2016 is shaping as the tightest race in recent AFL memory, at least at the top end of the ladder.
While the bottom three team in Brisbane, Fremantle and Essendon have been putrid and the middle of the ladder contains equal parts mediocrity and over-achievement, the top eight contains quality at every turn.
Despite North Melbourne topping the ladder and Hawthorn being the three-time defending champion, major betting markets have the Sydney Swans as the flag favourites. So should that be the case? Let’s check the tale of the tape and see whether they deserve the tag of premiership favourite across a number of key areas.
Record against top eight teams
Each of the top eight teams have played between three and six games against fellow, current finalists. The Swans have the equal best record against fellow top eight teams having defeated GWS, West Coast, North Melbourne and Hawthorn while losing a close contest to Adelaide.
They share a 4-1 record with Geelong, Norths are 2-1 and no other team has a winning record against fellow finals aspirants (the Bulldogs are 2-3, Hawthorn 3-3, West Coast 0-4, GWS 3-3 and Adelaide 2-4). The Swans have proven their worth with wins both at home and away against these teams, conceding just 59 points a game in their four wins.
Statistical analysis
The old saying is that statistics can tell you anything and it is normally true.
Case in point – the Swans control the ball in all facets of the game and that has translated to success. They rank third in total disposal differential, second in contested possession differential and fifth in uncontested disposal differential. They rank fifth in inside 50 differential and when they go inside they rank third in marks inside 50 differential.
Interestingly, they rank second last in effective disposal efficiency, which may say more about the value of that particular statistic than how ‘well’ the Swans do it, especially given Carlton rank third, Essendon fifth and Richmond eighth.
Champion Data’s “hot plot” is based on the premise that teams need to score in excess of 100 points and concede less than 86 points in order to be a premiership team; 16 of the last 17 AFL premiers have done the former and 15 of 17 have done the latter, so it stands up through the many changes in game styles throughout this era. The graph following Round 11 shows Sydney quite clearly deserving of their spot near the top end of the ladder.
The five teams regarded as being premiership standard are in the top eight, with the Swans having the best percentage.
Personnel
Of the top 20 disposal getters in the league, the Swans have four – Dan Hannebery (second), Josh Kennedy (sixth), Tom Mitchell (16th) and Luke Parker (19th). Those same four players rank within the top 12 in handballs, which reflects the Swans’ game style around the middle of the ground.
When you add Jarrad McVeigh, Kieran Jack and Jake Lloyd to that star quartet then you will back the Swans to get the ball out of the middle in most situations.
When they kick it forward, the ball normally goes towards Lance Franklin. A few weeks back, it was seen as newsworthy that the ball goes to ‘Buddy’ more often than any other player in the league.
This is hardly a ground-breaking strategy. Franklin not only ranks first in the Coleman Medal race with 41 goals in 11 games, but he ranks second in inside 50s and fifth in marks inside 50. When you kick like a mule from 60 metres as he does, the inside 50 statistics are cream on the cake.
Franklin has been ably supported by Isaac Heeney, with the second year star kicking a goal and a half a game, but perhaps more important to Sydney’s success has been the improvement of Kurt Tippett.
The former Adelaide Crow is in career-best form. He ranks sixth in total hit-outs and eighth in hit-outs per game and is tallying career-high numbers for both disposals and tackles. He’s also kicked 15 goals. If Tippett can continue with his consistent form, the Swans look all the more menacing.
As has been the case for most of this generation, Sydney’s defence is full of players who seem like they are vulnerable if separated and simply do not evoke fear or excitement on paper, but they continue to produce at an elite level.
They have not ranked below sixth in fewest points conceded since 2009. They ranked first in three seasons during that time and are only marginally behind the top-ranked Western Bulldogs in 2016.
Dane Rampe has developed his game to rank second in rebound 50s per game, also ranking in the top 20 for one-percenters. Nick Smith, Jeremy Laidler, Heath Grundy and Ted Richards contribute to a defence that does what it needs to do when it needs to be done.
