who the result of the Adelaide v north game as it would have already been played - so as it stands Adelaide will be faviorites going into that game...so say the bookmakers Adelaide Crows $1.67 | Line -6.5 ($1.91) | 1-39 ($2.20) | 40+ ($5.60) North Melbourne $2.20 | Line +6.5 ($1.91) | 1-39 ($2.70) | 40+ ($10)
Macca
Guest
Again Sammy - look at what I am saying. I am not saying they WILL drop games left right and centre - just that it is POSSIBLE given they have 4 games against sides currently higher on the ladder plus Port (which you describe as a 50/50) that if they don't beat Carlton they might miss the 8. And for future reference "those in the know" and the members of the Footy Show panel are 2 separate things.
sammy
Guest
@macca seemed like last nights footy panel was also split as to who will win in perth this week with a fairly even split for west coast and Adelaide...it does not sound like Adelaide are a team people in the know think will be dropping games left right and centre.This on paper is also one of the 2 remaining games Adelaide wouldn't start favorites in
Macca
Guest
Sammy - for Christ sake read what I am saying " ” IF Carlton beat Adelaide – if that happened they wouldn’t go in favourites against Wet Coast or North” - see those first 4 words of the quote!! Adeliades win 18 months ago against North is not enough to make them favourites against North in Adleaide not matter what the circumstances and on top of that even if they are favourites that does not guarantee them a win which means my assertion that "SO in short I don’t expect Carlton to make finals, Adelaide are more than likely to make finals but IF Adelaide don’t beat Carlton it is entirely possible that the blues make it and Adelaide don’t." is plausible. Also note the words "entirely possible" it doesn't mean a certainty or even a probability - just a possibility!
Sammy
Guest
@macca You are not making sense with your insistance on adelaide's position. My point was that the last time the kangaroos played adelaide in adelaide they got belted. They then just beat adelaide in melbourne. So to somehow say that adelaide are not favorites back at adelaide oval is mystifying. And your whole argument about carlton beating adelaide then adelaide losing to this team and that team is hypothetical and you could also say sydney might lose every game from hereon and finish outside the top 8 or goldcoast might win every game from now and make the top 8. But based on form and statistics and where games are being played and who against you are drawing the longest of longbows to even suggest adelaide and carlton will be fighting for 8th place
Macca
Guest
Lamby/Sammy - " I think you are delusional. Carlton have had 1 good/upset win in 3 years and you think they can make the finals?" No I have actually stated that I don't think they will make finals when I said "I don’t expect the blues will make the finals". What I am saying is that IF Adelaide lose to Carlton "I wouldn't confidently call Adelaide with 14+ wins" because " IF Carlton beat Adelaide – if that happened they wouldn’t go in favourites against Wet Coast or North" and " it isn’t completely out of the question to see them winning their last 4 games and picking up a win against Collingwood which would take them to 12 – which would probably mean Carl’s point about Adelaide or Carlton for 8th comes down to their game in Melbourne." I also said "As an aside I just read Champion data have the blues an 11% chance of making finals". SO in short I don't expect Carlton to make finals, Adelaide are more than likely to make finals but IF Adelaide don't beat Carlton it is entirely possible that the blues make it and Adelaide don't. Finally - " last year at Adelaide oval Adelaide beat north by 77 points…IN ADELAIDE." Glad you cleared up it wasn't the Adelaide Oval in Melbourne but that was "last year" round 1 last year (a round where a lot of strange results are thrown up) - last year Carlton lost to Geelong at Etihad by 77 points - what happened this year?
Lamby
Roar Rookie
@Macca - I think you are delusional. Carlton have had 1 good/upset win in 3 years and you think they can make the finals? You think a side that lost to the Gold Coast and has 86% can win another 7 games? Have you won 7 games in the last 3 years? Go back and read the article. It is rating a team on percentage - and Carlton have one of the worst - even though you have had one of the easiest draws. Your adjusted % is only 84% - which means you are still a rubbish team. The bookies only have you winning against St Kilda by 10 points - even though they have no fit key position backs. The bookies currently have the Crows to beat the Blues in Melbourne by 39+ points. Yes, you have improved! But to say you can make the finals is delusional.
sammy
Guest
@macca and last year at Adelaide oval Adelaide beat north by 77 points...IN ADELAIDE. So based on that theory there is no way you would expect North to come to Adelaide and win. You are totally discounting the home ground advantage which the likes of David King, Robbo and the other commentators acknowledge is a massive advantage for Adelaide. But lets look at Carlton and who they have beaten.. Fremantle, Essendon, Collingwood port and geelong. The only win of note was geelong as the other teams have been getting beat most weeks by everyone. In Carlton's losses they have been belted by Sydney, Gold Coast, Western Bulldogs and North Melbourne....they didn't even get close. Adelaide are 2 from 6 but were a minute away in 2 of those games from being 4 and 6 - away from home (very close losses to top 8 sides). Also, with Adelaide's draw being hardest in the first 8 rounds, they are nearly 100 points scored better than the next highest scoring team which shows they can score heavily against anyone. Adelaide's defence is also ranked the 8th best in points conceded. So with the leagues best attack as acknowledged by all and a top 8 defence AND a simpler draw in the last half of the season, they are only going up the ladder. You should be happy with Carlton's progress this year as they appear to be well coached and have give supporters hope of a brighter future. However they are not in the same category as Adelaide as yet who are ..as acknowledged by all football experts.. a genuine flag threat this year
Macca
Guest
Sammy - look at the teams Adelaide have beaten and who they have lost to - against top 8 sides they are 2 from 6 while they are 5 from 5 against teams outside the 8 - they have beaten just 1 side who has won more games than them and 4 of their 7 wins come against sides currently sitting between 13 and 16 on the ladder. None of that would have me confident they will win more than 12 games If they lose to Carlton. And North BEAT Adelaide - beat is the key word in that
sammy
Guest
@macca - you have missed the point here. Adelaide is the wrong team to be comparing with Carlton for a spot in the 8 as their trend is upwards not downwards. As for north being favorites because they have won 10 games to Adelaide's 7, it is not the best way to view it as the 2 teams have already played each other once this season and the kangaroos at home just..JUST beat Adelaide. Now they have to come to Adelaide Oval where the crows enjoy a good home ground advantage which in most scribes books would be enough to feel confident of reversing a 10 point loss. As for losing to Carlton, as I have mentioned stranger things have happened, but Carlton may lose to st Kilda, and hawthorn may lose to port Adelaide and Sydney may lose to Melbourne..ifs butts and candy nuts. I think you need to be comparing Carlton some other team in the 8 - one that they have more chance of not only beating but overtaking.