Plenty has been said about the New South Wales academy privileges given to the Swans, and they have done very well to secure Callum Mills, Dan Robinson and Heeney via those means.
However, let’s not forget they have drafted very shrewdly in getting Tom Papley via the rookie draft and George Hewett in the second round of the draft. All five young players are an integral part of Sydney’s current team and add a degree of freshness to what is largely a dour, hard-working team.
The run home
Sitting in second place one game and percentage clear of the chasing pack, the Swans have six of their last 11 games at the fortress that is the SCG.
While the next five games sees them play fellow top eight aspirants GWS, Hawthorn, Geelong and the Western Bulldogs, they face just one top eight sides in their last six games, that being North Melbourne in Round 22.
Compare that to the Kangaroos, who face all other top eight teams in the last 11 rounds including Hawthorn twice, and it would be surprising if the Swans didn’t finish above them come the end of the season.
The Swans have won at least 13 games in every season under John Longmire since he took over the head coaching reigns in 2011 and this may be the most balanced and talented team he has ever had.
Given their consistency and strong home form, it would be a shock if they didn’t finish in the top two. While Hawthorn have earned the respect that comes with being a three-time premier and Geelong are also strong contenders, the remainder of the top eight have their flaws and don’t seem likely to challenge for the flag this season.
It may well be time for Sydney, who are deserved premiership favourites at half-time in the 2016 AFL season.
Stephen
Guest
I think all states can tend to be a bit parochial in the way they support their own. I can recognize it when I hear South Australian Commentators referring to the home side as "We". I haven't meant anything that I have said to be bagging Sydney. I do however feel that some respondents have been dismissive of the relative merits of other teams in the mix. It is always a mistake to underrate the opposition as it can bite you. And.....If you are so interested, I support North Melbourne and certainly did read that North did not stand a chance against the Swans in last year's final series.
michael RVC
Roar Pro
Hey Stewart, have you read the comments about the Eagles/2006 today?
michael RVC
Roar Pro
Stewart, tedious you say? Pot kettle? Have a think about the 30 years of anti interstate garbage we've heard from Vic and no sign of abating yet. And don't blame all that on Eddie alone, it's bandwagon central in Melbourne when an opportunity comes up to deride those teams. I thought my response to Stephen had some merit, you may not agree. I think his (only) point about the MCG has some merit also, but obviously I believe his motives fall into the above category. Wonder who Stephen's team is? Anyway, enjoy the train home.
Stewart
Guest
I figured that fair points had been made by both Stephen and Michael H above and thought we could all agree to disagree and was going to leave it at that, but your comment RVC, needs a response. I'm Melbourne born and raised and currently sitting on a train in South Yarra. That whole anti-Victorian garbage is tedious.
michael RVC
Roar Pro
Here we have Stephen's silly, desperate anti Swans rant.............just one of zillions of folks in Victoria who would rather eat "crap" than hear an interstate team favoured for or win the GF. Um Stephen............just sayin'.
Stephen
Guest
I didn't say that having confidence in your own team is crap. Stewart's comment went further than that.......he was quite dismissive of the chances of other clubs and that is the sort of crap I saw on this site during last year's finals series.
Michael Huston
Guest
I've never understood the critiques about Sydney's defence. Yeah Teddy has looked older and more fragile as the years have gone on, and Heath Grundy isn't completely impenetrable. But name me one back-line in the history of the AFL that's been perfect, and that's had six or seven complete A-graders who are all All Australian-worthy. In an ideal world, we'd all just have a bunch of Matthew Scarletts in our back-line, but that's simply ridiculous to expect. I'd say Sydney have one of the next best back-lines if you look at it from a reality perspective.
Michael Huston
Guest
Sydney's game is fairly well suited to the MCG. We have the two-way running that actually works better at the MCG than our home ground the SCG. Plus our love affair of long bombing down the wing, then quick counter-attack through the corridor all suits the MCG. The reason many believe we aren't suited to the MCG is because of how we play at the SCG. Ironically, our weakness is that we probably play too often at home, so we get in the habit of playing the 'contested handballs through congestion' game that fits the smaller area of the SCG. It sounds bombastic, but I bet if the AFL halved the amount of SCG games the Swans played, and we had more games at grounds such as Etihad, MCG and Domain, we'd probably be a better team to what we are. Because if you go back and watch all of the Swans victories over the last few seasons, the best ones - where we've looked at our most comprehensive and firing on all cylinders - have been where we've done the best two-way running, long bombing and corridor counter-attacks. The test for Sydney isn't to be able to adjust their SCG game to the MCG; it's to simply produce the other side of their game that they've proven to be good at. It'll be interesting in the future to see if Longmire recognises that they have proven themselves to be capable of playing to the open expanses of the MCG, or if he tries to simply adapt their SCG model to the larger ground.
Michael Huston
Guest
No I didn't. I never pick the Swans to beat Richmond. We play woeful against the Tigers, and the Tigers always play their grand final against us. They're a laughable excuse for a team that they're so able to regularly produce their best against Sydney yet stumble whenever having to play the other sixteen teams. Anyone who actually paid attention to the Swans knows they probably will always lose against Richmond so long as John Longmire and Damien Hardwick are the respective coaches.
Michael Huston
Guest
I'm not sure what supporters you saw... It's been well recognised by many Swans fans (as was the case back in 2015) that for the large part of last year, we were pretenders who were light years behind Hawthorn and West Coast. I don't agree with all that Stewart says, as I think Sydney are also guilty of having glaring flaws that could derail our campaign. But it's not "crap" to have confidence in your team. From his perspective, he sees Sydney as being the best team thus far, and I happen to agree with him. Does it mean we'll win the flag? No.
Howie
Roar Pro
Yes the Swans are favourites but there is a fair way to go yet.
Stephen
Guest
Read what I have said.......Not bringing you down, but any even handed analysis must look at the record on the ground the game will be played on. You can't just cherry pick the stats that you want. Teams other than Hawthorn have a good track record at the MCG and some of those are in the running. Strikes me that it is YOU who is trying to put other teams down by dismissing their credentials to perform.
Stephen
Guest
I was surprised, I think most people were surprised. I certainly picked the Swans to win that game, didn't you?
Stewart
Guest
'They' may have dished up some crap, but I didn't and this isn't. And for all your crap about the MCG, the only team that Sydney might not go in as favourite against at the G is the Hawks. I know you are just looking for things to try to bring us down, but you are just clutching at straws.
the spectator
Guest
Weeeell. The won at the G in 2005 and 2012..........
Stephen
Guest
Swans supporters served up the same crap before last year's finals.
Stephen
Guest
When writing an article quoting all the stats that support a teams favouritism for winning the flag, it is important to consider their track record on the ground that it will be played..........Just saying.......THAT is a glaring omission.
Stephen
Guest
So that makes barely better than a 50-50 chance of winning a game at the MCG. Hardly inspiring given that it is home ground to Melbourne and Richmond who have not set the world on fire.
Stewart
Guest
Well done, Steven. I've found all the talk about how even the top 8 is and how there is no clear favourite to be wishful thinking. The Swans are clear standouts based on all measures combined and I agree with Kennelly's assessment that the Flag is theirs to lose. GWS aint winning a flag having never even played a final, let alone won one; the Hawks have too weak a bottom 6 and an old-looking top six; the Cats have an even worse bottom six; North, Bulldogs, WCE and Crows aren't going to challenge the Swans on the S or M CG. Thanks for throwing this out there.
Michael Huston
Guest
We've also been beaten by Richmond at the SCG and ANZ. For the love of god can we get over that game? There was nothing surprising about that at all.